We maintain our Trading Buy call on Jaya Tiasa. The stock is not an Outperform as we expect it to be re-rated only in the short term, driven mainly by stronger timber earnings in the next few quarters. Also unchanged are our earnings forecasts and our target price of RM2.36, which is based on sum-of-parts. Key re-rating catalysts include a potential positive earnings surprise relative to consensus.
While Grandma like the idea of surprises, and they have found a better income fr plantation rather than forestry and taken the bold step 10 years ago, but the liquidity in transaction. Grandma check also reveal before April 16 2012 the volume was even more atrocious. Grandma knows that in Malaysia more so, a company with good bookbuilding, political connection, and speculative excitement do better than a company with purely good fundamentals. While Koon Yew Yin is old school without relying too much on TA (am sure he does look at it) and a lot on Managment and conversion and leadership (not afraid of change) this share is good truly for investors but for traders?? It's a Buy rather than trading buy .....
Grandma tried queuing, but got an egg for two days already. Similarly if you are trying to sell, make sure you peel down 2 notches at the rate of transaction. Price wise Grandma belief it is hard to drop because KYY and family already have 34 Million of it in account
Grandma wonder if KYY did indeed buy all 34 Million shares on open market. If he did, you can calculate when exactly he started accumulating and see the price difference backwards. Grandma already know the answer, but you can check to find the margin he has done since. You should be able to tell their continuous growth with Palm Oil coming in again especially June month.
KYY is very kind in sharing his investment ideas with others. But those who want to invest in this stock must hold for long term - one, two or even three years.
CPO price is now at secular downtrend..how long is the downtrend? No one really know for sure... How much lower can it go...It's anybody's guess...the market will decide eventually.
The jewel in Jtiasa is its Timber and Timber prices is on uptrend...I concur with KYY that it is now a good time to invest in J Tiasa.
With the increase in Palm oil for month of June and their avg age of their tree at 5 to 6 years and every 4 years they can do 7.7 tons FFB/ha. Grandma is assuming to take least apse calculation 7.7 multiply by 60,000 divided by 4 (quarters) and multiply by 2370 (avg per ton) for a avg quarter earning though Grandma know that the harvesting time maybe different But note also the production increases exponential between 4 and 10 years. Example if linear 4 years 7.7 by right 8 years should be 15.4 and 10 years should be around 19 tons FFB/ha but 10 years can produce 27.2.
Grandmas suggestion in calculation above by taking the line and actual calculation will show you the difference in the price leap ( assuming price difference is a mere -+ 5%), this year onwards, the 8 years and 10th years would see some difference.
Grandma happy to be in Jtiasa now. Small investment here hopefully calculation here vs logging makes sense as a large proportion in logging would have taken 7 years as veneer was much required as some point vs the 4 years on for Palm harvesting.
Agree with tsurukami, even how bearish is the market, there will be some counters going against the trend. Kuah, have you ever come across a situation where 100% of the stocks show red in a day.
This one has 2 US base foreign investor Northern Trust and Dimensional fund. The former % is small and the latter hold about 7% again would not be too concern as KYY holds 34 Million shares approx 3.65%. This will help to stabilize.
Jenny, Grandma advice you to read first on the article and have an opinion. Your answer for this particular counter is truly an example of a TA vs a FA vs a true Investor. If you check on the PE, ROE and Net Profit, you may not be encourage. However if you read the logic of a successful investor below you may form a better opinion
Following Grandmas earlier write up, it will the next even year 2014 to see profit since the growth and harvesting of palm oil is exponential. The avg age is 5 to 6 years at current. April onwards this year has been good for log price but palm oil is only good in month of June. The results is expected with quarter result ending June having only 1 out of 3 mths in positive light. This can be seen in WTK who is doing the same as Jtiasa but proportion still higher in logging.
Take a moment and think about the world we live in with global issues stamping from war to financial. If you have read Grandmas thoughts in Kimlun, though the company has been very consistent, the margin of play is only 5 % which means there is not much room for global crisis, war etc and with the recent drop in Net Profit again proves the point. Though Grandma see a possible punt to continue but the odds of global is too high.
Now coming back to Jtiasa and the examples presented on Global issues and palm oil in general. Palm oil is a commodity that provides Malaysia with 70 billion income and is only next to Oil which stands at 80 billion. Malaysia is second in palm oil producing and second now in export though earlier it was said to be top exporter but second in producing to Indonesia. The countries that vide palm oil are India, china, Eu27 etc . If we consider China to increase the export, we do need a person like Robert Kuok to further mediate with his strong relationship with China. However this is far from true now as the many of his business in Malaysia has been taken up by Syed Mokthar and the solemn man has increase his business further especially Sugar and now palm oil in the region and world since the down turn has given him further opportunities. Robert has now a strong base in Indonesia and may be a real threat if he grow the business further with China. Here again we have 2 big Asian importer in China and India vs a collective in EU to withstand the down turn and crisis. The only challenege is to whether the crisis and the weather and price of this commodity. In Grandmas, books, if 2/3 is in Asia, it stands a better chance of triumph even with a poorer price which can and will improve.
Put other things aside, if you believe Mr Koon Yew Yin, this is a friendly reminder that it is now a good time to buy JTiasa. Personally, I would NOT buy as I am stuck with this stock for long time already. It is one of the stock serving long term jail. Good Luck.
hiddengem, it all depends on what school of thought you subscribe to as different people have different views of investment like 1) go read KYY's long write-up in Dali's blog 2) OTB has included this in his stock pick based on TA readings about a month ago 3) kcchongnx is not too keen on this stock based on FA and other reasons like cash flow etc
At the end of the day, you have to make your own decision and ascertain whether at this level the price is attractive, whether the upside gains outweigh the downside risks, how long you can hold on etc.
hiddengem : If I am not mistaken, both JTiasa and RSawit are run by the Tiong family.
Pls do not compare to loser like me, you are falling into Confirmation Trap. Pls read “Common Investing Psychology Traps – investopedia” posted by KW Tan yesterday. Anyway I do not mind to tell you that I bought at 9.66=3.28 ex bonus. In long term jail lol.
Buying JTiasa is buying into future prospect of CPO. You need to have faith that CPO will rise. In this case you need to have holding power. I have faith on it, else I have bailed out JTiasa for long time already.
You can go to MalaysiaFinanceblogspot and search for JTiasa for recommendation from Mr Koon. If you plantation and you believe in him as I do, now is a good time to buy JTiasa.
****I do not buy more JTiasa after 9.66 even though I buy recommendation from Mr Koon. I just hold and wait.
Hi : as I buy the recommendation of Mr. Koon so much and we talked about it lately, I bought 5000 shares of JTiasa this morning to show support. The justification of buying JTiasa can be read from Mr. Koon’s articles. In fact, it does not meeting few of my criteria. I cannot help myself as hand is itchy. It is similar to US TV series Prison Break 2005, sending younger brother into prison to rescue the elder brother. Ha ! ha!. Good luck to myself.
Hi Hiddengem : I do not and dare not to dream for bumper harvest. How to break even the RM3.20(entry price of the elder brother), a 54% rise from today ? I would be very happy as long as the younger brother can bail out the elder from long term jail with no casualty.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Wong Yi Shen
170 posts
Posted by Wong Yi Shen > 2012-04-21 11:22 | Report Abuse
I guess those who are looking into this stock are investors....traders chat more :)