Sharing some new on recent takeover of MAHB....."Kenanga said the offer price of RM11 a share translates to 26x and 20x of its FY25 forecast earnings per share (EPS) and FY25 consensus EPS respectively. This implies a discount of 26%-42% compared to closest listed peer Airport of Thailand, which trades at 35x consensus FY25F EPS."
Amazing how airport operators are looking at 25-35 PER, while YTL at currently about 20x PER is already considered high :-) peace

rhb is currently the best paying dividend counter in terms of current price yield :-) will be heading here on my retirement.... peace (or earlier depending on how much my wife spends these days)

dear fellow ytlp-ians..... i finally found 2 chinks in the armour of ytlp, as follows.... for dragon328 and OTB to give their view...
1) the average USEP for period jan-mar2024 is S$159 as compared to S$176 per kWh in the prior quarter oct-dec2023, therefore denoting close to 10% reduction. Assuming the whole of the seraya revenue is USEP driven, then we can expect a 10% reduction in revenue. Last qtr the revenue from power was RM3.75b, so we can expect to see 10% or RM375m reduction in revenue and therefore RM375 reduction in profits. This is surely possible. To make matters worse the kWh consumption is also lower in this period compared to prior period. This si going to negatively impact upcoming Qresults.
2) The RM is slowly strengthening and its now at 3.48 and is expected to continue to strengthen as the feds will finally start lowering the rates some sept 2024. This is not a if question, but a when question. Feds sill surely reduce rate just a question of when sept or dec 2024? This will not impact upcoming results but future results...
Everyone shd be warned of this fact.... peace

most welcome on the article @jeffchan1901 and @chon99 .... glad to liked it, francis yeoh is a real visionary.... sad he lost his wife (loving and did lots of designing work) and staying single and devoted to family and christ.... we can all learn from him truly ..... peace

@alexgan9918 .... ytl is currently a little overvalued, but there is lots of upside to it coming from ytlp as well as mcement, but mainly from ytlp and its exposure to DC and johor-sing SEZ, and lastly there is also the HSR opportunity.... and share price are basically driven by the upsides... how much of these upsides turn into actual...is everyone's guess ... happy hunting, peace

interesting read... francis yeoh's acquisition spree..... bot wesset for 1.3b and now worth 3,5b... https://www.forbes.com/global/2009/0608/malaysia-40-richest-francis-yeoh-last-laugh.html?sh=7517ee4f3609

some analysis for GenB shareholders :-) share is trading at current T4Q earnings of 24c at PE of 19.61x, in order to achieve lets say PE of 12x (which is currently YTLP PE)..... GenB need to make 38c in annual earnings... moving forward. Can this be achieved?? EPS B4 covid historical; 2019-51c; 2018-35c and 2017-39c... averaging at 41c..... is this worth the wait?..... (Note: YTLP is currently making 10c a qtr, and known to achieve 40c per annum- kinda) ....peace

just full moons ago.... the KLCI index and the utilities index was at about the same 15xx ish.... and i used to use it as benchmark to see who doing better daily.... and today KLCI is at 1605 and utility index at 1753.... one raced far ahead ... peace

Land sale – a normal course of business. The transaction marks AME’s first deal in the data centre segment. The sale of 34.91 acres of freehold industrial land in AME’s i-TechValley to Digital Hypersapce Malaysia (DHM) is for a total consideration of MYR209.84m. This translates to MYR138 psf, considered a record high as the disposal is on a “as is where is” basis (vs an ASP of MYR85-90 psf to a manufacturer). Recall, Crescendo Corp (CCDO MK, NR) sold some parcels of land in Nusa Cemerlang Industrial Park to data centre users/operators at MYR120-125 psf in November last year. .... and price in doldrums !!! maybe floating shares are minimum mostly held by major shareholder?

greetings YTLpower playars... its 7:38am where i am now (12:38pm msia) and what a glorious morning to wake up to, and thx @dragon328 for the McQ report and more importantly the johor land sale analysis, AME was suspended yesterday for their announcement of the johor land sale, soon south johor will run out of land to sell (surprisingly AME shares went up at opening but cannot sustain - the bane of one off positive news no sustainability)... wonder if the kulai plot has already started to be developed.... i believe it shd have? cheers and peace....

@BursaVulture .... thanks for the feedback on reshuffling of lims at yinson and icon.... waaaah wish i had a dad like this .... can switch as CEO from one to another :-) peace

why did lim chern wooi resign from yinson? isnt he the 2nd son of the main shareholder?

Dear everyone.... I believe the discontent among many is because of teh lack of understanding of FPSO business and also how revenue recognition is undertaken in Yinson books. This is what happens when lay person assume all companies to be the same in nature, when they are not. In all truth, from an accounting perspective yinson is just like a property developer but with very very high risk. Their revenue is generated from from actual cash received, but based on percentage of contract completion and billings. Has anyone read the revenue recognition policy of Yinson?? Here is an extract "....A five-step process is applied before revenue can be recognised:
Step 1: Identify contracts with customers;
Step 2: Identify the separate performance obligations;
Step 3: Determine the transaction price of the contract;
Step 4: Allocate the transaction price to each of the separate performance obligations; and
Step 5: Recognise the revenue as each performance obligation is satisfied."
There you go...... so please understand that profits reported by yinson is not yet fully translated to cash.... it will be translated but at future date..... when project completed and REAL billing starts. This also clearly evidenced by teh negative operating cashflow from operations, meaning there is outlay for capital expenditure but not compensated against equal inflow from project completion actual billing. Im not sure if Im making sense or just confusing you..... bottom line is that risk is still high at yinson for now, as it has not cleared some basic hurdles. Those who are confident that the hurdles will all be cleared can invest now .... and hope once all hurdles cleared then can reap the benefits. So its up to you .... but you will need a longer holding power with nothing to recognise in near term.... does this fulfill your appetite? Ask yourself this question..... p/s : me personally i play with yinson WA, little down i buy then 2-3c up i sell.... 3c is like 8% margin, and then repeat the process, within weeks can make some coffee money loh :-) peace.... i followed OTB advice on buying into WA... long time more to expire

"Tech giants starting to treat Southeast Asia like next big thing", Bloomberg reports
By Olivia Poh & Suvashree Ghosh / Bloomberg 11 May 2024, 12:04 pm....... excerp "Hotspots include Johor Bahru, where Nvidia last year teamed up with a local utility for a plan to build a US$4.3 billion AI data centre park..." hmmmm .... wondering which utility co? hmm... wonder wonder :-) peace

@BursaVulture .... of course the Feds will lower the rates, only question of when, as otherwise US and most economies will go into a recession, which is what UK is on the brink off and thats why UK and EU will probably drop first.... we are looking at least 25 basis points reduction by this year end, followed by 100 basis points or so in 2025.... educated guesstimate... for yinson's sake the Brent better wake up from its 80 slumber and move towards 90 .... at 80 there is little incentive for FPSO owners

yinson is one of the companies that seems happy running its business with not a worry on its share price..... recently issued a very very expensive sukuk at 7.5% coupon.... while everyone nows in a year of less Feds will reduce the rates and we will be at the usual 3.5% ish rates, this like while running normal business instead of going to SMI loans ..... one opts for ah long.... same money yes.... but one charges high borrowing cost; but like said touch wood.... all yinson contract shoftfalls have been compensated for....BTW ang moh runs the core business at yinson.... just like at bumi armada

Let AlTugauw express his opinion... everyone is free to do so as long as not spamming, although on a personal level... I think he is in the wrong forum... such hatred ... on all sides does not belong in this forum

I like whispering words or wisdom from foxie... :) peace

so whats happening here.... heavy selling and equally heavy support at 4.96 .... can it sustain? contra players still ON?

thanks for the insights and feedback @dragon328 and @HumptyDumpty ..... solar, GE and green H2 has a long long way to go..... but good news is that all these are increasing the speculation of future earnings and little to do with 2024 or 2025 earnings... and expectation of future earnings is what drives share price.... happy for that... peace

i work in the energy sector, and and whatever you may know or have heard about solar and green energy are mostly not true. For example, solar energy is cheater than grid electricity? Is this true.... if we would all have converted our homes to solar panels and replaced Tenaga, but the fact is green energy is more expansive. Talking about solar we have CSP and PV, while PV is cheaper it does not have storage capability. What u produce needs to be consumed immediately.... and what happens at night?? You have to go back to the grid.... back to tenaga, and furthermore green energy si not continous and not stable, so you are back to grid again. Nevertheless, countries are promoting green energy not because of cost but because of being socially responsible and of course to prepare for times to come. In 100 years from now there will be no more coal and crude.... how then? Therefore.... anyone thinking green energy will fully power DC and AI DCs better think again. Im not saying it cannot help.... it can help reduce full dependency on grid.... thats all. End of the day.... this is all risks, and how do we manage it.

Affin Hwang TP comments on Tenaga "KUALA LUMPUR: Rising electricity demand from data centres (DC) projects and artificial intelligence (AI) will lift Tenaga Nasional Bhd's (TNB) long-term profitability. But they may have limited impact on TNB's immediate earnings, according to Affin Hwang Investment Bank. In Malaysia, TNB has received 74 supply applications from DC customers with total maximum demand in excess of 11,000MW (40.6 per cent of Peninsular Malaysia's installed capacity). "We do not expect all the projects to be implemented. TNB added that the group delivered electricity for nine DC projects with a total energy demand of up to 635MW in 2023," said Affin Hwang in a note today. For 2024, TNB expects to connect to nine DC projects with 700MW of total energy demand. In the long run, TNB sees potential maximum demand from DC in excess of 5,000MW by 2035 (18.5 per cent of Peninsular Malaysia's installed capacity). "We believe Malaysia will need to invest further in the power infrastructure and this should improve TNB's long-term profitability (via higher capex under the Income-Based Repayment framework)," it said.

Well, YTLP does not generate electricity in malaysia unfortunately (although they were the first IPP) but it does generate in Singapore, so im guessing the needs will be similar.... but not sure if powerseraya can increase capacity?

thx for the MA info @newuser999 ..... cheers

dont worry if exit can always return.... not like hotel california, you can chk in anytime u like but you cant never leave.... here can in out and out in anytime.... just be nice to each other, no name calling like small kids, and no insults pls.... peace

anything happening? hmmm

Thx newuser999

there is a huge buying parked at 1,215,200 shs fro 3.33 at 11:08am..... wonder who is this? for real... or just parked

someone shd do a 50MA against 10MA movement tech analysis...... to gauge the bottoming before deciding... any tech analyst here?

All the TPs are trustable..... but I have some serious doubt on the last one..... kinda sleeky and foxy :-) LOL.... peace

@dragon328 .... thanks for the other writeups on USEP and demand for powerseraya, these i guess are part parcel of ups and downs of business which even Tenaga is exposed to..... but I like the upside that YTLP has with regards to hydrogen ready CCGT, data centre, and RE export to Sing.... hope this will add flavor to price, as share price is always forward looking..... and I still recall ur comment on Tenaga..... im my calculation based on Tenaga PE ratio.... it will be making like 60B in profits hahahaha.... peace

@dragon328 .... duly noted on the 3.5 exch rate assumption. I am more interested in the near term 2024 and 2025 projections. As mart of my work, im monitoring the Fed movements and you are absolutely right. MYR is weak now, as our base rate is 3.0% while the Fed is 5.25% which explains the outflow of funds from Bursa. In fact, we are suppsoed to see at least 3 rate cuts in 2024, but March inflation shot up from Feb, and therefore now we are only forecasting a single rate cut sometime Q3 or Q4 of 0.25%. If this is true, then the 3.5 will hold if not get worse perhaps up to 4.0 like some have predicted. I foresee, YTLP holding its ground up to Q3 or so this year and thereon will be downturn. Everything that goes up ... surely has to come down. But if rate cuts come early, we can see MYR SGD to go down to 3.3 and perhaps even 3.0.... kapish... peace

thx for info dragon328, and my 2 question are (1) At what MYR SGD exch rate was this data translated at ? If they use 3.50 for the whole period then its super mis-leading, as I believe once teh Fed lower rates the exch will taper down to perhaps 3.0 and (2) Is the lower income in 2025 related to the absence of the hedging mechanism for the cost of coal - which they are enjoying in 2024? .... These are all downside risks that everyone she be aware of

guys..... i dont know how we can reach to this mud-slinging level among some of the participants??? this is just a simple forum for everyone to share their thoughts and views and exchange information and thats it.... its not a forum to force anyone to make decisions, and it seems like some have made bad decisions based on someone's incorrect call perhaps and due to that you have animosity and grudge and hatred and all.... this has to stop, as everyone makes decision based on their own analysis or if you want to follow others then its your call... there is no one else to be blamed.... i dont doubt there are some who are over optimistic... well thats just their right, you have to take the advice with a pinch of salt.... thats it kapish..... :-) peace

also ranhill...... up big time after so long, its days of utilities, and this is something u wanna hold in ur portfolio...... wonder why PBA lagging tho??

4.80 breached...... hmmmm

wow.... anyone knows why such one off huge volumes of ytl being transacted? each at 250,000 and some at 500,000 shs??? Institutional investors surely..... mix basket of buy and sells, ytl now in top 10 most active in volume.... :-) peace

Super resistance at 4.80 .... not just today, any technical analyst here can give view... Mr otb perhaps.... peace

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/707034 ..... microsoft buying land in Johor, this is the 3rd parcel

Pls dont forget there is a MS malaysia branch office that can do all the ground work..... K Raman is the managing director, can call and ask him :-) peace

tomorrow microsoft CEO visiting malaysia, with AI being the theme.... i just wonder what will happen if talks lead to data centre..... and ytlp is ever mentioned in the meeting.... well, it shd be... kolek :-) peace

good news is that there is buying power at the 3 highly traded prices : 4.59 - 55%, 4.60 - 65% and 4.61 - 55%; other prices its all below 50% meaning net sell..... :-) peace

yes healthy correction indeed.... weed out the contra players (sorry no offense to c-players), but with T+3, since friday last week...... real selling will be tomorrow right ? wednesday before 12noon? since tom public holiday...... so postpone to thurs 02 May 12 noon? m i kolek?

ah great thx teknikal.... so I can hold yah

baldy hell..... right after i buy it goes down :-( hahahaha.... so thinly traded

wow best qtr results thus far.... breached 6 figure profit for the first time in its history.... time to buy

Looks like AI data centre boom.... is gonna cause a spike in power usage, and on a double whammy note.... or tripple whammy, YTLP is involved in all 3 .... AI, data centre and power generation.... wonder whens the TNB YTLP shared power generation sale to Sing is gonna happen....
https://www.theborneopost.com/2021/10/27/any-earnings-from-electricity-sale-to-singapore-will-be-minimal-for-ytl-power/

amazing run in the past 9 working days, from 3.90 on Apr 17 to 4.78 today Apr 29..... thats 22% increase in 9 working days, the last this happened was back in Jan 02 from 2.57 to 3.44 on Jan 08.... massive 34% increase in 5 working days. Last round after hitting 3.44 i guess contra players weeding brought it down to 3.35 and then no turning back.... wonder how much retreat will happen this round? @OTB and @dragon328 any insights? Any chance of liquidating and re-accumulating.... peace ;-)

yes yes many many thanks to dragon328.... on the many indepth analysis on ytlp, utmost gratitude to you thank you sir

Thx OTB for the fibonacci analysis... but that's pretty high 5.15 ....its high but thx again cheers 🍻

mr OTB pls help advice next step..... 4.27 resistance breached..... :-) peace