THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

GLEANINGS NUGGETS OF TRUTH ABOUT PALM OIL FROM TSH FORUM, Calvin Tan

calvintaneng
Publish date: Thu, 11 Aug 2022, 09:24 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,684
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Good evening everybody in i3 Forum

Today Calvin some Nuggets of Truths from TSH RESOURCES FORUM

And would like to share here

Posted by OneOracle > 9 hours ago | Report Abuse

Retired sifu told my friend.

It took more than 40 years for palm oil to break usd3800 box.
It is very very very difficult to acchieve. There are many times in history oil broke usd100 even USD150.
He asked my friend why no one ponder on that.
He said everytime Palm oil broke box of trading.
1st box 800 to 1800 ,
2nd box 1800 to 4000 and now
3rd box 4000 to 8000.
Every time there is a big fundamental shift both in financial and physical demand and supply.

Now the CPO is trading in 3rd box which signify the 3rd fundamental shift in this sector.
But the stock price of plantation had not reflected.
He said old economoy rerating is always slow unlike new economy.

What fundamental shift resulted in CPO broke into 3rd box.
He said its a long story. Next time then say.
He said its very difficult to find a stock to all in. And he already found it.


Posted by OneOracle > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

From 1980 to 2007 (30yrs), Palm oil support is around 850 . Resistance is 1800.
Why suddenly after 2008 it broke the resistance of 1800 and went up to 4000 resistance ?
There after from 2008 to 2020(12 yrs) . 1800 to 4000 is the box for palm oil.
Beginning 2021,it broke 4000 and went u p to 8000.
Is it because of demand and supply of palm oil? May be.
But the primary reason is QE .
2008 QE. Palm oil broke 1800 resistance. Then palm oil start trading between 2k to 4k for 12 yrs.
2021 QE Palm oil broke 4000 resistance. Then palm oil start trading between 4k to 8k for the next 12 yrs ?

There is a price for QE. PAlm oil always double when there is massive QE.

The valuation of Palm oil company will only start reflecting in 1 to 2 yrs.
The valuation of Palm oil company shld double or triple since CPO range is lifted from 2 to 4 to 4 to 8.


OK Calvin comments:

It is true from historical trends

Read again



1st box 800 to 1800 ,
2nd box 1800 to 4000 and now
3rd box 4000 to 8000.
Every time there is a big fundamental shift both in financial and physical demand and supply.

It reminds us of House Price Trends in KL


in 1990 a 2 Storey house in Taman Sri Petaling Cost Rm100K to Rm200K

by year 2008 house prices have shot up to Rm400K

Today 2 Storey houses in Taman Sri Petaling is Rm800,000


Same goes for food

It was 30 sen to 50 sen for a bowl of laksa mee in 1960s

in 1980s it cost Rm3.50

Today is Rm7.00 to Rm8.00 per bowl


SO IT IS A NATURAL PROGRESS FOR CPO TO GO UP FROM 

RM800 - RM1800 Range

Then

RM1800 to RM4000 range

And Now

RM4000 to Rm8000

By way of high land cost, wages, fertilizer & the weakening of currency against Money Printing

Not only CPO Prices are up

Plantation land

Used to Cost RM500 an acre

Later Rm10,000 to Rm12,000 an acre

Today asking prices of 

Palm oil lands 

Rm15,000 to Rm30,000 in East Malaysia


For West Malaysia

RM60,000 to Rm100,000

And those Palm oil lands with commercial potential

RM261,000 per Acre (Bplant sold to YTL Power in Kulai for Data Center)

THAT IS WHY PALM OIL IS A HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION TO PROTECT VALUE


Posted by OneOracle > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse

Sifu said.
Back in 80s CPO is below 800. KLK is only at 60 sen.
Now 2022 CPO is trading above 4k. KLK is above rm22.
Very Clear Trend.

Before 4k box break out plantation not worth to invest.
It is because many plantation is working for bank because assets and land are own through borrowing.
Now like TSH no longer work for bank . As they would be able to clear off all their debts. They are debt free.
TSH will have NTA 2.++ by next year.
PB about 0.5.
The only thing bad thing is boss keep buying. And that is also the good thing.


Calvin comments:


WELL SAID!

TSH HAD OVER RM1 BILLION IN DEBT LAST YEAR

BY END 2022 OR EARLY NEXT YEAR WITH THE SALE OF BULUGAN LANDS FOR RM731.09 MILLIONS PLUS OWN RM340 MILLIONS CASH DEBT WILL BE ONLY A MERE RM62 MILLIONS


WITH HIGH CPO TSH EASILY GET RM200 MILLIONS CASH A YEAR


SO TSH NO LONGER WORKING FOR THE BANK

NOW TSH LIKE INNO WILL BE WORKING FOR ALL DIRECTORS WHO INVESTED AND ALL SHAREHOLDERS



BEST REGARDS

Calvin Tan


Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your remisier/fund manager










Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 0 of 0 comments

Post a Comment