Posted by inwest88 > 2013-09-10 14:42 | Report Abuse

bsnpgn, you and I am are almost in the same situation. My previous entry price was 3.22 and I also added some recently.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-09-10 14:52 | Report Abuse

inwest88: 英雄所见略同, 只可惜我不是英雄而是狗熊. 哈哈.

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-09-10 14:56 | Report Abuse

Haha ! Just hope the stock one day will perform up to Mr. Koon's expectations ! Just lock them in the freezer !

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-09-10 15:14 | Report Abuse

To KC Chong, KW Tan, inwest88 :
I do not think Mr Koon expected JTiasa to grow to 3.2, ~54% from today. Even yes, I do not think I have patient to wait for 3.2. I hate it as it pulls down my grand dividend yield which is income for my retirement in future.

My dream is to receive a significant dividend each year for retirement. It is something achievable if I did not make mistaken in the past years. Now I am recouping my previous mistakes, albeit it is as slow as snail but I have faith on it. As I always said, this is my dream in Bursa. I hope KC Chong and KW Tan see this message which is the center value of my investment in Bursa, just want to share with them who I regard as a very good people.

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-09-10 15:17 | Report Abuse

No one can predict the market. Just look at Kretam, it's up almost a ringgit in the last few months - on what basis ?

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-09-10 15:26 | Report Abuse

Sorry, no comment as I do not know Kretam at all.

Anyway, counter with sudden extraordinary surge without basic is not my cup of tea. Even if I am very lucky to have one, I do not think I have fate to enjoy the full upside as I will sell much earlier before it reaches its peak. I am a coward a lot of times.

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-09-10 15:31 | Report Abuse

There's no right or wrong when it comes to selling, Some say let the profits run whilst some say there is no regret when taking profits no matter how much is it ! Ultimately it all depends on the individual.

Posted by hiddengem > 2013-09-11 06:09 | Report Abuse

As a short-term trader, I will consider accumulating this stock when sign of CPO price is picking up. Bro bsngpg & inwest88 Is my strategy safe & applicable?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-11 06:35 | Report Abuse

Posted by bsngpg > Sep 10, 2013 03:14 PM | Report Abuse

To KC Chong, KW Tan, inwest88 :
I do not think Mr Koon expected JTiasa to grow to 3.2, ~54% from today. Even yes, I do not think I have patient to wait for 3.2. I hate it as it pulls down my grand dividend yield which is income for my retirement in future.

My dream is to receive a significant dividend each year for retirement. It is something achievable if I did not make mistaken in the past years. Now I am recouping my previous mistakes, albeit it is as slow as snail but I have faith on it. As I always said, this is my dream in Bursa. I hope KC Chong and KW Tan see this message which is the center value of my investment in Bursa, just want to share with them who I regard as a very good people.


bsngpg, I have said a few times already that your investment strategy is the right one because you will earn decent return from your investment, while keeping the risk low. Your strategy will beat 90% of the retail investors and 80% of the fund managers. If everybody follows your strategy, investment in the equity market will be a happy and rewarding thing to do.

Yes, investors who need income may be wise to follow the high dividend yield strategy. But with due respect to Mr Koon (more for his philanthropy and social responsibility works), I don't think a stock like Jaya Tiasa fits in that category. There are many plantation companies are better in my opinion. I would invite you to read what my opinion about the high dividend yield strategy in the thread I have created as appended below:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900271553.jsp

Just to show some of the pitfalls in this strategy. In fact every strategy, without exception, would have its own pitfalls. Just to emphasize some of things you may need to watch out here.

[High dividend payment may not be good for the company if there is inadequate normalized earnings and free cash flows. It is especially so if there is none excess cash in its balance sheet. This dividend payment is hence unsustainable as the company has to borrow or issues new shares in order to pay dividend. Paying too much dividend also negatively affect growth as less money is spent on capital expenses for the growth of the business in the future.

However investing in high dividend stocks is still a viable strategy with the following checks:
1. Dividend yields exceed the bank fixed interest rate, currently about 3.5%.
2. Dividend payout ratio should be less than a cut-off, say 65-80% to have growth
3. Reasonable growth rate in earnings at least matches the overall economy, say >4%. ]

Of course this is just my personal opinion. You don't have to be the same as me.

Posted by hiddengem > 2013-09-11 06:48 | Report Abuse

Tqvm Mr kcchongnz for yr kind advice.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-09-11 07:35 | Report Abuse

Thank you KC Chong. “High dividend yield, a popular investment strategy” has been read since posted. I like the first part very much but feel something was missing on the second part. I am still thinking carefully what it was before putting comment. It is better not to simply comment especially in front of you who have sharp analytical mind and fingers.

You are outright spotted on, I trust Mr. Koon is mainly due to his philanthropy and social responsibility works and also solid track records from his corporate and investment achievement. It has a pitfall in this but I cannot help myself, as it is associated with my born character to trust people easily.

Last night I put a comment on Dali’s “10 million-th page viewed". From there, my actual experience showed that losers out number winners. This is the setback of just follow recommendation from others which are not the stocks I follow up myself for long time. JTiasa may be another case. I dislike JTiasa for negligible div yield, high debt, low eps. As I said JTiasa does not meet few of my criteria and I would not recommend to my close friend. I am in dilemma and taking higher risk on it.

Anyway, thank you very much for your comment.

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-09-11 07:58 | Report Abuse

bsnpng, I share the same thoughts as you. Nevertheless appreciate kcchongnz's kind advice. To me I will just store JTiasa in the freezer and hope for the best, though it means some of my running capital is being tied down.

Posted by Leesk > 2013-09-11 09:41 | Report Abuse

Although the dividend yeild is good , nowaday you need to know the risk the company business is carryingon and the management team.Any big mistake or mismanagement would likely cause the company to go into PN17. steel/property and construction carrying high risk and voilatile business

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-09-11 10:13 | Report Abuse

Leesk, are you sure you are in the right thread because
1) the dividend yield for JTiasa in nothing to shout about
2) this is a plantation / timber counter , not steel/property/construction counter
3) it is very unlikely that the company will go into PN17

Posted by Ryan Leong > 2013-10-24 16:53 | Report Abuse

jtiasa coming ..hahaha

Posted by KAHFIEHLAI > 2013-10-25 21:02 | Report Abuse

div. coming soon

Posted by Leesk > 2013-10-29 17:14 | Report Abuse

the company profit has not stable yet although there are significant contribution from palm oil business. should be a good counter if the palm oil planted acreage is inceased as the timber business is volatile.

Posted by Liew Chee Khong > 2013-11-04 21:26 | Report Abuse

JTH needs heavy capex to improve production, its capital commitment in FYE 30/6/13 was RM220 million. It also has a bank loan of RM 455 mil need to be paid next year. Its cash in hand and unit trust investment only come to about RM 205 mil. If we take into account of its estimated RM 220 mil operating cash flow next year. It is still short of RM 250 mil, which in turn need injection of capital or restructure its loans.

Relying on borrowings will increase interest payments and increase in equity option will have dilution impact on EPS.

Unless in the coming years there is no further capex requirement, couple with productivity and cost control measures to improve profit margin. Then investing in JTiasa will be a profitable option. More so if the average CPO price can maintain at an average price of RM 2500 per ton.

Posted by Liew Chee Khong > 2013-11-05 10:05 | Report Abuse

If the free cash flow (net operating cash flow - capex) stay negative for too long. You can forget about dividend payment, JTiasa may have to borrow more to fund the cash deficit. Unless it can monetize some of its assets under its stable.

If JTiasa is at the tail end of capex spending i.e. most of its acreage was planted with palm trees. Then its ability to generate positive economic profit and free cash flow in future will translate into lower gearing, higher dividend payment and its MVA [Market Cap - (equity + loan capital)] will be on an upward trajectory.

Posted by Fortunebull > 2013-11-05 20:47 | Report Abuse

Gone up! Little room for margin! Cancel!

Posted by ksng0307 > 2013-11-06 12:30 | Report Abuse

Long term shud be ok as IJM founder Mr Koon is very optimistic about this counter

Posted by PJTrader > 2013-11-06 15:59 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ginny > 2013-11-07 12:53 | Report Abuse

today is shooting up..any news..why it happens ;)

Posted by KAHFIEHLAI > 2013-11-07 13:39 | Report Abuse

Ijm is in the empire making of WCE..Mr koon can share some insde news..heheh

Posted by ksng0307 > 2013-11-07 14:56 | Report Abuse

shit, 10sen up, shud listen to Mr Koon, money all tied up at pmcorp and iris....

Posted by darecom > 2013-11-09 10:54 | Report Abuse

In my opinion, Jtiasa management has to do what they have to do to turn the business around. May it be spending more in CAPEX or getting more loans. Don't think they are here to plan to fail and business is always about having a little more manageable risk for better earning in long run.

I noticed difference individual has difference definition (in term of duration) of what it means by "long run", personally, I will keep it as long as Jtiasa business still running (making good $$). Read an article from cold eye which sounds pretty similar with a saying by Warren Buffett - If you wanna fish, equip yourself to go for the biggest fish in the ocean [right target] and wait patiently [long term].

Mr. Koon is giving his very valuable comments about JTiasa, so do many others here too (truly respect all this gurus). Which really help to make us a better investors!! So keep it up guys....

Hope to meet more of you this afternoon... it's my lovely hometown "I'm coming home.. I'm coming home...!!!"

Have a great great weekend ahead and for those who're going to Ipoh, drive safe and see you guys there!

Just my little tiny opinion, paisei paisei!

Posted by Nevets > 2013-11-09 11:15 | Report Abuse

Jtiasa and RH group (subur Tiasa) and others are facing financial unstability ...
If you look at the trend of the market, shares only increase during this dividend pay out...
other then this dividend payout moment, you hardly see the price increase...

RH related group will only increase share price with buyers on the dividend period, then later, by Q2 will be going down..

RH group has great funds on monetary, but "black hole" in the management spendings...
Just my 2 sens thoughts... beware...

Posted by Liew Chee Khong > 2013-11-10 09:19 | Report Abuse

The long lead time between plantation establishment and profitability are huge impediments to many plantation owners. As a rule of thumb, the operating cost of oil palm planter is around RM 1,000 per mt and milling cost is another RM 200 per mt but this cost structure depends a lot on FFB production per ha, OER, price of fertilizer and labour costs.

Mr. Koon has estimated the JTiasa FFB production in his article, palm trees typically begin flowering and producing fresh fruit bunches (FFB) after three to four years, with a substantial increase in yield three to four years later. Peak palm oil yields occur when trees are between 7 and 12 years of age, and gradually decline thereafter. As a plantation ages, it also tends to experience declining tree populations as a result of pests and disease. Newly established plantations might have 130-145 trees/ha, whereas an old plantation might be reduced to about 100 trees/ha. Oil palm plantations generally remain profitable for 25 years, after which they need to be replanted.

Plantations in Malaysia are facing shortage of workers; most of them are from Indonesia. This has adversely affected harvests and is creating wage pressures in the industry. Labour costs on plantations estates now account for around 30-40% of total costs (depending on the level of mechanization and location) and are likely to trend higher at a rate of 10-15% annually.

The cost structure of oil palm plantations is made up largely of labour, fertiliser and diesel on a per hectare (ha) basis. Oil palm plantations are extremely labour intensive and are costly to establish and manage. Fertiliser is the largest cost item for an immature estate. Once trees reach maturity, labour takes the No. 1 spot, with fertiliser dropping to No. 2. The price of fertiliser is a significant yield and profit driver.

Although cost is on the uptrend, yields are therefore central to profitability as they impact on the cost of CPO per hectare (or per tonne).

Posted by Liew Chee Khong > 2013-11-10 12:45 | Report Abuse

It will be a bonus if the CPO price can stay at RM 2,500 per mt and above. Unfortunately, nothing much plantation players can do to influence the price. It is purely demand & supply dynamic, seasonal factors and price of substitute products like soya oil etc..

Posted by adc38 > 2013-11-12 23:53 | Report Abuse

Most of the analysts saw no potential on this share (from the target price as shown above)

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-13 22:29 | Report Abuse

Demand for sustainable palm oil to double by 2015
Author: value_investor | Publish date: Wed, 13 Nov 13:15 | _______________________________________
The demand for certified sustainable palm oil (CSPO) is expected to almost double by 2015, according to secretary-general of the Roundtable of Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) Darrel Webber. "That will be 16% of global supply," Webber said. The current global consumption of CSPO currently stands at about 5m tonnes. (Financial Daily)

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-13 22:35 | Report Abuse

CPO prices may jump to RM 3,050 -3,100 metric ton in 1Q 2014
Author: value_investor | Publish date: Wed, 13 Nov 13:15
------------------------------------------------------
CPO prices may jump to RM 3,050 -3,100 metric ton in 1Q 2014, says Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, head of hedging and trading strategies at Kaleesuwari Intercontinental Singapore Pte. "We see the technical picture turning increasing friendly and prices making multi-year highs," Thiagarajan, also a director at Mumbai-based Commtrendz Risk Management Services Pvt, says in a presentation prepared for the China International Oils and Oilseeds Conference in Guangzhou. (Bloomberg)

Posted by Fortunebull > 2013-11-15 20:43 | Report Abuse

Mr. Koon counter trigger a strong uptrend momentum!

Posted by dingding > 2013-11-18 14:13 | Report Abuse

enter now will be too high? buy now or wait?

Posted by Vincent H'ng > 2013-11-18 21:12 | Report Abuse

可以注意taann，因它跟jtiasa一样的商业模型，而且票比jtiasa少2倍多。

Posted by Tom > 2013-11-20 20:29 | Report Abuse

OTB make buy call now... B lerk~
6 months ago RM1.70, no leh?

Posted by dingding > 2013-11-22 16:37 | Report Abuse

... what is TP?

Posted by zero > 2013-11-23 22:44 | Report Abuse

target price

Posted by dingding > 2013-11-25 10:54 | Report Abuse

buy !

Posted by sjneoh1986 > 2013-11-25 15:34 | Report Abuse

Have you guys see this before, was few months ago, but i just read it
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2013/07/koon-yew-yin-on-jaya-tiasa.html

Posted by dingding > 2013-11-25 17:09 | Report Abuse

ya. so we must buy now!. before the price rise

Posted by Alex Chong > 2013-11-29 16:02 | Report Abuse

Why price drop 0.1 today? Any negative news?

Posted by dingding > 2013-11-29 16:16 | Report Abuse

Q3 report, below expectation, EPS: 1.97
- We are placing our HOLD call and fair value (RM2.00/share) for Jaya Tiasa Holdings under review. The fair value is based on a PE of 15x FY14EPS of 13.4 sen.
- Jaya Tiasa yesterday announced a 1QFY14 core net profit of RM23.5mil (vs. –RM0.4mil in 4QFY13; +51% YoY) – which was below expectations and representing only 18% of our full-year forecast of RM130mil and 20% of consensus estimate of RM151mil. No dividend was declared.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-29 23:33 | Report Abuse

CPO could hit 3000/tonne by Mar 2014_Indonesia
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/265531-palm-oil-prices-could-hit-1-12-year-high-by-march-mistry.html

Posted by anbz > 2013-12-01 01:13 | Report Abuse

better buy mkh...property + palm oil

Posted by anbz > 2013-12-01 01:26 | Report Abuse

sjneoh u should read the comments under the article in your link...jtiasa is nothing

Posted by Fortunebull > 2013-12-01 01:55 | Report Abuse

Looks like JTiasa going down!

Posted by tsurukame > 2013-12-01 11:15 | Report Abuse

anbz,
MKH = property + palm oil...Current hectarage in oil palm is about say 16,000 hectares but management plans to target 100,000 hectares in the near future...

That means high capex investment in the next few years to acquire additional 84,000 hectares of plantation land and this will be funded by operational cash flows and possible new debt....may not pay consistent dividends in the future as well...but if you r a long term investor with time horizon of say 10 years, you will realize your investment gains handsomely and that is assuming MKH acquires the balance 84,000 hectares within the next 3 to 5 years...

R U willing to be such a long term investor with MKH???

Posted by anbz > 2013-12-01 15:38 | Report Abuse

don't worry...EPF will enter mkh in no time...and no need for 10 years...just 2.5 years needed..why? ...they like to buy already matured plantation... kalimantan per acre yield = 30 tonnes while other places are between 20 to 24 tonnes...and kajang and semenyih are owned by MKH...not forgetting mrt...very low land cost for property..the price might appreciate to RM 4 in near term

Posted by invester > 2013-12-01 23:23 | Report Abuse

I think the timber and plywood demand will be increase in coming days as Philippines might need them to rebuild those area which badly hurt by the typhoon. Just like last time when Japan increase their demand on plywoood and timber after the tsunami. Jaya Tiasa might be benefit on this.