My Armada today has gain more than 12% from yesterday closing price. I bought it in the morning when the price nose dive due to panic selling..hence my gain is much better.
Same thing is happening to Sapnrg, Velesto and KNM...
U.S. shale growth is about to decline, becoming an immediate victim of the Saudi-Russian price war.
Saudi Aramco said that it would increase oil production to 12.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April, a shocking escalation of the war for market share. That level of output is believed to be beyond what Aramco can produce on a sustainable basis. In other words, Saudi Arabia is going all-out to flood the market.
Also, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman didn’t sound interested in meeting with Russia anytime soon. “I fail to see the wisdom for holding meetings in May-June that would only demonstrate our failure in attending to what we should have done in a crisis like this and taking the necessary measures,” Prince Abdulaziz told Reuters.
According to Energy Intelligence, Saudi Arabia is conducting budgeting exercises to game out scenarios in which oil crashes to between $12 to $20 per barrel, and will even look at an extreme scenario in which oil falls below $10.
Russia says it can withstand the price war at $25 to $30 per barrel for 6 to 10 years. Neither side appears willing to budge.
“Monday will go down as one of the bleakest market days in the history of the energy sector,” Raymond James wrote in a note. “Was this capitulation day? It certainly feels like it... it is hard to imagine how much worse sentiment can get.” Related: Russia Fires Back: Could Boost Oil Production By 500,000 Bpd
As a result, the immediate victim will be U.S. shale. “[O]il should bottom out when producers begin physically shutting in wells, which is indeed what set the floor four years ago,” the investment bank added.
The reaction was swift. With share prices in freefall, the number of shale companies announcing budget cuts multiplied at the start of the week. Diamondback Energy and Parsley Energy immediately announced plans to cut spending and reduce drilling activity.
Canadian oil company Cenovus Energy slashed 2020 capex by 32 percent and its production guidance by 5 percent. Ovintiv said it would cut spending and tried to reassure skittish investors that it had enough liquidity. Marathon Oil cut spending by $500 million.
Even Chevron admitted that it might need to cut spending, just days after it unveiled lofty goals on free cash flow over the next five years. “We are reviewing alternatives to reduce capital expenditures, that are expected to lower short-term production and preserve long-term value,” Chevron said in a statement to Reuters late on Monday. Chevron was the first oil major to suggest that it might cut spending, and the oil giant said that it needs $55 per barrel in order to cover its spending and shareholder payouts.
At these prices almost no shale well drilled today can make money. Rystad Energy says just a handful of companies have breakevens lower than today’s oil price. Friezo Loughrey of data firm Oil Well Partners LLC told Bloomberg that Permian breakevens are closer to $68 per barrel if investors want an adequate return within 24 months. Today, prices are trading at half of that. Related: Saudi Arabia's Archenemy Is Taking Advantage Of The Oil War
“Many US fracking companies already had their backs to the wall before the price slump due to high debts and financing difficulties,” Commerzbank wrote in a note. “Drilling activity declined continuously until mid-January, and has since stagnated at a low level.”
The one-two combo of the coronavirus pandemic and the Saudi-Russia price war could deliver a knockout blow to U.S. shale.
But perspectives on the impact on production vary. JBC Energy said that they “prefer a more cautious call on US supply declines,” adding that it may take a few months before production begins to fall.
But others see an immediate retreat. “A decline in US shale oil production of 1-2m bl/day from current total US oil production of 13.1m bl/day is natural to expect,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said in a statement. “We now think that a last-minute deal between Russia and OPEC before the expiry of the current cuts at the end of March 2020 is very unlikely. Russia has probably firmly decided that now is the time to pull away the rug from under the feet of the shale oil producers, so now is the time for the second shale oil reset.”
The plunge in crude oil prices is likely to cause the government to lose billions of ringgit in oil revenue that could see the fiscal deficit balloon under current spending plans.
At the price of US$48 per barrel for oil, Malaysia stands to have RM4.5bil shaved off from its oil revenue. And should the prices plummet to the range of US$20 to US$25 per barrel, the additional losses would be to the tune of between RM11.1bil and RM12.6bil.
Brent crude oil was at the range of US$36 per barrel as at press time.
of course, gomen is whining abt loss of revenue due to plunge in oil prices. But, in good times large sums of $$$ has been siphoned off via 1MDB. Our national debt is already at its limit. It won't take a rocket scientist to tell us that too much debt is bad. Russia is able to withstand oil price in its $30 plus range because it does not have much debt.
WEll, lets hope the God, Trump, will phone SA n ask them what the hell they are doing. Does SA still need US protection ? Ask them to stop all this nonsense.
@CharlesT Mable still make some money as she claimed...
I made from the Wa
sifu made some from Wa but lost from mother
i think all sifu's followers who followed his buy calls into wA n mother went holland 13/03/2020 7:10 AM
Charlie Dear,
As explained earlier, it's still looking good. Thanks to our Russian connection, beside other Battleships that I shared earlier, over the last 2 days, I have been accumulating another 5 batches of Interceptor Serba Dinamik. My last collection was in early January 2020. The other 5 batches were collected before the Bonus Issues and Share Splits. Just like Icon, I have also been trading in Serba and applied the same principle - buying on dip and sell when it's on momentum
With this latest accumulation, my Interceptor Serba Dinamik has fallen from P1 to P2 in term of margin from my collections of Battleships.
What I did is to apply the Pareto principle (also known as the 80/20 rule). In economics, the original observation was in connection with population and wealth. Pareto noticed that approximately 80% of Italy's land was owned by 20% of the population. He then carried out surveys on a variety of other countries and found to his surprise that a similar distribution applied.
I have applied this principle when investing in my collection of battleships, the 80-20 rule maintains that 80% of outcomes (outputs) come from 20% of causes (inputs). In the 80-20 rule, you prioritize the 20% of factors that will produce the best results.
Thanks for asking. It's a nice feeling when someone is in love with you..
Studies have repeatedly shown that when that occurs, many ordinary investors found the losses too much to bear and sell stocks, often at or around the market lows.
@tkl88 Good news, Crude oil price make a big U-turn spike up back ! As at 2.50pm, Nymex => $32.27 (+0.77) (+2.44%) Brent => $34.09 (+0.87) (+2.62%) 13/03/2020 2:53 PM
@apanama once crude break USD 40..confirm USD 70 back..lets invest in Oil and Gas stocks..buy when other people scared to buy..:) 13/03/2020 2:59 PM
tkl88 Dow Jones future also from red red this morning make a big U-turn to spike up to become green green ! 13/03/2020 3:10 PM
tkl88 As at 3.00pm, DJI => 21,471.0 (+386.0) (+1.83%) 13/03/2020 3:10 PM
@apanama we are looking for 20% recovery of FBMKLCI..so 1585-1600 ..so ICON definitely double during that time..come on warriors..BUY BUY BUY 13/03/2020 3:17 PM
Wow..thanks for sharing guys!
I'm glad I sailang few energy counters this week..
Wow, Amazing ! As at 5.35 p.m, Dow Jones Futures a big green now at => 21,773.0 (+688.0) (+3.26%) ! Like that next monday onwards will be a bull market coming already lah !
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Mabel
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Posted by Mabel > 2020-03-10 10:50 | Report Abuse
@Michael Kwok Tq.Enjoy ur passion to collect stocks Mabel.
09/03/2020 11:32 PM
Meow..