supersaiyan3

Although i don't agree on how you arrive on the profit figure, however i agree the profit figure is more or less like that.

Huat LAH

2017-04-13 16:14

elbrutus

what more can anyone ask for ....bravo..bravo

2017-04-13 16:23

purple98

how do u think the foreign exchange will gain 500k

2017-04-13 18:09

purple98

????

2017-04-13 18:10

valuegrowth

Batu88, I almost forgot the possible forex gain, haha

2017-04-13 18:19

batu88

Hi Purple98, it's not 500k, it's 500 mil
Just a wild guess from me for this number. AA will swift 45 fleets (including 7 with Sales and Leaseback Agreement) from MAA to ACC. It mean that the asset with existing book value in ringgit will book as USD in AAC balance sheet. So im trying to estimate this figure.

Method 1:
Last Q (Q4 2016) suppose to have currency losses about 300M due to weaken in ringgit from 4.1 to 4.5 but you still saw a positive foreign exchange gain 54m. Where is this 350M come from? This is because they book the AAC existing 29 fleets into current USD exchange rate. 354/29= 12M forex gain per fleet. Q1 might swift 45 fleets=564Mil


Method 2:
1 fleet worth about 15M-20M USD, with existing booking 3.5 Ringgit : 1 USD (wild guess). 1 fleet = 15M x 3.5 = 52.5M. Now you booking with current exchange rate which is 4.4 Ringgit : 1 USD, 1 fleet = 15M x 4.4 =66M. You asset become more valuable and there is a gain 66M-52.5M= 13.5M. Total gain for 45 fleets = 13.5M x 45 = 607.5M.

Method 1 or Method 2 also show that it's about 500-600M. So I just simply guess 500M.

2017-04-13 20:30

batu88

valuegrowth, it's ok. You also know that this number not really important. It wont effect you on any decision making in AA investment. Lol.. I just complete it for better presentation only.

2017-04-13 20:33

batu88

Even I include so huge foreign gain already, but my estimation in term of EPS (0.238) is still look "worsen" than Q1 2016 (0.315). Lol.. will some reporter / analysis say that it looks "bad" vs 1st Q 2016 after dilution impact? Lol... let's see what they say in next Q.

2017-04-13 20:39

eyewitness

If your estimate is 24 sen eps in Q1/3/17, and that contains a wild guess of RM500 mil forex gain, excluding that would be roughly 12 sen core net eps.
Not so hot.

2017-04-13 22:18

batu88

Eyewitness, it may look not so hot for you. But to me, 12 cent is superb already. 12 cent x 12 = 48 cent. Current price = 3.07. PE = 3.07 / 48 = 6.4

For your reference.
PE for Southwest Airlines=15
PE for Ryanair= 13
PE for EasyJet = 10
PE for IndiGo=22
PE for Singapore Airline = 17
PE for United Airline (which is very famous recently)=10
PE for Vietnam Airline = 15

So I believe that Airasia is still undervalued in my view. Minimum should value AA at PE 8 which is around 3.60-3.80. Once Airasia listed in HKSE, it is not surprise to see PE of AA will break 10. This is the reason why I almost sailang on Airasia.

2017-04-13 23:30

elbrutus

can any sifu enlighten us of d advantages or share pri
ce enchantment of AIRASIA after getting a listing in HKSE or NYSE ??
why is it so important to ve it listed at a overseas stock exchange espeacially like those reputable bourses mentioned above ?? tqvm in anticipation.

2017-04-15 11:53