Trendt, appreciate your effort to provide the Audio or sound instrument demand information. Hope in your next write up, you will provide some details on how the audio industry growth can benefit FPI. More in quantitative kind of analysis i.e. expected growth of FPI revenue in meeting the demand and the profit margin.

If you compare Q3 and Q4, it is quite obvious that Q4 manufacturer expenses and admin expenses in Q4 are 20M and 10M more respectively if compare to Q3. if you attend the AGM, you should ask this question why cause such a volatility and how the management is going to reduce such volatility. I think you should avoid question 3 as I dont think any listed company can answer your question on the price volatility and the IV of the company share.

This is just another example of 馬後砲. You should have post this when the share price was on the way up not now.

Tong has orna in his portfolio so when muda price drop, orna will follow as orna is in the downstream and muda has both upstream and downstream. How can orna be good if muda is not performing. ORNA also source their raw material from Muda.

before the Q1 is out everyone can guess without putting effort to provide detail analysis. The party guess correctly will claim "I told you so". This is really like flipping a coin. Those that did not manage to buy the stock in lower price earleir and those that had take profit of course all will want the share price to go down. The moment they buy back the share they will sing the other way round.

There was a one time gain of 9 million in the PBT, 7 from insurance and 2 from tax recovery. if taking into the effective tax, the PAT should be around 25M or earning per share 7.5 cents. Annualise will be around 30 cents. Now it is up to you what PE you will apply i.e. if PE 10 it will be 3, PE 12 it will be 3.6.

I guess the price shoot up is all due to investor convinced that its profit margin will shoot up due to lower cost of used paper and higher selling price of its paper product. On top of it, the expansion plan the the potential full utilization of the current plant is what investor is looking for.

E-Commerce will continue to be strong hence the demand for corrugated box will be there. Bear in mind, Muda has not really increase its paper price yet so the lagging effect in the coming quarter will presume to be better and better.

I am just based on what is reported in the latest quarterly result and may be wrong. Please do your own homework.

Company keep buying back the share on between 1.15 to 1.2. But the market is keeping selling so it seems like market know better than the DUFU management.

Fiona. SSB had started providing provision for the potential losses in the court case in the last few quarter. Haven’t really check how much has been provision. Since you want to educate people here may be you can check it out. On the EPS, even is diluted it is still very high compare to others steel maker. So what make you think current price is fully value. Again please educate us your calculation to justify your claim.

Sorry it looks more like Euro than pound. My mistake

Danilie Thailand is claiming 2.8M pound or about RM 15M payment. Cant find anything mentioning 100M.

Us 3 major index has been overbought for more than 1 month. Correction is a sure thing. However to term correction as crash I think it is a bit overdone for now. You need to provide economy data to justify if this is a crash. The basic question is us economy on the downtrend? Is us inflation gone the uptrend? Is the job market in us is in bad shape. Is fed going to increase rate very frequently this year?

Seagate share price is touching 47 today from 32 in Jul. Dufu is still trading lower than its price in Jul.

Dufu will be a fight between FA and TA and also fight between those who believe HDD is here to stay and those who believe it is a sunset biz. Well in few months time, we shall know the result.

Not easy to fight the TA guys who is selling big now. All TA indicates a sell signal. Now only the next quarterly result will help to boost the confidence.

quite hard to meet the Q4 2016 result but chances is high that it will continue to register 3.8 to 4.5 EPS as Q4 is always the strongest season. So I believe 2017 normalize EPS will still be around 16 cents . The question is what PE will be applied. All tech stock enjoy double digit PE even small cap like MMSV. So if we apply PE 8 and with 19 cents cash per share, the fair price should be 1.47. The current sell down could be from those TA investor as the price is now below SMA 200. Will see if the EVLI fund buy again like what they did in April.

There are 4 family members exercise their rights - most likely share option or they bought from the market which diluted another 2 major shareholder control stake to below the 30% largest shareholder.

Good Job but please study if you can the operating cost of the 3 company in Q2 especially LIONIND and compare with your estimated Q3 operating cost.

If I have 1 Million and I leave it in EPF with average 6% annual dividend, I still can withdraw 60K a year without touching my principal. Nowadays EPF allow member to withdraw the dividend only. So if you are not good and hardwork in equity investment, don't ever think to take the risk.

Have done my part. All the best to miss Choo. may the force with her

Acquiring or disposing - Can we complain to SC?

Date of Change Type Number of Shares
14-Aug-2017 Acquired 80,000
Registered Name Lee, Su Hui-Fen
Registered Address 6F., No. 3, Lane 381, Yanji Street, Tucheng Dist., New Taipei City, 23649 Taiwan, R.O.C.
Nature of Interest Direct Interest
Nature of Interest Direct Interest
Shares ORDINARY SHARE
Reason Disposal through Open Market

FutureEye, you need to back test your calculation on the past Q result to confirm the accuracy.

End product margin definitely will not follow the decrease rate of crude oil price. Anyway, you can use the previous quarter which has the stock/inventory loss to prove your calculation is correct.

Not right to consider 100% of inventory are made up of only crude oil. We are not sure the ratio of crude oil and the end product but definitely not 100%.

Well done. It is a blessing in disguise that you didn't win in the early stage when you were not even know what is stock market. Many beginner lost a lot of money because they don't know how to differentiate between luck and skill. Luck will always come to the end one day but skill is where you develop for your long time investment. You must learn from others but not follows others. The end of day, you need to have your own strategy that suit you because of your emotion and your capital is different from others. Be humble and keep learning and improving your strategy that is able to continue working in different market condition.
Besides learning how to invest in right stock, the more difficult part will come is when to sell for profit taking and sometimes is to cut loss. On top of it, you also need to learn portfolio management and capital management which will decide how many stocks to invest and the ratio of cash vs investment in different marker condition. Lastly, you need to be active in the investment forum to learn the world and domestic macro economy which will help you to make a better decision on the company to invest.

Hi Probability,
Hope you wont mind if I ask a stupid question here. May I know whether the total amount of inventory in the financial report refers to the finishing product or both the raw material and finishing product.

We are here to learn from each other not to hate each other. There is no right or wrong so please be mature in making your own dicision. Please also don't underestimate the intellectual of others by calling them untie or uncle. A lot of them are smarter than you think.
If you don't agree with anyone comment please provide facts with figures and just rest your case. Don't force others to agree or disagree with you. Sad to see why people are so emotional and not following the rule in I3investor.

I just read the Petron Q1 report and found that Petronm reported 8.3M brl sold in Q1 2017. I saw you use 4.7M thruput for Petron in your previous calculation. Just to know why you dont use the sales volume instead?

Hi Probability, do you mind to share how you derive the quarterly thruput i.e. 9.5K for HY. Are you using the total revenue or is there any thing we can refer to the quarterly report or annual report.

Big Thanks to all the G5 guru. You really help to enlighten everyone of us in terms of refinery business. investment is like owning a company and know the company biz. Sadly not many really do like what the G5 guru did. Anyway the good things is that the market inefficiency provide opportunity for those who make the effort to understand the biz.

Thanks Jay for the sharing. May I know where you obtain the crack spread info?

Thanks probability. In summmary am I right to say that high crude oil price will have disadvantages on the profit margin which will outdo the stock gain as the stock will be replenished every 30 days. So if crude oil prices continue to go up, the refinery biz will have problem

Current IT trend is.now focusing on IOT, AI, mobility and wearable. These are more on consumer end. Market tend to be more interested in this prospect then the back office system which required huge data storage processing power. The big data and ecormmerce industry is the good example where big data storage is required. Whoever can embark on the technology that provide big data solution will be as promising as those consumer end technology. Market seems to be in favour of consumer end tech company and willing to pay high PE than the data storage solution provider.

Sorry I meant Q1 2016

逍遥子 Hope I can attend the AGM and meet you there.

If I cannot make it, appreciate if those who attend can ask the following question to the management.

As an investor, I am sure we all share the same concern whether there is a repeat of choppy performance like Q3 2015 and Q4 2016 as a result of refinery plant shut down for maintenance and the inconsistency of the refinery margin due to crude oil price + exchange rate. So the question whether there is any better way to manage the business to reduce such choppy performance in the upcoming quarter i.e. is the first in first out the best way to manage the inventory or is there any other way.

Don't ever use your hard earned bonus in any suspected pump and dump counter. Plenty of them in the current market condition

Thanks

There is a 3 million expenses for the new share listing. Is it considered a one time cost

Managing 100k and 500k and 1 mil fund is very different. If you have 1 million do you put all your money in stock market whiole year long? So the the % of yearly performance cannot bee used to apply to the total fund one have.

Mr. Koon. First of all there is no 100% perfect investment strategy in the stock market. Secondly everybody is different in terms of emotion and capital. Hence please do not ask others to follow your golden rules as it may work for you but definitely not others especially small retail investor with only small capital and having full time job.

To "consistently" win in the market, a person need to have confident in his investment rules and have capital to invest when opportunity arises. Having said that the person need at least 3 years to be mature on the investment rules that best suitable to him/her and must keep improving the strategy from time to time as market behavior keep changing. Nothing comes easy, hardwork is always the key to success.

eliminate the one time PBT of 6.6M of asset sale and 1.62 forex gain, the company still report 3.46 EPS. The comprehensive income of net fair value changes in available-for-sale financial assets of 4Mis not recognized in this quarter yet. with total cash of 64 cents per share and TTM EPS (after removing all the one time gain and one time loss items) of 9.75 and with PE =8, the fair value should be 1.42. If I am the owner I will privatize this company and pay the NTA of 1.18/share.

Nothing is impossible in the market. Do not make any conclusion just based on share price over a few months horizon. These is the problem with most retail investor, only look for easy way to invest and quick return. If market is so easy to earn money, everyone will quit their job. Like wise if there is a sure win stock pick, everyone is winner then who is the loser?

A stock with cash per share of 83 cents and roic > 40% is not fair just simply use pe 10 to evaluate the TP.

A company with EY 30%, ROIC 40%, DY 8.3%, Cash per share 83/share. Growing cash flow over the last 5 years since the IPO. Mature biz with min capex for the on going biz. So what went wrong?

Hypothesis #1 : IB is force selling someone's account due to margin call. You know I know...

Hypothesis #2 : Market maker is speculating downward and accumulate at cheaper price knowing there are just too many retailers in this counter so that they can sell at higher price in anticipating a better result in Q2. If this is the case, the more you buy, the lower it go down.

Hypothesis #3 : The coming Q2 result is going to be very bad. Since IPO, company had never reported losses before moreover big fund will not sell down to escape but will likely speculate upward first to escape. Anyway nothing is impossible.

Above is just hypotheses, in less than 2 months time the true will be known. May the force with you for those who are die hard....

investing in a company is not about how much cash a company have but having said that it is safer if compare to company with high debt.

It is also not right to compare FACBIND and FLBDB although both are cash rich company as both are having very different business. The price that you are investing in a company is for the future of the company. So you have to know which company can have a better chance to provide you ROI not just comparing the cash per share.

KC method is to buy good fundamental stock with discount. Understanding FA especially cash flow allow him to know whether the managenent is efficient and consistent in managing the company asset to generate the revenue. From here he has the confidence to calculate the intrinsic value using either DCF or DDF or absolute PE as he assume that the efficiency will persist in the next few years time. He also advocate diversify as he acknowledge that he may not be right all the time also with intention to lower the risk of putting all eggs in one basket. in fact it is the downside that he is more worry than upside but of course if company fundemental had changed I do think he will sell. So it is not true that he will hold for the stock for very long time.

In this volatile market, you can't expect fast return with the above portfolio as the momentum element is missing. Some may face risk of forex loss like magni. In the long run, I think you will win but need to have bullet to lower your cost when opportunity comes. Market may experience downside risk.

Up_Down, when only price dropped drastically in a a very short period of time is considered PUMP and DUMP. If slowly die not considered... This is what I learn from those started with this term. But again you point out the right thing, why not also consider your scenario as PUMP and DUMP....

Hi KC, I have no doubt on the value investment approach with regard to invest in good FA stock with bargain or discount. However, holding a portfolio for a very long period of time may not be consistently increase the return Year on Year. Your portfolio may return 300% in 2015 but this year the portfolio return may be reduced to 200% which means this year your net return is -ve 100%. So comparing the buying price vs. the current price is not a good measurement if the same portfolio is not able to generate compounded profit Year on Year.

I do understand that in value investment, we only sell when the price is > intrinsic value but in reality not all stock will achieve the target price due to whatever reason such as we may over estimate or due to market sentiment turn bearish. So just wonder how you manage your portfolio in this case to achieve the compounded year on year profit.

As usual those not caught in this famous pump and dump stock will start to give their view - See I have warned you before bra..bra..bra..

CPTEH is always the first one to jump out and his comment on from nothing to something which I found it very weird because there is always something to move up the price and cannot be nothing at all. If nothing how to attract people to buy.

There is no way we can 100% sure that this is another pump and dump stock. Even if it is eventually but at which point we consider it as pump and dump when the stock start to rise. For example If you bought below 60 cents and when the price reach > 90 cents, do you consider this as pump and dump? So only those bought > todays closing price is consider pump and dump?

Please do not judge a stock as pump and dump just because the share price dropped drastically. What if the company announced another good result later on and price recover like AirAsia in August 2016? Why no one say that AirAsia is a pump and dump stock in then?

In summary there are always risk in stock market so learning how to reduce the risk instead of thinking how to earn big is always the right thing to do. Take care of the downside and let the upside take care of itself.

I just commented about investment strategy in another blog. Anyway, you are right that you are your own guru and have your own strategy to start with. To me, a good investor is a investor who shows consistent profit in stock market in the long run which I am talking about 5 to 10 years times.It is nothing to do with how many years the person is in stock market or whether he had gone thru the financial crisis.