Posted by jinghee > 2020-05-21 16:20 | Report Abuse

Yes, technically all turn well, as long as naptha price keep lower.. Hope that it still keep far below from it previous high of >USD500.....

Posted by jinghee > 2020-05-21 16:21 | Report Abuse

today volume also turn 3x more than yesterday... hope it will resume it long term uptrend momentum

Posted by jackson88 > 2020-05-21 20:43 | Report Abuse

https://m.pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?year=2020&no=520920

Read this ....get ready for Lotte Chemical parent company M&A spending spree

Posted by titan3322 > 2020-05-22 10:18 | Report Abuse

Right time to switch from PChem to lctitan

Posted by Nepo > 2020-05-25 11:12 | Report Abuse

Any hope?

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-05-25 16:42 | Report Abuse

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=46338

Posted by stockraider > 2020-05-25 17:41 | Report Abuse

Upcycle for Global Chemical Industry Expected until 2022
Lotte Chemical: To Be Biggest Beneficiary of Curbed U.S. Ethane Production

By Baek Young-chan & Yoon Jang-han May 25, 2020, 14:54Share
Print
Email
Fonts
The authors are analysts of KB Securities. They can be reached at yc.baek@kbfg.com and se18190@kbfg.com, respecitively. – Ed.

Raise TP by 6.8% to KRW250,000; upcycle for global chemical industry expected until 2022

We raise our TP by 6.8% to KRW250,000 to reflect revised earnings forecasts (higher 2021-22 PE/PP profitability). As our second-best industry pick, Lotte Chemical is appealing because: (1) PE/PP profitability is forecast to climb on a boost in packaging demand in 2H20 (2) PE industry conditions in Asia are forecast to recover in 2020-21 vs. stagnant ethylene/PE supply in the U.S.

Positive lag to improve profitability beginning in 2Q20

We forecast 2Q20 revenue of KRW2.93tr (-27.3% YoY) and OP of KRW163.1bn (-52.9% YoY), with earnings swinging into the black QoQ. Sales volume should decline QoQ stemming from curbed demand from the U.S. and European automobile industries, but profitability should improve on a positive lag based on cheaper naphtha, a key input. HDPE/PP prices are estimated to dive USD85.00/USD75.00 QoQ to USD740.00/ USD800.00, but feedstock naphtha is also forecast to plummet 50.4% QoQ (or USD269) to USD265. The positive lag is expected to continue should economic activity gradually normalize in 2H20.

Curbed U.S. ethane production to dampen U.S. PE exports

Despite an earnings slump in 1Q20, we recommend BUY for Lotte Chemical given (1) the start of a positive lag in 2H20, (2) COVID-19-triggered packaging-purpose PE/PP demand and (3) stagnant ethylene/PE supply in the U.S. for 2020-21. We emphasize the prospect of shrinking chemical production in the U.S. Plunging international oil prices will cause U.S. crude/natural gas production to tumble. Given this, we estimate 2020/21 U.S. ethane production volume to shrink 3.7%/5.8% YoY.

Current insufficient availability of feedstock indicates that ethane cracker utilization rates in the U.S. should decline from 90.0% in 2019 to 85.3% in 2022. Thus, despite annual ramp ups for cracker facilities, net U.S. PE exports are not expected to exceed the current 6mn tons. In 2018-19, Asian PE market conditions deteriorated because of massive PE inflow from the U.S.; for 2020, we forecast the beginning of an upcycle.

RAIDER SAYS;

I THINK LCTITAN WILL OUTPERFORM COMPARE PCHEM LOH...!!

JUST BUY & HOLD LCTITAN, YOUR UPSIDE WILL BE TREMENDOUS MAH...!!

U WILL NOT REGRET LOH....!!

Posted by kelvin61 > 2020-05-26 01:09 | Report Abuse

Agreed with Stockraider on this stock. Have been buying this stock from RM1.20 all the way up. Expect Lotte to defer their planned expansion and retain the cash. Lotte may also reward shareholders with an interim dividend if the 2nd and 3rd quarter profits beat street estimates, cheers.

Posted by sell > 2020-05-26 05:51 | Report Abuse

Oil up good for LC Titan?

Posted by sell > 2020-05-26 05:53 | Report Abuse

QR Q1 loss why 1.81 cheap?

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-26 20:58 | Report Abuse

Joining the party tomorrow guys!!

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-05-27 09:50 | Report Abuse

RM2.00

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-05-27 11:00 | Report Abuse

One thing I wanted to share is that some ppl have the perception that LCTITAN is only competing locally against PCHEM for its business. LCTITAN has one 1 plant in Malaysia i think, the rest of are overseas. Their 2b+ expansion is actually in Indonesia so i dont understand why someone earlier was trying to compare with Pengerang project and PCHEM.

Posted by BornToSpeculate > May 3, 2020 10:41 AM | Report Abuse X

With the current oil prices at historical low, being an downstream user is definitely better than being an integrated player. Is anyone doubting that Petronas group is now suffering badly right now ? Is there transfer pricing to PCHEM and will this change ? What is the avg cost of oil production for Petronas ?

Why did PCHEM report a substantial drop in profits ( since 2018, it has dropped every quarter except Jun2019 ) to a low in Dec 2019 its a worrying underlying down trend but im not going to go into details. This is before MCO. They have the same financial closing as LCTITAN but the latter already reports 1 month earlier consistently. Lets see what PCHEM reports end of May.

No need to argue. You buy GLC producer, you pay 16 PE ( based on 2019 results ). LCTITAN is 7-8x ( based on 2019 results ) and has higher cash per share. Both are expanding, doesnt matter is one is bigger than the other, what matters is the EPS to shareholders and dividend. If you think 16 PE is cheap for PCHEM please go ahead.

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-05-27 15:51 | Report Abuse

seems most ppl sold lctitan. :)

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-27 16:56 | Report Abuse

Deadchicken, you're strong holder here. I exited Titan and wen out fishing and came back. Today exited 1.94 again, not sure if tomorrow can get lower but don't mind buying higer in a good company like Titan. My TP RM 3 but i dont have the time to wait for gold egg to hatch. need to go out hunting for more food. haha

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2020-05-27 17:24 | Report Abuse

Terrorsin, patience is a virtue. I've been holding since 1.23

What other stocks u bought ? POS ?

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-05-27 17:43 | Report Abuse

terrorsin, good luck hunting. I need to sleep well at night. Haha.

Posted by stockraider > 2020-05-27 19:24 | Report Abuse

Correctloh...i do not understand why those sohai says pchem is much better than lctitan loh....!!


Posted by BornToSpeculate > May 27, 2020 11:00 AM | Report Abuse

One thing I wanted to share is that some ppl have the perception that LCTITAN is only competing locally against PCHEM for its business. LCTITAN has one 1 plant in Malaysia i think, the rest of are overseas. Their 2b+ expansion is actually in Indonesia so i dont understand why someone earlier was trying to compare with Pengerang project and PCHEM.

Posted by BornToSpeculate > May 3, 2020 10:41 AM | Report Abuse X

With the current oil prices at historical low, being an downstream user is definitely better than being an integrated player. Is anyone doubting that Petronas group is now suffering badly right now ? Is there transfer pricing to PCHEM and will this change ? What is the avg cost of oil production for Petronas ?

Why did PCHEM report a substantial drop in profits ( since 2018, it has dropped every quarter except Jun2019 ) to a low in Dec 2019 its a worrying underlying down trend but im not going to go into details. This is before MCO. They have the same financial closing as LCTITAN but the latter already reports 1 month earlier consistently. Lets see what PCHEM reports end of May.

No need to argue. You buy GLC producer, you pay 16 PE ( based on 2019 results ). LCTITAN is 7-8x ( based on 2019 results ) and has higher cash per share. Both are expanding, doesnt matter is one is bigger than the other, what matters is the EPS to shareholders and dividend. If you think 16 PE is cheap for PCHEM please go ahead.

Posted by kl_guy > 2020-05-27 19:48 | Report Abuse

look like lctitan is on the move, down on the morning up on the afternoon. if everyday move 10 sen good enough.

Posted by Simonalibaba > 2020-05-27 20:41 | Report Abuse

Once under MSCI, lots of funds will start to buy unlike before this volume is quite small now volume will start to build up. Soon 2 is history. Anything below 2 just hold till 3

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-05-28 09:00 | Report Abuse

RM2.00 ?

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-05-28 09:02 | Report Abuse

Haha...finally RM2.00

Posted by JayC88 > 2020-05-28 09:09 | Report Abuse

yeay

Posted by titan3322 > 2020-05-28 09:18 | Report Abuse

Sudah mali lor

Posted by investortrader88 > 2020-05-28 09:34 | Report Abuse

huat ahhhhhhhhh !

Posted by titan3322 > 2020-05-28 09:46 | Report Abuse

tomorrow 2.30 after it is included in the morgan stanley index

Posted by titan3322 > 2020-05-28 09:47 | Report Abuse

prople don't buy at 2.12 for nothing

Posted by WaAdaLui > 2020-05-28 10:00 | Report Abuse

those who are patient will be rewarded

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-28 10:23 | Report Abuse

Congrats all!

Posted by TheNobbies > 2020-05-28 11:05 | Report Abuse

Niceee !! Awakening of the Titans, after so many years hidden under the sea .

Posted by whitebunny > 2020-05-28 11:21 | Report Abuse

Any good news?

Posted by Simonalibaba > 2020-05-28 11:39 | Report Abuse

no need good news to move back up to 3 level. its only natural progression. MSCI inclusion will lift up the buying by those funds following MSCI index. come 2nd qtr reporting the healthy spread in PE/PP will rerate the stocks back up to 4/5 level.

Posted by whitebunny > 2020-05-28 11:50 | Report Abuse

@simonalibaba, great to know that. Thanks for the sharing!

Posted by Sammuel0808 > 2020-05-28 12:46 | Report Abuse

Hi all, may I know how u guys know Lctitan will be included under MSCI ?

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-05-28 14:54 | Report Abuse

sot jor.

Posted by investortrader88 > 2020-05-28 14:55 | Report Abuse

walau.want to fly to the moon !

Posted by kl_guy > 2020-05-28 14:56 | Report Abuse

lucky hold on lctitan, resisted temptation to jump in glove counter.

Posted by Simonalibaba > 2020-05-28 15:02 | Report Abuse

gloves fairly valued already but petrol chemical companies is on the upward trend. don't miss this opportunity. back to 2.5-3 channel very easily!

Posted by kl_guy > 2020-05-28 15:08 | Report Abuse

I think best to hold till next q-report out. that is end of july. Hope get fry up PE35.

Posted by Chill88 > 2020-05-28 15:11 | Report Abuse

Still holding, see what happens next

Posted by mamatede > 2020-05-28 15:12 | Report Abuse

cant goreng pchem goreng this... hahahaha

Posted by Ismail5595 > 2020-05-28 15:15 | Report Abuse

Goreng habis sampaikan RM3

Posted by kl_guy > 2020-05-28 16:09 | Report Abuse

before end of july , already hit rm3. ...hahaha

Posted by pinetree88 > 2020-05-28 16:45 | Report Abuse

Congrats to all Lotte supporters here! Finally broke above 2.00 Next resistance should be around 2.50.

Posted by whitebunny > 2020-05-28 17:12 | Report Abuse

@Sammuel0808, as shared by @simonalibaba LCTITAN's inclusion in the MSCI Index: https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/smallcap/MSCI_May20_SCPublicList.pdf

Posted by jackson88 > 2020-05-28 17:19 | Report Abuse

Rubberex and some other counter hits limit up today. Watch out the LC Titan May also hit limit up soon ....avoid selling. Wait for big funds to snatch up

Posted by deadchicken > 2020-05-28 17:36 | Report Abuse

broke MA200. Going higher and higher!!

Posted by Simonalibaba > 2020-05-28 17:58 | Report Abuse

How is the HDPE/PP spread now?

Posted by Kon Lim Chai > 2020-05-28 19:14 | Report Abuse

today up 18%, tomorrow limit up! no need to ask why. just feeling it that way!

Posted by josht29 > 2020-05-28 19:43 | Report Abuse

reminiscent of gloves counters...