星洲日報／投資致富‧企業故事
瑞银调降中国今年成长至6.2%
市场话题
（华盛顿14日讯）瑞银证券在一份研究报告中指出，贸易战升级将拖累整体经济增长，因此调降中国2019年经济增速预估至6.2%。
报告指出：“（美国加征关税）预计会拖累未来12个月中国GDP增速30-40个基点。我们的基准预测是贸易战不会进一步升级、政府会温和加码政策宽松，在此情形下，2019年GDP有望实现6.2%的增长。”
瑞银中国首席经济学家汪涛表示，若美国对剩余中国出口产品加征25%的额外关税，则未来12个月可能会拖累GDP增速80-100个基点，即使中国大幅加码政策刺激，2019年GDP增速可能仍会放缓至6%以下，预计在5.8-6%，2020年的GDP增速也可能继续面临下行压力。
报告并称，在基准情形下，将2019年年底人民币兑美元汇率预测调至7，若美国对全部中国出口加征25%的关税，则人民币贬值压力会大幅增加，贬至7.2。
文章来源 ： 星洲日报 2019-05-14
https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2053764.html
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