Buffett’s oil bet 
FOR those reading business news headlines nowadays, there’s not a day gone by without reports on global oil prices. 
Recent headlines point to the “12-year lows” that prices have sunk to, the parity levels between the US crude benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and the global benchmark, Brent, as well as the rise in inventories. 
The losers from weak oil prices are the oil and gas explorers and the companies that service the oil and gas infrastructure such as rigs. The winners are not only consumers but also oil refiners, whose margins are better. 

So it comes as no surprise when value-investing guru Warren Buffett, who controls Berkshire Hathaway, acquired more shares in Houston, Texas-based oil refiner Phillips 66. Berkshire, which own businesses from banking and finance to railroads, bought a further 5.1 million shares in Phillips 66 earlier in the month, taking its stake to 12.3%. 
Berkshire has been raising its stake in Phillips 66 since early last year, according to reports, after trading a substantial portion of its stake in the company to buy a business involved in making additives that help crude oil flow through pipelines. It crossed the 10% threshold last August. 
What’s intriguing about the acquisition is that while oil refiners are making better margins with the weak oil prices, there is very little downside left to the prices, so the upside to margins is also limited. Since June 2014, WTI has fallen by nearly 45% and while prices could hit US$25 a barrel in the coming weeks, it won’t weaken further even as supply looks to outstrip demand for some time to come. 
Interestingly, Berkshire sold off the last of its stake in Exxon Mobil in the last quarter of 2014 as oil prices fell. Analysts believe that Berkshire still sees value in oil investments and that smaller refiners may be better prepared to benefit from a recovery in crude oil prices compared to the oil majors. 
Therefore, it’s a very typical move by Buffett, taking the long view. Investors who wonder about the stake acquisition will have to likewise look at it from a long-term perspective and prepare for more volatility in crude prices if they want to follow in his footsteps.