Posted by 林俊松 > 2014-12-02 14:13 | Report Abuse

KLCI will crash to 1700 points & below?

Posted by wren > 2014-12-03 17:31 | Report Abuse

thanks cimb for giving us chance to make money in this market~~:)

Posted by maunkulopdollah > 2014-12-04 18:04 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow..closed 0.20..hihi. Index will red tomolo, hg will go further.

Posted by maunkulopdollah > 2014-12-04 18:07 | Report Abuse

Which more better hb or hg..hg volume just started building.

Posted by maunkulopdollah > 2014-12-04 22:48 | Report Abuse

Still ample room for further upside...

Posted by maunkulopdollah > 2014-12-04 22:56 | Report Abuse

Index already downed 75 points...tomolo another 25 points..index closed below 1720...hihi

Posted by 林俊松 > 2014-12-05 15:25 | Report Abuse

Who bought at 17.5 cents already holding paper lost more than 10%.
=)

Posted by bursahunter > 2014-12-08 22:28 | Report Abuse

lol....whoever knows tis product oredi sapu at 10sens la...hahaha

Posted by AIphatrader > 2014-12-09 16:21 | Report Abuse

How to caltulate its true value?
Can someone explain how the conversion works?

Posted by Alpha Trader > 2014-12-09 16:24 | Report Abuse

What a joke, AIpha trader asking people question, make me LOL

Posted by deepmarine > 2014-12-09 16:49 | Report Abuse

lol

Posted by region > 2014-12-09 18:52 | Report Abuse

here the calculation = (1800-1738.1)/667 = 0.093

meaning that u buy at 0.21c - 0.093c =0.117c(u loss 0.11c)

unless klci drop until 1660 point or else u loss..... if next year klci still remain 1700 loss u make.

Posted by JeevS > 2014-12-09 22:58 | Report Abuse

hi i understand the calculation. but i dont expect the put warrant to stay at 0.21c as the market falls to 1660. Your put warrant gonna increase with the downfall of the market. Its like this put warrant is designed to lich people's money. correct me if i'm wrong

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-09 22:59 | Report Abuse

trading of put warrant leverage on fear.

why do u buy put warrant? bcos u believe the underlying asset, KLCI in the matter. will drop or melt.

another reason u buy is to hedge your other stocks that u cannot sell. ie no buyer. or unwilling to sell.

when u r emotional, u r willing to pay higher price.

and the lifespan is another 11 months.

moral of the story, straightly learn from textbook would make u miss opportunities.

this is not a buy/sell recommendation.

Posted by miketyu > 2014-12-10 10:09 | Report Abuse

Overvalued already. Cham lo for those who bought yesterday

Posted by MainKecik > 2014-12-10 10:29 | Report Abuse

not overvalued... still have long way to go... with the current oil price and no clear direction from government, market shall go below 1700... dont be trapped with window dressing....

Posted by gohlai > 2014-12-10 11:01 | Report Abuse

based on calculation...this is extremely overpriced..

Posted by Insanity > 2014-12-10 13:40 | Report Abuse

now change side to goreng FBMKLCI-C*

Posted by MainKecik > 2014-12-10 16:17 | Report Abuse

Jgn tamak... Fokus satu2...

Posted by RussianRoulete > 2014-12-11 10:37 | Report Abuse

NO PANIC LAH... CAN CONTINUE BUY STOCK ...WHAT TO WORRY??

Posted by MainKecik > 2014-12-11 12:11 | Report Abuse

Which stock @RussianRoulete

Posted by johnnytensai > 2014-12-14 21:06 | Report Abuse

@gohlai, you are correct, so i am waiting for it to come down...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-14 21:15 | Report Abuse

it is not "grossly" overvalued. Should look at it from conversion premium point of view (just like you value normal warrants)

existing premium is 667 x 0.205 + 1730 / 1800 = 137 + 1730 / 1800 = 1867 / 1800 = 1.037

the conversion premium is only 3.7%.

For normal warrant, with one year life span left, the conversion premium should be 5% to 10%.

From this perspective, the HG is not overvalued at all

welcome your feed back as I am not sure I am 100% right

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-14 21:22 | Report Abuse

icon. its worth 10c now and selling at 20.5c.

assuming when it expire at nov 2015 the ci is still the same as now, 1733.

how u calc the premium at 3%?

its currently trading at more than double of its spot price. i have never heard something as wild as that.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-14 21:24 | Report Abuse

the simplest thing abt valuation of this hb is strike level 1800. means when ci is above 1800 on expiry date, u get zero back from the ib who issued it.

Posted by tjhldg > 2014-12-14 21:46 | Report Abuse

heheheee ... wrong liau :) .. what about the 667 /1 ? go think :))
example : 0.10 x 667 = 66.70 - 1800 = 1733 .. so u r right , this hg actual worth 10 cents for now .. just mr market price in the time value and market sentiment so give around 4 % premium .

y 4 % ? is like that
composite index now 1733 = 100 %
0.205( current price )x 667 = 136-1800 =1664 = 96%

as is put warrant so the premium is around 4 % = 69 points

not 100 % sure for above and pls do corret me if m wrong

Posted by tjhldg > 2014-12-14 21:51 | Report Abuse

in normal case for warrant then 4 % premium is not high esp . in call warrant tat 200 + day to expired .. but this hg under lying is composit index .. so 69 points for me is bit high ... go short kaw spot month or next month or march future will more fair to us ... just 2 cents :)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-14 21:53 | Report Abuse

nevermind.... I am just mumbling to myself.... please ignore my comments...

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-14 21:54 | Report Abuse

Tj. Correct also if u want calc that way. In this instrument. Even 1% premium move will creat havoc to the instrument.
To the underlying asset is 4%. But to the intrinsic is 110% premium. Depends which one u want to use.
From ib point of view. They have just made 100% by hedging this in futures mkt.
Thats the yardstick i look at.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-14 21:58 | Report Abuse

looking forward to tomorrow to see how market will perform with DJIA down 300 points and Brent down USD1.83

Posted by tjhldg > 2014-12-14 21:59 | Report Abuse

yups optimuss .. say liau .. if we can short this type of put warrant then is risk free hedging ... haizzzzz .. the big boy song ka liau la ...hahhhahahaa .... bo pian la ... 看 得 到 吃 不 到 。。。and is not we tak tau ..... kikikikiiiiii huhuhuhuuuuu

Posted by kk123 > 2014-12-14 22:00 | Report Abuse

This warrant won't move much
Look at the conversion ratio

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-14 22:01 | Report Abuse

tj why you say down 60 points is very difficult ? that is only 3.5% of latest CI of 1730 woh

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-14 22:01 | Report Abuse

In futures mkt. A move of 5% will means almost 75pts thats 3700 losses on your 4000 margin.
Means u loss all your margin.
Donno of anyone pay that kind of premium for futures.

Posted by tjhldg > 2014-12-14 22:05 | Report Abuse

hi icon8888 ... think 20 points above la ... just wish ada big boy masuk and support sikit la ... or 1 kali kasi dia kena teruk teruk like 50 n above la .. knn then hantam sama dia lo ...hahahahaaha .. turun kuat n cepat i tak takut , yang takut is ban ban si la .... huhuhuhuuu
good luck la

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-14 22:06 | Report Abuse

optimuss let's make a bet on whether it is possible for CI to go down 60 points to 1670 before Nov 2015 (expiry of HG)

dare to bet ? (no point talk talk talk so much argue long argue short)

Posted by tjhldg > 2014-12-14 22:06 | Report Abuse

hi icon 8888 .. din say difficult .. just personal view is more fair to short future then buy this hg .... 2 cents

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-14 22:07 | Report Abuse

how ? optimus ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-14 22:08 | Report Abuse

let's bet RM10,000

dare or not ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-14 22:09 | Report Abuse

if I lose, u give me a bank account number and I bank in 10k

and vice versa

Posted by tjhldg > 2014-12-14 22:10 | Report Abuse

oupsssss .... heheheee ....agree to disagree la :) ...
enjoy la optimuss and icon88888 ... have a good day and good luck to alll here ... byeeeeeeeeee

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-14 22:12 | Report Abuse

ooi are you there ?

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-14 22:12 | Report Abuse

Icon. I enter future mkt directly. I dont wan to pay crazy premium for nov 2015 where anything is possible.

60pts before nov 2015. Highly possible.
Why not bet this month only. I m more interested

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-14 22:13 | Report Abuse

if you agree to bet, then I will write an article to announce the details to everybody

then everybody in the forum can follow the whole episode until Nov 2015

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-14 22:16 | Report Abuse

Posted by optimuss > Dec 14, 2014 09:22 PM | Report Abuse

icon. its worth 10c now and selling at 20.5c.

assuming when it expire at nov 2015 the ci is still the same as now, 1733.

how u calc the premium at 3%?

its currently trading at more than double of its spot price. i have never heard something as wild as that.

====================

I interpret your post above as disagreeing with me that paying 20.5 sen for HG now is not overvalued. That is why I invited you to bet for the period until Nov 2015.

That has got nothing to do with betting on this month

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-14 22:18 | Report Abuse

Posted by optimuss > Dec 14, 2014 10:12 PM | Report Abuse

Icon. I enter future mkt directly. I dont wan to pay crazy premium for nov 2015 where anything is possible.

60pts before nov 2015. Highly possible.
Why not bet this month only. I m more interested

===========================

you said "I don't want to pay crazy premium for Nov 2015"

which is against my claim that at 20.5 sen, HG's premium is not crazy for 2015.

So I invite you to bet

How ?

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-14 22:19 | Report Abuse

Icon. Only a 3 yr old kid would accept this bet. Any better game for adults?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2014-12-14 22:20 | Report Abuse

Dear Icon,

I am reading all the article now, I will email you my analysis tomorrow.

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-14 22:22 | Report Abuse

hi OTB, nice to hear from you

I am still regularly reading your emails (as a subscriber, remember ?)

As we draw closed to end of the year, all I wish to say to you is "what an eventful year..."

: )

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-14 22:23 | Report Abuse

OTB you have actually met me face to face before.

I just never approached you to reveal my identity