Mr Koon, agree with your advice except the following comment :
If you are always too busy and have no time to review your share holdings.

If an investor is too busy to take care of too many companies, he can always just shrink his portfolio to less companies of better quality. 5-10 companies is good enough.

Mr Koon, MAGNI is another interesting company.

"If it seems too good to be true, it probably is"

I consider esceram , wellcal , luxchem, magni and hexza to be the same category, boring company with competent management in operation.

Mr Koon, I will not trust you 100% but I like to read your articles. Please keep sharing.

Xinquan is a mistake by Mr Koon. When it comes to China company , there is no way to evaluate because you cannot trust their financial statement. I advise everyone to stay away. Cannot really blame Mr Koon for this mistake because on paper Xinquan looks very good, in fact too good to be true.

For a growth company like this, just hold. I made a mistake selling half at RM 3.6

Lim Kian Leong,
I have been waiting for your recommendation. You keep saying this is bad, that is bad but where are the good ones ?

SSD is not cost effective. SSD and HDD will be serving different market eventually. HDD will be for server and cloud storage. SSD will be for localized storage.

His reading of financial statement is not too accurate, but I believe in his business acumen. At the very top of cooperate ladder figuring how to be good is not enough, but rather how to focus on strength on bring the best out of everything is even more critical. For those koon bashers, refusing to look beyond his past mistakes will only cost you learning opportunities.
Off course do not believe him 100%. Trust , But verify.

Mad price !
If the trick works on HEVEA, then it should work on VS as well !

Kian Leong,
After you are done with your girlfriends, can you please share with us your high quality counters? You set high standard but I never have a chance to read about your holdings or recommendations.

Surely undervalued, but not the most.

I am a bit disappointed that the reason behind the recent rally is share split. I was hoping for more OEM/ODM contract, not just cooperate exercise.

I bought HEVEA at RM 1.1, sold all at RM 1.9 hoping to buy back cheap again. It never happened and at the end I need to compromise and bought HEVEA-WB at RM 1.7 when OTB advised that RM 1.7 is a strong support. I missed part of HEVEA rally just because trying to be too smart.

China company listed in KLSE are most probably bad. Just avoid. Far too many failures of China company listed in KLSE, SG and HK.

Solid state is unable to replace HDD for the next 5 years at least. However, HDD sales will continue to drop because laptop market is extremely weak and there seems to be no way back for laptop. The real threat is not SS gaining more market share, but rather the whole laptop market is declining quickly.

It is much more important to get more contracts from perhaps Keurig.
Cooperate exercise has no influence on business.
Lets wait and see. If they secure new customer, even better.

Interesting article.

Do not trust any China company listed in Malaysia and you will be safe.

Do not trust any China company listed in Malaysia and you will be safe.

Tons and Tons of bullshit. Whoever buy, good luck !

Icon8888

OTB email got juicy stuff meh ? Why I never realize ?


Icon8888
Proudly declare myself a subscriber of OTB

Discontinue this year but missed his juicy emails. So I re-subscribed again two weeks ago

Sunkist118
668 posts
Posted by Sunkist118 > Jun 23, 2015 02:36 PM | Report Abuse

Icon8888 you really subscribing for Sir OTB???

Don't care about all number when China stock is concerned. Just stay away.

Don't care about all number when China stock is concerned. Just stay away.

Chance of FGV reaching RM 4 is less likely than KFIMA reaching RM 3.

Post sales of asset, GLBHD will have net cash of RM 2.1.
No company will ever trade lower than their cash position. The risk is not whether GLBHD will distribute the cash or how GLBHD　will invest, but whether FGV will pull the deal back.

optimushuat, I hope so, but I don't think so.

Please do not have too high expectation on the effect of split. With or without split, the market cap is the same. To goreng you need same amount of money.

Whether or not a stock can be goreng is dependent on size of market cap. Goreng HEVEA is easier than Armada because HEVEA market much smaller.

Just wait patiently for avalanche of dividend coming in 2-3 years time. HEVEA should worth RM5 if nothing went wrong by then.

BULL SHIT.[where is the unit] ?

bracoli, I am not sure when OTB recommend NAIM. I am his subscriber since end of last year and I cannot remember coming across NAIM.

To me NAIM is sitting on valuable assets waiting to be unlocked. Nobody will realize when the unlocking will happen. Until then, it is likely to remain undervalued. I will place a small bet on NAIM if it is cheap enough. As for OTB, I don't think so. He is very bearish on all property counters. That could be some time ago and he might have changed his mind on NAIM. Remember that if you use TA, you need to follow the price, not your ego. I prefer my ego, so my TA always failed me.

HUAT LAI is another company that is extremely poor in capital allocation. They are in a wonderful business that is really attractive to me but after going through their capital allocation, I prefer to give it a pass.

gkheng, no point knowing who wins or who loses. In investment you cannot just choose to follow the more successful person. You need to choose the method that is more suitable for your character. An example:-
FA is about making less mistakes and be confidence with your analysis. The yardstick is on company performance.
TA is about admitting mistakes fast quickly, limiting damages of mistakes and move on. The yardstick is on stock price.
What is your hunch when stock price falls ?

FA helps to measure the business side of a company. To estimate if a company can make money or survive, you need FA. Investing in company with solid fundamental would pretty much protect the downside. Theoretically if the time horizon is infinity, an investor using FA is unlikely to make any loss. Time is the friend of FA. However, you will never known when you investment is going to bear fruit and you better be patient. Using FA, you should never cut loss unless you notice a "fundamental" change in company, not share price changes.

TA helps to measure the short term perception of investment community towards a company. Over time however, the sentiment will change and it can change rather rapidly. Time factor is tricky to TA. As a result, cut loss is critical to TA because a cut loss point indicates a change in sentiment.

Both FA and TA will make money. TA will run a higher risk of being wipe out but the reward is higher ROI. However, I believe TA is actually harder to master. Any average Joe better learn FA before trying TA. It is easy to have modest return from Investment using FA. I do not know too many who survives for a long period of time using purely TA. In fact I believe to be good in TA, you need to be smarter than average.

Comparing FA and TA are like comparing a Goalkeeper versus a Striker.

I have some confidence in my FA as long as the business is not too complicated. I subscribe to OTB because I have proven myself bad in TA. In addition, OTB is not a pure TA either. OTB is using TA with FA blended in.

Take the case of FGV. Neither Kcchong will not buy. OTB will not buy either no matter how good the chart is because it fails he FA criteria.

Take another case of Kuchai. Kcchong will buy because it is deeply undervalue. OTB will buy when there is signal that something is going to happen to the company. OTB will probably buy at a higher price, less waiting time.

Which method is better ? If you ask me, FA , because I am not so smart. But I believe no one should try to touch TA before having knowledge in FA.

Proposed par value is 25 cent, so split into 4. Share quantity ×4, share price /4. Anyway this does not matter much. Share split we do not need to do anything.

Mr Koon, don't understand why you are taking at swipe at KC Chong at the end of your inspiring story.

KC Chong is analyzing the past performance of VS. The selling point of VS is the potential revenue from KEURIG. Looking at the past will give us a clear picture that VS is in an industry that is bad for capital. However, past financial reports may not paint a clear picture of future. I am holding on to VS because I believe revenue from KEURIG could be a turning point for VS. I am holding on to VS because I believe more and more OEM will leave China due to rising cost and VS is in the right position to reap the windfall.

If you pay attention to KC Chong's stock pick, 3 major characteristics:
1). Company that are sitting on assets that is far above the EV of the company.
2). Company that has a very good ROIC and cash flow.
3). Company that has been consistent in their past financial performance.
KC Chong is looking at a company through rear view mirror and as a result, he will pay a higher price for the criteria that he wants.

Latitud, Hevea, Prolexus, VS, Po Huat are all turn around companies. It is very logical that these companies does not fit KC Chong's criteria. Probably 2 years from now some of them will if they can be consistent. I have VS and I continue to hold VS and I don't think KC Chong's article is going to change my opinion on VS. Revenue of VS will.

The "stick" is different. Therefore the result is different. No need to be surprised or irritated.

Murali, come on. How can a person of your caliber be short of fun ?

Kcchongnz, I own VS share.I believe I never attack or insult your analysis, partly because I am still trying to comprehend your analysis. I bought VS for the recently surge in revenue due to keurig. No matter what is your analysis, I will be holding on my VS for 6 more months, because I believe the jump in revenue could be different from before. However, I still really appreciate your analysis because that allow me to have a good understanding of VS. Thank you very much.

A bit fed up with the amount of speculators in hevea.

Actually MMSV, IQGROUP, ELSOFT, LCTH all not posting good result. Could be a cyclical effect.

Look at the report. Profit is 14 million, 27 million operating cash flow.
Really wonderful result, a small increase in revenue results in big profit growth.
I have just change some of my IQGROUP to HEVEA-WB. the 147 just now done by me.

Super Result. Split or no Split, Bonus or no Bonus share will fly!

Do not follow nta lah, follow earning power. Eps will increase by 40%, so stock price probably 40%.
3 × 1.4 = 4.2
Beyond 4.2 definitely not a good buy.

A bit surprised not much substance from Koon Yew Yin's investment talk.

Nice one from HEVEA. Price drop after announcing share split.

Despite all these sweeteners, the company remains the same.
If you like this company with quaterly EPS of 8-10 sen and strong cash flow, just buy.
Otherwise stay away. Don't hope for all the cooperate exercise. We determine our own fate.

Share split or bonus issue will not change the fundamental of company.
If share split have little impact on share price, same goes to bonue issue.
Just ignore all these noise. HEVEA management better focus on getting more business and generating more cash.

oregami, no cheap HEVEA available.
Share split will not change fundamental, so no justification for share price to go up.
However, no bonus issue also should not push the price down. After all bonus issue or share split should not change the fundamental.
Share price going up after bonus issue is irrational behavior of retail investor.
The only possibilities for you to collect cheap HEVEA is that some investor hoping for bonus issue might be disappointed and dump HEVEA.

As long term investor, I am only interest in cash flow and cash distribution. I do not want to bet for or against cooperate exercise so I just hold tight to my HEVEA.

If no split no bonus goreng kaki would be gorenged ! So don't simply goreng.

Hei, if no announcement next week would be panic sell !
However , that would not have any impact on the fundamental of HEVEA.

Quality : KESM is not a company with good quality. ROIC is poor at 8% regardless of before or after taking over the Test Division. That means either the management over-invested in the past or they are in a competitive and capital intensive which is normally not a good place to allocate our capital.

Valuation : Valuation wise KESM is cheap. Enterprise Value is as low as 4-5. Investors only willing to give KESM a market cap of 120 million even though the net cash is already close to 60 million and assets are at 180 million.

Cash flow : KESM will definitely survive. 60 million of cash + positive Free Cash Flow.

Investing in KESM is investing in a lackluster company at a cheap price. The risk is that the turn around will never materialize and we suffer opportunity cost. Looking at the low risk associated, I am with NOBY. I will collect some today.

Hold until annual report out, to see my name in the top 30.