Posted by speakup > 2015-06-17 10:44 | Report Abuse

Sentiment Analysis?

Posted by kiasutrader1 > 2015-06-17 10:49 | Report Abuse

That is another big area where emotional trading has caused many to fail. May write about it another time, including why TIPS may or may not make you rich...

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2015-06-17 20:26 | Report Abuse

Dear Respected kiasutrader1,

Thanks for your kind sharing! What an amazing article! SALUTE and RESPECT!

This afternoon I already bookmarked this article and set it as my No.1 must-do task before I end my day. While having my dinner I read through your article. Slowly go through your article, word by word, sentence by sentence for three round just to make sure I don't miss out any important notes.

"while most of the forum users busy with the discussion of should TA or FA comes first, which is the best analysis tool, how to earn big from TA, FA or FTA etc you presented to us the crucial part of the [FA & TA application skills]. Personally, I like very much your article because you tell us how practical and impractical the tools are. Somehow, I do not get much of the Entrepreneurship part(hope you can explain more in future).

Good that you share with us about the psychological responses of share "players" from your observation.

I am sure I will closely waiting for your next article. Sorry if I could request to publish
1) What should we do when TA contradict with the FA findings for short term analysis since more n more CLOUD BUSINESS or E-Comm counters to be listed in stock exchange (problem here is TA ask to attack while FA ask to wait)
2) What is the ROBUST way to read our market when KLCI(30 components) is not usable to reflect the entire market movement
3) The missing part of the linkage of FINANCIAL FIGURES and ECONOMICAL CHANGE because it would be great to learn from you how to integrate these two scopes since Economy will influential the Finance figures after certain period. Hope your experience and MBA thoughts can enlighten us
4) If given a chance to raise my request, I will continue to write:::

Indeed this is the best "Agree to disagree" article from i3 till present(at least it sounds for me).

No other word but it serves the mind-opener for newbie like me.

Again, thanks for your wonderful time to give us a free public lecture.

Warmest regards,
your follower duit

Posted by SpeedyBoy > 2015-06-17 20:29 | Report Abuse

Informative and enlightening !

Posted by kiasutrader1 > 2015-06-18 00:00 | Report Abuse

Dear duitKWSPkita

Let me go thru your comments one by one :

1) What should we do when TA contradict with the FA findings for short term analysis since more n more CLOUD BUSINESS or E-Comm counters to be listed in stock exchange (problem here is TA ask to attack while FA ask to wait)

COMMENT
This is common - it depends on what stocks you are looking at and what is your investment time frame. I personally have invested in penny stocks when my interpretation of TA on the charts show that entry is possible as the probability of the share going up is higher than the share coming down. Note that this is mainly for short term profits. In this respect, there is hardly any FA involved - eg of shares I have personally invested in are Pasukhas, Asia Bio & KTB where the FA or business process of the companies will not have qualified as an investment. Of course, I may get it wrong and that is when I have to quickly get out admitting I am wrong.

2) What is the ROBUST way to read our market when KLCI(30 components) is not usable to reflect the entire market movement.

COMMENT
The KLCI is just a guide to the health of the market . What is missing which is much spoken about is the Breadth of the market – ie how many stocks up, down and sideways and volume. That is more crucial. The KLCI does in a way influence the sentiment but if you know the companies that you have invested in after applying the 3 techniques mentioned, will you be worried? You will look at it as an opportunity to BUY not SELL the stocks you have in your hand.

But if you are only having speculative counters, then you will be extremely worried indeed. You just have to be careful of your own stocks. I have said this before to my Kiasutrader community (www.kiasutrader.com), not to be worried about the market, but be worried about the shares you own - are they solid, can they withstand the sudden loss of confidence in the market? Can they bounce back? Normally those stocks with good fundamentals can bounce back, not the speculative ones.

Posted by kiasutrader1 > 2015-06-18 00:02 | Report Abuse

Continuation

3) The missing part of the linkage of FINANCIAL FIGURES and ECONOMICAL CHANGE because it would be great to learn from you how to integrate these two scopes since Economy will influential the Finance figures after certain period. Hope your experience and MBA thoughts can enlighten us

COMMENT
The Economy is the overall picture. If the economy is bad, how can companies that are affected by the consumers’ change of spending habits do well? Obviously their financials will be affected. If they were doing well over the last 5 years, it does not mean that such stocks will do well in future. Hence it is time to look into selling these stocks.

Oil & Gas counters are being affected by the turmoil in the global markets but their 5 year EPS and 5 year revenue growth rates may show scintillating results. Will you go and blindly buy them, thinking that the norm will continue forever?

Just some thoughts here :

Consumers who are wage earners will not be able to spend luxuriously. Hence one must ask, what kind of goods will they buy? Will they buy more gold ornaments, will they go for expensive holidays? What counters will be able to withstand the economic downturn?

With these questions in mind, we go and look at the market. I will say that most likely those that have business that are, recession proof will continue to do well. They are not exciting businesses but ones that will not do badly even if the Ringgit go to RM6 to USD1. Example : One of the most recession proof business is the bereavement business (Funeral). Unfortunately, if I am not wrong that company had been delisted as the founders found that the local market did not appreciate the company’s value.

Also companies that sell basic food products that are needed like Nestle. in Indonesia Nestle sell coffee saches and food packages like maggie mee individually so that the poor folks there buy just for the day's meal, not like here where we buy enough to stock up for 1 month! The profit of each packet is so high that it is a sin!

Medical service providers is another good example. As the Government hospitals get more and more crowded and people in general have health or medical insurance, they will go to the private hospitals. So I believe that private hospital business will continue to grow.

Motor vehicles - in Malaysia, without a car, you are in trouble. Most of the population will be able to afford a Myvi which is perceived to be better than a Proton. So that is another area to look at. Of course there are also challenges in this industry that one must be aware of.

These are just some areas. Note that we are not living in a coconut shell, business is global and also there are loads of foreign investors in our market. If they leave, what counters will be affected? Air Asia is a good example. If you do some homework, you will know which companies have a lot of foreign shareholding and you will want to avoid those companies.

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-18 00:08 | Report Abuse

Why is GA?

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-18 00:09 | Report Abuse

Goreng analysis?

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-18 00:09 | Report Abuse

Gasak analyis

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-18 00:10 | Report Abuse

Group analysis?

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-18 00:11 | Report Abuse

Gosok analysis? Like Aladdin lamp? Gosok n wish?

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-18 00:12 | Report Abuse

Guru analysis?

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-18 00:13 | Report Abuse

Gay analysis?

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-18 00:13 | Report Abuse

Genting analysis?

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-18 00:14 | Report Abuse

Aiyo tired of guessing ...got answer or not?
Use SA better....Sunkist analysis

Posted by SumuaOK > 2015-06-18 00:23 | Report Abuse

The two FA & TA have go hand in hand. See Airasia if based on FA alone? TA already shows danger sell sign when it dropped below 50MA and series of negative candles. Same as IFCA.

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2015-06-18 00:27 | Report Abuse

Kiasutrader1: Thank you very much for reply. Noted n agreed with your remarks...

Sunkist118: GA is Gut Analysis mean how big it gut to bet like no tomorrow.

Ops ti Mia bro: I prefer Psychology Analysis, love 股市厚黑学。。。you eat me, I eat you. I believe that market is a place for smart person to con fool money. We can't deny it only thing is we open mouth and eat. Those talk very big one TALK ONLY MA. How many in this forum got chance to handle billion project or fund or business. Mostly 骗神骗鬼吗。。。。

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-18 00:34 | Report Abuse

There is one called optimickeymouse

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-18 00:35 | Report Abuse

And he talks like an elephant

Walk like a dog

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-18 00:35 | Report Abuse

Punt stocks like a sochai

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2015-06-18 00:43 | Report Abuse

See Icon bro. Lu Kasi cucuk Ops undertaker.

Later he can't sleep n dig out all old 往事 then how? Cham Liao lo... No need sleep Liao lo.....

He has great memory to link up everything. Envy his memory lo. Almost time, people and location all ingat lo. Really a genius.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-18 00:47 | Report Abuse

Oh my god optimouse is correct, Duit lets throw a big party for your 10,000 posts !!!!

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-18 00:49 | Report Abuse

fortunebullz, Duit is going to hit 10,000th posts soon !!! Oh my god, Duit don't move !!! You must say something meaningful that commensurate with your 10,000th posts !!!

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2015-06-18 00:50 | Report Abuse

Get mad Liao... My IT guy resigned and join IFCACCC for GST project. So no one resolve my server... Stuck there like proton saga car metre.

But sometimes when KLCI drop my total posts also drop n when KLCI up it reacts àccordingly. Really dunno how to fix this problem... I am sad when everyone laugh at me on my overdue problem.

Sadddd

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-18 00:52 | Report Abuse

One more post and it will hit 10,000 th !!!!

Come on Duit u can do it !!!

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-18 00:55 | Report Abuse

LOL so potong steam

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2015-06-18 00:59 | Report Abuse

Icon, fortune n ops...

I hav tried my best. But IT really not my department I dunno how to fix the IT algorithm problem.

Hope I can get nice IT gal to help me. I also wanna hit 10k ma when possible.... 10k club got privilege, can open another 5 new accounts... Good also...

Hei opssss. Lu Ada excel control all macam macm account ka? Kalau no excel I BET RM5 satu hari Lu sendiri lupa user n password.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-18 00:59 | Report Abuse

See ? Fortunebullz I always say you should stop attaching "my bro" to his name

He is not your "bro"

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-18 01:02 | Report Abuse

Good night Duit optimouse fortunebullz

Love you all

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-18 08:20 | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo

Posted by Sunkist118 > 2015-06-18 08:35 | Report Abuse

Mine one only rm1k kancil hor compared to lambogini hor. Kancil slow so I folloo lambo better, I use care plus help because hor my kancil like Mickey mouse hor on steroid, body big big engine small small. Now hor after using care plus my kancil hor cannot move d body big big only. So learn hor care plus help not for all car.

Posted by Optimusprimier > Jun 18, 2015 01:01 AM | Report Abuse

gua pakai supercomputer la, not your ordinary type of laptop.

gua punya computer harga serupa lambogini la.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2015-06-18 08:49 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-18 08:54 | Report Abuse

We all here for money

Optimouse is here to fish for fame and respect

Stupid

Posted by murali > 2015-06-18 08:56 | Report Abuse

Good or no good, I think OTB's bank balance has increased by many millions RM these 3 years...could be more than what he earned in the past many years...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-18 08:57 | Report Abuse

Optimus bankrupt

Posted by goreng_goreng > 2015-06-18 09:07 | Report Abuse

right mr OTB. lets share knowledge, compassion and love.. I believe articles like this really help me and my fellow newbie. thank you for the hard work.

Posted by kiasutrader1 > 2015-06-18 09:57 | Report Abuse

Agreed with Mr OTB that a person who is good will not tell lies and attack people to say he is very good. That is a universal principle that I subscribe to.

But just wondering the relevance of this statement to what I posted here. Kindly explain.

After all, I did say that I created this forum for intelligent discussion and any disagreement to what I proffer here is most welcomed as no one stops learning and I have said that I agree to disagree.

Posted by pisanggoreng > 2015-06-18 11:43 | Report Abuse

macam betul tapi tak berapa faham, talk like expert but nothing new to learn

why nowadays, people like to beat around the bush, why they just can not put the fact across directly, yet there are still many say good writing

please lah...

please speak like LKY, do not make simple fact difficult, what you want is everybody can understand what you want to say

OTB is good, at least we understand what he says , what he wants

KC also good , we understand his theory

kiasutrader, please improve your presentation.

sorry to have been spoken that frankly here

Posted by kiasutrader1 > 2015-06-18 11:51 | Report Abuse

pisanggoreng,Thank you for your frank comments. I have no problem with your comments. If you have nothing new to learn, it is ok with me.

Posted by pisanggoreng > 2015-06-18 13:22 | Report Abuse

I am doing a test, how it is true , when one said he can accept the difference.

I am glad to hear you are ok.

Posted by kiasutrader1 > 2015-06-18 14:04 | Report Abuse

Life is short, do not be uptight when someone disagree with you. They have reasons best known to them and if anyone disagree with others, that person should be prepared to give good logical reasons for the view. That shows you are a matured, thinking person who can give good logical reasons behind your views.

We all learn together and get better, that should be the aim of life but if you get emotional over what others say about your views, then you should go and learn to Agree to Disagree.

Posted by Dumno > 2015-06-18 14:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Dumno > 2015-06-18 14:19 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by NOBY > 2015-06-18 14:26 | Report Abuse

kiasutrader,

1. Using TA to buy speculative stocks.... how successful is this approach. Can you show consistent above average performance every year for stocks in this bucket ? I am curious.

2. Why not write up about some stocks that meet your criteria in terms of TA,FA and Entrepreneurial to share in i3. At least we can see some examples of your criteria put in practice and how they perform over time.

Thanks for the article.

Posted by Dumno > 2015-06-18 14:28 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ks55 > 2015-06-18 14:50 | Report Abuse

kiasutrader1 -- a very good write up and and a even better comments from a humble, learned investor.
I am fully agree with what you have put up. Good work.
Really appreaciate your effort and a big TQ.
I seldom praise people, only you and kcchongnz earn my respect.........

Posted by kiasutrader1 > 2015-06-18 15:56 | Report Abuse

NOBY,

Thank you for your comment no. 2

I said above : "Also do we use our experiences to invest?"

Last year I was admitted into a KPJ hospital on 25 March 2014, discharged on 26 Mar 2015 as I was quite sick on 25 March 2014. I had to wait 3 hours or more in the emergency room before I was allocated a room because they told me the hospital is full and I have to wait as someone was checking out later that day. As I waited in the Emergency room, I saw that it was full and people did not even have a place to sit.

This shows that it is a very good business that is "printing" money for its Investors. A good businessman will want to get into such a business.

I have never invested in KPJ shares before and later after I was discharged, I had a look at the KPJ chart and was amazed that it was falling like a "Waterfall". I was wondering why, is it because they have some very bad results because of bad management or did something crazy?

On checking, I found out that Analysts were writing bad things about them because they took a lot of loans to build new hospitals in Rawang, etc, causing the usual financial guidelines to appear to be bad. This I cannot understand why a company that is taking loans to grow its business is treated as a bad thing. If it took loans to buy luxurious cars and villas, I can understand. If the financials are bad, then it should only be temporary.

If one check the charts, one can see that a base was formed at the RM2.99/3.00 level between 26/3 to 8/4 and volume increased from 01 April 2014 with the share price, not able to fall further. This gave a good signal that strong support is present and the share "should" rise from there. From 9/4 onwards the share rose and never looked back, reaching RM4.42 on 8 June 15.

That is using your 5 senses to invest together with understanding TA. FA is important but at that stage I felt that the growth prospects of the company is far more evident than short term financial numbers.

Posted by NOBY > 2015-06-18 17:42 | Report Abuse

Thanks. Looks like you are more of a scuttle butt type of investor like Phil Fisher. Yes, sometimes the best time to buy is when the company is undergoing a rough patch or investors sell down due to some one-off negative event.

Posted by kiasutrader1 > 2015-06-18 17:51 | Report Abuse

NOBY,

Sometimes, there are opportunities I buy when I see the stock cannot go down anymore. I am more of a range trader between support and resistance as I am "kiasu". Currently the market is sideways and I am looking for opportunities like that but now because of the headwinds of our economy and USD interest rate normalisation, I got to be more careful as support may not hold

Posted by kiasutrader1 > 2015-06-18 18:20 | Report Abuse

Apologies, my KPJ check out date was 26 Mar 2015 not 2015..1 day stay not 1 year!