Trying to Make Sense Bursa Investments
Top Glove, Hartalega, Kossan, Supermax: Who Is Buying and Who Is Selling Gloves?
Over the past 3 weeks, the price of all the glove manufacturers tumbled down. By now everyone who has paid any attention knows about the short selling pressure imposed on Top Glove, Hartalega, Kossan, and Supermax. The funds poured into short positions on these 4 counters since regulated short selling was allowed again on January 4, currently exceed RM2.75 billion. This represents over 75% of all short positions opened on any stock on Bursa Malaysia. I have covered extensively the most dynamic part of the process and you can read about it here, here, here, here, and here.
However, neither short selling pressure alone, nor weak sentiment, is what caused the sharp fall in stock prices over the past 3 weeks. I have speculated that one of the main reasons for this sudden drop is the "in the money" expiry of a number of so-called structured warrants last week, specifically on the stock of Supermax and Top Glove. You can see my post on that here. The pressure associated with this "problem" has likely resulted in margin calls to certain stockholders, thus creating a perfect storm for a downward spiral.
Buyers
In the meantime, someone has been collecting. Below are the net quantities of bought stock by EPF by day:
| Date | Top Glove | Hartalega | Kossan |
| 8 Feb | 7,448,600 | 37,500 | 167,100 |
| 9 Feb | 5,731,200 | 1,357,600 | |
| 10 Feb | 2,090,400 | -46,800 | |
| 11 Feb | 810,400 | ||
| 15 Feb | 1,512,500 | 585,500 | |
| 16 Feb | 6,503,300 | 1,868,800 | 2,091,300 |
| 17 Feb | 1,584,000 | 2,000,000 | 812,900 |
| 18 Feb | 4,420,100 | 1,921,800 | |
| 19 Feb | 1,480,800 | 2,921,600 | 1,469,400 |
| 22 Feb | 3,700,000 | 2,481,000 | |
| 23 Feb | 3,473,600 | 3,330,500 | |
| 24 Feb | 6,837,300 | 6,424,800 | 1,370,100 |
| 25 Feb | 3,688,900 | 3,175,100 | |
| 26 Feb | 5,857,600 | 3,782,000 | |
| TOTAL | 53,626,200 | 30,766,400 | 6,496,300 |
| Current Position* | 498,319,166 | 226,949,489 | 223,975,700 |
| Change | +12.06% | +15.68% | +2.99% |
*Current position as of 26 February 2021 - last date we have data for.
Note that EPF is not a substantial shareholder of Supermax, so they are not required to disclose changes in their position on Supermax stock.
In terms of other substantial shareholders, Tan Sri Dr Lim Wee Chai bought a total of 7,810,000 shares of Top Glove in two business days, Kuan Kam Peng bought a total of 580,000 shares of Hartalega in four business days, while Lim Leng Bung and Lim Kuang Wang bought 250,000 shares of Kossan each.
Additionally, according to data from CGS-CIMB, Supermax tops the list of net buys by foreign investors for the month of February, followed by Hartalega and Kossan in positions 2 and 3. Top Glove has been the 8th largest net buy of foreign investors in February.
Sellers
Local institutions were the largest net seller of Top Glove and Supermax stock in recent weeks. After disposing of RM101.7 million worth of Supermax stock and RM69.9 million worth of Top Glove stock in the week of 15-19 February, the sell off continued and intensified. In the week of 22-26 February, local institutions sold RM204.9 million worth of Top Glove stock, and RM197.1 million worth of Supermax stock. Unsurprisingly these two stocks topped the net sell list of this group of investors.
Additionally, we recently learned that a popular investor has also disposed of his position in Supermax (source).
Conclusion
There has been a significant reshuffling of the shareholder base in the four big glove manufacturers. EPF, foreign funds, and insiders have been adding glovemakers to their portfolios. At the same time local institutional investors have been disposing due to reasons that might have to do with things unassociated with the business prospects of the companies. The next weeks will show if this was indeed the case or if local institutions have truly lost faith in gloves, leaving their international counterparts the opportunity to collect.
Important disclaimer: Any views expressed are for informational and discussion purposes only. None of this information is intended as, and must not be understood as, a source of advice. It is imperative that you always do your own research and that you make any decisions based on your personal situation and your own personal understanding.
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Discussions
13 people like this. Showing 31 of 31 comments
Ben Tan thank you for those valuable articles otherwise I would be selling off at a loss after many days of sell-off buying price for more than seven ringgit! now at least I have clear pictures what's going on...thank alot
2021-03-03 21:13
Ben, this article must have taken you hours of hard labor to tackle. Thanks for the write up. I believe the local funds you mentioned must be working in tandem with each other in order to coordinate such a deadly down spiral. I think we should expose these guys.
2021-03-03 21:20
This clarified the hands behind the major sell off of glove counters which i puzzled over the last two weeks. TQ
2021-03-03 21:33
Ben Tan, thank you so much for your efforts. I am a huge fan of your analytical reports. Please continue for the rest of us to assist us in making informed decisions! Thanks again.
2021-03-04 10:14
dawchok, KINGCOBRA, patrico8, Russel, Erudite, JuzzyOracle, thank you for your comments.
I hope the information I share helps you in taking important decisions. However, please do not use it as a single source of truth. Always do your own research and analysis as people's perspectives might differ.
2021-03-04 10:56
Thank you for the write up. Can conclude in that way: don't buy warrant or you have to sell it before the call warrant period. The banker will purposely sell off the share to drop the price during the moment. Correct me if i am wrong.
2021-03-04 13:27
Ben, in your conclusion u mentioned to wait & see the next weeks. Don't think that's enough to wait & see as there's still at least two in-the-money warrants (TG-c74, Harta-c40) expiring on the 22nd March. There's certainly no way the local IB is gonna let the price fly yet. Thereafter, the sun would shine brightly once again.
2021-03-04 13:33
As rightly pointed out by you also, EPF (msia investment godzilla) has been steadily & confidently adding to their glove holdings for the past 2 months, but with increased intensity last month.
In fact it can be said it's (tremendous confidence) coz daily the "acquired" numbers are substantially higher than the "disposed" ones. The golden unspoken hints that will reward those who have been paying attention.
2021-03-04 13:44
i think the catalysts are.
tg listing in hkex
supermax factory news in the us
2021-03-04 13:46
Ben Tan , thanks for your effort in collecting these informations . These informations are very useful . EPF are greedy when many are fearful. A good contrarian strategy in stock investment.
2021-03-04 13:56
EPF is not innocent
Disposed a bit first to make d price drop thn later buy back a lot at cheaper prices
EPF doing price manipulation
3,866,400
Acquired
Direct InterestName of registered holderCitigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident Fund BoardAddress of registered holderCitigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Level 42, Menara Citibank 165, Jalan Ampang 50450, Kuala LumpurDescription of "Others" Type of Transaction225 Feb 2021
177,500
Disposed
Direct InterestName of registered holderCitigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (TEMPLETON)Address of registered holderCitigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Level 42, Menara Citibank 165, Jalan Ampang 50450, Kuala LumpurDescription of "Others" Type of
2021-03-04 14:06
Thank Ben for the article. My two cents thought on this is Local institutions /IB are using "PSS" ie "Permitted Short Selling" to do this which was not banned all along even during the First MCO. This is a so call tool given to IB's by our SC to promote market making activities allowing them to short sell up to 10% of the issued securities and these data of the volume of shares short sold are only known to SC because I am unable to find it anywhere. These may co-relate to the structured warrants issued by the IB's. Hence the IB's would have in total at least 14% of the issued capital to short sell provided there can find the lenders.
2021-03-04 14:35
Funds are also switching from tech stocks to high yield stocks as you can see banking stocks are uptrending for past 1 month. Are glove stocks also changed from pandemic play to high yield stocks after adjusting for the last six months? Super for example, net profits for coming 3 years = mkt cap currently or PE3. Gloves are cash cow. It could be have net cash of RM 10b in next 3 years...
2021-03-04 16:02
Thanks Ben for the useful insights.
and
@Reply to EatCoconutCanWin - where is your not-misleading write-up??.
2021-03-04 16:07
Top glove will have dividend yield of around 13-15% this year 2021, 2022 maybe 10% etc.
One thing for sure, after this reshuffling, the value has merged and big 4 gloves are very oversold position.
2021-03-04 16:15
Topglove Warrant to look out for:-
22Mar
KIBB HB=Put Exercise 8.33 Ratio 5.00
KIBB C74=Call Exercise 2.66 Ratio 2.33
The lowest exercise price of warrants from 22Mar onwards up to 31st May is 9.26.
So at this time frame i think there is really no point for the any IBs to short Topglove anymore.
My guess is, looking at all coincidence, Topglove will release her quarter result after 22nd Mar, so the price will fly with less obstacles.
2021-03-04 18:12
Tks Ben for another fantastic write up. I always await eagerly for your articles. Also a big thank you to @myinvestor for the link you gave. Confirmed what Ben has been writing about FF being net buyers whilst local retailers and funds are selling. These FF are usually long term holders, hence seeing how they have been mopping up a fantastic company at below rm5 is very telling.
2021-03-04 20:03
Passivereturn, Top Glove already announced the release of February QR report on 9th March 2021, get yourself ready for rock and roll..
2021-03-04 20:31
I have briefly compiled EPF and the the major shareholders of the top 4 from 1-Nov-2020 to 3-Mar-2021
To summarized:
1. Most shares disposed by EPF = TG (211.7m shares) and Kossan (85.1m shares) from Nov-20 to Jan-21
2. Least shares disposed by EPF = Hartalega (21.5m sold vs 220.4m bought) from Nov-20 to Jan-21
3. Selling has tremendously slowed down in Feb-21 for all 4 companies (10.7m sold vs 95.3m bought)!
4. Not enough information gathered from Supermax
It seemed to me, the catapult is coming...
Link to the spreadsheet
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wdrfr0kjbDPqGIZawdVK3Uu4HFzM0ypb/view?usp=sharing
2021-03-05 00:03
i think FM changing portfolio in anticipating that other sector will produce much better prospect than gloves pst-covid era, such as banks, oil, construction..which still very cheap..can fly 2 - 3x, unlike golves..only can fly 50% the most. if u have supermx at $6..can up to $9 only.
2021-03-05 01:22
Thank you for the effort in coming up with this post. Ben Tan - this name has credibility due to the quality of posts, plus in the way he carries himself when discussing and debating. Cool-headed, mature and pleasant.
2021-03-05 22:48
Thank you everyone for your kind comments.
@CJkenho, it would appear that certain CW issuing IBs are more "lenient" when it comes to letting the price take its own course, so I believe the upcoming ITM CWs won't be such a big issue.
@katsul51, there was a certain amount of short selling last year as well, yes, but it was incomparably smaller than what is happening since Jan 4. I believe the shorting limit is for all types of short selling together.
@tamp0i that's a great spreadsheet, thank you. Just a small note that sometimes when LWC buys shares, a few announcements are made, because of his related parties.
2021-03-06 18:59
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dawchok
Thks for the good info.
2021-03-03 18:56