FGV Holdings made a strong comeback with core earnings of RM424m for 9MFY21 after stripping out net impairment loss of financial assets (RM7.6m) and net unrealized FX gain (RM5.1m). The 9MFY21 results beat our and consensus full-year forecasts, making up 128% and 122%, respectively. The stronger-than-expected results were mainly led by stronger plantation earnings and a sharp increase in earnings contribution from jointly controlled entity. No dividend was declared for the quarter. In view of the stronger-than-expected results, we revise up our FY221-23F earnings forecasts by 54%-100% after imputing in higher profit margin for plantation segment. Consequently, we raise our SOP-based TP from RM1.59 to RM1.62. We also attach a 20% discount in our valuations in view of the prolonged measures taken to address its ESG concerns.
Topline driven by stronger plantation sales. The Group 3QFY21 sales rose 33% YoY to RM5.3bn contributed by plantation and logistics segments despite weaker sugar sales. Plantation sales jumped 41% YoY to RM4.6bn as realised CPO prices advanced RM2,645/mt to RM3,798/mt despite a 14% drop in CPO production. Meanwhile, 9MFY21 FFB production fell 10% YoY to 2.92m mt, translating into a lower FFB yield of 11.53mt/ha. OER was slightly higher at 20.35%. Meanwhile, sales contribution from 51%-owned sugar business dropped 7.7% YoY to RM548.7m, attributed to a 22% decline in sales volume due to prolonged lockdown and also partly due to annual planned maintenance. Meanwhile, logistics sales rose 4.9% YoY to RM83.5m, underpinned by improved contribution from bulking (+8%) segment, partially offset by weaker transport (-6% YoY) segment. 3QFY21 core earnings surged to RM401m. The Group saw its core earnings jumping from RM218m to RM401m. The plantation pre-tax profit doubled to RM481.2m. Sugar would have made a loss if not because of the gain from liquidation of excess raw sugar hedges amounting to RM30.9m. Earnings contribution from logistics segment rose 41% YoY to RM20.9m, attributed to higher bulking and transport earnings. Expecting foreign workers to arrive by end-1Q22. The Group, which is currently operating at 70% workforce, expects the first batch of the 7,000 foreign workers that it plans to hire to arrive by the end-1Q22 due to stricter Covid-19 compliance. It added that the impact on production would only be seen by 2Q 2022. Meanwhile, the site assessments by Elevate, which is the independent auditor appointed to assess the group’s operations against the 11 international Labour Organisation indicators of forced labour, is expected to commence in the 1H 2022. Lastly, the upstream plantation has completed 7,573ha of felling and replanted 521ha as at 3QFY21. Source: PublicInvest Research - 1 Dec 2021
I was under the impression that current 13% shareholding spread is 3% away to 90% Take-over offer. But if that is notntrue, then it is ok... I am not worried.
Sunshine The public shareholding is suppose to be 25% (i.e does not belong to Felda),so that there is enough liquidity. Due to the last takeover move by Felda their % is more than 75%. they were given 6 mths to bring it back down to 75%. They had a further extension till 3/02/22 to fix this problem. Personally, can't see them off-loading even though they picked up those @ 1.30 (hugh profit) from the takeover offer. It will cause a tsunami on this counter if they start unloading. Don't know how it is going to play out.
What is Felda planning? They are still buying on 29/11. Shouldn't they be bringing it back to 75% before they can do another offer. Also are those previous acceptance going to be compensated if they do off-load? Alot of questions to be answered, which is why Bursa shouldn't have given them the extension. Are they suppose to bring it back to 75% before they can do another offer?
Just stop trying to link the price of this to all those hype. I posted this back on 20/11.
"CPO prices, Sugar prices and what ever optimistic outlook in the world is not going to twitch a cent on FGV. It will go down or up to whatever FELDA wants. There is nothing anyone do can stop them if they want it down. Only thing you can be sure of, is it is not going below 1.30 in the next 2 months."
Insas has the very good earnings , best tech exposure & the best net cash per share margin of safety exposure exceeding its share per share of Rm 1.00 loh!
This unlike some of calvin weak pick of substandard weak palmoil stock which has poor balance sheet & high gearing mah!
Posted by calvintaneng > Dec 2, 2021 9:10 PM | Report Abuse
no. palm oil not the same with Tech palm oil has good real solid earnings
Insas has the very good earnings , best tech exposure & the best net cash per share margin of safety exposure exceeding its share per share of Rm 1.00 loh!
This unlike some of calvin weak pick of substandard weak palmoil stock which has poor balance sheet & high gearing mah!
Posted by calvintaneng > Dec 2, 2021 9:10 PM | Report Abuse
no. palm oil not the same with Tech palm oil has good real solid earnings
For this Quarter FGV record the highest growth compare to other companies listed in Bursa. FGV should be around RM 3 by now if not because of Felda Intervention..
We are now into the final month of the year 2021 - hope this year has been a good for everyone ...
I think this question is probably in the minds of many, "is the stock market going to see a year-end rally, and a good end to the year 2021?"
Personally, I feel that it will very much depend on how the new Covid-19 variant in Omicron develops (remember last Friday, when the news about this new variant broke out, the major Indexes fell by more than 1+%.)
If this newly discovered variant is found to be not as dangerous as initially feared, then chances are high that we'll see a bullish rally all the way into the new year 2022.
On the other hand, if the variant is found to be not only highly transmissible, but at the same time may result in serious illnesses or even death (after contracting it), and that the current vaccines do not offer a good protection against it, then we might see a bearish end to the current financial year.
The way i c 1. Felda will launch 2nd attempt to take FGV private When? - My guess: Max. 2 years after the closure of 1st offer - RECAP LTKM: Bursa securities disallowed extension of time after 2 years New offer price? - My guess: Probably not below highest price it paid for in open market - Felda will not succeed without acquiring fgv IPO stakes held by State Government of Pahang/Sabah, who had refused the 1st offer at 1.30 2. My game plan for fgv - be patient, prepare to hold > 1 year - buy low at dip, within my tolerable limit/allocated fund - let market determines its upside potential
Like I said, the only serious buyer is Felda, who by right if Bursa enforce it's rules shouldn't be buying but instead should be selling. Rules are meant to be broken!
3 Feb 2022 is drawing near. Felda must be desperate as its good day is numbered. i wish that Bursa Securities will reject its next application for extension of time.
Guess.. privatization coming soon.. Felda is keep buying. I think offer price at Rm1.60 to Rm 1.63 if the current price stand at Rm1.47 to Rm1.50. What do you think?
Unless new buyer think FGV value is more than the current share price. Who will buy. Felda can easily to privatize. Share price is not up eventhough huge profit for the latest report
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
strattegist
23,459 posts
Posted by strattegist > 2021-12-01 09:21 | Report Abuse
kebun sawit menghijau