Posted by Ravi1969 > 2024-04-04 17:27 | Report Abuse

Please don't compare FF with DLMI. FF has a far better product

Posted by NoTimeToTrade > 2024-04-04 17:35 | Report Abuse

CharlieM, here is your free answer.

"FFB owns one of the largest remaining gene banks of the original Australian Friesian Sahiwal (AFS) cattle globally. AFS genes are resistant to high humidity and temperatures, which is typical of Malaysian weather."

FFB owns the genetic rights to this breed of cow, so essentially this Intellectual Property is worth more than the milk. They sell cow sperm.

Posted by MULTIEVER > 2024-04-04 22:37 | Report Abuse

Better product does not mean nor equal to better stocks!

We are here (Maybe not you) because we do analysis fundamental and invest stocks that have potential to gain wealth.

Product wise, you can have your own opinion, nothing is absolutely wrong or correct.
Ultimately, consumer is the one who actually buy the milk from their preferred brand.

Take my word, forget those "mis-concept" that tells you Fantastic product = Fantastic Stock.

You never gain any wealth when stock valuation is extremely ridiculous HIGH.

If you dont know how to measure and judge stock's valuation, just google it. there are many plenty videos, articles and site that help you highlight fundamental metrics and even teach you manually to calculate stock's valuation.

if you still have no idea, just stay away from stocks, instead buy your favored milk from grocer. you dont belong to here.

Posted by NoTimeToTrade > 2024-04-05 12:24 | Report Abuse

MULTIEVER, why you even in this forum if you do not like nor hold FFB shares? Don't stress yourself, just go back to DLady forum and you'll be blissfully happy with your decision.

Posted by MULTIEVER > 2024-04-05 12:55 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/hti/advice

Don't get suckered by big growth stories
Buffett further reminded investors that he and Berkshire's Vice Chairman, Charlie Munger, "avoid businesses whose futures we can't evaluate, no matter how exciting their products may be."

Most investors who bet on the auto industry in 1910, planes in 1930 or TV makers in 1950 ended up losing their shirts, even though the products really did change the world. "Dramatic growth" doesn't always lead to high profit margins and returns on capital.

Posted by MULTIEVER > 2024-04-05 12:58 | Report Abuse

NoTimeToTrade

MULTIEVER, why you even in this forum if you do not like nor hold FFB shares? Don't stress yourself, just go back to DLady forum and you'll be blissfully happy with your decision.

30 minutes ago

Btw, i drink FFB milk every morning since it IPO. i like the new choco mint milk. cheers
here is the song for you and FFB shareholders 😘
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J36z7AnhvOM&ab_channel=RHINO

Posted by KingKKK > 2024-04-06 08:20 | Report Abuse

CONSUMER Sector (KingKKK) - Unveiling Potential Q2 Stars: APOLLO, DLADY, SPRITZER, FFB, F&N, GCB, QL, MRDIY, NESTLE, BJFOOD

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/bestStocks/2024-04-06-story-h-184609490-CONSUMER_Sector_KingKKK_Unveiling_Potential_Q2_Stars_APOLLO_DLADY_SPRIT

Posted by speakup > 2024-04-06 17:41 | Report Abuse

PE is high cos big funds own it, and they are holding up the high PE

Posted by speakup > 2024-04-06 17:42 | Report Abuse

IHH is another example. Mostly owned by big funds who hold up its high PE

Posted by speakup > 2024-04-06 17:43 | Report Abuse

Another example CTOS

Posted by eugenewong794 > 2024-04-06 17:43 | Report Abuse

FFB is expensive, laggin PE ratio of over 60 but its not just its exp, move on, more important question is does it justify the expensive valuation?
MULTIEVER is right, fundemental analysis is important, but remember current PE ratio is based on past fundementals, when u buy a stock, ur profit is in the future earnings of the company, past performance is important but it doesnt always corelate to future performance, if u consider farm fresh earnings growth from CPG, thanks to both inside scoop and sim wah, its forward PE is ard 40-45 for FY2024-25, based on current market cap, its earnings yield is 1.85% and ocf yield is ard 4%, which isnt very high consider FD can give u 4%, but i think FFB forward PE of 40-45 is justified, for a few reasons
1. it has a strong brand - its the market leader in chilled fresh milk category and its 100% owned by msian, unlike DLADY and F&N, if theres another boycott of foreign brands, FFB might stand to benefit from it
2. pricing advantage - FFB has better pricing for its chilled category, and with good margin to boot, so they'll win a price war, this is due to them invested in upstream, so much so that F&N is going up stream. They claim they can do 10k L per milk cycle, but FFB MD say they themselves cant even manage 3k L per milk cycle, so i dunno how they can achieve it, and also FFB has access to top holstein genebank, and their hybrid friesian sahiwal cow is both heat resistant and still can produce a lot of milk. As for DLADY, i suspect the recent price rally is due to milk powder price coming down hence thier profits increasing, but if china economy ever recovers, expect milk powder price to go up again, which will hurt DLADY more than FFB.
3. diversification of revenue stream - they are venturing into CPG, starting with ice cream, they'll have 3 categories, <RM6 which will be branded as simwah potong ice cream, RM 6-12 which will be branded farm fresh and >RM 12 which will carry be inside scoop brand, expect the products to hit stores in june as they start production, CPG ice cream is dominated by 2 brands, nestle and walls by unilever, both of which FFB will look to steal market share from, which is good news consider its a local brand, they are also looking into butter but more interesting is they are entering the children milk powder category which is a cash cow business, and i personally do believe as a medical doctor, Mr Looi's view on infant milk powder that it shouldnt have too many added things that we cant pronounce, and i can see children obesity rates are increasing, even those on formula milk

At the end of the day, valuation is subjective, whats cheap or reasonable to you, is exp to others, but do note, recently KWAP emerged as substantial shareholder, maybe they knw something we dont ? or a sign of whats to come?

Posted by eugenewong794 > 2024-04-06 17:52 | Report Abuse

Yes ctos and IHH both have high PE cos funds are propping up the price but ask urself if any of these companies have growth potential? Compared to say farm fresh, but it's not that easy cos PE ratio is just a number and it's like comparing apples to oranges, it's better to look at it's peers, but I prefer to use earnings and ocf yield over PE ratio

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-04-06 18:08 | Report Abuse

does anyone know how much of local milk vs imported milk does FFB sell. last check at IPO documents under the bussiness review section, only 10% of FFB milk is from Msia and 90% is imported. so is FFB truly a fresh milk company? after so many yrs in bz why FFB not increasing their local milk business?

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-04-06 18:13 | Report Abuse

the same IPO report also says Malaysia currently produce less than 10% of milk and 90% imported. can anyone confirm? yes FFB is largest but the market is big to grow. lots of room for growth unless there is a natural problem in producing milk in Msia. if there is a problem how is FFB going to differentiate themselves vs the others players?

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-04-06 18:14 | Report Abuse

my friend says when there is a BIG opportunity in a certain sector all the players will jump in and it may end up being a curse for the sector as what we saw in Gloves recently after C19.

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-04-06 18:15 | Report Abuse

this is not a regulated bz like IHH and CTOS.

Posted by eugenewong794 > 2024-04-06 20:05 | Report Abuse

their moat for fresh milk business is high barrier of entry and cost advantages, upstream fresh milk business is no easy manner, the cows get sick, u need feed stock, if price increase, it eats ur margin, u need good land for farms etc, based on interview with Mr Looi, the impression i got was the early days of raising cows were a nightmare, hence i dun think its so easy for FGV and F&N to just go upstream and expect success overnight, even if they got money to burn. unlike gloves, its not so easy to just jump into the business. 1 of the issues the MD pointed out was the lack of vetenarians, u need a team of smart and dedicated vetenarians to take care of ur cows, and msia is lacking such talent, so i dun expect FFB moat in upstream to get eroded so easilty anytime soon

Posted by CharlieM > 2024-04-08 07:43 | Report Abuse

I like FFB I want to buy, but couldn’t find reasonable price for entry. When it crashed to almost RM1 last time the institutions were snapping them and pushing the price up.. I was hoping it goes sub RM1..

Buying FFB right now is like buying a company with annual profit of RM1 million growing 20%-30% a year at the price of RM60 million. Just to put it into perspective..

Posted by NoTimeToTrade > 2024-04-08 11:29 | Report Abuse

CharlieM, it went down to the lowest at 99 sen. The reason you didn't buy was it because you didn't know how much further it could fall?

Posted by eugenewong794 > 2024-04-08 12:17 | Report Abuse

if a stock that has good fundementals suddenly price drop without bad news, its a good buy no matter the price, u need to get rid of the mentality of wanting to buy at lowest price and sell at highest price, its impossible, also get rid of the mentality of wanting to buy at a fixed price ie 50 sen or RM 1, cos thats what everyone is thinking and you'll see price correction or rebound at whole prices ie 1.5, 2.5 etc, its all human psychology, it plays a big part in stock market. Personally i dun try to catch it at the bottom, i wait for it to rebound upwards before buying, i bought at 1.04 which is pretty good consider i had to dump maybank shares at market price to buy it, and u go in in batches, just in case the rebound is a dead cat bounce, ie if it falls further after going up, u still got bullets to accumulate

Posted by CharlieM > 2024-04-08 12:21 | Report Abuse

I guess i have this value investing mindset. I don't want to overpay. The price crashed last time due to raw materials prices skyrocketed during pandemic and only start coming down last year, It affected DLMI as well. Another thing that make me nervous is Ffb almost half billion debt.

Posted by eugenewong794 > 2024-04-08 12:38 | Report Abuse

I also have value investing mindset, but i tweak it to suit my own style, remember warren buffet started with fair companies at a cheap price but after meeting charlie munger (RIP King), he switched to investing in wonderful companies at a fair price. Whether u are overpaying it depends on ur own valuation calculation, and always do a forward PE calculation then add a margin of safety, current PE is based on past results, thing is almost all great companies arent cheap, most arent even fairly priced. In the stock market, u have to be able to think independently, to filter out all the noise and naysayers, make ur own decision based on ur analysis and have conviction in it. Thats the whole point of stock picking, is to outperform the market returns, but if u follow what market does, how to expect above market returns ?

Posted by speakup > 2024-04-08 12:53 | Report Abuse

FFB is certainly not value investing

Posted by eugenewong794 > 2024-04-08 13:02 | Report Abuse

As for the debt, the nature of fresh milk business is capex intensive, what more upstream F&B thats expanding and acquiring subsidiaries, either management raise money from debt or private placement, i think as shareholder we prefer the former over the latter, but if u look at latest QR, they are shifting the debt to long term ie non current, and into sukuk specifically, which i speculate that managements thinks it is more advantagous, but management did say no plans to raise any more debt barring unforseen circumstances. Now just need to wait and see if they can deliver

Posted by eugenewong794 > 2024-04-08 13:08 | Report Abuse

Value is subjective, whats exp to you is fairly price to others, none of us can predict the future, but IF FFB becomes Msian nestle 10 years later, does it matter what price u bought at today ? but again its is a big IF

Posted by MULTIEVER > 2024-04-08 13:58 | Report Abuse

eugenewong794

Value is subjective, whats exp to you is fairly price to others, none of us can predict the future, but IF FFB becomes Msian nestle 10 years later, does it matter what price u bought at today ? but again its is a big IF

10 minutes ago

back in old old days, Nestle and other big name international company they were never interested listing in malaysia but the end was somehow old government managed to "convince" them to be listed in our country.

here is the catch, all these big and old company have 1 common thing, their NOSH were extremely low. my guess is with such NOSH, their stock liquidity definitely will be lagging and hard to be manipulated by outsiders. which mean, somehow they still have full control in they company while they also fulfilled old government's vision which to be listed in malaysia. and PLC like nestle, their shareprice almost determine by major shareholders (Nestle mother company and national institutions) which they already pushed the price to extremely high valuation level and they can continue support it. (because no one else dump their share lol)

now, we come back here today, FFB boss sendiri said that he seeking for support and hope to be listed in malaysia. FFB unlike Nestle, got no mother company from foreign country, their situation and interests are totally different.

as far as i know, nestle malaysia number one shareholder is nestle itself (72%+) and FFB number one shareholder is rainforest capital (30%+)

now u see the differences?

Posted by MULTIEVER > 2024-04-08 14:04 | Report Abuse

what i wanted to say is, dont compare this 2 company as they have different POV from itself and timing also different.
此一时，彼一时

Posted by eugenewong794 > 2024-04-08 14:17 | Report Abuse

1. Big NOSH = low liquidity = stable share price, i totally agree, but with higher NOSH, and higher liquidity, it actually benefits retailers like myself as i can take advantage of shareprice weakness to accumulate, and no longer need to pay 12k plus for 100 lots of nestle shares, and i would say the shareprice is more efficient if its more liquid as theres more volume which helps the share price reflects itrs true value, whereas if its illiquid, few big shots can easily pump the share price, out of reach of retailers
2.in this context, what u perceived to be strengths ie 'controlled by foreign mother company', might turn out to be problemetic down the road, esp with all the boycott going on in msia, FFB benefits as 100% msian owned company, and rainforrect capital and farm choice food is both owned by mr Loi Tuan ee and his family, so skin in game, his interest are aligned with shareholders

Posted by eugenewong794 > 2024-04-08 14:21 | Report Abuse

When i say FFB become like nestle, what i mean is in terms of MOAT, nestle is so resillient and it has a very strong brand that they also have pricing power

Posted by MULTIEVER > 2024-04-08 14:22 | Report Abuse

you were right about FFB, they want catering malaysia consumer also retailer.

thats why i said, nestle dont even bother to be listed since day one in malysia, they jsut want do biz with no outsider but malaysia government insist to.

Posted by NoTimeToTrade > 2024-04-08 14:23 | Report Abuse

CharlieM, then you need to take your nickname's sake, Charlie Munger's advice and invest in great companies. FFB for me is a great company that is part of our local food security ecosystem, meaning the government will do everything in its power to allow for FFB to remain 100% locally owned and production is fully local.

Posted by eugenewong794 > 2024-04-08 14:42 | Report Abuse

@multiever, thanks, i didnt knw that nestle didnt wan to get listed, but im sure those investing in it are very grateful

Posted by CharlieM > 2024-04-08 17:03 | Report Abuse

NoTimeToTrade, you are not wrong, all your points are valid..

It’s just that I also subscribed to Buffets advice with his baseball analogy - “The trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot.. “

Posted by DouglasLiu > 2024-04-09 16:03 | Report Abuse

RHB Retail Research said Farm Fresh Bhd is set to resume its uptrend after surpassing the immediate resistance of RM1.45 recently, with strong trading volume.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/707461

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-04-10 23:09 | Report Abuse

FFB is riding on the young malaysian demographic where more and more ppl drink milk daily. the same applies to Nestle, F&N, DLIM and many others. pure consumer play. Buy any and U will make money provided they manage the company well. FFB is the new baby in town, so let FFB grow whilst the other 3 above have a system in place and not one man's decision.

Posted by DouglasLiu > 2024-04-16 17:52 | Report Abuse

Keep calm and drink more milk amid this bad market sentiment

Posted by eugenewong794 > 2024-04-16 21:08 | Report Abuse

i think FFB showed its resilience in these 2 days when 50% of counters are in the red

Posted by newbie5354_ > 2024-04-16 21:48 | Report Abuse

Farm Fresh sell milk whereas Nestle many products are they same sifus?

Posted by rohank71 > 2024-04-21 00:32 | Report Abuse

don't bother abt Nestle.. just Buy Farm Fresh milk.

Posted by eugenewong794 > 2024-04-21 08:13 | Report Abuse

nestle isnt a bad stock or company, its a good stock but okay company, there isnt really much growth in nestle, and the CEO is a finance guy, finance guys usually dun expand the business more than they control cost. Theres also the public sentiment towards nestle and boikot etc, farm fresh has more growth potential but it comes with higher valuation, whether its too exp or fairly priced, u make the decision yourself

Posted by DouglasLiu > 2024-04-22 09:57 | Report Abuse

Nestle is more expensive than Farm fresh in terms of share price 😄

Posted by LeverageLuminary > 2024-04-23 17:24 | Report Abuse

Farmfresh got more upside, end of story

Posted by DouglasLiu > 2024-04-24 13:16 | Report Abuse

EPF keeps collecting Farmfresh. This story will never end 😆

Posted by MILKMASTER2002 > 2024-04-24 16:52 | Report Abuse

freshhhh milk, once break resistance then fly

Posted by KingKKK > 2024-04-25 11:07 | Report Abuse

CONSUMER sector: Malaysia's Dividend Darlings? (KingKKK): Top 10 Stocks to Weather the Storm

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/bestStocks/2024-04-24-story-h-182882795-Malaysia_s_Dividend_Darlings_Top_10_Consumer_Stocks_to_Weather_the_Stor

Posted by Markv572421 > 2024-04-25 11:52 | Report Abuse

drop ?

Posted by Markv572421 > 2024-04-25 16:58 | Report Abuse

pity ...ffb retailers leaving

Posted by Markv572421 > 2024-04-26 09:06 | Report Abuse

terukk ffb ....

Posted by Markv572421 > 2024-04-26 11:31 | Report Abuse

drop because of Esos .....sien

Posted by Markv572421 > 2024-04-26 14:39 | Report Abuse

thanks FFB for dropping ...sheeettttttt stock !!!