It is just an estimate. Currently, 60% of their profit comes from 1 FPSO, which is most probably FPSO JAK. The total value of all existing 6 FPSOs are about RM3.1B.
FPSO Marlim 2 will be ready in 2022 (2.6B) FPSO Enauta will be ready is 2023 (500m) FPSO PDB will be ready in 2024 (4B)
Total estimated value for the 3 FPSO is about RM7.2B. By 2025, the estimated total value will be approximately RM10B. A 3X from today's value. Naturally, profit will go up by 3X if everything goes according to plan.
Again, dont take what I wrote as investment advice. Do your own due diligence.
KUALA LUMPUR (June 9): Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) is allocating about RM60 billion for capital expenditure (capex) in financial year ending Dec 31, 2022 (FY22) compared with RM30.5 billion a year earlier as the Malaysian national oil company prepares for the resumption of business activities, which were earlier disrupted by Covid-19-driven movement restrictions, and as the group sets aside money for clean energy or non-hydrocarbon-related ventures. "This year, we expect to almost double that [capex] amount which is RM60 billion, because of catch-up and the return of [business] activities. This is also the time we have to make inroads in some material steps into the non-hydrocarbon side of things," Petronas chief financial officer Liza Mustapha said on Thursday (June 9) at the MIDF Conversations event, which was held virtually. MIDF group managing director Datuk Charon Mokhzani was the moderator for the event. Liza said that out of Petronas' planned RM60 billion capex allocation for FY22, about RM40 billion has been earmarked for the oil and gas business besides non-hydrocarbon–related operations while the balance of the capex allocation has been earmarked to finance Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd's (PetChem) wholly-owned subsidiary Petronas Chemicals International B.V. (PCIBV) proposed acquisition of the entire stake in Sweden-based specialty chemicals group Perstorp Holding AB for €1.54 billion (about RM7.02 billion) from Financiere Foret S.A.R.L. Petronas owns a 64.35% stake in PetChem, according to PetChem's latest annual report. Looking ahead, Liza said non-hydrocarbon-related income is expected to account for about 30% of Petronas' revenue. "[About] 30% of our revenue should be coming from something which is not related to hydrocarbons. "We have to factor in [business] growth, otherwise, we will not be able to manage the energy transition and we will miss our target of achieving [net] zero [carbon] emissions by 2050," she said. According to her, about 10% of Petronas' RM60 billion capex allocation for FY22 will be earmarked for non-traditional businesses such as specialty chemicals and solar energy. "Previously, I think there was never a plan on what rate it should be [for the clean energy segment] because there was no allocation from the top. So, it didn't really take off. "So, we need to rethink our decision on the capital allocation [for the clean energy segment] and put it aside, because if we leave it at that and let them go with the flow, we are going to be a year behind the target again," she said. Petronas' financials improved in 1QFY22. In a statement on May 31, 2022, Petronas said profit after tax rose to RM23.44 billion in 1QFY22 from RM9.22 billion a year earlier while revenue climbed to RM78.75 billion from RM52.55 billion. "Despite favourable [first quarter] performance, the high oil and gas prices are expected to remain vulnerable with increased volatility due to geopolitical and macro-economic uncertainties. "Petronas will continue to strengthen our operational excellence to maximise value creation whilst intensifying our growth and sustainability agenda in Malaysia and internationally,” the company said.
In a bull market, anybody with a finger can press the green button and make money. "Analyst" and "Gurus" get to get away even if they are wrong because the trend is on their side.
Bursa Techs Index is currently bearish due to development in Wall Streets. When it comes to bear markets, investors can take comfort from history, which suggests that where there’s a beginning, there’s always an end.
The market now is good for those who want to grow their money, definitely not good for those who want to make money trading.
Those TP are for long term investors. Hence, speculators don't see value in the research as the TP won't be reflected in short term.
Mabel adventure in the EV Investment
Front End - Dnex OSAT - MPI and Inari Charging Infra - Tenaga and Yinson ATE Automation Specialist - Greatech, Vitrox and PentaMaster
Double-digit growth continues unabated & stronger - The tenth consecutive month of double-digit export growth in May 2022 reflect continued double-digit growth in manufacturing exports (May 2022: +27.3% YoY; Apr 2022: +17.3% YoY), agriculture exports (May 2022: +43.9% YoY; Apr 2022: +29.8% YoY) and mining exports (May 2022: +54.9% YoY; Apr 2022: +64.5% YoY). Now you know why Techs Digital Economy is very important in Mabel's Value Investing Portfolio. Beside some of the above companies has multi business like Dnex..
Flytothemoon is right, share price do tell the real story, i do own yinson and i dont think we should tell people to keep quiet. The worse thing a person can do is to live in their own bubble not knowing what is the truth, like glove supporters in TG telegram group, only listen to one side and dont know what is the truth, those that spoke the truth in the group and immediately kicked out. I3 here got no admin that ban people from saying negative things, so you need to filter out what is good and bad.
Yinson problem is their debt, perpetual debt. If they can reduce their debt, then one day it will fly, i dont understand why they kept on doing share buyback when the money can be used to just clear some of their debt. Well, am not the ceo, since his entire family bought billions of the rights issue, and have skin in the game, they know what is best for the company.
I think the gains are in ringgits, as in paper profit, unless they plan to bring all of their money back to Malaysia, which I doubt they want to since some of their debts are in USD, therefore if they bring back and ringgit weakens due to fed raising rates, then it is double whammy.
yea, thanks danny . noob2021 you are no manner but i still respect your feedom of barking, so please mutual respect , thanks. can you guys imagine if yinson no share buy back that huge amount, what would the price now? why ppl keep selling if this is so precious?
bullmarket1628 dont know what he is talking, oil price has nothing to do with yinson. oil price does not effect yinson's profitability. oil at USD1000, yinson profit is more or less the same. goodness, do you know what you are investing in?
Peace99, Yinson can raise their fee by 1% if I am not mistaken, that's all. Get more contracts? They are kind of at max capacity already, out of the 4 FPSO they are bidding, they will only take up 1 job, which is probably the Angola FPSO. The CEO already mentioned this in AGM, they will not build more than 3 FPSOs at the same time, they cannot handle it. FPSO Anna Nery is sailing soon, will achieve first oil in 1Q2023, thus they will accept 1 more project. FPSO Maria Quiteria will be ready around end of 4Q2024 and FPSO Atlanta will be completed by Drydocks World in 3Q2023. Until both FPSO are ready, do not expect any new projects from Yinson.
In the AGM, the CEO said if they take up too many projects, it will post a systemic financial risk to the group and as a small team, they cannot handle this many projects. What they will do is nego with the oil company so that they win the bid but will only start construction of the FPSO when an existing FPSO is completed.
So, to your answer, you wont see many new projects, and the margin is fixed with 1% adjustment to inflation.
@dannyarcher you have a totally wrong perception, i am not saying negative comment is not allowed, all constructive comment is very appreciated. problem is some people behave like a desperate housewife, mumbling husband not giving enough pocket money, but content is 0.
@DannyArcher Many thanks for the clear explanation! Very helpful sharing of info from the AGM. I see why now. Perhaps, one way high oil price "benefits" Yinson is just that its customers, having made profits from high oil price, will pay whatever fees due to Yinson in a timely manner?
Peace99, even with high oil price, Petrobras was fussy with FPSO Maria. The good thing about high oil price is more contracts available, and more likely for oil company to pay for the FPSO, this will greatly benefit yinson as yinson cannot load up on debt anymore and rights issue or PP is already out of the question. FPSO Atlanta was paid by the oil co if I am not mistaken, thus, yinson expect the same for future fpso wins.
the good thing is, whatever the oil price or global economy is, yinson income is pretty much fixed. the down side is you dont expect them to suddenly make huge profit and expect the stock price to fly. not a stock for traders.
simply put it this way, their current profit from their FPSO is about RM77m, when all 3 FPSOs completed and achieved first oil in 2023, 2024, and 2025, yinson profit will most likely 3X, or 2.5X.
for those worried about their high RM9 Billion debt, they need to understand this, once all the 3 FPSOs completed and achieve first oil, their equity will rise too, estimated to be about RM10 to RM11 Billion, as oppose to current RM5 billion. So, pray nothing bad happens and 3 years down the road their equity will be higher than their debt, which I doubt so, because they will keep on seeking new FPSO projects, therefore their gearing will be high, but hopefully it will go down to 1:1 eventually.
their capital management strategies is a little bit complicated and not easy to comprehend for a lay person due to their usage of perpetual securities. on paper, the high level of debt will scare you off. unless you care to deep dive and understand their rationale of using these bonds.
i think the main risks investors need to care of is execution risk and counterparty risk. we can't anticipate future risks with much certainty, the only certainty investor can relied on is their track record and reputation over the years. and provided your risk appetite is up for it.
@DannyArcher Good analysis. I like company bosses who are ambitious but know how much they can handle. Yes, I will keep my Yinson, wait for 2-3 years, and see the progress on the building of the FPSOs.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....