Road to Success
(RICHE HO) VIVOCOM – 多数人喻为的仙股和炒股
RicheHo
Publish date: Thu, 27 Oct 2016, 01:48 AM
VIVOCOM – 多数人喻为的仙股和炒股
近来，本专页发现非常多技术派的投资者不看好VIVOCOM，同时很多基本面师父也呼吁大家别碰这支股票，甚至有些投资者对于VIVOCOM的走势已经感到绝望。VIVOCOM真的有那么差吗？
自改名后，VIVOCOM的建筑业务占了整体营业额的84%。根据【CIMB】2016年9月的报告，VIVOCOM今年所获得的新订单达到RM2.9billion。此外，这家投行也看好VIVOCOM的订单额能在年底增加至RM3.0billion，预计可保持忙碌至2019年。目前，VIVOCOM仍然在和数方商讨一些合作/建筑计划当中，签署了一些还没落实的协议书。
此外，VIVOCOM也是北京建工集团 和中国铁建【CRCC】的本地项目交付合作伙伴 (Project Delivery Partner)。因此，VIVOCOM一直以来都被视为中国外资大量投入新兴经济体的受益者，作为“新丝绸之路”政策的一部分。每一年，VIVOCOM都会从它们的手上获得不少合约。自从收购【NEATA】铝业后，VIVOCOM一共从【CRCC】手上获得RM350m的建筑合约。
VIVOCOM在建筑价值链里，除了是项目管理顾问，它也是分包商。作为主要承包商和分包商，VIVOCOM能够减轻高资本支出，如投标成本。通过其项目管理的角色，VIVOCOM也能够控制成本、设计、估计施工进度等等。
通过这些角色，VIVOCOM可全面控制施工过程，并从进度结算中受益。因此，它的利润率比起其他建筑商来得高。值得一提的是，VIVOCOM在FY16Q1和FY16Q2的建筑毛利率分别是25.34%和24.66%。这是个非常高的数据。
估值方面，VIVOCOM在FY16首2个季度的每股盈利是1.23 cent。假设它在最后2个季度也交出同样的业绩，VIVOCOM的FY16每股盈利将会是2.46 cent。以保守8-10倍PE计算，VIVOCOM的每股潜在价值是RM0.20-0.25。
以下是一些投行为VIVOCOM所设下的目标价：
> CIMB – RM0.62
> MIDF – RM0.635
从技术图表来看，VIVOCOM在过去的2个月都处于跌势，从0.24跌至今天的0.185，相等于23%的跌幅。目前，它已经来到了最关键的支撑价位0.18。VIVOCOM曾经前后2次跌至这个价位，但都能站稳，并强势反弹。至于这次能否再次站稳并反弹，本专页还是非常看好。
第一，VIVOCOM是家赚钱的建筑公司。在还未被【INSTACOM】收购时，它已有良好的业绩记录。第二，VIVOCOM目前的PE只是12倍。这还未计算VIVOCOM未来2个季度的建筑贡献。
基于以上两个重点，本专页认为目前的价位已是个非常好的买入点。只要遵守好止损的规则，这笔投资的风险其实已经不大了。一旦VIVOCOM跌破并收低于0.18，一点要止损 (亏损<10%) 。只要站稳0.18以上，预计中长期VIVOCOM可看涨至0.24 (盈利 30%)。这也恰好形成了1：3的风险回酬比例。
大家恐慌的时候，就是建仓和累积便宜股票的好时机。
#VIVOCOM
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 15 of 15 comments
Now Vivocom is most resilient contractor with highly probability in succeed their bid.
2016-10-27 08:19
looks like a triple bottoms ... accumulation is enough to fly ? support at 18 is very very vital ...can swing either way.
2016-10-27 12:59
I check Vivo (LOA)letter of awards = confirm orderbook now RM1.18 billions. Constructions works in progress (RM 1.18 billions /3 average years ) future one years average revenue RM 393.3 millions
(RM 393,333,333 / profit margin 8%) = RM 31,466,666 future earning in one year.
EPS = earnings/total shares outstanding ( RM 31,466,666/share issued 3,234,000,000 )=EPS 0.00972
P/E ratio = price per share / earnings per share ( 0.185/ 0.00972 ) PE 19
based on shares issue 3.234 billions is to much shares cannot growth, reasonable PE 7
2017 years PE 19 is very expensive and overvalued company...
reasonable price for this company is around :
PE 7 = 0.07
PE 10= 0.10
2016-10-27 14:16
RicheHo, please do look at post-dilution, not pre-dilution.
thank you.
CFTrader
2016-10-27 14:16
We all know the true story behind this company. So we rather avoid the risk
2016-10-27 20:48
The profit margin for its construction segment is too ridiculously high. It's either they are too smart or the one who awarded them contracts are too stupid
2016-10-28 00:22
Posted by smartInvestor1 > Oct 27, 2016 08:48 PM | Report Abuse
We all know the true story behind this company. So we rather avoid the risk
that should be the attitude of a smart investor towards investing.
In fact, we already have a history about this company from I-power to Instacom to now Vivocom.
Riche, I wish to take a serious note on Jay's article just published.
2016-10-28 04:58
Sometime a rotten egg will spoil the basket golden eggs. I do agree I-Power to Instacom period, this company has not been managed well and director has been manipulating. But since Vivocom taken over on November 2015, many changes and better business platform has been implemented to transform a money losses company to profitable. Due to share base are huge, Vivocom easy been targeted by syndicate. But this does not reflect the good practice BOD try to move the company main board. Hope soon the share price should go back to its actual fair value price.
2016-12-27 19:48
Technically it seems to be a buy call. However its fundamental yet to justify the call for strong buy.
2016-12-27 20:31
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Isn't this head and shoulder?
2016-10-27 06:35