Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-03-28 01:16 | Report Abuse

US kept adding oil rigs and this is causing oil prices to drop further

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2017-03-28 01:24 | Report Abuse

whatever the case, 1) the asset writedowns cane be reversed in future, 2) worst is over, 3) PNB and Petronas will "take care" of omwog.... after this merger de-merger exericse, omwog will be going for rights issue.... if you are a shareholder who has already pumped in funds, are you willing to pump in more? UMW found an easy way out how surprising.... sell at zero cost and give shares on O&G outfit to shareholders... really funny deal if u ask me

Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-03-28 01:35 | Report Abuse

the deal is just to take money from the market to pay debts nothing else...and the worst is not over as oil prices will go lower very soon..

Posted by offshore > 2017-03-28 11:56 | Report Abuse

Before we even talk about impairment reversal, is the impairment even adequate at the first place? Why there is a big impairment hit in FY16 when the downturn happen so long ago? Try doing a ball park analysis to check whether the assets are still overvalued by comparing against a brand new rig waiting for job at the ship yard which is now only costing USD155m. You can get this info in the internet. Take note that some of their rigs were bought with the cost above USD200m. Refer to their announcement dated 6/2/14 and 12/2/14.

Not sure about PNB. There is a limit on how much Petronas can take care of them. Even if Petronas can award all their rigs with a contract, is the contract value sufficient for them to breakeven due to their high entry cost? I don't have the answer but we can pose them during the upcoming AGM.

Posted by mikeann > 2017-03-28 19:14 | Report Abuse

Grossly oversold. Rebound imminent

Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-03-28 23:09 | Report Abuse

grossly oversold can also mean gap down if things turn bad

Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-03-29 21:45 | Report Abuse

confirmed lower oil prices at the pump as set by government starting tomorrow, March 30, 2017

Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-03-29 21:46 | Report Abuse

now waiting for lower oil prices from OPEC...

Posted by ragesliew > 2017-03-31 00:23 | Report Abuse

Offshore - guess u dont know how O&G works....
UMW O&G have been working in Indonesia, Vietnam, Myanmar.and Philippines.... people are quite good, just wrong timing
Take a drive to Kemaman, you see some there....

Posted by chompks > 2017-03-31 10:54 | Report Abuse

Oil price will never be the same again

Posted by JoshuaMS7 > 2017-03-31 11:38 | Report Abuse

this counter still got hope? Planning to hold or sell this few days

Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-03-31 11:47 | Report Abuse

it is hard to say but we all know now that the ceiling for oil price is there .... i cannot see how this can be broken

Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-03-31 11:58 | Report Abuse

just beware of the company defaulting on too high debts and not able to make the next 6 months

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2017-04-01 02:41 | Report Abuse

.... just beware of the merger collapsing ;-) altho im sure PNB will make SURE it happens

Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-04-02 00:45 | Report Abuse

very high debt is a high risk factor not rumor and this causes default if the company cannot service them. debt does not recognise who owns them only the ability to service, why do you think UMW is letting go of the entity? PNB is also very concerned and they have to raise 2B from the public money to help pay off the debts, check their proposed utilisation of proceeds from recapitalisation exercise. the oil price is also not a guessing job, this is announced by the malaysian government, not rumour and there is also an oil price index available for viewing, hence there is no need to predict or guess. nobody likes the bad situation ok..

Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-04-02 11:54 | Report Abuse

why are you wasting time here? bad or good is there to share...buy or sell is a personal decision and don't blame others...

Posted by offshore > 2017-04-02 16:44 | Report Abuse

Even if oil price rise above 60 or all their rigs got a contract, it will take sometime for this company to be profitable. The day rates will always lag the oil price.

Actually, even at low oil price, oil companies cut down on capex but not so much on opex. This is where this company can deploy their HWU to do well maintenance. Unfortunately, please read through their announcement and see when was the last time their HWU won a contract. I think all their HWU assets are kept in Kemaman now waiting for job, if that is what ragesliew wants me to see in Kemaman.

They been to many Asean countries in the past but what's past is past. The people with the experience working in those countries would have got retrenched by now. What is the chances of this company getting another foreign contract again? In Indonesia, there is Apexindo. In Vietnam, there is PVD. Want a job there? Go queue at the back. In countries where there is no locally based drilling companies, there are many drilling companies (with established track record) bidding for that same contract. If you follow this company, you will note that there was also one moment when they were eager to enter Middle East.

Their assets financed by short term loan was really a bad decision. If you invest with your own money, would you invest in an asset with 25 years lifespan if the bank will only give a 5 year loan and expect you to rollover every 5 years? That's high risk to me. What if the bank pull back the loan? Perhaps, in the upcoming AGM, please ask if the management able to rollover all the short term loans and if so, at what rate? This information is important in determining their breakeven day rate.

With regards to the merger, please read the Edge few weeks ago. It was stated that the CEO of UMWH actually initiated this. It happen at a time when the current PNB's CEO has left Ekuinas for months. So, it may not necessarily be a done deal as PNB may not want to co-own the enlarged group with Ekuinas.

Please don't buy just because the share price is low and think that oil price will bounce back. The oil price had remained very low throughout the 90s although there was Iraq war. And that scenario could happen again. Actually, the current oil price is not low, it is a new normal.

Posted by offshore > 2017-04-03 19:18 | Report Abuse

The future is bright indeed if they can survive this downturn as other bigger players like Seadrill are on the brink of bankruptcy. Just pray that there is no other new players coming in and spoil the market with a lower rate because assets are dirt cheap now. Actually this is the best time to go into offshore drilling business, if only you could get financing from bank. Unfortunately, those that started off at the peak will have to slowly crawl out from the bottomless pit.

There is no synergy in the merger. I have not seen drilling and OSV services being packaged under one contract. Icon's vessels are low capacity engines which are plenty in the market. I don't think their utilisation is fantastic. It is also quite difficult for the management of the enlarged group to report to both PNB and Ekuinas. But I think the demerger is likely to happen because UMWOG is just too big for UMWH to hold. PNB will pump in money via rights issue and that dilutive effect will happen and I believe, already well priced in.

Posted by chanyh > 2017-04-05 16:38 | Report Abuse

oil counter strong today..

Posted by offshore > 2017-04-05 23:11 | Report Abuse

Banks will still finance oil and gas companies, just that the margin of financing is lower, interest rate is very high and many other unfavourable terms. Petronas will take care of local companies but they must still match their price to current market price and if they can't make money at that price, too bad.

Posted by Wai Yoong > 2017-04-06 14:50 | Report Abuse

This share is very risky, it might fall below 0.6, if I were you, I would think about the consequences before buying this share as it has fallen so much from 2014 to 2017 due to oil prices, however, if you take a close look on the financial report, the company has so many debts and the revenue being generated is so less, so please be aware before making a buy action

Posted by offshore > 2017-04-07 08:25 | Report Abuse

Yeah, when Alam Maritim, THHE and Perisai dropped below RM1, how much worse can it be? Well, 80 sen and 10 sen is still a big difference. Even if the share has hit the bottom, it can remain at the bottom for quite sometime. It will bounce back one day, you just wait but money is stuck there in the meantime.

Posted by chompks > 2017-04-07 15:53 | Report Abuse

Still look risky

Posted by offshore > 2017-04-10 11:36 | Report Abuse

No, you don't buy even if crude oil hit 100, just pose those questions i suggested in my post earlier during agm, it will give you some hint if this company is investable even for long term, concern like further impairment, interest rate, potential idling rigs etc. Don't get too excited if this company gets new contract over the next few months, if any. The share price may rise due to such good announcement but take that as an avenue to get out.

Posted by rijack88 > 2017-04-14 09:22 | Report Abuse

thinking to cut loss on this counter!

Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-04-14 11:54 | Report Abuse

if US drop another big bomb near some oil reserves, this will hit ISIS then things may change...

Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-04-14 17:01 | Report Abuse

until now ISIS still not destroyed damn strong....

Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-04-14 17:15 | Report Abuse

wasted bomb for nothing..

Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-04-15 01:46 | Report Abuse

only 36 killed reported really minimum impact, ISIS strong because of oil funding, just bomb their reserves will do more damage ... of course USA will not do this because of politics lah as usual so ISIS will continue for sure after all this show...

Posted by naimfm > 2017-04-17 13:37 | Report Abuse

Pity PNB, take people money but dont know how to manage a company. IPO 2.80 but now only 0.65. The next AGM should sacked all the management of the company. Their own proposal take down further the price by 50% just within 30 minutes the proposal announced.

Posted by offshore > 2017-04-17 17:39 | Report Abuse

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-Aramco-IPO-Behind-Saudi-Eagerness-For-OPEC-Cut-Extension.html

Posted by offshore > 2017-04-19 08:02 | Report Abuse

If you have been involved in the IPO committee of a "soon to be listed" company, you will note that their sole objective or KPI is to list their company at the highest possible PE using all sorts of justification. So IPO price is always overpriced.

Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-04-20 00:08 | Report Abuse

the due diligence report was supposed to be completed by April 19, 2017??? hope they will announce something soon and not delayed again??

Posted by offshore > 2017-04-20 08:18 | Report Abuse

GLCs are like that, decision making process is very slow cos nobody dares to stick their neck out. Everyone looking after themselves first, not the company.

Posted by Andrew62 > 2017-04-20 13:47 | Report Abuse

AGM coming up soon to discuss about Chairman and Directors renumerations.

Posted by naimfm > 2017-04-20 18:23 | Report Abuse

Najib Proud of PNB having this kind of company?

Najib: PNB an institution Malaysians can be proud of
Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/#pLr72WSSXC6dkd2X.99

Posted by naimfm > 2017-04-20 20:39 | Report Abuse

Own company got problem but still want to takeover other companies with high price. Furthermore, want to issue expensive right. Cannot be Maybank IB analyst so stupid.

Posted by naimfm > 2017-04-20 20:50 | Report Abuse

If you got ICON share, the takeover price is RM0.50. To convert to UMWOG share need to pay another RM0.80. That will be RM1.30. But, the current price of UMWOG is only RM0.63. The deal seems to be very illogical.

Posted by syevanee > 2017-04-20 21:24 | Report Abuse

so if hv icon share can hold back n sell umwog..??

Posted by naimfm > 2017-04-20 22:36 | Report Abuse

Rowie, let say I have ICON share, how much need to pay to convert to UMWOG share? My understanding is I have to top up another RM0.80.

Posted by naimfm > 2017-04-20 23:36 | Report Abuse

Tq Rowie.

Posted by offshore > 2017-04-21 07:21 | Report Abuse

Still a good deal to Icon shareholders if you opt for the cash, Icon share price was way below 50 sen before the announcement on 19 Jan. Anyway, there is no guarantee the merger will proceed while the demerger will be decided in the upcoming UMW's EGM.

Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-04-21 23:59 | Report Abuse

big annual report with unnecessary information, result is bad, earnings is bad and share price drop over several years (from 4 to 0.64) but still keep the same people and management blames downturn in oil&gas industry. The question is why did they allow poor performance over several years? no strategy was planned beforehand to handle any downturn over the years and now the only option that they have is to cut costs when is too late??? omg...

Posted by Hunter Cho > 2017-04-22 00:15 | Report Abuse

why is the due diligence extended again? this is an exercise from consulting company based on standard template of reporting???...

Posted by offshore > 2017-04-25 12:47 | Report Abuse

I believe the Head of Drilling and Supply Chain have changed but everyone else remain the same. For directors, Ken and Fina have left. The deputy chairman should take over as chairman soon. The downturn is affecting all oil and gas companies but it's a matter of readiness and risk management in place. The company expanded tremendously during the good times without securing steady long term financing. The rigs may also been bought at higher price through speculators due to the desperate need for new rigs during that time. This is because rigs normally need 2 years to complete. It is not possible for them to announce acquisition of Naga 6, 7 and 8 and then, took delivery within a year unless they bought through speculators that have booked the rigs in advance. Well, those were the good times. And being a new player, the day rates may have to undercut competitor, hence, earning less than it should be to withstand the downturn. Some may argue the lower day rate was justifiable being a long term contract but what's the point of having a long term contract when the oil company can suspend the contract anytime without compensation.

By the way, the CEO of Bumi Armada has been changed. You can't just blame the industry and get away.

Posted by snwong13 > 2017-04-26 09:36 | Report Abuse

.
Yes, worth noting the movement of shares UMWOG/ICON..

“With the absence of the value erosion from Icon Offshore and Orkim should the proposed merger be aborted, we estimate that UMW-OG’s fair value could be raised by 15 sen to 80 sen a share. 

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/04/25/aminvestment-research-retains-hold-for-umw-og/#ZbDBHbgOu6recWLI.99

Posted by Andy88 > 2017-04-26 09:47 | Report Abuse

Umwog will close 0.78 today??

Posted by offshore > 2017-04-26 10:45 | Report Abuse

The demerger is still likely to happen. Very embarrassing if minority shareholders disapprove it in the upcoming EGM. With UMWOG out of the UMW group, some reduction in intangible value is expected as UMWOG no longer can use the UMW brand or subject to UMW's supervision. Just imagine if the management can make so many mistake under the supervision of UMW, you can expect worse when they are on their own.

Posted by offshore > 2017-04-26 11:05 | Report Abuse

I am talking about the demerger, not the merger.

Posted by newbie_2017 > 2017-04-26 11:39 | Report Abuse

If merger off, will parent UMW rejoin O&G business?