Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-07 18:41 | Report Abuse

don't be funny icon....

what inventory gain $ 400m....accounting policy is lower of cost and net realisable value......


and what warren bufett wannabe values a company based on the results of an extraordinary year of upgradings?

business risks....sure got business risk......

icon

stock market about businessmen/risk takers vs professors
bulls vs bears
positive vs negative people

and of course fast actions vs arm chair critics.

pivotal moment vs frozen soldiers

and of course....buying for 3 years with 300% gain potential vs money in FD..........

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-04-07 18:54 | Report Abuse

I doubt in 3 years can gain 300%

Have you read why Royal Dutch Shell sold Shell away?

Their reasons are very clear & also a warning

Main reasons were given were

1) PD Shell has limited capacity. So there is geographical constrain

2) Need for refurbishing is costly

3) And further expansion is impossible as Malaysian Vision Valley will reach PD

4) Conversion to Euro 4 & Euro 5 too costly

5) Shell PD cannot compete with Up coming Pengerang RAPID. RAPID is getting cheaper Feedstock from Saudi.

6) Malaysia with Geely will spearhead into Electric Car usage from petrol or diesel. I think the small Malaysia Population of 33 millions do not warrant Shell as a viable player longer term.
So they chose to sell it away to Hengyuan - as future to ROYAL DUTCH SHELL does not look promising.

SO YOU GUYS BETTER WAKE UP NOW!!!

So 3 years down the road Hengyuan might face Huge Obstacles instead as Petronas RAPID will be up and running!!!

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-04-07 18:59 | Report Abuse

PETRONAS RAPID WILL POSE BIG PROBLEM FOR HENGYUAN AS TIME PROGRESSES!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pengerang_Integrated_Petroleum_Complex

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDy6XBvgWCw

Posted by sunnylee > 2018-04-07 19:02 | Report Abuse

I totally agreed with Calvin.Your comment is spot on.I He had lost his credibility the day he SUDDENLY bought HYR ju

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-07 19:37 | Report Abuse

what is this inventory gain $400 million business icon? the accounting policy is lower of cost and net realisable value....

and if inventory loss....well....not every year is inventory loss year.....

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-04-07 19:42 | Report Abuse

When pengerang start operation, refined products wil flood the market.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-07 19:43 | Report Abuse

the refining margin is a complex between cost and net realized selling prices....and the good thing both Petron and Hengyuan is that since Jan, we have changed to weekly re pricing.....that has certainly stablised the PL of both Hengyuan and Petron.

and looks like the selling prices formula has improved since last year.....maybe that is the deal struck with the government before the takeover from Shell.

Posted by hollandking > 2018-04-07 19:50 | Report Abuse

i always read everyone's comments in i3 and i learn things, and I'm glad to see everyone contributing, whether it be big or small. As for the superinvestor, we know what it is about, his latest actions convinced me what kind of person he is. Is undeniable. Nice pictures about the farm produces, calvin. Reminded me that my researches on plants could be very valuable although still in research stage. Is kind of weird, I don't know i have some very weird experience, is like HE is telling me to continue, my researches met with stumbling blocks, but 1-2 days ago, i suddenly saw a show, and it linked with something which i had talked about and where my research should extend to. So i got new ideas, but at same time, that movie or the message is showing as though I'm the person,what i can see is, it showing don't give up,

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-07 20:18 | Report Abuse

Business risk of Hy is volatility of gross margins....

with $ 40 revenue per share p.a......the eps of HY is certainly very volatile...any slight change in gross margins translates to disproportionate changes in eps....that is a fact of life for refineries.....

In the life cycle of a share such as HY.....kyy got the money and the holding power to see the next up cycle and enjoy a 300% return.....can or not?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-07 20:22 | Report Abuse

y trulyinvest > Apr 7, 2018 07:42 PM | Report Abuse

When pengerang start operation, refined products wil flood the market.
================

that is a business risk and maybe a business solution but got nothing to do with icon's writings.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-07 20:28 | Report Abuse

icon

stock market about businessmen/risk takers vs professors
bulls vs bears
positive vs negative people

and of course fast actions vs arm chair critics.

pivotal moment vs frozen soldiers

and of course....buying for 3 years with 300% gain potential vs money in FD..........

Posted by ahdi2020 > 2018-04-07 20:32 | Report Abuse

i still remember when KYY sell hengyuan his article still got mention, LOW PE DOES NOT MEAN ANYTHINGS, and now buy Back because of LOW PE??What a talk and do different by KYY.. GOOD JOB OLD MAN..TWO SNAKE HEAD

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-07 20:36 | Report Abuse

hdi2020 > Apr 7, 2018 08:32 PM | Report Abuse

i still remember when KYY sell hengyuan his article still got mention, LOW PE DOES NOT MEAN ANYTHINGS, and now buy Back because of LOW PE??What a talk and do different by KYY.. GOOD JOB OLD MAN..TWO SNAKE HEAD
==============

ahdi...stock market ability to reflect is not a sin.....maybe it is a necessity for success.

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-04-07 20:43 | Report Abuse

Be a two head snake if u want to be successful

Posted by alivetoinvest > 2018-04-07 21:09 | Report Abuse

No integrity this Kyy. Well said Calvin.
No difference from the corrupt...

Posted by ahdi2020 > 2018-04-07 21:11 | Report Abuse

if do something make u success by those way, then must prepare to face most of all negative comment!! and do not try to Defend..得了便宜还卖乖

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-07 21:11 | Report Abuse

alivetoinvest > Apr 7, 2018 09:09 PM | Report Abuse

No integrity this Kyy. Well said Calvin.
No difference from the corrupt...
==============

people buy share and write about his reasons for being ...you can call people names......

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-07 21:13 | Report Abuse

CharlesT > Apr 7, 2018 08:43 PM | Report Abuse

Be a two head snake if u want to be successful
====================

its actually called flexible and ability to reflect

Posted by Invest_168 > 2018-04-07 21:13 | Report Abuse

With billion of ringgit of wealth, the oldman can easily manipulate the share price. Furthermore, with his rapid promotion, the price was shoot up last 2 days with gain ~30%. Beware, he can start to dump his shares to you anytime.

Posted by Invest_168 > 2018-04-07 21:20 | Report Abuse

All the people know the fox story....for sure the fox is no integrity at all. But, what we can do....the fox is so rich and so smart until can MANIPULATE the share price, especially when the price drop at very low level.

Posted by soojinhou > 2018-04-07 21:23 | Report Abuse

The super lalang will change his mind to support BN tomorrow. Hahaha.

Posted by sunnylee > 2018-04-07 21:50 | Report Abuse

I believe in karma.What goes around comes around.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-07 22:14 | Report Abuse

why the non stop criticism just because someone makes some money?

Posted by hollandking > 2018-04-07 22:18 | Report Abuse

calvin had oredi written wht the issue is about. If you take the time to read it, u will see is a big prb, is about credibility

Posted by hollandking > 2018-04-07 22:19 | Report Abuse

someone burnt reputation down, guess reputation is not important, guess the title of rogue trader more valuable.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-08 00:03 | Report Abuse

hollandking someone burnt reputation down, guess reputation is not important, guess the title of rogue trader more valuable.
=============

and I thought make money is the reason why people buy shares.......

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2018-04-08 00:17 | Report Abuse

Well, KYY also bought Xingquan few days before suspension.

Dia punya suka lah.

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2018-04-08 00:29 | Report Abuse

As for this Hengyuan, for the moment it's ok because of the KYY and OTB guy buying. Till end of the year when enough bad news came out, 死得人多！

But this is the nature of the market, 大魚坑小魚！That's why only few percent can last long in stock market.

Posted by PureBULL . > 2018-04-08 04:19 | Report Abuse

Dear all players in i3,

i. KEY is we r all here to make money in stocks, hopefully the mega flying type all the time.
ii. That i3 members will have 1st mover advantage to enter great winning stocks at good price earlier than the general market players out there.

For above to happen, we all need

GOOD LUCK = OPPORTUNITY + ACTION.TAKEN

Who can show N provide the OPPORTUNITY ?
1st, Market Movers like uncle KYY, the only 1 in KLSE, n willing to talk to you now directly.
2nd, a few GOOD sifu here in i3, some of them v good but not famous, the infamous PAID ones might not be good at calling great winning stocks.

Fact: Nobody's Perfect only HE.
So ignore everybody's -ve, keep focusing on the +ve that could lead us to all great winning stocks in KLSE at Right Timing.
Like in BIZ, Please master our SELLING SKILLS, never overly confident n greedy.

There r so few GREAT STOCKS available this season.
Do not miss the limited OPPORTUNITIES.
N if the OPPORTUNITY comes, it comes fairly at the same time to Everybody in i3,
DO TAKE ACTION to receive your GOOD LUCK !

Importantly, world Best mental psychologist Buddha said;
" WHAT U PRACTISE IS WHAT U BECOME "

U r cool n professional, nice n easy to deal with, u r from day 1.
U r good in making MONEY in stocks, u r from somewhere special.
U r fast angry n quarrelsome, u r the expert in this from day 1.

Posted by honeycomb > 2018-04-08 05:07 | Report Abuse

KYY is .willing to share his investment strategy n how he makes his money. When he buys a share, he always says his article is for educational purpose and is not to ask anyone to buy or sell the share.
If you choose to buy or sell, you do it at your own risk.
It is the nature of the share trading market to see most participants loss more than they make. It is also in the nature of trading shares to see what goes up will eventually comes down at some point. Only a small percentage makes money. If you look at the HY episode, you had the chance to make money right up to the price of RM18. But if you choose to wait until the price went below your breakeven price(largely because of greed), it is your own doing and not the fault of any other
person. It is really unfair to blame anybody else!

Posted by honeycomb > 2018-04-08 05:22 | Report Abuse

Do your own analysis(TA, FA, Kramat-based, Fengsui-based, karma-based or towkong-bssed or rumour-based or whatever), it is your own money and your own decision!

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2018-04-08 09:41 | Report Abuse

PureBULL, some other people's purpose is not to make money in the stock market. They come for excitement, atonement, abuse, learning, or to get rid of boredom etc.

KYY is a good example. He do not need the money. He created but often not following his own "Golden Rule". EPS of HY is halved, by Q3 QR it will be "-", and yet he still buys.

Posted by VincentTang > 2018-04-08 09:43 | Report Abuse

I totally agreed with Calvin. When HengYuan RM17, KYY keep promote to buy HengYuan but in fact he is the big seller behind and cause HengYuan share price crashed to below RM7. KYY is big liar. Don't get con and bite by this alligator.

Posted by teoct > 2018-04-08 09:52 | Report Abuse

Mr Calvintaneng, I have the following comments:
a) Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) when they made the decision to sell PD refinery, the oil refining industry was in a doldrums (too many new refineries coming on-stream).
b) And RDS had to raise money to fund the takeover of their acquisition of British Gas. RDS not only sold PD, they also sold other refineries around the world during that period of time.
c) As recently as last year, RDS came out to say the oil refinery industry is the best with the change in the crack spread and the tightening of supply (i.e. fewer/no new refineries coming on-stream)
d) indeed your point on geographical constrain is very relevant.
e) costly refurbishment - well it was RDS excuse to make the sale more palpable for their shareholders. All refineries face the same refurbishment cost as oil refineries is an international business and cost anywhere in the world (yes including China) is more or less the same, save for manpower cost.
f) RAPID killing other refineries in Malaysia - currently up to 2025, the supply of refined oil products (RON 95, 97 / diesel, etc) is very tight given the increasing demand in Asia. The only thing that can de-rail this demand is a great recession or oil price suddenly leap above USD 80 a barrel. This (tightness) is also shown by Shell having an agreement to take all the products from Hengyuan for 10 years.
g) Of course, RAPID cost of production would be lower than HY as the boiler-plate of RAPID is 300,000 barrels per day vs 150,000 bpd for HY.
h) HY also able to refined crude from middle east. So input cost (feed-stock) for both is about the same.
i) About EV (electric vehicles), please!!! The introduction of EV will not hurt the refining business immediately. As if overnight all vehicles become electric. Yes in about 10 to 15 years time there will be a sizable of EV but till then, refineries should make some money going forward.

Have a good weekend all.

Posted by teoct > 2018-04-08 10:02 | Report Abuse

Also during that period (2011 to 2014), the oil price was averaging USD 100+ per barrel (Of course after mid 2014 it plunged). Demand for oil refined products was being destroyed. So demand was reducing while capacity to refined increased - margin gone. Most, if not all refineries (in the world) lost money.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-04-08 10:19 | Report Abuse

teoct,

Thumbs up to your comments!

Hi guys!

This teoct input is impartial. And i think it is logical and help us to see from different viewpoints.

Yes. EV is still long way off. But Warren Buffet bought into BDY from Value Partners because he SEE ahead in time that EV will replace gasoline powered cars in future.

Now in Spore. The Govt is offering Rm10,000 rebate for all old motorbikes if they will scrap it faster.

The future is only in downstream refining for chemicals which Hengyuan face geographical land constrain in PD as gasoline usage might be phased out when all will only use electricity.

See how it was.

Man started with firewood light at night

Then wooden torches made from tree resin.

Then to oil lamps made from animal oil like whale fat.

Then to kerosen hurrican types of lamps.

Finally to electric lights

Ships were powered by human energy in viking time. With the invention of sail they were powered by wind. Later by wood, coal and steam engine and finally powered by oil. In future it might be powered by solar or electric.

So was carriages powered by horses. Then cars were invented and powered by steam engine. And then powered by oil. The next step will be the power from electricity or solar.

Now let me relate a true story. My Sis in Law works as a Senoir Staff Nurse in Perth. She said one man why rode a bicycle daily for work from outskirt into Perth died of lung cancer.

He wanted to stay healthy by not driving but riding a bicycle in stead. But that killed him because the polluted air from car exhaust caused him lung cancer.

Many Doctors, Govts are aware of this. That is why as car population continues to grow they will move to euro 4, euro 5 and EV finally.

Even Saudi Aramco is fully aware of this and they are moving downstream production of chemicals by investing heavily all over the world and pumped Rm28 Billions into Pengerang's RAPID

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-04-08 10:32 | Report Abuse

Yes teoct is correct!

There is a corelation between mineral oil, vegetable oil, rubber, wood and all other stuff.

Crude oil is made into thousands of products and byproducts.

If oil is USD100 man will avoid synthetic rubber made from oil and switch to natural rubber. Gloves, tyres, plastic furniture etc etc...So refineries will suffer due to high cost of production and lower demand.

Now with shale oil hammering crude oil the future for downstream refinery should be good as feedstock will be priced reasonably.

But Saudi wants to list the USD2 TRILLION ARAMCO IPO. So they get Opec and even Russia to cut back production to support oil prices.

This is only temporary as market forces will still finally prevail.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-04-08 10:33 | Report Abuse

Remember today being Sunday go visit www.chick.com

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-04-08 10:43 | Report Abuse

Logic tells all that eventually petrol cars will be phased out and replaced by EV or Solar

Petrol/diesel cars exhaust pipe spews out deadly carbon monoxide all the time. Because it is diluted by invisible air the effect on our health is unnoticeable.

But they are people who wind up all their car windows, join a plastic hose to the exhaust pipe leading to the car compartment and commit suicide by killing themselves.

In a very congested city like Kl bkt bintang people's lives are shorten without their knowing. All the deadly invisible carbon monoxide goes into their blood stream and do untold damage to their heart and brain.

Better moving to Wonderful Iskandar

Posted by Blue Laser > 2018-04-08 18:30 | Report Abuse

This time Calvin has got the ancient one by his short and curlies. Koon is caught red handed lying and twisting his words on Heng Yuan within a few short weeks. Maybe he thinks investors are inherently greedy, have very short memories or stupid for he has got away with clever deception for years. Anyone buying into Heng Yuan now must have eyes wide open to play casino games.

Posted by sunnylee > 2018-04-08 20:33 | Report Abuse

Kudos Calvin for exposing his forked tongue.I think that he will be stucked in Jaks and Sendai for very long timeHe will not sell for pride.He will instead try to make profir from HY and other counters to cover his margin cost.Beware.

Posted by OPMS > 2018-04-08 20:46 | Report Abuse

KYY style is he silently buying the stock he like few months before he promote. Obviously when he promote a stock, thats the moment when he will be selling soon.All ikan bilis, please horn your skill & senses !

Posted by nightfury3 > 2018-04-08 21:20 | Report Abuse

Im new here and i register as i3 member just bcz of after read kyy article and what he wrote against calvin. I totally agree with calvin. Just like couple days ago he wrote an article to tell ppl to sell HY but at the very next day another article pop out and convincing ppl to buy HY. Still dont understand why there are still so many followers believing in him and contribute to push up the price for the stock he owning.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-04-08 21:25 | Report Abuse

Posted by nightfury3 > Apr 8, 2018 09:20 PM | Report Abuse

Im new here and i register as i3 member just bcz of after read kyy article and what he wrote against calvin. I totally agree with calvin. Just like couple days ago he wrote an article to tell ppl to sell HY but at the very next day another article pop out and convincing ppl to buy HY. Still dont understand why there are still so many followers believing in him and contribute to push up the price for the stock he owning.

WELCOME TO i3 FORUM

FIRST OF ALL GO BUY THESE BOOKS

THE INTELLLIGENT INVESTOR By Benjamin Graham

ONE UP ONE WALL STRET
BEATING THE STEET
Last 2 by Peter Lynch

THERE ARE 2 GROUPS IN i3 FORUM

ONE IS TRUE INVESTORS

ANOTHER GROUP IS TRADERS/CONTRA PLAYERS.

BOTH ARE OK

BUT ONE GROUP IS THE MOST DANGEROUS

THEY ARE SORCHAI CATCHERS OR SYNDICATES

AND YET SOME i3 FORUMERS KNOWING THE DANGER STILL WANT TO PLAY THERE

THERE?

THERE ARE PREDATORS VERSUS PREY

See

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6M_XgiONoo

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-04-08 21:44 | Report Abuse

halite, if you believe what you just posted ,,,then just do it...it is still not too late.....

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-04-08 22:06 | Report Abuse

LAST TIME THE SHARK OPERATED IN IFCA

All these 57 clicked likes

57 people like this in IFCA Forum.
People who like thisXTing Choryam, Bryan Lee, Jaafar Hamid, Meng Fatt Lee, Rachel Yi Xin, MilkyTrich Chia, Benzi Gwee, Hussain Daud, Eli Chow, KaYen Ooi, Billy See, Jack Ong, aidilwm2, alex35, anthonylow, AyamTua, Blackpanther, blchew1973, CANI9906, catcat, chiakgs168, Count3, crazy127, ericio, Fosterrrr, Garyyap, geekwai, georgeck, godbless88, hepitrade, huntchua, jasgrafix, jeand, jennifer88, keng88, kentg03, lctay81, lemontea, Littlefield, lt54, melvinha4134, motomoto, Orionpacific, ozzie75, pan91282, pjtang13, questzmak, shidayea, shtan88, smallfry8, sstan8010, SYEE, Ting32, TwinkleStar19, Uz2015,
kiman 70, wubwub

TODAY MORE THAN 95% HAVE LOST EVERYTHING AND LEFT POSTING IN i3 FORUM

IFCA CRASHED FROM Rm1.87 3 Times Limit Down to below 30 Sen & Wiped All Sorchai, ikan bilis, sotong & water fish away!!

IFCA then rebounded above 40 sen & caught 2nd group of water fish before crashing back to 26 sen now!!

Let's see these ones holding Hengyuan

20 people like this hengyuan.
People who like thisXNelly Dianne, Mosiong Wong, Chen Lip Fo, Samuel Chan, b8ewm, bfmtechnology, Ckk2266, Coconur, Virus t, Inetykm, investor77, iversonkb, jimtktan, Kkang, MCC8, myongcc5, neonwong, O3DURIAN, phangady, pitbull

SEE HOW MANY WILL STILL LAST AND FOR HOW LONG IN i3 FORUM?

Posted by Benjamin Poh > 2018-04-09 20:13 | Report Abuse

Business valuation is an art more than a science. It may be tempted to look at the historical balance sheets, P/Ls and cash flow statements for clues on the current valuation of a company. If you are accounting savvy, analysis of balance sheets, P/L and cash flow statements will likely help to you uncover some hidden value that may not be obvious to a lot of investors based on technical analysis or inferior analysts' reports to buy shares. But the limitations of accounting information is its historical in nature, some valuable assets not meeting accounting recognition criteria will not be reflected in accounts, good business model and management cannot be discovered through analysis of financial statements.

Nevertheless, financial statements analysis is the first starting point to check how healthy a company's financial position and performance currently and in the past.
As a value investor, I always start with objective analysis by checking the latest balance sheet for clue on company's cash and short term investment, liquidity, long-term debts position and any valuable assets e.g. real estates in prominent location not fully reflected in the balance sheets. Then, I look at the P/L position in the past to discern the normalized earnings of the company whether that normalized earnings consistent with the cash flow statements presented to ensure accounting earnings were actually translated into actual cash flow to the company concerned. Lastly, I will examine the subjective side of the business by evaluation the company's earning sources and business model to check whether the company can compete successfully within its industry. The subjective side of the business part is difficult to perform due to future uncertainties beyond our human ability to predict. That's why Warren Buffett always buy companies with simple business model within his circle of competence to understand so that he is more likely to know the future cash flow of a company to actually put a value on it.

Having said that, how to use the above value investing approach to value Hengyuan? First, the company latest quarterly report 31 Dec 2017, balance sheet showed cash in bank and FD holding about RM510 mil, current ratio is about 4, total current assets is RM2.8 bil more than cover its entire liabilities (both short and long term) of RM2 bil. Latest quarterly EPS was 61.18 cents (profit after taxation is about RM180 mil) with cash flow from operating activities after depreciation was about 311 mil. It does has a very healthy financial position and performance recently.

We can see its operating results started to improve in year 2015 till today with oil price hovers around USD60-70 today thanks to the OPEC production curb, the world commodities price is picking up with the growth in world economy but the likelihood of large fluctuation either move up or down substantially in oil price in the near future is dim as concerns over the volume of US shale oils supply, Federal Reserve tightening policy and US-China trade wars will cap its upward trends in future.

Hengyuan is a cyclical company which cash flows and earnings will be moving up during the times when commodities cycle is picking up, so one should expect its market price to go wild when the cycle is peak like the year 2008 and the recent year 2014. So it is hard to find normalized earnings and cash flow of Hengyuan in the past, it is about timing of buying the shares during commodities picking up time. Like what I said in the beginning, valuation is an art more than a science. I prefer to put a range of value on a company and see how much margin of safety I have if I were to buy a company's shares at market value today. Usually I require at least 30% margin of safety before I will invest in the shares.

If one is to review the balance sheet of the company, its NTA is RM5.9 per share, if using earnings base to value I will conservatively use the latest quarterly EPS 61.18 cents (EPS RM2.4 per year) as a guide for the year 2018 and using PE ratio 6 (due to small capital company), one can come to a value of RM14.40. IF one would to put a weighting of 20% on book value and 80% on earnings based value, then one can come to a valuation of Hengyuan at about RM12.70. Market price today is about RM9.2, margin of safety is about 40%. So it does provide a good margin of safety for the value investor to buy at the current market price.

The above is my personal impartial opinion, please check with your financial advisers before you invest in the shares.