DESPITE Matrix Concept Holding Bhd (Matrix’s) record high property sales at its two flagship projects, Bandar Sri Sendayan (BSS) in Seremban and Bandar Sri Impian (BSI) in
Kluang, AllianceDBS analysts gave a lower EPS forecast due to, “Our more conservative property sales and margin assumptions.”
The majority of Matrix’s launches are priced below the RM600,000 per unit mark, leveraging on the robust demand for affordable homes.
The sales momentum going forward is likely to remain on the uptrend, as Matrix still has a large pipeline of affordable homes which are ready for launch.
BSS remains the jewel in its crown given the low average land cost of RM7 psf (with infrastructure in place) when its affordably-priced properties are already selling at around RM200 psf, leading to significantly higher-than-average profit margins.
Analysts believe that this unrivalled competitive advantage will make Matrix the best proxy to pure township developments, which are set to outperform in this challenging market.
AllianceDBS also stated that timely launches of its projects in the Klang Valley will be critical for boosting its earnings growth.
A potential rating catalyst would be the new air force training base at BSS is scheduled for completion by end of 2018 which will then accommodate an additional estimated 3,000 population.
While Matrix’s dividend payout policy stands at 40%, a higher payout like FY18’s 45% could help re-rate its stock price.
Analysts maintain their Buy call with a higher TP of RM2.50, based on an unchanged 30% discount to our fully-diluted RNAV of RM3.56.
Matrix is currently trading at a bargain 6x FY19 PE despite sustainable earnings visibility and decent dividend yield of around 6.5% for this township developer and key risks to AllianceDBS’ view would be the rising household debt and softer consumer sentiment which may lead to lower property sales.
Anyone ever wonder, why the director always dispose a very tiny portion at the wrong time? They are not short of money, take profit is a joke since that disposable worth penny to them.
During Last Saturday Group dinner, Group Exe Deputy Chairman mentioned that the sales target of 1.2B had already achieved 2 months ahead of financial year 2018/19. While most other developing companies size down development next year, Matrix will maintain at least 1.2B sales target next financial year. This could means the dividend rate could maintain at least 6.6% at current price of 1.97
Besides huge population of TUDM will move in BSS this year. Coming project will be Central Business District covering 46Ha in BSS which will have gross development value of RM4bil. This Mega project will include hospitality, commercial, shopping malls, 400 beds Medical centre, Residential and a convention centre. Necessary approvals already obtained and now in talks with interested parties which target to announce this year.
@martinbartesque Can't just calculate the sales from this quarter as a lot of them would still be unbilled. But nonetheless looking at the historical high unbilled sales last quarter, coming few quarters EPS and revenue should grow at a good pace. Factor in multiple new projects and mega JV projects at multiple location/country, current price is extremely undervalued.
Didn't notice he used the term 'revenue' instead of 'sales'. But the 1.2b target was sales target instead of revenue target mentioned several times in previous QR. If it is really revenue as per what he said then coming QR EPS will break historical high by big margin.
Current financial year 1H is at 483mil revenue. Current achieved revenue 1.2b - recognized revenue 483m = 717m. Unbilled sales since 1 year ago stood at around 1.1b - 1.2b. Last quarter was at 1.4b. Meaning, even if the achieved revenue 1.2b is not fully recognized in coming quarters, the previous unbilled sales will cover.
Coming few QRs should easily break historical high, might even be consecutively.
@LouiseS EPS seems dropping only because Matrix gave out bonus shares 3 times over last 5 years. Analyse EPS trend without considering capital changes of shares is very wrong. Contrary to your analysis, Matrix has achieved historical highest earning in the past 4 quarters compared to any financial year since listed. Its revenue and profit growth has been very consistently increase over all these years, and might grow significantly in the coming few quarters due to very high unbilled sales at the moment and government effort to boost property market.
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SHQuah
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Posted by SHQuah > 2018-12-02 10:23 | Report Abuse
Monday technical rebound.