WHAT DID THE PILOT of Americanwing say?

Julian Robertson said few days ago:"I don't think it's at all ridiculous to think of a selloff like we saw in 2008."

RISK ON or RISK OFF, this time round, if american lose confident with FED, no amount of QEs or ZIRP will help.  German 10yr - Treasury Bond yield is 0.17%.  And you have to pay the bank to put money in it.  That is reality.

Some said, long term treasury bond yields will continue to be low, but junk bonds will blow, which will burst the stocks bubble (USA) and eventually badly effect the economy (not that it is in a great state now).

I believe the picture above is better than a thousand words I say.

WHAT ABOUT PADINI?

Padini has RM100 million plus CASH.  Last two quarters doing badly, drop from RM1.80 to RM1.40.  At RM1.40, dividend yield could touch 7%.  Reason for the poor performance for last 2 quarters, clearing old stocks in anticipating with GST and high CAPEX (therefore depreciation).

I believe the poor performance is temporary.  At today's price, it is a bargain taking into account, say you can get a dividend yield of 7% and wait for the stocks to return after a year or two, as Padini has spend on capex of RM100m in 2014, much more than 3 years before 2014 where the CAPEX for expansion is only RM80m.  I believe the return on CAPEX will come in over the next couple of years, with extra outlets, growth in both revenue and PAT is expected.  

However, one broking house has a target price of PADINI at RM1.30.

That is good, so, it can stays low for a while for longer term investor to buy.  They are doing around PE of 15x, while the historical mean is 13.6x.  

On the pretext that it will go back to RM2.00 in 3 years, it gives a 43% return, couple with 7% x 3 years = 21%, total yield is 64%.  I.e. RM1000 invested will get RM1640 in 3 years.  Thank you to the Padini's management.

What say you?