Icon8888 should belanja us all Ah-Yat abalone.
He said before he has lorries of TG haha.

Turnaround takes time mah. Try and check what kind of Balance Sheet Hevea has when it started to turnaround from the bottom?
If you're not happy, there's 900++ other counters in KLSE. Why complain so much?

Profit is not really down - it's normalization as last year Q4 is one-off gain. (RM16.1 million gain on disposal of land and buildings in Semambu, Pahang).
Otherwise, last year would be a loss quarter, compared to this year is profit making.
Current PE stands at 10.70. Okay lah, fair value.

Interesting read.

Congratulations Icon!
Tumpang happy for ya :)

Let's not add salt to the wound for others.
Bursa Dummy and Riche Ho did warn others already.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/87501.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhinvest/87456.jsp

I believe there is no answer to your question.
Speculating, trading and investing each plays by different rules of game.
It depends on yourself, which are you?

@bracoli - No one can predict Mieco's result, unless you are an employee of the company.
But if, "IF" share price is of any indication, the recent surge of Mieco should provide you some hint?
Not sure, at your own risk.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5008825

Excellent Result!
Didn't sell a single share during the big correction.
Patience finally rewards.

Think of it this way shinado.
You still make a whooping 109.3% & 5.6% regardless and not a loss - even if you fell in love with your stock, a common syndrome we all have.
That's not bad an investment I'd say, not bad at all.
By the way, I recalled in Cold Eye's book he mentioned, cyclical stocks can also be a good investment, provided if you know WHEN TO BUY.

Dear Mr Tan, please be noted Top Glove's shares in in CFTrader's portfolio have not been adjusted too.
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/54921.jsp

Either way, I don't know man, I'll just put this in my watchlist and KIV. See what's going on.
I did noticed something on the cash flow side - sudden jump in capex.

You have a point, but I like to put myself in the director's shoe. It don't make sense for him to sell now:
-First level thinking - Director has earned enough to exit now.
-Second level thinking - Cheewah's revenue is seasonal, with Q1 and Q3 being weakest. However Q1 is already equivalent of previous year's earning, imagine the further upside in Q2++? Plus after so many years, Cheewah finally turnaround in 2014. Isn't it a little too early to cash out?

Thanks Icon. I actually saw the above article too, but the cross trade date was much earlier according to the edge (22th Dec). The selling has been quite aggressive esp recently.

Cross Trade?

Icon8888, just wanna exchange info with you.
Just looked into this counter and noticed something - have you noticed that the MD and the directors have been throwing a lot recently?

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchdr/9423.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchsh/9423.jsp

Any information on your side? Thanks.

Good portfolio restructuring Icon, hope you will continue to do well in stock market in 2016.

Hotrod, Evergreen is export counter.
The reason why Icon8888 chose Mieco is due to it is domestic based.

You're just being humble, haha.
Yes, I totally understand. I myself have experienced Property collapse and O&G too.
That's why these days I try to diversify as much as possible.
And also I agree, I believe export stocks still have legs to go. It may have rebound from the lowest point (maybe?), but it does not mean it recover to it's previous level. So far, I have not find the economy recover enough to reflect such recovery.
Nonetheless, diversification is the best way to go.

As we expected Icon8888 bro, MYR really rebounded.
Luckily you restructured your portfolio to diversify into more domestic stocks.
Thumbs up.

Graham Number is 1.72. Anything below is undervalue according to this valuation method.

That's why you use diversification fayeTan, the only free lunch in investing.
As bullish as I am on USD vs MYR, I dare not invest too much in business with forex gain, as nobody can ever perfectly predicted the market.

+1 Still holding it and sailing through the volatility storm in the seas of bursa.
Good job hanging in there, CFTrader bro.

Haha don't lah, cannot even compare to the stocks you've brought.
I don't always comment in the stocks I buy anyways, maybe only a small portion of them only haha. My portfolio are mostly consisting of defensive stocks due to high level of market uncertainty.
稳中求胜 is my objective. If can achieve 15% p.a. I'm already satisfied already. Higher expectation = higher risk.

You're being too humble Icon8888 bro, haha. And yes, nothing beats your own homework & research.

By the way, you're smart cause you also saw the currency windfall is certainly a double edged sword. There's a proverb in Chinese called "物極必反 (when things reach an extreme, they can only move in the opposite direction)". Hence we can never know when MYR may rebound. So it's best to take the free lunch in investing - diversification.

Posted by fayeTan > Jan 24, 2016 07:58 PM | Report Abuse

The company did not pay dividend for many years already. With improved earnings prospect in fy15 and fy16, do you think they will start giving dividend?

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If history is of any reference, looking back at Hevea as the best example, it's unlikely that they will start giving dividends. Even if they do, it's not gonna be very high. (Unless they use the entire RM30 mil from disposal and pay as special dividend, that's of course another story.)

This is because they still have some USD denominated loans amounting to 11,494 mil (out of total 89,438 mil borrowings). From the managements' perspective, If I'm them, I will clear the USD loan ASAP first, then use the currency windfall advantage to clear the remaining MYR debt as much as possible, before MYR rebounds.

In my humble opinion, dividends is never too much of a focus, as you can always declare HIGHER dividends in the future to compensate back the shareholders from the dividends lost during the years.

@Icon8888 - Thanks for the article Icon bro. You articles covered some points which I didn't take notice of.

Thank you Icon, for the meaningful article.
Will take some time to read the book "How To Stop Worrying and Start Living" during free time.
As a fellow investor, I would also like to recommend a book to you. It's called "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" by Robert Kiyosaki. Try it out!

Yes I agree with Pakcik, HEVEA is undervalued now according to my FA analysis.
I also agree that you can find investment ideas that are much cheaper today, haha.
But I'm cash strapped, too bad.

"The intelligent investor dreads a bull market, since it makes stocks more costly to buy. And conversely you should welcome a bear market, since it puts stocks back on sale. " Benjamin Graham, from the book The Intelligent Investor.

Glad to see you here by the way, since you're also a fellow Fundamental Analyst :)

Hi Pakcik, unexpected to see pakcik here.
Pakcik pun interested kat Hevea ke?

Prasarana: First new train for Kelana Jaya LRT line operational by May
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/prasarana-first-new-train-kelana-jaya-lrt-line-operational-may?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

I believe Mieco is undervalued at this price.
Let us look back at some of the company's simple fundamentals:

This is not a buy/sell call, buy/sell at your OWN risk. This is merely a reflection of fundamentals.

- Mieco is a beneficiary of low crude oil price and USD forex gain.
- With the First Phase of relocation of the Mieco's Semambu plant should already be completed by year end 2015 according to the management, more production output should be possible (?)
- Company's borrowings are all denominated in MYR, except for 11.494 mil USD term loan (out of 89,438 mil borrowings).
- Deleveraging, like Hevea, Mieco is deleveraging rapidly. Once the borrowing are reduced enough, they are able to trim down the finance cost even further.
- "BDRB" Bandaraya Development Sdn Bhd, acquired Mieco back in 2012, and holds 56% of Mieco's shares. Is there a possibility of synergy between BDRB and Mieco? Mieco may be able to supply fibreboard for BDRB's property (?)
- Mieco's NTA is 1.38. Current price is only 0.94.

Please rectify me if there's any mistake, thank you.

Aiyo karwai, patience my friend.
First ask yourself, are you investing or trading?
If you're trading then you're nervous lah - you need to monitor volume, accumulation, etc.
But if you're investing, then why should you? Investing is a long term journey.
Don't forget, while you look at the charts here and there, everyday the company is actually operating to make profit. As the fundamental improves, the share price will follow.

Benjamin Graham, the father of investing once said: "Invest only if you would be comfortable owning a stock even if you had no way of knowing its daily share price."

Haha, Icon8888 is so happy today.
Everywhere in the forum also can see you sapu stocks.
Grats on holding so much of cash.

@nokenzo - Yes you are right. I actually do intend to relearn all my Fundamental Analysis knowledge again from scratch from KC in the near future.

I've stopped investing for so long, that most of my investing knowledge are now rusty. Recently found passion in investing again, hence been re-reading all my investing books - The Intelligent Investor, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, etc and of course also KC's articles.

The reason why I'm asking KC bout the Magic Formula is because I'm currently reading "The Little Book That Still Beats The Market."

Posted by Desa20201956 > Jan 18, 2016 04:56 AM | Report Abuse

In research departments, it is always about projections and earnings visibility ( how reliable are the projections ). ...never about historical figures.

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"History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes,” - Mark Twain.

Understanding the historical figures helps understanding the company's past history.

A serious investor will not only look at the future of the company, he/she will also look into the past of the company.

I see, what about your benchmark for EY then KC?
Still remain as 15% as per your previous articles?

KC, if you don't mind, I always had a question regarding Magic Formula that I wanted to ask you. May I?

I would like to ask what are the "minimum" and "standard" benchmark for EV/EBIT and EY for companies that you buy. Because I've noticed that you've never really mention them in your articles. Many thanks KC.

Low Profitability, but High Net Debt.
Inconsistent FCF is also an issue...
Plus high valuation... hmm....

Good picks, soojinhou! :)
I've been following your comments for awhile, and realized that you're a very knowledgeable investor.
(Esp your analysis on Hevea and Inari, fantastic!)
Hope to learn more from you.

Fantastic article.

"The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism." - Benjamin Graham.

"However, he said the revision would not affect the previously planned projects."

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/putrajaya-announce-budget-tweaks-january-28

As expected. Thanks voonyoke for articles.

Official statement by HeveaBoard:
"The Company reserves all rights to take legal steps"
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4974797

@Rosmah - go send them an email la haha.

Official statement by HeveaBoard:
"The Company reserves all rights to take legal steps"
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4974797

I find it Ironic how your words are contradictory.
On one hand you said this is a free forum, on the other hand you discourage what people said.
Isn't free forum means they can say whatever they want?

Please mind your own business. Otherwise you're not that better yourself either.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600089715.jsp

You can say negatively whatever you want if it's Marcus Chan analysis alone, but how about so many other sifus who stand out to counter the rumors like Icon8888, OTB, Bursa Dummy, and so many others sifus? Did they all lie as well?

They got the credibility, you lost all your credibility.

Once awarded, they are unlikely to cut the mega projects.
Not because of the election so simple, more due to economics.
Economic terms we'd called this Expansionary Fiscal Policy, where the government uses to bring stability, reduce unemployment and growth of the economy.