THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

THE STORY OF JAYA TIASA (Year 2014 - 2024) in i3 Investors' Forum, Observed By Calvin Tan

calvintaneng
Publish date: Wed, 31 Jan 2024, 12:52 AM
calvintaneng
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Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Dear Investors of i3 Forum,

Jaya Tiasa first came to our attention in year 2014 when Uncle Koon Yew Yin promoted it around Rm2.40 in i3 Investor's Forum


You may read the entire postings in Jaya Tiasa Tread in i3


https://klse.i3investor.com/web/stock/overview/4383


As of now see


You and 14 others like this. Showing 50 of 11,475 comments


There are now a total of 11,475 comments by i3 members & 15 people clicked "likes" 


Ok let's move on: and we will highly some quotes along the one decade


See this first post in Jtiasa forum


Posted by Wong Yi Shen > 2012-04-21 11:22 | Report Abuse

I guess those who are looking into this stock are investors....traders chat more :)


On 21st April 2012 this was first posted. And then for then next 12 years we now see 

 11,475 comments

 Posted by Grandma > 2013-08-17 19:25 | Report Abuse

Grandma wonder if KYY did indeed buy all 34 Million shares on open market. If he did, you can calculate when exactly he started accumulating and see the price difference backwards. Grandma already know the answer, but you can check to find the margin he has done since. You should be able to tell their continuous growth with Palm Oil coming in again especially June month.

Here is a revelation

(KYY bought 34 Million Jtiasa shares. Calvin comments in brackets.)


from where?

See earlier post

 Posted by inwest88 > 2013-07-25 22:28 | Report Abuse

Visit Dali;s blog on an article on this stock.

(So before Uncle KYY appeared in i3 he posted in dali's blog)


 Posted by Grandma > 2013-08-22 16:34 | Report Abuse

Jenny, Grandma advice you to read first on the article and have an opinion. Your answer for this particular counter is truly an example of a TA vs a FA vs a true Investor. If you check on the PE, ROE and Net Profit, you may not be encourage. However if you read the logic of a successful investor below you may form a better opinion

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/35212.jsp


(So Grandma first introduced KYY article to i3.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcle

just click above and read


And from KYY own words

See

Finally I am obliged to tell you that my family members and I have been buying most of shares transacted in the last 6 months and we have accumulated more than 35 million shares. I have never been surer to make money before in my life than now in buying Jaya Tiasa.

Ok this guy posted very sensible thoughts


 Posted by Liew Chee Khong > 2013-11-04 21:26 | Report Abuse

JTH needs heavy capex to improve production, its capital commitment in FYE 30/6/13 was RM220 million. It also has a bank loan of RM 455 mil need to be paid next year. Its cash in hand and unit trust investment only come to about RM 205 mil. If we take into account of its estimated RM 220 mil operating cash flow next year. It is still short of RM 250 mil, which in turn need injection of capital or restructure its loans.

Relying on borrowings will increase interest payments and increase in equity option will have dilution impact on EPS.

Unless in the coming years there is no further capex requirement, couple with productivity and cost control measures to improve profit margin. Then investing in JTiasa will be a profitable option. More so if the average CPO price can maintain at an average price of RM 2500 per ton.


Read again

Unless in the coming years there is no further capex requirement

(Calvin comments: Since 2013 Jtiasa has fully planted all its lands 171,000 acres out of 206,000 acres (rest are roads, bridges, drainages, rivers & others which cannot be planted)


 couple with productivity and cost control measures to improve

(Exactly, Jtiasa has now done its cost control & to improve its productivity. Loans have been pared down to almost debt free)


Then investing in JTiasa will be a profitable option. More so if the average CPO price can maintain at an average price of RM 2500 per ton.


(Jtiasa has started giving out dividends. As for maintaining CPO price at Rm2,500


CPO PRICES NOW CURRENTLY RANGED FROM RM3600 TO RM4200!) A NEW HIGH LEVEL!!)


See

CRUDE PALM OIL FUTURES

Market closed
Continuous contract
FCPO1!
Bursa Malaysia
3848 MYRD
+6 +0.16%





AT RM3848 from Rm2500 CPO is Up by 53.9%


JTIASA WAS RM2.40 WHEN UNCLE FIRST PROMOTED AND CPO THEN RM2500 CONSIDERED GOOD


NOW JTIASA IS RM1.17 COMPARED TO RM2.40 THEN

PLUS CPO IS RM3848 WHILE CPO WAS RM2500 THEN


PLUS THEN JTIASA TREES WERE YOUNG AND MUCH LANDS STILL UNPLANTED

NOW JTIASA TREES ARE AT PRIME AT OF 14 (11 MORE YEARS OF GREAT HARVESTING BEFORE 25 YEAR OLD WHEN REPLANTING IS NEEDED)


 Posted by Liew Chee Khong > 2013-11-05 10:05 | Report Abuse

If the free cash flow (net operating cash flow - capex) stay negative for too long. You can forget about dividend payment, JTiasa may have to borrow more to fund the cash deficit. Unless it can monetize some of its assets under its stable.

If JTiasa is at the tail end of capex spending i.e. most of its acreage was planted with palm trees. Then its ability to generate positive economic profit and free cash flow in future will translate into lower gearing, higher dividend payment and its MVA [Market Cap - (equity + loan capital)] will be on an upward trajectory.


(Above are futuristic forecast: 

. Then its ability to generate positive economic profit and free cash flow in future will translate into lower gearing, higher dividend payment and its MVA [Market Cap - (equity + loan capital)] will be on an upward trajectory.

EXACTLY:


We fast forward to now


See

Posted by sense maker > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

1 year free cash flow RM350m, selling now for RM970m. Apa lagi you mahu? Sure must buy loh till at least RM1.5b market cap.


(POSTED ONE WEEK AGO (NOW JAN 2024: OK FROM ABOVE WE SEE JTIASA FREE CASH FLOW IS NOW RM350 MILLIONS!)


 Posted by sense maker > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Hold for 2 years, if CPO stands above rm4k, this share will be worth RM2-2.50.


(AFTER 11 YEARS HOW TIME HAS PROVEN! JTIASA NOW GOT TARGET PRICE OF RM2.00 to RM2.50 IF CPO PRICE WILL SUSTAIN)


24th August 2014 (10 years ago Calvin posted warning)

Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-08-24 17:04 | Report Abuse


Now, Oil Price Should have spiked when Russia was given embargo because of Ukraine and Obama invaded Iraq. Instead World Crude Oil Prices Dropped. Why? Because of Surplus Shale Oil.

The really temporary thing is not Shale Oil but Soybean Oil. From Planting to Harvesting - It only take 3 months for soybean. A drought might hit next year & soy production could be wiped out.

So the threat to palm oil is more from Mineral Oil weakness which impacted biodiesel oil prices which lead to a drop in palm oil prices.


THEN SHALE OIL BECAME A GREAT DANGER!


SEE

 Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-11-28 00:36 | Report Abuse 

From now onward very bleak, shale oil hammering crude and biodiesel oil. All oil & gas and all palm oil counters will be hit hard.

And if crude falls to $30 a barrel Malaysia itself might be in deep trouble.

This is the time for extreme caution.


UNCLE KYY TOOK HEED TO MY KIND WARNING AND SOLD HIS JTIASA FROM RM2.70 ALL THE WAY DOWN BELOW RM2.00, BELOW RM1.50 & JTIASA CRASHED BELOW RM1.20


See Uncle KYY own Words

 Posted by yewyin33 > 2022-03-18 11:29 | Report Abuse

I wish to confirm what calvintaneng said about his advice to sell Jaya Tiasa in 2014 at Rm 2.70. In 2014 Jaya Tiasa has only about 55,000 planted hectares and currently JT has about 70,000 hectares. JT is very much undervalued. Based on the current market capitalization it is about Rm 15,000 per hectare or Rm 6,000 per acre. Where can you buy land at Rm 6,000 an acre??? All must read my last 3 articles. A few less informed investors said that whenever I post buy recommendation they should sell. In any case, these small investors cannot push up the price because the daily traded volume is tens of million shares. KYY


SO UNCLE SOLD OFF JTIASA FROM RM2.70 When Jtiasa's fundamental was poor

NOW UNCLE KOON SHOULD BUY BACK ALL HIS JTIASA AND DON'T MISS JTIASA BULL EARNINGS TIME LIKE NEVER BEFORE


Or Else Uncle will have the same Woeful Confession Missing Ijm Plant


See


 Posted by yewyin33 > 2021-06-12 16:37 | Report Abuse

I wish to take advantage of this opportunity to boast or to shame myself. I was a co-founder of IJM Corporation Bhd. In the early 1980s, we had a road construction contract from the Sabah government. The road went through a neglected oil palm plantation. All the palm trees were half dead. The government offered to sell us the whole estate at Rm 700 per acre with all the workers quarters free of charge. We bought the whole estate and we bought additional land at Rm 700 per acre. We employed Velayuthan Tan to take charge of the plantation. He is a younger brother of Tan Sri Krishnan Tan who is currently the Chairman Of IJM Corp.

We continued to buy more land and constructed a palm oil mill. Eventually we listed the company namely IJM Plant Bhd.

The total issued shares is 880 million shares and IJM owned 52% of the total issued shares which is about 458 million shares. A few days ago, KLK made an offer to IJM to buy up all the 52% of the total issued shares at Rm 3.10 per share. The total transaction is worth Rm 1,420,000,000. The share was selling below Rm 2.00 before KLK's offer. Unfortunately I sold all my shares long ago. Shameful

Koon Yew Yin


And how people replied


 Posted by stockraider > 2021-06-12 21:52 | Report Abuse

How could KYY missed IJMPLANT leh ??

Really malu loh...!!

Calvin & General Raider also manage pick this GEM b4 the GO loh!

No more rm 700 per acres mah....that is 40 years old grand father Story mah! Nowadays Rm 15k per acre consider very cheap loh!

Posted by calvintaneng > Jun 12, 2021 6:57 PM | Report Abuse

Uncle Koon,

This is a noble confession

You should be proud of the origin of ijmplant just as you revealed about MbmR.

Now you mentioned Rm700 an acre for Palm oil lands only confirmed the words of my friend Mr. Liew of Helang Camar. He told us long ago he bought Palm oil lands in Sabah for only Rm500 per acre. Many do not believe. Now your revelation confirms that Palm oil lands were that cheap in those days

IjmPlant is a well managed company. Mr. Shane the Assist Manager also very professional with his PR.

Well done IjmPlant

Well done Uncle KYY


Well Done But Missed Ijm Plant

Now better not Miss Jaya Tiasa!!


Calvin warned Uncle Koon to sell Jtiasa in year 2014 as Calvin saw danger emanating from USA Shale oil which hammered Crude oil below USD50 and in turn hammer Biodisel and then hit Cpo prices. Cpo prices fell to Rm1900+ a tonne

and all Palm oil shares went down


NOW IS VERY DIFFERENT


THE RISE OF GREEN ENERGY SWITCH TO BIOFUEL IN USA, BRAZIL, INDONESIA  AND IN EU WILL NOW GIVE SUPPORT TO PALM OIL

AS A REVERSAL OF FORTUNES ALL PALM OIL COMPANIES WILL SEE GREAT TIMES AHEAD


SO THE STRONG BUY CALL FOR PALM OIL STOCKS

ESPECIALLY THOSE IN PURE UPSTREAM LIKE IJMPLANT, BPLANT, JAYA TIASA, TSH RESOURCES, THPLANT, HS PLANT AND ALL OTHERS WITH UPSTREAM CROPS OF FFB


Warmest Regards to All


Calvin Tan

Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your Remisier or Fund Manager






More articles on THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 13 of 13 comments

calvintaneng

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/MYX-FCPO1!/

Cost of Cpo production Rm2000

At Rm3000 Palm oil co all profitable

CPO Anything Above Rm3000 will be Added Bonus!

2 months ago

Berlin

What is the value to investors in all this historical drivel? To show how clever Calvin was and is? It's a piece of tabloid trash long on self promotion and short on quality. If you want to be useful, go through JTiasa's Annual Reports for the last 10 years and critically analyze the marked changes in its business and financial performance. A hint. What has happened to its timber and plywood operations?

2 months ago

calvintaneng

Jtiasa started with timber and plywood

However Jtiasa saw palm oil got better prospects and so they have converted timber to palm oil

After a painstaking 10 years Jtiasa has now emerged with 206,000 acres of oil palm lands

Of these 171,000 is now fully matured at age 14

171,000 acres is about 95% of Spore landmass of 180,000 acres
This is a very wise move with foresight

2 months ago

calvintaneng

Jtiasa acted when the door and opportunity was there

Today conversion of palm oil from timber is not allowed in Malaysia and Indonesia

That is why Klk and others got to buy palm oil lands from brown field existing palm oil lands owners

2 months ago

calvintaneng

Palm oil lands versus Forest concession lands

Forest lands by law cannot be converted to housing, industry or Township

Only existing palm oil lands are allowed to be converted to housing

Sale can be

From
Palm oil to palm oil
Palm oil to industries
Palm oil to data center
Palm oil to solar farm
Palm oil to New Township

2 months ago

Berlin

Schoolboy response to a seriously relevant question. And some investors follow him? For all serious investors out there, please diligently do your own homework. Buying a share is like buying a piece of someone else's business. You better know what you are getting into. I have owned JTiasa for over 10 years since 2014, lost some money then but followed them through thick and thin and now am reaping the benefits of their business recovery.

2 months ago

calvintaneng

hahaha

you hit the nail on the head!

School boy is what you are

Calvin did not buy Jtiasa at Rm2.40

Calvin only starting buying Jtiasa after it crashed below Rm1.20 by year 2015 August
Sold it above Rm1.70

Stayed out of Jtiasa till year 2020 when I sold Outsized Profits from Glove bull

Made more than 1000% in 10 years

At 100% performance per year!

How's that?

Warren Buffet only done 25% per year
Peter Lynch at 29% for 13 years beaten Warren by his Magellan Fund

Calvin has beaten both combined!

I hate to boast but just to tell this "school boy" off!

2 months ago

Berlin

What an ignorant buffoon!

2 months ago

calvintaneng

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
Last published 2024-01-31 00:52

1,766 posts
8,851,670 views

YEA YEA

8.85 MILLION PAGE VIEWS ON CALVINTANENG WRITEUP

HOW MANY HAVE READ

School boy Berlin

You better go write your blog if you so good ok

2 months ago

calvintaneng

Dear i3 forum fraternity

Please pardon Calvin's brashness

The book says, "Answer a fool according to his folly"

Calvin has joined Eagle group, Eagle Telegram, i3 forum chat group and Klse stock group and others almost 1,000 dear friends

None of them speak like this self centered immature Berlin

His parents never teach him proper manners just too bad

2 months ago

calvintaneng

This was posted in Bumitama (Spore) tread


kelvin_ik4u Plam oil is always like that, start plant require cash/fund/debts to build empire. Once it empire steady and cash generated machine, it will be an auto-pilot for next 18yrs. This counter will be the next shine palm oil for this year.. it's CAGR 21% compounding for next 3 yrs, now Bumitama just sit and collect money as all it palm tree is 6-7yrs now with FFB nucleus oil >24%, 107% growth vs Q1'FY13. Strongly believe this counter will start give dividents moving forward. Since CPO price is up ard ~RM2700/tan metric, I believe will share price will skyrocket this yr. Target $2.00 before end of this year 2014.
19/05/2014 6:16 PM

https://sgx.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/p8z.jsp

What applies to Singapore Bumitama also apply to Jtiasa, Tsh, Thplant, Hs Plant and all other Palm oil Companies

JAYA TIASA Now On Auto - Pilot

Streams of Earnings translate to Future Streams of Dividends

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aX_efvvsyWg

WITH SUCH STRONG EARNINGS JTIASA AND ALL OTHER PALM OIL COMPANIES WILL BE OVER FLOWING WITH MASSIVE CASH INFLOW

THE OUTFLOW?

CASH DIVIDENDS LIKE DAMS DISCHARGE WATER!!!

2 months ago

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