HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD
KLSE (MYR): HIBISCS (5199)
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Last Price
1.79
Today's Change
-0.05 (2.72%)
Day's Change
1.79 - 1.84
Trading Volume
563,000
Prices
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Discussions
69 people like this. Showing 50 of 105,506 comments
Previously there's a forumer named twynstar who gave detailed facts based analysis on hibiscus. Wished that twynstar can continue providing insight into the company that we can all benefit for. LNG is just too difficult to comprehend due to it's benchmark unlike oil in brent. Just that to comfort ourselves, the acquisition is done when the range of US natural gas future is around the 3.2 region. Since then it has gone up to 4. Judging from wat management provided, the Brunei asset contributes about 8k bboe. I guess at current natural gas price, the asset itself would have generated about 40-50 mill PAT per qr.
3 weeks ago
My figures might not be very accurate, but conservatively speaking the coming qr might provide a PAT of about 140 mill. And the qr in may will definitely beat the 150 mill mark.
3 weeks ago
STFU, I have the same exact expectations as you. This coming QR 130-140mil and next QR more than 150 mil. I also expect NTA to revalue back upwards since the USD has appreciated back to RM3.70+ . But I'm not sure how the NTA will be affected with the inclusion of Brunei assets & debt. Looking forward to the next few days to collect the dividends 3 Cents. Will not be using it for CNY but to top up more HIBISCUS. Still have to average down.
3 weeks ago
Jimmy, hopefully the management can stun us with a better results. Make hibiscus the first company in bursa with PE less than 3 to show to the world how manipulated is our stock market. Brent above 80 for the whole year means 10.5c dividend is coming next year. I just don't see any negatives at this point of time.
3 weeks ago
For crude oil pricing, major indices were Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price.
For natural gas or LNG pricing, different regions, different index, different units ( per mmBTU, per megawatt hour)
For examples,
US : Henry Hub Natural Gas
Europe : Dutch Title Transfer Facility ( TTF) Natural Gas
UK : Heren National Balancing Point (NBP) Natural Gas
Asia : Japan Korea Marker ( JKM ) LNG price
3 weeks ago
North Sabah, Kinabalu, PM3 CAA and Anasuria Hibiscus all produce oil. Meanwhile, PM3 CAA, Anasuria Hibiscus and Brunei MLJ produce gas.
The PM3 CAA gas price is linked to the price of Singapore High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO). In FY23 and FY24, the PM3 CAA gas price on a US$ per boe basis was 47-48% of the Singapore HSFO price. This worked out to between US$5/MMBtu and US$6/MMBtu
Gas prices for the respective fields in the Anasuria Cluster, are as follows:
• Cook field – gas is priced at 75% of the Heren National Balancing Point (NBP) index;
• Guillemot A, Teal and Teal South fields – gas is priced at 85% of the Heren NBP index.
3 weeks ago
These are summaries from Mr Raymand Yap, CGS analyst. He did a very good and detail analysis of Hibiscus, published on 02/12/2024
Hibiscus has a much greater sensitivity to oil prices compared to gas prices. North Sabah, Kinabalu, PM3 CAA and Anasuria Hibiscus all produce oil. Meanwhile, PM3 CAA’s gas output is priced against Singapore HSFO, which is closely linked to oil price.
Natural gas prices in the UK (the Heren NBP index) will determine the pricing for Anasuria Cluster’s gas output, but the Anasuria Cluster’s production of gas only accounted for 11% of its overall production in FY24, which represented just 1.1% of Hibiscus group’s total production in boe terms.
Once Brunei MLJ is consolidated into the group accounts, Hibiscus’s sensitivity to gas prices will increase, but not by much. Brunei MLJ’s production of condensate is sold at prices linked to oil, and RPS estimates that condensate will represent 15.6% of Brunei MLJ’s production in CY24F. The remaining 84.4% of Brunei MLJ’s production is gas.
A 10% portion of the gas volume is sold at a fixed price of US$0.33/MMBtu under the Brunei Domestic Gas Supply Obligation (DGSO). The remaining 90% of the gas volume is sold to BLNG at a contracted ratio to BLNG’s realised price of LNG. We believe that BLNG sells at least two-thirds of its LNG based on long-term contracts that are pegged to the Japan Crude Cocktail (JCC) price and less than one-third sold is sold at the spot Japan Korea Marker (JKM) price. Consequently, we estimate that: • 10% of Brunei MLJ’s wellhead gas is sold at a fixed domestic price;• c.60% of Brunei MLJ’s wellhead gas is ultimately linked to oil prices [90% x 2/3]; and • Only c.30% of Brunei MLJ’s wellhead gas is leveraged to spot JKM prices [90% x 1/3]. Hibiscus disclosed that the actual realised Brunei MLJ’s wellhead gas in 2023 was US$4.70/MMBtu.
Overall, we estimate that on a full-year basis, only an average of about 7% of Hibiscus’s total production on a boe basis is exposed to spot gas prices, using proforma FY25F data as if Brunei MLJ had been consolidated into Hibiscus from the start of the financial year. Without Brunei MLJ, the direct exposure to spot gas prices is only c.1%.
3 weeks ago
Tqvm twynstar for the explanation. None of the posts here can match the information that u provide. I have always admired u in hibiscus forum just like dragon328 in ytlp forum.
3 weeks ago
Thanks Twynstar - Raymond Yap certainly knows how to put a comprehensive report together - I do find though that it’s overly conservative. Sure I understand some conservatism is ok but it would also be good if they put a range perspective in quantifying and valuing upsides also. For example you can’t say that Hibiscus is going to do nothing more than what is announced todate to increase profit / production in the years ahead and then put an overly conservative DCF model on this basis and derive ur valuation from it. The business is dynamic and they are very proactive,evolving and moving forwards. Already Raymonds model is out with both exchange rates and oil prices both more favourable to hibiscus’s bottom line. I’m sure the PM3 extension will also happen and none of that including the reduction in depreciation and amortisation the significant increase in extractible reserves is valued. Can’t believe they also only forecast a profit of RM240 million for the year.. seems way off. At least they still give a target price of RM2.8 by year end. Very generous of them..
3 weeks ago
Exactly watsy. Again and again the company has surprised us with earlier than expected acquisition. All of them has exceptional IRR. There's so many more exploration projects in the line which we can't gauge the discovery yet. Profit is definitely above the 400 mill mark and that's very conservative.
3 weeks ago
Aramco chief expects additional oil demand of 1.3 million bpd this year 😯
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/aramco-chief-tells-davos-he-expects-additional-oil-demand-13-mln-bpd-this-year-2025-01-21/
2 weeks ago
Hi Guys,
Just would like to update that as of yesterday 22 January 2025, shorties had covered 1,142,000 lots. Net shorts remain as 12,689,000 lots
2 weeks ago
Even kopi company can fetch a higher value than our beloved hibiscus. Wat is reali wrong here.
2 weeks ago
I guess it's time to take a leaf out of ytl's book. Issue bonus warrant to us. Make it more rewarding in the sense 3:1 or 4:1 ratio and lower conversion price.
2 weeks ago
Market Cap for KOPI is bigger than Hibiscus. What a joke. It's currently valuing 40PE and they've only got 21 stores. Will they ever get RM400mil profit? But markets are irrational
Used up the dividends to load up more. I saw some charts that predict Hibiscus to rise to RM2.4 by end 2025 and RM2.5 by early 2026, but I'm not able to find that chart again. Hopefully that's true.
Brent is still strong at 79.
2 weeks ago
Based on 1.90, HIbiscus current price is around 0.76 before spilt. During covid period it was hovering around 0.56-0.70. Fast forward today, it has not risen much at all! Undervalued!
2 weeks ago
Below 1.9 after all the gruesome months we have gone through. Seems like nth is working in this bursa.
2 weeks ago
Im sure Hibiscus management and main shareholders are equally frustrated. Will be interesting if the SBB intensify soon now dividends are out of the way. At 1.89 and oil still high (despite trumps wish for it to tank) with dividends around 10 cents for the year at least and profitable quarters ahead it’s even more compelling. Only issue is myself and other long term shareholders have taken a bit of a beating this past year. It’s all in the managements hands and control to turn this around…I am hopeful and believe they will step up.
2 weeks ago
the last time brent hit 78 on an uptrend, it was Oct 04, and Hibiscus was around 2.30. When brent hit 78 on a downtrend, it was Oct 14, and Hibiscus was around 2.20. Now, brent is 78 on a downtrend, Hibiscus is trading below 1.90. Sigh!
2 weeks ago
oh, when brent hit 78 on Jan 09, Hibiscus was at 1.95. So, by this trend, assuming Hibiscus fell below 78 and tried to climb to 78 in the future, Hibiscus should trade way below 1.95. So, with this up-down trend trying to cross 78, Hibiscus shall be free to collect after 10 cycles?
2 weeks ago
The operator is very cautious and meticulous. Tested up last year and now testing down to confirm
2 weeks ago
Something not right on this counter. Over manipulated. Only one way direction continue down while profit is stable. Very strange counter.
1 week ago
There's many counters in bursa which are over controlled by certain parties. Ikan bills like us always get fooled with. As long as it's a 1 way traffic mainly controlled by these parties, there won't be hope for all the listed companies.
1 week ago
It’s also very strange the company management not taking any action to improve investors confidence.
1 week ago
Yes. The SBB was persistent from 2+ till 1.9+. But since then the SBB stopped totally. Management themselves also not buying any personally. I'm an avid investor in hibiscus but my confidence has dropped to the lowest as the share price sunk below 1.9. That's the point I know nth is gonna happen
1 week ago
enigmatic [bamboo investing style]
Wow, share price is nearly half of NTA... Is it a case of "When it rains gold, reach for the bucket" now?
1 week ago
1.81. Gosh. Equivalent to old price before share consolidation 72 cents ! and they’ve significantly grown over the last three years. It’s almost embarrassing how cheap the stock is and all us long term investors are in the red. Almost anyone who has invested in this in the past year with a view to it going up has lost money. Extremely manipulated. Wish Hibiscus management would take more aggressive action with the SBB and send a message to the market
6 days ago
And it's going down below 1.8. pure BS. Just forgo all capex. Defeat the market with 10% SBB now. Complete it then conduct another EGM for another mandate of 10%. I rather the company not grow anymore if the case is forever dropping in share price
6 days ago
enigmatic [bamboo investing style]
Despite my cost of above RM2/share, I still have faith holding HIBISCUS.
I trust the management as they've not screwed up yet.
Although the continuous share price decline seems to indicate a disappointing quarter report, HIBISCS still is a growth at a reasonable price type of company.
5 days ago
Going back to covid pricing, only way out is keep averaging until Brent hits 90USD again......
5 days ago
As long as shale industry is still churning out oil, it's almost impossible for Brent to get back to 90 since there's not much growth left. Ever since China's appetite reduces, no one else is picking up those demand. Im more worried hibiscus will continue posting disappointing qr which justifies their current share price further providing a strong case for downside
4 days ago
Brent is cyclical, so better to put your money where it is going up and not stagnant or catching falling knife!!
4 days ago
According to a recent conversation with an investment banker, IBs normally win all their CW. Therefore, it is sad but there is an open C71 that expires on end July with a strike price of RM1.85. IBs will try to prevent the price from surpassing it.
Personally hope that this will not be true. At the current price, risk of further downside should be pretty limited. As long as Hibiscus continues to sell the quantity that they said they can deliver 8m+ barrels, NTA will continue to grow, and Debt will be less.
Even if the share price doesn't move much, the dividends is around 5-6% yield assuming a payout of 9 cents this year. Safe to put your money here just for dividends alone.
I will continue to do that for the dividends, to average down, and who knows, with all these unpredictable world events, suddenly oil price spikes up to USD80-90, we will breakeven even earlier.
3 days ago
Agreed with Jimmy. It's so obvious when volume is high, there's massive changing hands of owner. They just circulate the shares among themselves to protect their asses. They will only be stunned when there's extraordinary event like war or suddenly hibiscus decided for a huge special dividend after the expiry of their warrant, which will definitely push the share price high. We aren't playing with fishes but sharks. We are prey. We just hope that we can hide and persist long enough to survive. So called survival of the fittest
2 days ago
The little concern is this year CAPEX is high, hope the oil price stable at this level then got hope for the share price to move north.
1 day ago
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jimmylim11
Can someone provide some analysis for the Gas sold by Hibiscus? Since it is now 49% of the portfolio, we should look more into the Gas numbers as well.
How much is expected to be sold in FYE2025? Can be either in MMscf or MMBtu.
What is the production cost for Gas? This is to know roughly the margin for profits.
Could it be that the profits from Gas is still too little in comparison to oil sold that nobody is paying attention to Gas. Didn't see any analysis in any analyst's reports.
3 weeks ago