When more data comes out the "Shortfall" due to Indonsia BAN of Cooking Oil, etc ........ Countries STILL have to buy from Malaysia. Demand for PO will still be there. Less due to high price.
To sum up the whole Indonesia sequence of events:- Jan 22- Set DMO @ 20%, export levy USD375 Feb 22- Set DMO @ 30%, export levy USD375 Mar 22- Remove DMO, increase export levy to USD675 Apr 22- Export ban on RBD Olein, export levy maintain at USD675
And this current policy will only be reviewed when cooking oil price drop from 26k rupiah per litre to 14k rupiah per litre. Erm, u can only guess how long this ban will last…
Important key for small investor like me, don't believe too much some people comment /article saying bplant should worth how high value than currently share price. If really got the big gap different from currently share price, all big shark will know and buy early,we would not got chance to buy cheapest. Also don't believe too much who said may got merge or take over by other big big company because they are not the people magnament the company. But we small investor can do some homework and judgement ourselves, isn't this share will slowly slowly up, if answer is yes, then can buy. Remember setting your earnings target and setting your risk how much you can lost. I believe bplant can higher than today price when time close to announce qtr report in May. Question is how high that time. No people can buy lower and sell higher, if can, maybe is your luck but would not every time good luck. Hope everyone can earn some money for Raya.
Investment, agree with u. Being a company with no going concern issues, u can’t expect a plantation company to keep selling land. Landbank needs to be replenished/production needs to be boosted to sustain future profitability. Hence pls look at fundamental/underlying performance. Durian runtuh land sales/privatisation can only be a bonus.
If a company got potential, thn keep for long term. I personally don’t like a company that gambles coz it distorts the underlying performance n sometimes gambles profit away. Hence pls do research to see if the past “realised CPO price” of plantation counter deviates significantly vs average CPO price for the quarter.
Tomorrow definitely another spike on all the malaysian based plantation counters. The Indonesia PO ban is across the board. Crude and refined oil. So, the net widens. Please see the latest TheEdge news.
Yesterday Economic minister says limited crude palm oil shipment allowed. Today Minister quickly reversed his decision to follow Jokowi announcement. Shippers getting their custom clearance on or before 27/4 can ship their exports
I m not CPO expert, but I kind of know why they wanna have total ban, coz some will just keep CPO as it is to export out instead of turn it into RBD n being forced to sell as end product at lower margin…
Do remember that Indonesia has 340,000,000 population. Riots , Unrest, demonstrations, etc has erupted in Indonesia because FOOD prices has gone up tremendously. One major cause is Cooking Oil shortages . Remember that about ~200,000,000 people in Indonesia survive with just sufficient $$$ and little savings ( 2 years of Covid lockdown). Now .... Imagine these people going on RIOTS ??? Indonesia Govn is trying to "FORCE" the plantations, refineries , traders, etc to "FLOOD" the Indo market with "Cheap Cooking oil" . Else they cannot "EXPORT" it out and make a HANDSOME profit. ..Of course ..Malaysia says ..."BIG THANK YOU" !!!
Indonesia has already stated ..... There is NOT enough storage for the CPO. Another 1 to 2 months of normal CPO production .. means that CPOhas NO more storage. So ... Let the FFB ROT on the palm oil trees ? Of course Plantations will be caught with a BIG dilema . Harvest and make more COOKING Oil to "Flood" Indonesia market ? Will Traders and big Companies ..Now Release their stockpile into the market...Thus Flooding Indonesia with Cheap Cooking oil ? If they do not........ The Plantations MAY do it from their STOCKPILE as Plantations need the STORAGE TANKS to store New CPO. ...... Going to get Interesting in the PO business in Indonesia in the coming WEEKS ....
Wrong question. If Monday happens u going to sell or miss the opportunity to sell the last time.
For me, money is hand is better than money on paper. You can always buy back. ———————————— brianklc Pls stay calm, don’t let Monday repeat itself…. 3 hours ago
Certain congolemerates are accused by the Indonesia! Authorities and under investigation for hoarding cooking oil and misusing the export permits. Not the upstream planters who sells the crude palm oil to the integrated downstream players. Typically an individual oil mill has a storage tank's space capacity of between 80 - 90 days of the Mill's daily production { excluding external tank space at the ports or warehouse} Giants congolemerates like the Salim group and Astra and their distribution arm has denied the accusation.
Certain companies are accused of misusing and falsifying their export quotas and permits. Wilmar group, Musim Mas and Permata Hijau group all have denied the allegations
RJ, some that play contra lost lots of money on Monday. If u observe a few plantation counters, especially THPlant, suddenly got lots of haters within Monday itself. For me, well, 1st part of Monday is very nice, but for some, 2nd part of Monday is damn brutal.
With the extended Raya weekend holidays till next Wednesday. players will be very cautious and not blindly punt any stocks. Contra players have different strategy " buy whatever hot counters today and sell whenever a few sen percentage points arise the next 2-3 days. investor buy for long term based on the potential upside
Simple key, if you satisfied the margin now and think can't get better offer from this price, then sell it. If you think currently price can't meet you margin requirement, then keep and wait good time. No wrong or right, some people can earn money in this share market and some people will lost money in this share market.Very very very less people can control the price up and down, if can, I'm sure the people would not appear in this forum. Remember, money earning from risk, just do your study. No easy money in this world... Your job is let market do decision how much for this bplant... Hope everyone can earn some money to make life easy...
Calculate risk vs rewards. Use the time tested formula what's the upside potential of the counter and the rate increase going forward vs the downward bias. New KWSP CEO {Amir Hamzah} needs to show his mettle and ride on the trend
Those that sell and buy back that morning makes money.
It’s always a dilemma. Later sell already can’t buy back if it continues to go up.
Dumb dumb hold the best. No need headache. _______________ brianklc RJ, some that play contra lost lots of money on Monday. If u observe a few plantation counters, especially THPlant, suddenly got lots of haters within Monday itself. For me, well, 1st part of Monday is very nice, but for some, 2nd part of Monday is damn brutal.
A convergence of multiple forces pushing up world's supply of grains and edible oil prices. Palm oil was unexpectedly hike up by the surprised Indonesia ban on their exports. The adverse drought on Brazil soy crops is damaging. Brazil is the world largest exporter and producer of soy beans. Not forgetting Argentina in March has earlier halted thier own exports. Ukraine the food basket of Europe has taken a big hit with the Russia war on their Eastern front. Wheat and Sunflower crops will be badly disrupted. China, India, European countries all are facing multiple food supply restocking issue. US, Europe is having a tough times balancing their need between high food prices and high energy prices { using ethanol biofuel as an alternate fuel } Food inflation is here to stay. High cooking oil is here to stay
(Highlight) Following Indonesia’s palm oil export ban, Malaysia may not be able to fill the supply gap to meet global palm oil demand, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) director-general Datuk Dr Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
MuttsInvestor
865 posts
Posted by MuttsInvestor > 2022-04-27 18:42 | Report Abuse
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/palm-oil RM6,990 today ( 27 April 2022 ) ....... Surprised ???? ...Not Really !!!