boustead ( CEO) Tan sri lodin expects prices to firm up > 3,000 third qtr this year. 40 % higher compared to last year average of RM 2,150. Technically all counters should benefit from the higher prices. this is my personal view

it's only make sense for Tony that both the price of AA and AAX should be higher. His personal fortune & wealth take a hit when the price of AA ( fell from 2.20 ) and AAx tumbled to 30 from 80 after rights adjustment.

with the turnaround stories. AA and AAX should recover. Hopefully we can ride with their recoveries. shares are unlike FX trading. we should wait and see the anticipated improvement in the coming quater result.

FGV is a political link institution. Najib sits right on top of Pekan ( the majority are Felda settlers ) FGV has make some strange acqusition. eg buying a peanut oil manufacturer in China ( almost 1 billion Ringgit ). a small plantation in Sabah ( united Pontian ) another 1 billion. Propsed Eagle high in Indonesia ( 25 % stake ) another 1,5 Billion.

without prejudice. i believed this is not in the best interest of the company. with all thier resources and cash reserve ( almost 4 Billion after their IPo ) they are back to square one. this is personal view of FGV

KYY is on different level. who are we to compare KYY investing style. i am happy just able to " cari makan"

we need to be patient. contra players tend to hit and run ( same as counters @ push & dump ). Both AA and AAX was push down by allegations of irregular accounting . Similar to murky water CEO write up on olam international. AA & AAX ( Tony ) came up with clear picture what they did with their lease and write back between AA and AAX subsidiaries.

With the stronger ringgit and the inflow of E-visa from China. AA and AAx can expect better volumes plus lower fuel prices. The coming quaters will confirm whether the turnaround of both AA and AAx. Both counters have not recover their last year share pricing. AA ( > RM 2.00 ) AAx > 80 ( after their rights )

agreed cheoky. most investors will look at reports but look for information which they feel is relevant. This is trend you look not only here but beyond our shores. CPO is part of the 7 major oil trends. Big MNC ( Wilmar ) have operations in Africa, South America, Central Asia etc

CPO prices are trending higher this quater ( jan'16 - Mar'16 ) far more better than 2015. Most companies will report weaker earnings based on their FY 2015 reporting. The average price for 2015 is app RM 2,000 . Sabah & Sarawak are reporting far lower prices due to discount. Plantations are highly taxed in terms of levy, windfall tax, export tax plus salary hike.

Earnings upgrade will only applies for this FY quater. recently IOI was penalised by RSPO for breahing their rules. This bring more Funds dumping their plantation (IOI). Most plantations will reduce their dividends ( based on last year result ). FGV was the biggest disappointment after their IPO. Local funds are still stuck with their IPO offerings. plantation blue chip are rich in valuations ( unless you play on those smallish counters ). This is my view while counters are not moving

The investment bank will sell you everything under the sun provided they got a cut. Look at Goldman Sach @ Along Public unlimited ( deal with 1MDB)

radzi. we cannot stop people from posting. whatever news (just use our common sense & do our own homework ) AAX and AA is a trurn around story. time will tell whether we are right or wrong. just be patient and wait for the 1st Qtr result.

AA has hedge their Jet fuel at US 59 per barrel. currently Brent Crude is trading at >US 40 per barrel. Fuel cost shud be low compared on a Y-o-Y basis. Previously AA hedge at US 90- 70 per barrel. Jet fuel accounts for at least 40% of their operating costs.

Currency wise the Ringgit and other regional curriencies has firm up against the US dollar. The ringgit was battered from 3.6 and fell to 4.4 as of last year. currently the ringgit trading at 4.0 mark.

the recovery against the US dollar also strech right across the board for most Asian Airlines after the US Fed. Reserve signals a 2 right hikes for this year compare to 4 rate hikes as of December last year.


China and India growing middle class and the X & Y generations is flying right across the globe compared to 10 or 15 years back. this segment of consumers are the biggest block of LCC customers.

FGV listing is bad for settlers. under Koperasi they get a better deal. worst off is those settlers who believed in the seet talk and buy FGV shares > 4.50. they have incurred financing & capital losses. this is how i viewved FGV after their initial 3 years IPO listings

all regional (asian airlines) are hit by the strenght of the US Dollar. Malaysia was worst hit when the ringgit fell from RM 3.60 to RM 4.40 ( last qtr of 2015 ). Now the ringgit has firm up from 4.4 to 4.03 of late. This is a booast to their bottom line

in HK parking lot is for sale !

when Tony started AA. Not a single bankers willingly to back him up. Tony secured the financing from overseas ( Boeing to be exact ) lease and fly

you have young guys or ladies wet behind thier ears telling us how the market is behaving ! in hong kong ( with due respect ) not all analysis travelling to work on MRT and public buses. factory owners and Real estate agents driving MB and BMW.

Bank forecast is like my fortune cookies (depends which side you are sitting.) A clear case is the price forcast for CPO. THey have forecast the price to climb as high as RM 2,800- RM 3,000 ( when the future price was at RM 2,650 - RM 2,699 mark.) The last 2 days saw prices on a down trend . The CPo is now at RM 2,650.

seriously for planting 400,000 acres ? ( need to check -the standard terms used are hectares NOT acres. ) it's will take a long long time for wah seong to complete planting. IOI , Genting, FGV are doing green fields in Indonesia at the rate of 2,000 - 3,000 hectares ( app 7,000 - 8,000 acres per annum ) This are pure plantation planters. In Congo without sounding like a doctor doom. Wah seong may faced alot of obstacles. The biggest oil palm producers are Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand. combine they produce almost 92% of the global production. Africa is the last unknown frontier. Nigeria are major producer of Cocoa not palm oil. this is my personal view

with negative interest rate. the properties and equities will likely attract more FDI. the degree and amount will subject to each countries individual risk profiles. FDI Funds are businessmen. at the end of the day the bottom line matters

AA is addressing the under utilisation of AAX aircrafts. what better way is to lease and operate the aircrafts. MAS opted for code sharing with other airlines. but this indirctly means opening up your routes to other airlines ( previously without the connectively ). Tony is a street smart businessmen who sees the opportunity like acquiring " Overseas Indians " status

India recognised a special group of its people categorized as " OVerseas Indians " . they enjoyed same privilidges AND legal rights of the ordinary people,

believed it or not the herds mentality also strikes among writers. everybody wants to ride the trend (correctly) being a contratrian is very loney

banks in the US are not cover by the Federal Reserve. There are 100's of private owned banks. Unlike in Malaysia everything is under BNM . there are only 9 full fledged banks operating after consolation

Stalingrad is a beautiful city. only problem most asians have never visited the city. US and British have always avoided Russia. Maybe times have changed or maybe people idea getaway holiday is different now

airlines was facing intense competition & high fuel costs. the game changer was introduction of low cost fares structure ( pioneer by virgin air ) and copied by AA. to address the high fuel charges ( eg sky rocking crude prices ). Majority of airlines now pass on the fuel excess surcharge to passengers. AA did one better - passengers also charge for meal, drinks and even faster check in.

AA model was further improvise by Tony FErnandez and make the model super efficient compared to MAS. Using AA models ( Tony Fernandez ) spread the wings to all regional centres using the lease and JV structures. The head hong cho knows traffic connectivity is important and volume is the name of the game.

Icon did a good job on the AA operating analysis fare structure. It may not be 100% perfect but it need time and good anaytical skill. Whatever is it ( without sounding crony ) those reading this blog must have some vested interest in AA or AAX.

The only drag on AA was their overseas JV in Vietnam, Indonesia. THailand is going geat and in fact the second biggest contributor, With the new routes to Chiang Mai and Hathyai coming April. AA Thailand will be even better. Last year the USD rallied against most Asian currciences resulting in forex losses.

Hopefully, this year we have seen the peak in the USD strenght. The reverse will benefit all the regional curriences (i.e. if they strenghten against the USD ) Forex gains will be substantial. this is my personal take on AA. Happy trading

after Zeti, I doubt BNM ability to withstand the political pressure. Zeti is an exceptional case

there is an old saying " a strain of rice feeds 100 types of character" we cannot keep everybody happy in this type of open forum. just keep to facts.
happy trading

today (Friday) nothing much is happening. just to side track there's a old movie called " colour of money " it tells when comes to trading there is no distinction between race, colour or belief. only how big is your greed. just like greeko says Greed is good in wall street. cheers

Tq for for your comments. we cannot please everone at this open forums. just stick to facts. there is an old saying that a strain of rice feeds 100 types of character. happy trading

last 5-6 trading days. AAX, AAX-w, AA all top active stocks. Contra players will be squaring off positions. EPF is the biggest player on our local bourse. buying and selling is part of their treasury functions. EPF apart from their internal treasury & money market operations. they have also outsourced 10-12 funds manager to trade on their behalf ( both domestic and overseas ). Domestic fronts - EPF owns more 120 equities with percentage ranging from 3 % - 60 % . So buying, selling and rebalancing their portfolios are part of their daily routines.

margin is neither good or bad same like credit card. used it wisely it serve the purpose. use it wantonly then you yourselves is at risk

Radzi. on another note. all the AA subsidiary (eg Vietnam, indonesia, phillipines ) was a drag on AA P&L. With the lower fuel cost, appreciation of regional currencies against USD, better take up rate due to lower air fares. Strong possibilities of upside performance from all the subsidiaries. Thailand was the most profitable (despite all the headwinds) Phillipines is showing vibrant growth. Vietnam is a growing market. China ( is the key target for all airlines ) Happy trading

last year AA hedge at USD 90 -75 . this year they have headge fuel jet at USD 59 ( based on available news report )

turnaround stories and solid fundamentals will underscored thier price recoveries

time to maximise returns. go only for 2 or 3 counters ( buy and hold )which have the potential (or the turn around stories ) theme play and coming qtr result will be positive. happy trading

EPF was a big seller before the price move up. Possibilities of EPF and other GLIC funds ( KWAP, Tab Haji ) accumulating after Maybank glowing report. Cathay Pacific profits jump 90 % Y-o-Y

let your profit run and cut your losses (rule number 1) cheers

in trading (we ourselves are answerable ) not your leturers or the chart readers. ride with the momentum ( not neglecting basic fundamentals ). Oh! always trade within your means ( this is my advice ) happy trading

Most people have recently forecast Brent Crude to trade between USD 40-USD 50 ( not jet fuel oil ). Price may be trending higher now but whether sustainable is a big Q ?

well articulated on AA coming P & L qtr result.

Calvin. i am not bearish on the plantation outlook but just put in my 2 cents worth. THe windfall tax on plantations will kick in if the average price is above RM 2,250 per tonne for Peninsular Malaysia and RM 3,000 for East Malaysia. The rate is set between 4.5 % - 8.5% ( which means the Government will enjoy a sum of between RM 112 - RM 200 per tonne of CPO produced ). The planters also have to bear the increased cost of levy for foreign workers ( from RM 590 increased to RM 1,500 per head ). The minimum wage will be increased to RM 1,200 ( from RM 900 ) starting from 1st July. What i am saying not all plantation(s) will enjoy the full benefits. only the more efficient one will derive more compared to the less efficient ones

prices may go higher but the speakers ( Dorab & James Fry ) far too gung ho on their price projections. we need to factor in the reduced demand from China and INdia ( the world's two biggest user ) Bio-diesel will remains muted (despite government mandatory blending ) still funding & subsidies need to provide for bio-diesel production. US and Europe has more or less dropped Bio-fuel from their agenda. Car manufacturers are now moving in the direction of Electic ( EEV direction ) this is my personal take

MOst airlines hedge at least 50% of their fuel cost. AA last year hedge their jet fuel at USD 75 per barrel. THis year Brent Crude trading between USD 30 - USD 40 (Jan- Mar ). savings should be quite significant

last time they hedge 50% fuel oil at USD 75 .Brent Crude has recover from USD 28 per barrel to USD 38 per barrel. going forward most traders expect Brent Crude to trade range bound USD 40-USD 50 between now till JUne. Fuel oil is the biggets cost to an airline. Just to share

rotation play. pushing air asia now will go for AAX. just my intutution. cheers

trade within your limit and never trade beyond your means. opportunities to trade is always there. make the best out of it but not literally use the slang borrow , beg , steal. Happy trading and AAX fly to greater heights
( price wise )

some people are happy to RM 100 ( per trade ) some people are not too happy to make RM 1,000 (per trade ) different people have different investnment idea. some long term, some not so long term, some daily punting. each has the right to claim they are better. we are here here to share ideas and make money. let's stay this way. happy trading

no risk no gain. but always trade within your means. this is all i can say . good luck bros. cannot yam seng. price of beer increase

Keck Seng is a very consevative company. controlled by the Ho family members. Forex impairment means their Accountants used certain forex exchange rate to ascertain the differences. Keck Seng seldoms reward their minority shareholders even during the boom times.

KTC sold down because last qtr profit drop ( partly due to listing exercise )

the immense happiness of not losing your pants feel good, we all gone thru this typr of situation. patience is the key. cheers richkid