Investment is about logical and rational thinking about facts :
1). Past 9 months HEVEA generated RM 46 million of profits
2). Past 9 months cash position of HEVEA improve by about RM 40 millions
3). Past 9 months debt of HEVEA reduced by around RM 20 millions.

Containers in KOREA ? Assuming worst exposure, how much can it be? It is a one off item [Worst case scenario]
Court case between 2 major shareholders ? I don't care.

Careful check on financial statement of HEVEA found no red flags.
No abnormal increase in CAPEX.
No abnormal increase in inventory.
No abnormal increase in receivables.

Anyone sell HEVEA because of high valuation may be sensible. HEVEA is not cheap.
Anyone who sell HEVEA because of the rumours should avoid KLSE altogether.

Mr Tan, are we allowed to select both mother share and warrant together, say hevea 20% and hevea-wb 20% ?

After 1 week, surprisingly top performer is KEINHIN. I already benefited from joining the contest. Discover a hidden gem TIENWAH form YiStock portfolio and managed to buy some in my real portfolio !

Ha Ha ! Sea cucumber. Really gao gao wet wet !

Juicy stuff ?

Icon8888, so far nobody post any details about the litigation. We have no details what it is all about. If it is something related to unlawful dismissal, then really small matters.

In addition, if HEVEA is in defense of the litigation, then it is not right for HEVEA not to report this in BURSA. However, if it is SHAREHOLDER of HEVEA in defense of the litigation, then HEVEA does not need to file this to BURSA.

If price drop enough, I may consider buying!

How much does these 700 containers worth and how much is HEVEA's inventory in their book ?

700 containers missing ?
Good. Claim insurance, then reproduce, extra profit !

Value traders is not suitable for investors with large sum to invest.
If the amount to be invested is hundreds of millions, dashing in and out of the market would be a problem.

It seems to be after a successful 2015, uncle Koon is allowing old ghost to come back and haunt him again !

Mr Tan, below are my stock picks :
1). UMSNGB - 10%, low cost manufacturing Vietnam
2). PCCS - 10%, low cost manufacturing Cambodia
3). KEINHIN - 10%, low cost manufacturing Vietnam
4). FRONTKN - 10%
5). JOHORTIN - 10%, contribution from new factory
6). MAGNI - 10%, low cost manufacturing Vietnam, OEM business under a strong brand.
7). VS - 10%, OEM business under a strong brand.
8). PANAMY - 10%, GST benefiting electrical appliances.
9). SCIENTX - 10%, contribution from new factory
10). HEVEA-WB - 10%, Strong cash flow.

In ICON we trust.

I was looking to make a choice between LTKM and AJI one and half year ago. At the end I choose LTKM.

Actually this fellow has been crying bear ever since end of 2013. He cries bear in 2014 and 2015, so I assume he has almost no stock in hand.

If we follow index, FBMKLCI, then he may have certain accuracy as KLCI　peaked in 2014. If we follow individual stock, he is a piece of shit. There are so much money to be made in 2013/2014/2015 via export stock and yet he missed all of it. Whoever follow his advise will probably need to work for 10 more years to make up for opportunity lost.

PE is for novice, or during initial screening. Ability to generate cash is what matters most.

It would be good had they did not spend RM 6 million for a piece of land.

Looking at the cash flow, bankruptcy is closer than RM 2.

RM 1.1 will not happen. Even with "lousy" EPS of 3.5 cent per quarter, annual EPS is 14 cent. A modest PE of 10 will fetch RM 1.4. Couple that with the fact that revenue growth is round the corner, I would say lowest around RM 1.6 - RM 1.7

I still believe JOHORTIN is in the right industry with the right expansion plan. However, if the management is so inconsistent, one will need a larger margin of safety.

My cost for Johortin is very low. Nevertheless, I am still disappointed with the result :
1). Johortin managed to increase revenue from 60 million to 90 million. The increase in revenue is consistent but that does not translate to consistent performance in profit. Apparently there is a margin erosion in some of the business.
2). In terms of cash flow and forex management, Johortin management seems to be not paying much attention. Perhaps they are more focused on manufacturing activities then financial management.

Starting new factory is not easy. Given the track record of Johortin management, we may see negative cash flow in the next quarter due to inventory for factory startup. I emphasize, may.

I will sell half of my Johortin. I am still interested in their business and new factory.

ICON8888, any particular reason you are attracted to SUCCESS ? The cash flow is not so good.

I am not saying that ESCERAMIC will go up. I am just trying to explain that zbaikitree2 seems like never did any homework before commenting. ESCERAMIC has a prudent management that increase cash much more than earning. If management of ESCERAMIC are poor then more than 90% of companies in KLSE are worse.

zbaikitree2, what are you talking about ?

Look at the annual report and you will find a few fund holdings in the Top 30 at position (3), (4), (7),(8), (29), (30). I have invested in ESCERAMIC for past 18 months. Do your homework.

Why glove company cannot make their own mould ? Simple, because the business is so small that it does not worth the effort. Otherwise McDonald should also operate a farm !

Mr Koon, time will tell if kcchong made a bad call on VS.
Even if he did, so what ? As long as he is deploying his cash in a manner that he is comfortable with and get handsome return along the way, he can continue to go his way.
In fact,if I look at investment calls between you and him over the past 3-5 years, kcchong is as good as you if not better than you.

kcchongnz, just ignore that old man lah.

AERO slow down unlikely to hit SAM.
The order book is 5-8 years of revenue. Typically cancel of order will subject to penalty of 40%. SAM only get into trouble if there is no replenish of order for next 5 years, which is unlikely. If you look at how SAM management handle their cash, you will know how confidence they are. Even with such a huge order book we did not heard SAM going on aggressive expansion, so their management are very careful.

Manufacturing would always hit by excess capacity due to greed and over expansion. Same would probably happen to AERO in future, but that looks more like a distant future.

看起来是买好票就出REPORT 了

Mr Koon, just because you did well this year does not mean that you are as good as Warren Buffet. Some arguments from me :

3). Just because you cannot appreciate quality company does not mean that there is none in Malaysia. When you capital gets big there is little choice but to invest in good company for longer term.

6). Statistics ? What Statistics ? If you have more respect for detailness success rate will definitely be higher.

I have to salute your business acumen, your decision making capability and your commitment to charity. However, please try to avoid belittling others. This is a nice article.

Mr Koon, please keep sharing, perhaps with less boasting in future.

一派胡言。作者本身心态有问题，就讲价值投资没用。不是价值投资没用，是作者不会。
当然作者转战短线，也许是一个正确的决定。不是每个人都适合价值投资.

This counter better than VS. VS cash flow not as good.In addition NIKE sales is more stable if compared to KEURIG.

Thank You Mr Koon

以股票价格停损的手法来投资, 不如去放 fd.

Kcchongnz, thanks for answering my questions in detailed.

kcchongnz,
The shares in your table 1 are not so good companies.
1). Daya. Despite all the hype, Daya is always trading at a high PE.
2). FGVB. I doubt the competency of the management.
3). Parkson. They are unlucky to be facing onslaught of online purchase but their self denial also cost them precious time.
4). Skpetro. Again, trading at a high PE.
The only company that I agreed is good is Coastal.

Kcchongnz, have you did an analysis on SAM or MAGNI before ?

SAM is a value buy. I doubt spectacular growth is coming but the huge order book is a good anchor for investment.Buffet is making the same bet on aircraft industry as well.Strong cash flow is another plus.
However, current eps should only be around 40 cent.
The dilution of la need to be taken into consideration.

Excellent article.
Actually any company with capex consistently higher than depreciation is not a good deal.
Apart from capex, another place that is sucking cash flow is inventory. However,that is less common in klse.

catalist comment is relatively concrete. Something for us to watch out. Over supply is always not good.

I checked through PriyankaC's comment. His comment are all targeting KYY. He must have lost a lot of money following KYY's tip.
My deepest condolence to PriyankaC. This time however, I think PriyankaC has got it wrong again by going against KYY's tip.

PriyankaC do you know what are you talking about ?
The great result posted by Latitude started around June 2013.
At that time 1 MYR =1.8 RMB. There are even time where 1 MYR = 1.93RMB over the 2 years period yet revenue of Latitude hold firm. Right now 1MYR = 1.53 RMB. Even if MYR recover to 1.9 or even 2 RMB, there will be no impact. Exchange rate between RMB and MYR has little impact on Latitude. Latitude is not bullet proof but exchange rate is definitely not the bullet.

Hevea main export to china and japan.

If you looked at Minho earning pattern, you will realize that this is a stock with inconsistent earning.
In investment you cannot allocate too much fund to this type of stock. If furniture is the theme, better choices are LIIHEN, LATITUDE or even HOMERIZ.

MAGNI better. MAGNI is selling to NIKE. NIKE will do well regardless of economic situation. KESM earning not as stable as MAGNI .
Prolexus is better, but at current price too expensive if compared to MAGNI.

I hold VS and I plan to hold VS until VS prove to me that there is no more growth available or PE go over 20. However, new comers please beware that VS received a lot of coverage so the price could get speculative.

Everything looks good until I saw that CAPEX is more than Depreciation. I will pass this.

No idea how to calculate. If KLCI is 1800 on the maturity date, what is the value of this warrant ? zero ?

Latitud stock price is abnormal. Something is brewing !

GST will reduce consumption, so 4.9% is good. What do you expect ?

I will continue to buy SAM.