you not happy here ?

go back to NZ lah

then you can laugh everyday

Posted by supersaiyan3 > Aug 11, 2019 11:36 PM | Report Abuse

NZ is a nice place for retirement, lots of (Asian) friends who are not doing anything also. So, just play all day long together.

It was the happiest days of my life when I was in NZ. Laugh every day.

ya, your QL is in this business also

so Herbert's chicken are susceptible to Viruses and yours are not



Posted by (S=QR) Philip > Aug 11, 2019 7:57 AM | Report Abuse

LAYHONG, here are the facts.

Oversupply of DOC and eggs? Facts.
Only one business model? Fact.
Very low margins, high competition? Fact.
Disease and illness ? Fact.
Poor growth history? Fact.
Not market leader? Fact.
Lackluster management? Fact.
No expansion plans? Fact.
Poor share price performance? Fact.

There are so many assumptions to make to predict LAYHONG success, I find it so hard to even try.

business is very complicated

there are all kind of black swan events

nobody can claim that he is investing based on facts alone

luck does play an important role

facts ? all these "facts" went out of the window when US clashed with China, flooding Asian market with their unsold products

the petrochemical market in Asia will potentially face depressed market condition for years to come

what is so big deal about the increase of production capacity PIC ?

are you still sure that pchem's profitability will increase after PIC kicks in ?

see what I mean ?



Posted by (S=QR) Philip > Aug 11, 2019 7:51 AM | Report Abuse

Minimized assumptions, maximized facts.

What are facts for pchem?

PIC completion: fact.
Increase of revenue from production of PIC: guaranteed.
High net profit from sustainable business advantage: fact.
20% PAT: fact.
No losing quarters in last 10 years: fact.
Consistent yearly growth: fact.
Cash hoard: fact.
Resilient business model: fact.
China trade war temporary: fact. ( Until they dump Trump).
Pchem market leader in sea? Fact.
Business model resistant to disruption? Fact.

the problem with you is that you keep claiming that you invest based on facts, as though they are permanent and will be true forever

what I am saying is that those so called facts will change beyond recognition when circumstances change

in other words, everybody is investing based on certain degree of guesses and assumptions

nobody invest based on facts alone

I don't disagree with this. In one of my recent articles, I talked about it as "Cyclical issues" vs. "Structural Issues"


Posted by (S=QR) Philip > Aug 11, 2019 7:49 PM | Report Abuse

The term circumstances is the difference between making and losing money. Temporary change in circumstance is just another reason to invest, a permanent change in circumstance ( like LAYHONG) is a big reason to just stay away.

Main kuku

Pchem is going down to RM5

Then Philips can do a vlog

My point is that life is complicated and business is volatile

Nobody can claim to act based on facts all the time

Whatever facts you think they are will become irrelevant once circumstances change

Is buying pchem based on facts or assumptions ?

If can maintain previous quarter EPS, can breach 30 Sen soon

Hopefully result is good

the next thing he will do is go supermarket sapu all the layhong eggs so as to push up revenue

So desperate he is

I dug out CIMB reports past two years. The analyst Raymond was originally very supportive. But one after another bad news, he was so shaken until he freaked out, swing to the extreme (pessimism) and downgraded to 10 Sen. The poor soul must have gone through a lot, I think he must have quite big personal stake in this stock.

SuperPanda still remember cimb TP .10 until now cannot reach, even .205 also hard to buy
08/08/2019 5:46 PM

Careful

Plywood price depressed

Maybe result will be good

Some shipments delayed in last quarter

Maybe spill over to this quarter

TP RM80

Long winding road ahead

Huawei boss secured a 5G deal from Slovenia president during G20

He asked the Slovenia president why he chose huawei ? The president told him "last time I didn't know much about Huawei, but now I saw US bashed huawei like this, huawei must be very good"

Laugh die me

As a matter of fact, by attacking china, trump did a big favour for china

Imagine the number one superpower of the world attacked china for one full year, and yet china still standing tall and go about life as normal

now the whole world can see how strong and resilient china is

It is akin to a big, free adverstisement for china to promote its soft power

Deep from its heart, China say "Thank you very much Donal trump "

Trump overplayed his hand. His Art of the Deal might work in business, but dealing with a near peer country is a totally different story

Slow death ? What slow death ? China is laughing all the way to the bank

To understand why china yawns at trump's tariff , you need to look at figures

In 2018, china total export is USD2,300 bil

Export to US is USD500 bil

Meaning 22% of its total export is to US, while 78% (USD1,800 bil) is to the rest of the world

In 2018, when trump attacked china by imposing tariff , RMB to USD exchange rate declined from 6 to 7, a drop of 15%

What is the implication ?

Fair enough, its USD500 bil export to US suffered. Let's say it suffered by 25% x USD500 bil. It is equivalent to USD125 bil

But due to decline in RMB，the profit margin of its remaining export to the rest of the world experience huge expansion. For simplistic comparison purpose, 15% x USD1,800 bil = USD270 bil

Let me sum it up for you : Penalty by US is USD125 bil, while gain from rest of the world is USD270 bil

If you are China, won't you yawn at Trump's tariff ?

I think china yawns when they heard of the additional tariff on USD300 bil

Their GDP is USD12,000 billion , USD300 bil is only 2.5% of its GDP

zzzzz

Why strong profit price still drop ?

ya Loh why only 10%, if got balls go straight to 25%

Boring....

Sumatec = Semua 跌

Maybe you should write more

Talk more warren buffett maybe one day can become warren buffett

Ask 3iii

Don't celebrate too early. Huawei not out of the wood yet. It relies on TSMC 7nm fab to make its Kirin

If US forces TSMC to join the embargo, huawei will die

Attractive

it is irritating to see people keep on talking about syndicates

I have been in the market several decades never bother about syndicates yet I made tonnes and tonnes of money

when you talk about syndicates, that means you are seeing Stockmarket the wrong way. You will not succeed until you start seeing things from fundamentals point of view

Yes one day Vietnam will overtake us

I have a Friend who is working in Vietnam, I asked him whether Vietnamese are intelligent (we all know they are hardworking). He said YES

Meaning one day they will overtake us in technological sophistication and moves further up the value chain

3iii reads a few books and he thinks he is warren buffett

HK is China's pimple

Just pop it

No big deal

Nobody cares

In 2018 I bought 25 it went to 11

Painful experience

25 also I won't buy

15 I consider

Don't tell me you guys are still holding the warrants

Share price is driven by earning growth

The sooner you realise this the sooner you escape from stagnation

For me cut loss is an exception not a norm

I don't tactically cut lost

Only cut loss in the event of cyclical upheavals when I was trapped big time

Such as oil and gas in 2014, or steel counters in 2018

But cheoky... if you cut lost will you be able to make money from Heitech Padu ?

Can't you choose a cat logo ?

What is a cat doing with a horse logo ?

Lazycat don't listen to cynics

Continue writing

Beary Hairy is fortunebullz

Extremely irresponsible and insensitive things he said

Calvin must be a very good man because he Everyday talks religion

Must be

3iii is the king of empty talks

That s guy make money don't know

Talk a lot he knows

zzzzz keep talking about the same old stuffs

Snore snore

everytime I can't sleep I will read his postings

And very soon will zzzzzz

Everytime you see 3iii postings frantically about his investment philosophy, you know he is panicking about his underperformance and is trying to calm himself down

Everyday talk buffett won't turn you into buffett