Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-12 19:15 | Report Abuse

No One is Immune from The Party Effect or Recency Bias

WHAT IS THE RECENCY BIAS?

When describing the stock market each participant sees their portfolio’s performance
- from their perspective only and
- thus they are always “right”.

This leads to what I call The Party Effect or what Financial Behaviorist call the Recency Bias.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-12 19:27 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-12 19:42 | Report Abuse

Closed-end funds.

These neglected fund/stock hybrids are at their cheapest in years. Closed-ends often trade at a discount to the market value of their holdings. In many cases, you now can get $1 in assets for 85 cents. That augments the yield on funds that hold corporate or municipal bonds.

A handy starting point for research is www.closed-endfunds.com.

Be sure the fund is "unleveraged," meaning that it does not borrow money, and avoid any fund with annual expenses over 1%.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-12 20:04 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-12 20:19 | Report Abuse

Some reasons to sell..

1. intrinsic value < price -> no margin of safety
2. business quality goes south, management issues etc.
3. better opportunity


One good reason to buy more is when market tanks but intrinsic value of your specific company keeps growing..

Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-14 15:04 | Report Abuse

"We don't buy the cheapest stocks or the fastest-growing businesses. We buy the highest-quality companies."


Highest quality companies in Bursa:

Nestle
PBB
Heim
DLady

....

Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-14 15:56 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-14 16:03 |

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Posted by stockraider > 2019-11-14 16:05 | Report Abuse

One of the highest quality stocks are the highest overvalue stock too loh..!!

Always buy with big Margin of safety loh...!!

Posted by 3iii > Nov 14, 2019 3:04 PM | Report Abuse

"We don't buy the cheapest stocks or the fastest-growing businesses. We buy the highest-quality companies."


Highest quality companies in Bursa:

Nestle
PBB
Heim
DLady

Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-14 16:27 | Report Abuse

Nestle

Valuation

Maintain Hold with unchanged target price of RM159.60/share based on DDM valuation (g: 3.0%, k: 6.0%).

Source: TA Research - 13 Nov 2019

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-11-15 09:44 | Report Abuse

gruesome company 505

Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-15 10:20 |

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Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-11-15 10:51 | Report Abuse

515

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-11-15 16:33 | Report Abuse

525

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-11-15 16:34 | Report Abuse

I have no time to quote graham or buffett

Too busy counting money

Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-15 17:57 |

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Posted by Sslee > 2019-11-15 20:10 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha,
3iii
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/52902.jsp
Source: AmInvest Research - 13 Nov 2019
We maintain our UNDERWEIGHT recommendation on Nestle (Malaysia) with an unchanged FV of RM111.09/share based on DCF valuation (5.2% WACC, 2.0% terminal growth rate).

Care to explain what are the different between DDM and DCF valuation below?
RM159.60/share based on DDM valuation (g: 3.0%, k: 6.0%)
RM111.09/share based on DCF valuation (5.2% WACC, 2.0% terminal growth rate)

Thank you

Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-16 08:14 | Report Abuse

SSLee

Learn to manage risk. Risk in investing is always there and has to be managed.

Go very long term and you will look at risk very different from short term speculators.

Posted by 7300 > 2019-11-16 08:19 | Report Abuse

no fake economy,dont expect to make money,come n fake

Posted by i3lurker > 2019-11-16 08:28 |

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Posted by i3lurker > 2019-11-16 08:33 | Report Abuse

3iii

you dun remember more than 10 years ago
I told you Dutch Lady was under valued? at investlah
true enough price shot up tremendously

now things are not rosy for Dutch Lady if we follow the happenings in developed countries.

dunno, maybe we are Somalia, so may not apply here

hope so for your sake

anyway keep an eye on Dutch Lady. its no longer a buy and forget share

Posted by i3lurker > 2019-11-16 08:50 | Report Abuse

remember the movie Margin Call

Jeremy Iron says "Be the First"

you will always get good value whether buying or selling if you are the first, provided you are right of course.

if Malaysia is more akin with Somalia, then Dutch Lady will continue climbing, thats highly unlikely though under present conditions.

then again, just import another 10 million Banglas to become bumiputras and we will be like Somalia...and Dutch Lady share price will more than double, how likely is that?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-16 12:50 | Report Abuse

Posted by i3lurker >


Thanks for your warning on DLady.

Posted by i3lurker > 2019-11-16 16:32 |

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Posted by ahbah > 2019-11-17 13:59 | Report Abuse

"Historical data shows that the ten-year period between 2009 and 2018, Bursa Malaysia’s FBMKLCI Index has rallied in the final quarter for seven out of ten years, rising between 2.35% and 10.35%.

In the three years that the index recorded a net decline in the final three months of each year, there was a noticeable rebound near the end."

Rebound near the end is coming !

Got it ?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-18 20:08 | Report Abuse

Global funds have yanked more than $2 billion from Malaysian stocks in 2019, the biggest outflow among emerging Asian equity markets. More than a year after Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad took office pledging to boost the stock market, investors have been left underwhelmed by a cut in public spending, a lacklustre ringgit and question marks over the succession of power.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index’s 12-month forward earnings estimate has declined more than 12% since the Pakatan Harapan coalition assumed power in May 2018, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Business sentiment took a beating after the government shelved several large infrastructure projects and slashed spending to rein in its debt.

The share index’s price-to-book valuation of 1.5 times is near the lowest since 2009 and at a discount to the 10-year average. The market is 5% away from bear market levels. The KLCI climbed 0.6% at the close in Kuala Lumpur.


Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/11/18/malaysian-stocks-get-cheaper-by-the-day-but-few-want-to-buy#mOQ3PWqGyfGksLiC.99

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-11-18 20:11 | Report Abuse

3iii might as well buy bonds

Very safe then

And higher return than your Nestle

Posted by ahbah > 2019-11-18 22:04 | Report Abuse

"Posted by 3iii > Aug 26, 2018 8:10 AM | Report Abuse

The true measure of a successful investor is not a comparison of performance against a stated index, but rather how well a portfolio performs during down markets."

A investor is truly successful when he goes for the jugular on seeing money making opportunities ?

Posted by ahbah > 2019-11-18 22:09 | Report Abuse

Malaysian equities aren’t ripe for a re-rating even as valuations drop to near the lowest in a decade, according to investors.

The share index’s price-to-book valuation of 1.5 times is near the lowest since 2009 and at a discount to the 10-year average.

UBS Global Wealth Management remains overweight on Malaysian equities in its tactical asset allocation in Asia, according to equity strategist Lee Wen Ching who expects a potential improvement in earnings to boost stock prices.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-18 23:24 |

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Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-11-20 15:15 | Report Abuse

55

Posted by stockraider > 2019-11-20 16:25 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-20 16:26 | Report Abuse

>>>

Posted by stockraider > Nov 20, 2019 4:25 PM | Report Abuse

Remember just 3 mts ago...3iii was saying Armada is a gruesome company when it was Rm 0.22 loh....!!

Today Armada is Rm 0.54 loh....if u follow this sohai 3iii, it is very difficult to get rich loh....!!

>>>


Armada is still a gruesome company. Poor raider just is just argumentative.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-11-20 16:42 | Report Abuse

Yes it is a gruesome company, but an awesome stock

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-11-20 16:42 | Report Abuse

Investing is not so much about buying good companies

It is about buying well

(Howard Marks)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-11-20 16:48 | Report Abuse

An investor’s job is to intelligently bear risk for profit

(Howard Marks)

Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-20 18:27 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-22 11:01 |

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Posted by stockraider > 2019-11-22 11:05 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-22 11:09 | Report Abuse

How to Build a High Return Low Risk Stock Portfolio


A proven strategy for building a stock portfolio that gives decent returns while posing minimum risks. This is a long term strategy that has proven itself over 30 years of markets ups and downs.

There is no single strategy for being successful in the stock market. If we look at the great investors, Warren Buffet, T. Rowe Price and Peter Lynch, they all had different investment strategies. However, few people have the natural investment talents and insights that these men held. Below then is a strategy than can be used by the rest of us to earn high returns while maintaining minimum risks.

This stock portfolio strategy is based on 3 basic principles:
1. Diversify
2. Buy Quality Stock
3. Pay the Right Price

Posted by stockraider > 2019-11-22 11:22 | Report Abuse

BELOW IS THE REASONS WHY ICAP HAD FAILED LOH...!!

1. IT DID NOT SHARE BUYBACK DESPITE INVESTORS URGING THEM TO DO IT AS THE DISCOUNT EXCEED 30% AND MOST OF THEIR INVESTMENT IN FD.!
2. IT DID NOT PAY ANY DIV DESPITE LOW RETURN WITH HUGE CASH.
3.ITS ASSETS ARE INVESTED IN LOW RETURN FD WITH NO PROSPECT OF GROWTH.
4. IT HAS NOT DONE ITS BUSINESS OF ACQUIRING GOOD SHARE FOR INVESTMENT FOR THE PAST 5 YRS LOH...!!

UNLIKE OTHER INVESTMENT, U HAVE CHANCE TO LIQUIDATE ICAP IN 2020 IN A COMING VOTES AND MAKE A 30% GAIN LOH....!!

THUS NO LOST FOR U TO CLOSE DOWN ICAP LOH...!!

Capital Allocation by the Managers: Study their track record and their decision-making processes.
So you have bought a good company at a decent price. You have completed the essential part of choosing your favourite stocks.

By definition, this company generates a lot of earnings and the managers have significant flexibility in terms of how they allocate this money, with a wide range off options available to them.

It is important that the capacity to generate value through competitive advantages is also matched by an appropriate allocation of earned profit

Appropriate allocation of earned profit by the managers include:

1. Shares buyback and cancellation of shares. #
2. Dividends
3. Investments in assets for growth.
4. Acquisition of other companies to increase the company's competitive advantage.

The board should decide between these options based on the highest executed return and consequent value creation for the shareholder.

The only way you can get a fix on capital allocation is by studying the managers track record and the company's decision-making processes. It comes down to both a quantitative and a qualitative analysis based on criteria, with experience being assigned a very high weight.

The greater the extent to which managers have shareholding interests, the more likely it is that their interest will be aligned with minority shareholders, but this step shouldn't be overlooked in any case.

# (The shareholders should ask of the management board that they give consideration to repurchasing and cancelling shares. When you invested into the shares, you obviously believe the shares to be undervalued and this means that a cancellation would create value. The management need not have to do it but this should be on their list.

Posted by ahbah > 2019-11-22 14:08 | Report Abuse

UNLIKE OTHER INVESTMENT, U HAVE CHANCE TO LIQUIDATE ICAP IN 2020 IN A COMING VOTES AND MAKE A 30% GAIN LOH....!!

THUS NO LOST FOR U TO CLOSE DOWN ICAP LOH...!!

30% gain ... a once in a life time opportunity to make ezi moni !

Just by rolling down ICap's curtain onli.

Got it ?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-22 16:05 |

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Posted by stockraider > 2019-11-22 16:10 | Report Abuse

YES u cannot afford to make a mistake of not liquidating icap for a handsome 30% profit in 2020 votes, while u still can mah....!!


Posted by 3iii > Nov 22, 2019 4:05 PM | Report Abuse

CONSERVATIVE, PRUDENT OR AGGRESSIVE INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES

Three basic profiles emerged and helped set the necessary guidelines for your investment portfolio.

The three basic profiles and their respective investment objectives are:

1. You cannot afford to make mistakes: Conservative investment objectives
2. You are carefully weighing up your options: Prudent investment objectives
3. You want to grow bigger and better: Aggressive investment objectives

Posted by ahbah > 2019-11-22 17:06 | Report Abuse

YES u cannot afford to make a mistake of not liquidating icap for a handsome 30% profit in 2020 votes, while u still can mah....!!

Also, it got ultra high margin of safety !

Still no got it ?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-22 20:03 | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by ahbah > Nov 22, 2019 5:06 PM | Report Abuse

YES u cannot afford to make a mistake of not liquidating icap for a handsome 30% profit in 2020 votes, while u still can mah....!!

Also, it got ultra high margin of safety !

Still no got it ?
>>>



Depends on your time horizon.

If you are short term and wish to make a big profit over the shortest time, yes, you should support Laxey and gang.

If you are long term greed and believe in ttb and gang that they can still deliver long term good performance, your perspective will be different.

Neither are wrong. Both are right.

Look how diplomatic I am, unlike my dishonest friend, the raider.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-11-22 20:40 |

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Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-26 19:10 | Report Abuse

I almost never dived into and out of companies.

I sought good companies at a good price for long term holds.

Frequent transaction costs erode profits and timing is very difficult.

Yes, you can always find investments which do better than mine over a short term, or for a selected period, but then I missed the collapse as well.

My aim is to achieve my investment objectives over a lifetime of investing.

Posted by ahbah > 2019-11-27 21:05 | Report Abuse

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 27): Malaysia's equity market is forecasted to get better in 2020, riding on a strengthening Chinese renminbi.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of Aberdeen Standard Investments' 2020 Market Outlook, Aberdeen Standard Islamic Investments (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd CEO Gerald Ambrose said the strengthening Chinese renminbi will result in stronger capital markets in Malaysia.

yr 2020 ... a super bull yr coming ! Please get ready to make ezi moni !

Posted by 3iii > 2019-11-28 20:00 |

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