THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
CARIMIN VERSUS DAYANG: Both Oil & Gas Service Provider(Compare and Contrast Similarities & Differences) Calvin Tan Research
calvintaneng
Publish date: Sun, 10 Feb 2019, 09:29 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,801
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear Friends of i3 Forum
On January 26th 2018 I called for a buy on Carimin at 39 sen
See
TOP 10 REASONS WHY CARIMIN PETROLEUM IS NOW A STRONG BUY (Calvin Tan Research)Author: calvintaneng | Publish date: Fri, 26 Jan 2018, 11:41 AM
TOP 10 REASONS FOR BUYING CARIMIN PETROLEUM
1) AT 39 SEN CARIMIN HAS FALLEN BY 65% FROM ITS RM1.10 IPO PRICE. BUYING CARIMIN NOW IS BUYING AT HUGE DISCOUNT TO IPO PRICE.
2) MARGIN OF SAFETY At 39 sen with NTA of 67 Sen Carimin is selling at a nice Discount of 42%. This meets Ben Graham criteria of 30% Discount To NTA as a Margin of Safety.
Today is February 10th 2019. So in another 16 days it will be my 1st Anniversay buy call for Carimin
The current price for Carimin is up over 100% at 87.5 sen due to renewed frenzied interest in Oil & Gas Counters turnaround
Now I hope all i3 Forumers will trade carefully & not get carried away. I have picked this Topic: Carimin Versus Dayang to compare their current prices & prospects
1) BOTH CARIMIN & DAYANG ARE IN THE SAME INDUSTRY. SO THE TURNAROUND IN CARIMIN FORTUNE IS ALSO REFLECTED IN DAYANG'S QUARTERLY REPORT
See Carimin table of contents
Below is the Qtr report of Dayang
Now Let's Compare & Contrast
1) Carimin was 39 sen on 26 January 2018 & Dayang was 83 sen on that day Currently Carimin is 87.5 sen while Dayang is only 68 sen
2) Carimin made 5.01 sen while Dayang made 5.05 sen. Both nearly the same good profit turnaround
3) In percentage Carimin made 13.8% while Dayang made 17.3%. Dayang is winner here!
4) Carimin is 87.5 sen with NAV of 62.07 Sen while Dayang is 68 sen with NAV of Rm1.07 Ben Graham requires 30% discount to NTA. So Dayang at 68 sen with NTA of Rm1.07 still got margin of safety (37% Discount. Dayang wins again!
5) Let's go into the Top 30 shareholders of Carimin & Dayang
CARIMIN (Refer to AR) THIRTY LARGEST SECURITIES ACCOUNT HOLDERS AS AT 28 SEPTEMBER 2018 (without aggregating the securities from different securities accounts belonging to the same registered holder) No Name No. of Shares held % 1 Mokhtar Bin Hashim 58,870,234 25.17 2 AMSEC Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. (Pledged securities account for AmBank (M) Berhad for Cipta Pantas Sdn. Bhd.) 40,710,128 17.41 3 Alliancegroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. (Pledged securities account for Platinum Castle Sdn. Bhd.) 15,000,000 6.41 4 Maybank Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. (Maybank Private Wealth Management for Gan Hai Toh) 8,600,000 3.68 5 Emas Kiara Marketing Sdn. Bhd. 8,300,000 3.55 6 Tan Sri Dato’ Kamaruzzaman Bin Shariff 8,000,000 3.42 7 AMSEC Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. (Pledged securities account for AmBank (M) Berhad for Lim Yew Hoe) 6,078,000 2.60 8 Shatar Bin Abdul Hamid 6,039,638 2.58 9 Maybank Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. (Pledged securities account for Gan Hai Toh) 5,216,000 2.23 10 Intan Kuala Lumpur Sdn. Bhd. 4,727,000 2.02 11 Maybank Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. (Pledged securities account for Shatar Bin Abdul Hamid) 3,078,500 12 Platinum Castle Sdn. Bhd. 2,000,000 0.86 13 Muhammad Hatta Bin Noah 1,593,100 0.68 14 Wong Wei Choy 1,520,000 0.65 15 Maybank Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. (Pledged securities account for Shaharool Nizam Bin Mohd Kassim) 1,380,200 0.59 16 Maybank Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. (Pledged securities account for Che Nor Rubiah Binti Md Nawi) 1,369,900 0.59 17 Lee Choon Boey 1,021,900 0.44 18 Kenanga Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. (Rakuten Trade Sdn. Bhd. for Er Soon Puay) 1,000,000 0.43 19 Lee Chee Hong 1,000,000 0.43 20 Maybank Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. (Maybank Private Wealth Management for Lim Yew Hoe) 1,000,000 21 Tai Hooi Kheng 1,000,000 0.43 22 Alliancegroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. (Pledged securities account for Piong Yon Wee) 914,300 0.39 23 Poh Pek Boon 900,000 0.38 24 Lee Man Fah 750,000 0.32 25 Teo Chin Siong 745,500 0.32 26 Denis Sia Hook Hua 706,000 0.30 27 Kok Siew Leng 600,000 0.26 28 CIMSEC Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. (CIMB Bank for Tan Chong Wah) 549,000 0.23 29 Tang Chooi Lean 530,000 0.23 30 Yap Cho Leung 520,000
Top holder of Carimin is 1 Mokhtar Bin Hashim with 58.870 million shares of Carimin at 25.17% 2 more are Cipta Pantas & Platinum Castle Sdn Bhd Many are individual holders.
Let's go to Dayang now . TOP THIRTY SHAREHOLDERS (Without aggregating securities from different securities accounts belonging to the same Registered Holder) No Name No of shares held % 1. CIMSEC Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd CIMB for Naim Holdings Berhad (PB) 131,921,952 13.67 2. Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) 110,086,300 11.41 3. Naim Holdings Berhad 82,500,000 8.55 4. Lembaga Tabung Haji 76,367,600 7.92 5. Tengku Dato’ Yusof Bin Tengku Ahmad Shahruddin 65,916,675 6.83 6. Datuk Ling Suk Kiong 44,349,130 4.60 7. Naim Holdings Berhad 40,500,000 4.20 8. Vogue Empire Sdn Bhd 32,718,187 3.39 9. Kenanga Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 28,900,000 2.99 Datuk Ling Suk Kiong 10. Vogue Empire Sdn Bhd 28,500,000 2.95 11. Kenanga Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 21,073,200 2.18 Joe Ling Siew Loung @ Lin Shou Long 12. Joe Ling Siew Loung @ Lin Shou Long 17,812,500 1.85 13. Lembaga Tabung Angkatan Tentera 13,192,250 1.37 14. Malaysia Nominees (Tempatan) Sendirian Berhad 10,754,300 1.12 Great Eastern Life Assurance (Malaysia) Berhad (LSF) 15. Malaysia Nominees (Tempatan) Sendirian Berhad 9,400,000 0.97 Great Eastern Life Assurance (Malaysia) Berhad (LPF) 16 Malaysia Nominees (Tempatan) Sendirian Berhad 9,084,000 0.94 Great Eastern Life Assurance (Malaysia) Berhad (LEEF) 17. Cartaban Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 6,092,000 0.63 RHB Trustees Berhad For Manulife Investment Shariah Progress Fund 18. Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 5,747,300 0.60 Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) (I-VACP) 19. Malaysia Nominees (Tempatan) Sendirian Berhad 4,012,200 0.42 Great Eastern Life Assurance (Malaysia) Berhad (DR) 20. Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 3,484,700 0.36 Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) (AFFIN HWANG SM CF) 21. CIMB Group Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 3,391,300 0.35 Exempt An For Petroliam Nasional Berhad (AFFIN) 22. CIMSEC Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 3,300,000 0.34 CIMB Bank For Tan Boon Ping (M51034) 23. Maybank Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 3,169,100 0.33 Exempt An For Maybank Islamic Asset Management Sdn Bhd (Resident) (475391) 24. Burhanuddin Bin Md Radzi 3,095,280 0.32 25. Malaysia Nominees (Tempatan) Sendirian Berhad 3,036,500 0.31 Great Eastern Life Assurance (Malaysia) Berhad (PAR 1) 26. Cheng Ah Teck @ Cheng Yik Lai 3,000,000 0.31 27. Amanahraya Trustees Berhad (AFFIN Hwang Growth Fund) 2,964,300 0.31 28. Maybank Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 2, 870,000 0.30 Maybank Trustees Berhad for RHB Capital Fund 29. Joe Ling Siew Loung @ Lin Shou Long 2,578,125 0.27 30. Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 2,500,000 0.26 Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) (Amundi SC EQ)
This one looks interesting
NAIM is Top holder in slot 1, 3 & 7 with 25.492 millions Dayang shares at 26.35% At 68 sen that means NAIM has Rm173.3 Millions in Dayang
Great Eastern Life also in top 14, 15, 16, 19 & 25th positions
Others are Manulife, Rhb Capital Fund, AFFIN Hwang Growth Fund, Maybank Islamic Asset Management, Kumpulan Wang Pasaran (Whoa! So many Insurance Cos & Unit Trust Funds depend on Dayang.)
See this one
21. CIMB Group Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 3,391,300 0.35 Exempt An For Petroliam Nasional Berhad (AFFIN) WAHAHA!! PETRONAS (PNB) IS ALSO INSIDE DAYANG TOP 30
Why Is Calvin so bullish in O&G Counters?
Answer:
Coming Up Next
THE COMPLETION OF PENGERANG'S RAPID WILL CAUSE A BULL RUN IN CERTAIN O&G SUPPORTING STOCKS Stay tuned....
BEST REGARDS
Calvin Tan Research
See this Qtr Result of Naim again
SEE AGAIN NAIM HAS ALMOST 17% NET PROFIT HIGHEST EPS OF 12.8 SEN COMPARED TO CARIMIN AND DAYANG COMBINED (5.01 & 5.05 = 10.06 SEN) AND BIGGEST PRICE TO ASSET DISCOUNT Some time ago WHEN NAIM WAS TRADED AT RM1.60 DAYANG WAS RM1.00 NOW DAYANG IS 68 SEN WHILE NAIM IS 61.5 SEN QUESTION NOW IS WHAT WILL NAIM SHARE PRICE BE IF BOTH CARIMIN & DAYANG CONTINUE TO SURGE IN PRICES??
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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 43 of 43 comments
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2019/02/10/asias-top-tower-runner-sour-after-putrajayas-lack-of-recognition/
PH bloody farking racist! A champion is sidelined because of his race! WTF!!!!
2019-02-10 21:52
Naim is actually 3 in One
1. Construction
2. Property
3. Oil and Gas
Plus one more in progress:
THE Pan Borneo highway that will lift up Naim' s prime landbanks value in Kuching, Bintulu and Miri
2019-02-10 22:34
Both naim and dayang goreng just started , second round coming , just like carimin.
2019-02-10 23:08
calvin...why do u want to buy a share under Corporate Recovery ( equivalent to Chapter 11 bankruptcy of US?
Dayang has current assets of $ 500m, current liabilities of $ 1300 million...not easy to handle......what will be the final solution?
2019-02-11 00:00
calvin....many companies went bankrupt before because they were not able to pay their debts as they fall due.....
Dayang has current assets of $ 500m, current liabilities of $ 1300 million...not easy to handle......what will be the final solution?
2019-02-11 00:46
corporate Recovery to be administered by BNM is a temporary relief...not a permanent solution.....
2019-02-11 00:48
for dayang.......calvin just point out the + side....which is 10 sen EPS after 6 months......but surely, there must be a reason the share is traded at suck low levels......this, calvin didn't know/ didn't tell u or he ignorant?
2019-02-11 00:57
Naim drops so much is due to its relation wit Mahmud Taib d notorious ex Sarawak CM who is facing d possibility of MACC investigation
Better stick wit Dayang or Hibiscus n avoid Naim like a plague
2019-02-11 07:53
Politics?
See Tun Dr M
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/05/11/report-of-dr-m-taib-meeting-sparks-speculation-about-shift-in-sarawak/
2019-02-11 08:13
Posted by OrlandoOIL > Feb 11, 2019 08:19 AM | Report Abuse X
PH trying to collect taxes fr even small traders but not going after big fish like Mahmud Taid wil result in it losing GE15
Mahmud Taid wil b investigated no doubt
OrlandoOIL
2169 posts
Posted by OrlandoOIL > Feb 11, 2019 08:21 AM | Report Abuse X
After beating Hadi recently Sarawak Report wil definitely press on its case against Taib
So avoid Naim
OrlandoOIL
2169 posts
Posted by OrlandoOIL > Feb 11, 2019 08:22 AM | Report Abuse X
Naim is more dangerous now thn ever
Don't b fooled..
2019-02-11 08:23
All 4 Naim prospects are increasing positives
1) Pan Borneo High propels all Naim land holdings in Sarawak - near Kuching, Bintulu, Miri & other prime areas
For property, construction, Oil & Gas in Dayang all got very good turnaround results
See
3) POWRFUL EARNINGS PER SHARE (EPS)
So good. Naim has not only High NTA it has also got Powerful Earnings
And this is not just a one off
Refer to Qtr result
The Group recorded higher revenue of RM438.9 million for the period under review, as compared to RM261.0 million reported in the corresponding period of 2017. The increase was contributed by both Property and Construction divisions, which recorded a 78% increase in their revenue when compared against that achieved in the corresponding period of 2017, due to increased work progress and additional new property sales [see Note 17.1 (b) for details].
Property segment recorded an increase in its revenue and profit during the current period under view. The increase was partly contributed by increased work progress achieved. Higher new sales of about RM100.6 million (January to September 2017: RM92.9 million) also had led to the increase in the property revenue and profit during the 9-month period.
17.2 Review of performance of major associate Our associate, Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd. (“DEHB”), reported an unaudited profit after tax attributable to owners of about RM66.5 million, against a loss of RM89.7 million registered in the corresponding period of 2017. The improvement in the DEHB performance wasmainly due to higher maintenance work orders performed during the period under review.
So from here we can see that all three
Construction
Property
Oil & Gas (Dayang)
are doing well
Resulting is a nice 12.8 sen profit this last quarter
4) PAN BORNEO HGHWAY
This single connecting highway will increase the Value of NAIM LANDBANKS By manifold
In the 1950s One Acre Land in Shah Alam was worth only Rm5,000. After KL - Klang Federal Highway was built the Lands in Shah Alam increased by manifold.
Like the wild wild West of USA in its pioneer days those lands were given free to settlers. Same goes for those Lands in Pahang in early days. After the KL - Karak Highway was built land prices soared in Pahang. And the PLUS- North South Highway unlocked the land Value from Perlis to Perak... from Seremban to the Southernmost part of Johor.
Since NAIM is the Largest Real Estate Land Owner in Sarawak it stands to gain the most in Land Value appreciation
And spearheading its future
See
Naim Holdings Berhad has accepted the award of Pan Borneo Highway Project which is the package work for Pantu Junction to Batang Skrang in Sarawak. The contract is estimated to worth at least RM 1.1 Billion for Naim Holdings Berhad.
2019-02-11 08:39
As someone who lives in East Malaysia and has friends who are contractors of the different branches of the pan Borneo highway, and who has actually lived in Sarawak and have supplied to NAIM and DAYANG before, all I can say is wow. Calvin knows his stuff. Almost an the tenders are being renegotiated in pricing, and all the price are barely profitable for main contractors who don't have good internal teams. Those days of fat profits are long gone.
None of the proper sub-contractors want to work with them anymore, including us. Their payment schedule is horrendous. They are over leveraged and have no money. All dealings are in cash terms only. Cash before start work.
Their management is untrustworthy. The projects they take are beyond their scope of work and skill level. Even their best engineers and managers( people like Mr. Chan who left the mrt project halfway due to mass idiocy) have long gone and left for other MNC where they are paid triple the salary.
Margin of safety? There is no margin of safety when idiots are managing your company. Look at the board of directors. Not a single one is chosen for their skill sets, all are chosen because of the bloodlines or relationship.
Turnaround? Paper magic.
Long term the management is still the same. The company attitude and culture is still the same. The benefits and money politics are long gone.
Good luck.
2019-02-11 09:24
The trend now is O&G ma. Shit counter also can turn to gold. You look at the analysis. It is comparing against carimin share price. So it carimin up 300%, dayang also must up 300% loh....hehehe.....
1 just like to asked is carimin confirm getting 1billion project from petronas? or is it base on someone assumption?
2019-02-11 09:42
(S = Qr) Philip
The company attitude and culture is still the same. The benefits and money politics are long gone.
VERY GOOD INDEED!
NO MORE MONEY POLITICS CAN ONLY MEAN ONE THING
ALL THE PROFITS IN NAIM FROM NOW ON IS IN SAFE HANDS
HIP HIP HOORAY!!!
2019-02-11 09:42
How can you just proxy CARIMIN and DAYANG simply on those metrics. Isn't that just silly and crazy?
That's like saying najib and mahathir are the same kind of leader just because both are Malay, do politics in Malaysia, and have long experience in malaysian politics.
Each company is different, goes on different tangents and each company has different management who make different decisions based on their company goals.
Good luck Calvin. At least now I know what kind of companies you and your buddies invest in.
2019-02-11 09:46
Stock market.....short term is all about illusion, its all an illusion , all emotional and sentimental.
obviously calvin is not investing but short term......except he never says he is short term.......
2019-02-11 10:16
Zhuge_Lin Bro Calvin, when Pan borneo highway will benefit your jtiasa?
11/02/2019 10:08
YES
A DEFINITE YES!
2019-02-11 10:17
LOL....A DEFINITE YES! ah???
drop from 1.60 t0 60c leh. If go back to 1.60 also no yet benefit la. Interest also rugi leh.
2019-02-11 10:20
Posted by Zhuge_Lin > Feb 11, 2019 10:20 AM | Report Abuse
LOL....A DEFINITE YES! ah???
drop from 1.60 t0 60c leh. If go back to 1.60 also no yet benefit la. Interest also rugi leh.
SO SIMPLE
JUST TAMBAH AT THE BOTTOM LAH!
WHY YOUR SIFU OTB DIDN'T TEACH YOU AH?
2019-02-11 10:21
this calvin uses words like margin of safety.....but all his stock picks are rubbish....and if he knows what he is doing he better be short term ....because short term it is all an illusion.......
2019-02-11 10:21
THE QUACK TALKING WHAT?
NAIM AT NET TANGIBLE ASSET OVER RM2.00 WITH PRICE LESS THAN 70 SEN NOT MARGIN OF SAFETY?
2019-02-11 10:23
short term stock market is based on illusion.....trade if u must as long as u know it is based on illusion, not truths........
2019-02-11 10:26
Bro Calvin, you dun get me mistaken with Zhuge_liang oh. He is my great great great great uncle and he is long dead la.....hehe. Therefore, I no worship sifu otb le....
As for Jtisa....tambah ah? if every 30% drop also tambah, warren buffet also become a buffet for the shark la. So much to tambah meh???
2019-02-11 10:35
Calvin sifu, Dayang so-so only.
No hard feeling Calvin, just my 2cents opinion.
2019-02-11 11:26
Pussycats
I think as year 2019 unfolds the commencement of RAPID IN PENGERANG SHOULD LIFT UP ALL O&G counters
Good ones and later bad ones will also go up in tandem
When the tide comes in it will lift all boats
So Dayang and Naim might seem over bought for now.
It's true fundamental will play catch up later
Calvin very happy for all who bought cheap
Now if there are any short term day traders please be careful
Longer term Naim should cross back above RM1. 00
2019-02-11 11:34
Good closing at 69.5 sen on this day of February 11th 2019
Oil & Gas Thematic Play for year 2019
2019-02-11 17:00
Now both Dayang & Naim share prices have overtaken & surpassed Carimin
NEXT ONE TO CHASE UP WILL BE A VERY STRONG CONTENDER
PENERGY(5133) or PENT UP ENERGY!!!
2019-03-02 23:53
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
probability
oh no...calvin did it again!
2019-02-10 21:48