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SOS Is Focus Lumber in a slumber?

sosfinance
Publish date: Tue, 06 Sep 2016, 06:57 PM
VALUATION DOES NOT DETERMINE THE PRICE, IT'S JUST A TOOL TO ESTIMATE A VALUE OF A BIZ

www.sosfinancialplanning.blogspot.my

"How do you save RM50,000? - I shared with a friend on how to do it. I got a term life for RM280 p.a covering RM100k until 70 years old. I cancelled my wholelife insurance of RM2,800 p.a. for the same coverage up to 100 years old. Save RM2500 p.a x 20 years = RM50,000. (PM0122037325)

.....IS THIS ARTICLE FAKE OR FACT?? ANYONE CAN CONFIRM?

FOCUS LUMBER

1.  Many sifus wrote about this stock, I have nothing much to add.

2.  The Edge Weekly, Mr Tong, bought in his portfolio lately at RM1.76 per share

3. At today's closing, RM1.50, the market cap is about RM155 million, which equates to the NTA.

4. Its cash balance @ 30 June 2016 is RM82m, or RM0.93 per share.

5. 1H profit is about RM8m.  Annualised is about RM16m vs 2015 RM32m.

6.  Prospects, as mentioned by management, not very good due to margin squeeze (higher labor and raw mat) and tough external environment.

7. At RM16m (2016 Estimated Earnings), ROIC = 16/(155-82) = 22%.

8. At past dividend of 8 sen (exclude 2015 bumper year of 15 sen), DY is 5.3%.

9. Capex very low.

 

SHAREHOLDERS

1.  KYY sold down lately from 6% to 3% (Share price drop from RM3.00 to RM1.50). Negative.

2.  ED bought some shares lately at RM1.50 per share. Positive

 

FLB WILL BE IN A SLUMBER FOR A WHILE

1.  Prospect not great, as mentioned by the management.

2.  Fundamentally is just reasonable, with ROIC of 22%.

3.  Earnings may recover, as price of raw mat is cyclical.

4. Positive since director is buying.  However, pressure from further sell down by KYY.

5. For long term, should be ok, near term, very boring. (Ideal price to buy should be RM1.30, DY at 6%).  

6.  Hard to find such a small cap stocks of RM155m or Enterprise value of RM73m (Cash at RM82m without debt).

7.  EV/EBITDA would be less than 5x can be considered.

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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 15 of 15 comments

moneySIFU

Very good analysis & easy to understand, thank you for sharing

2016-09-06 19:02

Hiu Chee Keong

My queue price is 1.25

2016-09-06 20:45

shareinvestor88

My queue price is 50c

2016-09-06 21:22

lloydlim

1.25 baru masuk!

2016-09-06 21:27

pisanggoreng

Sos finance,

Good advice

2016-09-06 22:31

monty88

May i know how do you came up with the cash balance RM82 mil. Cause i just check the latest quarter showing the cash balance was around Rm14 mil. Please correct me if i am wrong

2016-09-06 23:02

sosfinance

Look out for RM82m-RM14 = RM68m under current assets.

2016-09-06 23:39

shareinvestor88

Invested in unit trust ???

2016-09-07 13:33

股海無涯

sometime investment decision and anlysis can be simple and easy.... thanks for sharing

2016-09-07 13:56

speakup

PE still too high

2016-09-07 14:12

Benjamin_8888

1.35 can start accumulate edy, 1.30 may not reach provided bad next qrt result on this counter

2016-09-07 15:25

leekh5555

would appreciate if you could look into Latitude too.

2016-09-07 17:17

valuelurker

Sostomatofinance is it, invested capital IC is not calculated like that

2016-09-07 19:47

uncle988

nice sharing! I am waiting at 1.30 as well.

2016-09-07 23:00

shareinvestor88

Waiting 80c

2016-09-11 12:34

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