Posted by soros228 > 2020-09-26 14:55 | Report Abuse

Choivo
Titan revenue dropping since ipo
What will drive it’s growth?

Posted by sonny7088 > 2020-09-26 16:02 | Report Abuse

Thanks alot CC for a very comprehensive research and study on LCTITAN

Posted by sonny7088 > 2020-09-26 16:03 | Report Abuse

Andm your sharing with us. Thanks

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-09-26 17:22 | Report Abuse

Soros,

The upcoming line refinery in Indonesia and the us joint venture.

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2020-09-26 23:23 | Report Abuse

GUYS STOP PROMOTING LCTITAN PLS. I want to reload more on Monday

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2020-09-26 23:38 | Report Abuse

Collect until other stock gurus start to promote

Posted by Bigbull99 > 2020-09-27 00:10 | Report Abuse

just reload wallstreetrookie at any price! I'm going to reload kaokao hopefully below 2.10 then wait till rm4 in Oct

Posted by Bigbull99 > 2020-09-27 00:12 | Report Abuse

Monday market will be steady! PN continue to rule Malaysia. Hopefully push klci to 1600 by next yr!

Posted by DannyArcher > 2020-09-27 14:09 | Report Abuse

I understand there is a huge demand from the medical and packaging side, but what about the loss of demand from the automotive and construction side? Won't it offset the gains? Furthermore, there is no way of knowing what the ASP will be unless Lotte come out and personally address this. It was at the peak of global lockdown, raw material price may drop, but this doesn't mean the ASP will be the same, maybe Lotte sold their feedstock with discount? Just like glove and rubber, the upstream industry like raw rubber does not benefit from the huge demand from gloves, this is because there might be a slight increase in rubber from the glove manufacturer, but it was offset by the huge drop from the automotive and other industry. I won't be surprised if it is the same for O&G raw material suppliers.

Look at MahSing Plastic and many others, they reported a lose for last quarter. Only packaging companies reported better quarter.

From what I understand, during a recession, if I am a manufacturer and have purchasing power, I will renegotiate for a lower ASP from the raw material supplier because they are desperate to clear their stock. This can be seen when China made huge oil purchase when the US oil price went to negative. Because China bought so much oil, can be say Saudi Aramco is going to make huge profit?

Until Lotte says their ASP went up, nobody knows what their profit for next quarter will be. I am willing to be the manufacturer will push for a lower ASP.

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-09-27 14:11 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by DannyArcher > 2020-09-27 14:13 | Report Abuse

and packaging stood at about 30% of the demand for PP and PE, if I am not mistaken. Automotive and Construction took the lion share, more than 50%. For Chiovo prediction to be true, packaging demand for PP and PE must go up by X3 and the ASP up by X3. Is it possible? I dont know, time will tell.

If next quarter is that good, insider would be bought the shares. If 1 or 2 weeks before the announce the report but no insider bought Lotte shares, then the QR will be so so only, not X3 or X2 fantastic like what Chivo wrote.

Posted by Goldgent > 2020-09-27 14:16 | Report Abuse

Pump and dump game?

Posted by Eric963708 > 2020-09-27 14:17 | Report Abuse

gd momentum should be uptrend coming weeks

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-09-27 14:19 | Report Abuse

Danny, furniture demand for plastics is all time high due to the work from home boom, take a look at furniture markets results worldwide.

Vehicle sales have also recovered. Mercedes benz sales exceed covid in msia.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mercedesbenz-malaysia-sees-car-sales-recovering-firmly-demand-higher-precovid-level

Having said that, the real reason for much high profitability is not just prices rising back to pre covid levels.

But their cost falling 34% due to lower naptha prices.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-09-27 14:21 | Report Abuse

Goldgent.

This is not some tiny ace market company with less than 500m market cap.

This one market cap is 4.5bil with 1.1 bil public shares.

It will only go up because earnings going up.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-09-27 14:34 | Report Abuse

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-27/oil-heavyweights-saudi-arabia-russia-look-ready-for-a-showdown?utm_content=business&utm_source=facebook&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > 2020-09-27 15:23 | Report Abuse

Jbond. so that's the way you judge a future price movement pattern based on the past? no wonder you don't deserve to earn from lctitan

Posted by DannyArcher > 2020-09-27 16:55 | Report Abuse

Hi Choivo, yes, their cost drop, but we dont know if Lotte also drop the selling price. That is like saying oil price drop and petrol station will male a killing, but we know petrol station also drop their selling price too.

Therefore we dont know, you could be right, could be wrong. Until Lotte comes out and clarify this, there is a probability Lotte drop their price too.

Demand for gloves is high too, what is the ASP for rubber? Demand for internet is high too, what is the profit for digi, maxis, telekom? Demand for mask is high, what is the ASP for cotton or those raw material?

We know the upper stream supplier dont benefit much when the downstream manufacturer raises price. Just like coffee bean prices.

Until I see insider, directors or related party purchase lotte shares because of the x3 profit, i dont think the coming qr will be fantastic. No sane insider will miss this opportunity, after all, it is not illegal for insider to buy as long as they inform bursa beforehand. Unfortunately, i dont see any movement.

Posted by InsiderShark > 2020-09-27 17:55 | Report Abuse

Everybody, join this pump and dump, golden opportunity. PUMP it high, then we DUMP it to the new comers. Yeah.

Posted by OldWiseMan100 > 2020-09-27 17:57 | Report Abuse

@DannyArcher

Who cares? Just keep quiet lah, why so busybody leh? like insidershark says we join this pump dump game, we make money

Posted by DannyArcher > 2020-09-27 22:08 | Report Abuse

Raw material supplier and producer don't benefit when downstream manufacturer sees a boom. Same thing happened when demand for cooking oil made of palm oil when China opens up during the 80's and 90's. And it will be the same for plastic raw material. I am speaking from experience.

Why rubber smallholders are not enjoying the same margins as glove makers
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/why-rubber-smallholders-are-not-enjoying-same-margins-glove-makers

Posted by Keep Going > 2020-09-27 22:14 | Report Abuse

Make sense by follow the game and make money. But i think Choivo has made a very good analysis. Even we give more safety and discount in the ASP which is still uncertain now until the QR, it is still worth to invest in this stock.

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2020-09-27 23:16 | Report Abuse

Why tf suddenly all Facebook gurus promoting this stock? Something is not right. Guess I will hold and not reload tomorrow

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2020-09-27 23:17 | Report Abuse

Also, someone made a good point. Koreans don’t care shit about investors. See how they let their share price drop so much. I’m afraid this would be another pump and dump. Never mind my average price is super low but for now I won’t be buying more

Posted by jibbie > 2020-09-28 09:03 | Report Abuse

First tp rm2.50

Posted by soros228 > 2020-09-28 09:11 | Report Abuse

Hope can sustain

Posted by titan3322 > 2020-09-28 09:22 | Report Abuse

Kan sya tarak bohong punnya but gone up too much in short span d

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2020-09-28 09:26 | Report Abuse

Don’t enter now. All Facebook stock gurus are promoting. Wait until the next dip. Buy for long term. Everyone is talking about it

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2020-09-28 09:26 | Report Abuse

We ikan bilis only. Don’t join the pump and dump

Posted by investortrader88 > 2020-09-28 09:33 | Report Abuse

huat ahhhhhhh. !

Posted by Felicity > 2020-09-28 10:00 | Report Abuse

Thanks to Choivo

Posted by aliyusof > 2020-09-28 10:14 | Report Abuse

Can buy this and sleep well....fundamentally strong, good upside vs least downside mid or long term. Not for speculative trade short term.

Posted by LiimInvest > 2020-09-28 10:23 | Report Abuse

1st TP 2.50

Posted by LearningInvestor > 2020-09-28 10:27 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/jomnterry/2020-09-25-story-h1513550839-LCTITAN_ALL_TIME_HIGH_SALES_VOLUME_AT_ELEVATED_ASPS_AND.jsp
As PE and PP are the major products of LCTITAN and the article has mentioned that Polypropylene (PP) is a rigid and crystalline thermoplastic used widely in everyday objects like packaging trays, household products, battery cases, medical devices (gloves, masks, syringes), etc so will it catch up with the gloves and the plastics packaging counters like SCGM in terms of stock prices . Any comments

Posted by Tkeng > 2020-09-28 10:38 | Report Abuse

Took back capital and profit at 2.10. Let free shares ride. Good luck.

Posted by Esperian > 2020-09-28 11:01 | Report Abuse

VS took 3 months to go from 1.0 to 2.0, Lctitan ?

Posted by DannyArcher > 2020-09-28 11:42 | Report Abuse

@LearningInvestor

PE and PP are raw materials, when raw material prices are low, the profit for these raw material related companies are low too. For example, when oil price is low, sugar price is low, palm oil price is low, gold price is low, what are the profit for O&G companies? PPB profit up or down? Palm oil companies profit up or down? Gold mining companies make more or less profit when gold price is down?

This is common sense, when PE and PP price is low, Lotte will sell low too. Somemore now lockdown and recession, Lotte will want to sell low and lock in any future contract to avoid losses. Plus, the biggest buyer of PE and PP are construction and automotive, not packaging. Tell me, where is this huge profit coming from?

You buy O&G companies when oil price goes up, right? same goes with palm oil companies. Simple logic, they are going to make more money. So, what makes Lotte different? If Lotte can make huge profit because raw material price drop, then won't Petronas make huge profit too? You may argue no demand for oil now, and I can say the same thing goes with Lotte PE and PP too. Packaging constitute about 30% of their sales, majority is construction and automotive, so how in the world can Lotte make more? In fact, sales in Lotte probably drop or not growing.

if you are a sales man and it is recession now, your 2 major client Construction and Automotive cut down on purchase, what to do you? raise the price of your PE and PP or drop the price because the raw material cost drop?

Also, PE and PP price may drop, this doesn't mean sudden profit. I bet Lotte hedge their purchase too, so they are required to buy oil at pre-covid price. PE and PP price drop because every raw material manufacturer are throwing price, this is logic, it is not possible for Lotte to maintain the price while other throw.

think about it again. palm oil companies like IOI, GenP, UtdPlt makes more money or less when palm oil price are high?

Posted by CUTLOST > 2020-09-28 12:16 | Report Abuse

Sold 2.10 Tq

Posted by kai8994 > 2020-09-28 12:18 | Report Abuse

Looking at ASP alone would not tell a complete picture. One should focus on margin spread (ASP - Naphtha Cost) instead.

The Management expect to see continual increase of margin spread (higher than 2019 already) and volume (record volume achieved in May & June already) in second half. Please refer to slides below:-

https://www.lottechem.my/upload/webBoard/LB15/LB15_a_20208515276.pdf

Posted by aliyusof > 2020-09-28 12:25 | Report Abuse

Yes, profit are attributable to (1) margin spread (ASP less naprha cost less lower production and selling cost due to larger economy of production/sale scale) (2) size of sales volume achieved.

Posted by DannyArcher > 2020-09-28 12:50 | Report Abuse

@kai8994

Slide number 6
- Expected product average selling prices (ASP) uptrend on
moderate basis
- Uptrend seen in naphtha price amid oil price recovery

I dont see crazy here, just normal, not like X3 in the 'research'

Posted by kai8994 > 2020-09-28 13:15 | Report Abuse

No idea whether it will x3 or not, but oil price did not recover, in fact it has dropped to around USD41 - 42 from USD45 - 46.

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-09-28 13:29 | Report Abuse

Made some contra gain. Thx

Posted by soros228 > 2020-09-28 13:57 | Report Abuse

Well done. Good to take profit.

Posted by goldeneye > 2020-09-28 14:01 | Report Abuse

next qr will speak itself. wait and see... :)

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-09-28 15:53 | Report Abuse

Large drop in cost or strong increase in prices, in a low margin volume business gives rise to exponentially higher profit numbers, due to operating leverage.

Look at gloves, at first people think 10% increase in price equal to 10% increase in profit, before suddenly someone realized increase in price or reduction in costs is very different from increase in volume when it comes to profit numbers.



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Posted by kai8994 > Sep 28, 2020 1:15 PM | Report Abuse

No idea whether it will x3 or not, but oil price did not recover, in fact it has dropped to around USD41 - 42 from USD45 - 46.

Posted by Henry8833 > 2020-09-28 16:21 | Report Abuse

At this price is still a good buy. But this is also similar to glove and O&G stocks which are seasonal in nature. How long can this last? 2 years?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-09-28 16:46 | Report Abuse

Buy this at week 1 at the bottom of a seasonal cycle, and you should have a good outcome i think.

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Posted by Henry8833 > Sep 28, 2020 4:21 PM | Report Abuse

At this price is still a good buy. But this is also similar to glove and O&G stocks which are seasonal in nature. How long can this last? 2 years?

Posted by Henry8833 > 2020-09-28 16:53 | Report Abuse

Yes. Thanks for the writeup.

Posted by Henry8833 > 2020-09-28 16:57 | Report Abuse

Over last 5 years, we can only make good return by discovering bottom of a seasonal cycle stocks, like year 2016 Air Asia, 2017-2018 Steel stocks, end 2018 and 2019 O& G stocks, 2020 glove stocks. Let hope Lctitan and Pchemical will shine in 2020 as well