Icon8888 Gossips About Stocks
(Icon) Election Coming ? Any Good Stocks To Punt ?
Recently there are a lot of speculations that the Prime Minister will be calling for election soon. If that indeed happens, is there anything we can do to position ourselves in the stock market ?
To answer the above question, I did a quick study on certain Blue Chips to find out whether past election (5 May 2013) had any impact on their share price.
Affin
Affin started going up on 4 March 2013 (RM3.32). One day before election, it closed at RM3.46, up 4.2%.
AmBank
AmBank started going up on 25 February 2013 (RM6.32). One day before election, it closed at RM6.63, up 4.9%.
Axiata
Axiata started going up on 18 February 2013 (RM6.37). One day before election, it closed at RM6.60, up 3.6%.
CIMB
CIMB started going up on 25 February 2013 (RM7.24). One day before election, it closed at RM7.61, up 5.1%.
Maybank
Maybank started going up on 18 February 2013 (RM9.07). One day before election, it closed at RM9.59, up 5.7%.
RHB Capital
RHB Bank started going up on 25 February 2013 (RM7.86). One day before election, it closed at RM8.41, up 7%.
Telekom
Telekom started going up on 18 March 2013 (RM5.25). One day before election, it closed at RM5.51, up 5%.
Tenaga
Tenaga started going up on 18 February 2013 (RM6.91). One day before election, it closed at RM7.78, up 12.6%.
Concluding Remarks
(a) My study shows that all of the relevant Blue Chips (in the stock universe) went up by approxmaitely 5% during a period of approximately 8 to 12 weeks before Election.
(b) Tenaga was the Star Performer, up by 12.6%.
(c) A return of 5% is not exactly very exciting, unless you play Call Warrants, which amplify the gain and loss by multiple folds through their leveraging effect. Of course, High Reward comes with High Risk. I don't advocate taking big position to get rich quick. It is ok to just play a little bit for the excitement.
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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 9 of 9 comments
During the last election, O&G stocks got sold down like mad before the election because traders fear a change of gomen will affect Petronas' massive capex to boost production. I hope to find such opportunities in the market this time round.
2016-09-10 15:21
Flyingkite, cannot like that wat, i already made the disclaim that it just a 'rumors' without any proof wat, if it happen, like it used to be, it just a 'coincidence' :D
2016-09-10 15:27
Hihi. Last time and this time are different ball games. Punt on call w? I have already sweared to Tua Pei Kong not to touch these derivatives
2016-09-10 15:30
Been a while since any meaningful correction.
Complacency has set in.
People are too complacent already
2016-09-10 15:48
Possible date .....after next CNY 2017, between April - June 2017. School holiday. I think make sense..cause if they hold election in next few mth..BN will get 2/3 majority.
2016-09-10 17:36
In this case is better cash out from the market the laterest by year end.I hope the election by Nov 2017 school holiday. Than I can enjoy looking at my stock.
2016-09-11 10:42
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The conspiracy theory has it thatt :
- About the election times, the ruling party need a lot of cash to be spent on election, so the big tycoons here have to help to push up the market so that the ruling party can sell their shares and cash out handsome money legally, it works with the prnciple of you help me i help you. Pushing up the market also help to paint a feel good factor, and if the ruling party fail, the market would collapse, so you better keep them in charge to enjoy this good feeling. So, before election, just buy anything that the ruling party has shares in it.
- anyway, i have to stress that this is just 'romours' without any proof, bcos i dont want to be arrested :)
2016-09-10 14:49