Icon8888 Gossips About Stocks
(Icon) Icon8818 Is Not Icon8888
Dear all,
Please note that the following article was written by Icon8818, not me.
In the comments section, I saw some readers mistook me to be the author. I have got nothing to do with Icon8818. We are two completely different persons.
Have a nice day.
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 13 of 13 comments
Well, since you are here.
Then, may i ask your opinion on HY?
i) The respectable directors mentioned in your article already resigned. Do you think it is normal?
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/127661.jsp
ii) The crack spread story seems to be gone. Is the future of HY still promising?
iii) Initially HY plans to export oil from Malaysia to China as a more reliable and cheaper source of feedstock, apparently it failed. What do you think?
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/127720.jsp
2018-04-08 09:25
supersaiyan,
1. The mat salleh did not actually resign. He was on secondment from Shell as part of the takeover. His term was up, so he went back to Shell.
2. Crack spread did not really shrink across all products. Some products crack spread went up, some went down.
3. As part of the takeover, Shell has a Product Offtake Agreement where Hengyuan will sell its outputs to Shell for a 10 year term at market price
2018-04-08 11:11
Icon8818, you are not correct on your derivation below.
(1) You only need 1USD/brl reduction in refining margin to result with 160M reduction in gross profit.
(2) I think even in Q1 itself they would have bought high priced oil in Jan and sold at cheaper price in Feb and early March - big loss due to FIFO accounting.
(3) Not logical to say no shutdown and MTA in 2018.
.....................................................
Posted by Icon8818 > Apr 7, 2018 07:00 PM | Report Abuse
Gross Profit for 2017 was 1430M
Take out inventory Gain of 400M in 2017, Gross Profit becomes:
= 1030M
Consider Inventory loss of at least 100M, Gross Profit becomes:
= 930M
Consider Fixed cost of 150M per qtr x 4 qtrs per year:
= 600M
PBT for 2018 without any shutdown & upgrade
= 330 M
PAT for 2018 without any shutdown & upgrade
= 250M
EPS for whole year 2018 = 83 cents (considering the same exceptional refining margin in 2017 - Hurricane Harvey)
Do you know it only takes 2 USD/brl refining margin reduction to wipe out 160M profit in 2018.
If you consider that, the PBT becomes, 170M and PAT becomes 130M.
That is an EPS of 43 cents without any funny assumptions going forward.
43 cents per annum means 10 cents per qtr.
This means HY was generous to give a 2 cents dividend with a payout of 20%!!
2018-04-08 18:58
Compared to Q4 2017 average spread , Q1 2018 is at least 2 USD/brl lower.
Taking out the Hurricane Harvey factor , it will be easily lower by 3 USD/brl average for the year.
Just 2 USD/brl will wipe out 320 Million from its gross profit.
I am really really blind not to discover this implications much earlier.
I think we get hypnotized looking at the historical earnings and cant think clearly....
unbelievable
2018-04-08 19:03
Trump’s chaotic trade crusade is making emerging markets great again
Trump’s escalating trade war is putting sizeable, rapidly-growing nations less integrated with global trade flows at a unique advantage. That means India and Indonesia – and, perhaps, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand.
http://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2140795/trumps-chaotic-trade-crusade-making-emerging-markets-great
2018-04-08 20:25
Trump's new tweet
President Xi and I will always be friends, no matter what happens with our dispute on trade. China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do. Taxes will become Reciprocal & a deal will be made on Intellectual Property. Great future for both countries!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
TRADE WAR: Trump says China will 'take down barriers - it's the right thing to do'
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/943082/trade-war-latest-us-news-trump-china-twitter
2018-04-08 23:07
Trump hails friendship with China's Xi, suggests country will negotiate over trade spat
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/08/trump-suggests-china-will-negotiate-over-trade-spat.html
Buy!
2018-04-08 23:18
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