Posted by Flintstones > 2019-01-04 17:51 | Report Abuse

The sifu spoke.

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-01-04 17:55 | Report Abuse

We need book recommendations from long numbers guy

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-04 18:09 | Report Abuse

Well if someone followed his philosophy, it should work. I agree on many points.

I'll just say this, you can go and pay 30PE, that is fine, but you better be damn sure its below the discounted net present value of all future cashflows.

If you buy wonderful companies at fair prices. you will do well.

If you buy wonderful companies at ANY price, you will die, unless you hold and just buy rain or shine.

If you used margin buying wonderful companies at any price, you will die.

Posted by UnicornP > 2019-01-04 18:11 | Report Abuse

Rule no.1 - You must be superb in stock picking.
Rule no.2 - You must know how the stock market works.

A superb stock is a stock which is expected to make astronomical earnings in the near future.
The stock market works in a way where panic sellers lose, composed buyer/holders win.

Posted by Shinnzaii > 2019-01-04 18:11 | Report Abuse

nice

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-04 18:16 | Report Abuse

Respectfully,

How on earth did you read

"the word of the sage of omaha. Reading about benjamin graham, walter schloss, philip fisher, george soros, charlie munger etc"

And then proceed to invest in,

Aokam Perdana, Ekran bhd, and most obviously "undervalued" Renong bhd

All of which had massive debts, Ekran had non stop cash calls.

And Renong, How was it undervalued? Did you rely on UEM word that it was undervalued via the Put contract? Did you do your expected value calculations?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-04 18:18 | Report Abuse

Excellent. Thanks for sharing.

Posted by lazycat > 2019-01-04 18:29 | Report Abuse

nice story , thx for sharing

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 18:36 | Report Abuse

its not about book knowledge...all the book knowledge already there in one page.......in the final analysis, its also about character and habits....

character cannot change one......can change a person's character?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 18:41 | Report Abuse

survivalship bias yes......but there is more to survivalship bias here.....there is logic here.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-01-04 18:45 | Report Abuse

Agree that most investor would be better finding quality stocks than getting into cheap yet seems undervalued stocks because that requires strong psychological and sharp judgement.

Disagree with definition of moat. Moat is the ability to earn an abnormal return above cost (ROIC-CoC) as well as the competitive advantage period (CAP).

There is no relationship between owning 28 stocks and poor performance, as much as I personally prefer concentrated portfolio. Joel Greenblatt has done well owning 20-30 stocks; deep value strategy rely on EV/EBIT has done well with 30-40 stocks.

Company that increase debt might require further scrutiny but it is far from destroying shareholder value. It is about capital allocation. Borrowing cost can be cheap at the right time. And there is no clear definition of 'increase' debt. Debt can go up 100%, from 1% to 2% of profit, is that a lot? It's subjective.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-04 18:46 | Report Abuse

I think the author after some stumble in investment has found his own successful formula, he should stick with it no matter what loh...!!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 18:47 | Report Abuse

every era has some gems.....

next gems? Vitrox is a possibility....u looking for a moat in Vitrox?.....no moat here...what u get is a company that is very innovative and delivered so far and should continue to deliver.....

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-04 19:32 | Report Abuse

For renong, when someone offers a legally binding offer to buy your stock for 4x market value, if you didn't know better, wouldn't you take the arbitrage value?

For aokam, teh soon seng was the kyy of the day. If you read the valuation reports, they had vertical integration and undervaluation with thousands of time concessions and acres of timber land, it was trading far below price to book and even had a pe of 5 once.

Ekran in 1994 won a bid for a small dam in Sarawak without open tender for 7.5 billion. It was called bakun. Imagine a small company winning such a big contact without open tender. Wouldn't you invest in it? In fact, didn't you do the same thing with jaks? Hoping for that ipp to finish completion.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

I know now.


If I had to choose between layhong and QL in 2017, you know my clear choice. The superb company that commands good valuation. Or the so called value play.

Posted by ChongHH > 2019-01-04 19:40 | Report Abuse

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1bpqyp4684v06/The-Wall-Street-Math-Hustle I hope this article is useful to a certain extent

Posted by enigmatic > 2019-01-04 20:07 | Report Abuse

The newest legendary investor of i3investor.com - Mr. Philip aka Long Number Guy.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2019-01-04 20:14 | Report Abuse

Posted by enigmatic > Jan 4, 2019 08:07 PM | Report Abuse

The newest legendary investor of i3investor.com - Mr. Philip aka Long Number Guy.
====================

I support that, no sarcasm.

Posted by Alex™ > 2019-01-04 20:15 | Report Abuse

Rich uncle.

Posted by Alex™ > 2019-01-04 20:23 | Report Abuse

Gooding article. Deserved to be called i3 investor... If not... Can rename this place as i3 gambler. Com

Posted by Alex™ > 2019-01-04 20:24 | Report Abuse

Long number uncle... Can share? U never make mistake? Those good earning companies turning out to be a farce later on. U hoot pbb 1997?

Posted by cheoky > 2019-01-04 20:35 | Report Abuse

A new sifu in town. Can say this sifu maximize his situation to his advantages. Some other people had such attitude but may not have such opportunity. Bottom line never die attitude, work hard and smart, keep learning and hit hard when you felt that is it. Then pray for luck.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-04 21:00 | Report Abuse

Up until 2001, all my value plays, technical plays, call options, put options, warrants all turn to dust. I had to avoid in-laws and wife and friends and hide in Sabah jungle until 2008 to collect money to buy back face. I bought pbb after it has long run up in after cny bonus in 2012. Overpriced then too.

Important thing is, in no time had I ever had the fear my stock was going to come crashing down, the trauma of waking up at 1 in the morning with cold sweats thinking of how to pay back my friends and family is enough for my entire life. Banks and credit cards calling everyday. Margin calls keep hitting.

I'm sure for everyone the most important thing is to not lose money. Most people try not to lose money by buying cheap companies at cheaper prices. I just choose to pay good prices for great ones.

Posted by cheoky > 2019-01-04 21:02 | Report Abuse

Got lots of girlfriends in Sabah? Must had fantastic life there. Lolx

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-04 21:09 | Report Abuse

Ricky yeo: don't be silly. There is a direct correlation between owning too many stocks and having poor performance. The more stocks you have, the more you have to keep track of. The more you keep track of, the higher your error of margin. If you don't believe me, try buying (or even finding) 1000 of your value stocks, all you will have as average performance. Even if you didn't, how do you make sure that you can catalyze distribution of capital to all your 1000 stocks equally? You just can't.

If you don't believe me, we can do the Warren buffet 1 million challenge, you buy 1000 stocks, I'll buy 4. In 10 years let's compare results.

The only people who have different sick recommendations every week are fund managers. And they don't even invest their own money but take your commissions and charge you money to learn how to invest.

Posted by probability > 2019-01-04 21:10 | Report Abuse

this long number guys is qqq3's son lor...

same kind of analyst but no analysis

Posted by probability > 2019-01-04 21:14 | Report Abuse

This definition of MOAT by longnumber is laughable liao...

Ricky had said it correctly.

after all the long wordings....what was the takeaway readers could make?

i am clueless actually

.........................................

Thinking about it long and hard, I found the perfect simple equation. My additional personal screener other than PE, PB, ROIC, DEBT etc etc etc.

MOAT = (growth of revenue + growth of earnings - sacrifice of shareholder value) * XX number of years.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 21:17 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > Jan 4, 2019 09:10 PM | Report Abuse

this long number guys is qqq3's son lor...

same kind of analyst but no analysis
========

too advanced for u....u are still at book shop stage....

Posted by probability > 2019-01-04 21:21 | Report Abuse

both also very weak in maths liao...

just that one is fake accountant

the other one is fake engineer...

mechanical engineer with such weak maths? omg....

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-04 21:23 | Report Abuse

Obviously, my screener for moat is based on a ratio. Every business is different, which is why I stick to businesses I know. My concept of moat is very simple to understand, if a company is able to grow revenue and earnings consistently for more than 5 years without taking on excessive debt ( again different business have different gearings) or excessive dilution of shares(via esos, warrants, share placements), then that is a sign for me to study deeper on the company.
Anything else
1. Friends/fund manager recommendations
2. Land/asset/cash and equivalent
3. Price to earnings/ price to book/ net asset value

All these are to serve as only a guide and taken with a pinch of salt. They mean absolutely nothing, especially when you are a minority shareholder unable to unlock value.

Posted by probability > 2019-01-04 21:26 | Report Abuse

longnumber ...what is your profession as a mech engineer?

you worked in remote sabah as mill technician?

i am very doubtful leh...

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 21:29 | Report Abuse

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 4, 2019 09:09 PM | Report Abuse

Ricky yeo: don't be silly. There is a direct correlation between owning too many stocks and having poor performance. The more stocks you have, the more you have to keep track of. The more you keep track of, the higher your error of margin. If you don't believe me, try buying (or even finding) 1000 of your value stocks, all you will have as average performance. Even if you didn't, how do you make sure that you can catalyze distribution of capital to all your 1000 stocks equally? You just can't.

If you don't believe me, we can do the Warren buffet 1 million challenge, you buy 1000 stocks, I'll buy 4. In 10 years let's compare results.
==========

another gem...there is really no way to make it meaningful without narrowing it to 5 or less........

scared? its normal to be scared......


CEOs narrow to one...their own companies.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 21:30 | Report Abuse

calvin here is legendary.....he says 5% invested in stockmarket, spread over 50 stocks.

Posted by probability > 2019-01-04 21:30 | Report Abuse

no decent mech eng grads get paid overtime liao in sabah...
thats for some diploma holders...

what technician are you?

pump fitter?


.............

I put my head down, worked my ass off as an engineer in remote Sabah, took every extra overtime available, earned my paycheck, paid back every single cent to all my friends and family, and saved my money in the ASB account of my technicians and friends (at 10% p.a why not )

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 21:33 | Report Abuse

10154899906070843 > Jan 4, 2019 09:23 PM | Report Abuse

Obviously, my screener for moat is based on a ratio. Every business is different, which is why I stick to businesses I know.
===

another gem...its quality of the people, then the business then the numbers ...in this order, not the reverse.......

Posted by probability > 2019-01-04 21:34 | Report Abuse

looks like you cannot respond directly...your father qqq3 need to come and help u meh??

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 21:35 | Report Abuse

y probability > Jan 4, 2019 09:30 PM | Report Abuse

no decent mech eng grads get paid overtime liao in sabah...
========

technicians is ok.....brains come in all forms....Like Li Kashing....

Posted by probability > 2019-01-04 21:36 | Report Abuse

ya ya qqq3....let your son speak to me leh...dont sibuk so much can ah..

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 21:37 | Report Abuse

probability...how did Li Kashing assess opportunities?.....that is the same way long number assess opportunities......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 21:37 | Report Abuse

long number early to bed....

Posted by probability > 2019-01-04 21:38 | Report Abuse

aiyo..papa very protective and send son to bed liao...wakakaka

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-01-04 21:39 | Report Abuse

What moat do QL have?? Its brand is just so average in Malaysia, oversea nobody heard of. Ppl buy egg or surumi will not purposely goto choose QL brand la, instead there are dozen of other eggs,surumi brands in the market etc. Its not like NESTLE, APPLE, so stop talking about MOAT in QL, its imaginary.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 21:44 | Report Abuse

y shpg22 > Jan 4, 2019 09:39 PM | Report Abuse

What moat do QL have??
========

its your definition of moat that needs changing then....

Posted by godhand > 2019-01-04 21:47 | Report Abuse

moat to be has only one meaning the possibility of the business to be replicated. It can be strong or weak. When a business cannot be copied, its irreplacable and therefore u can demand high margin. When u think of it, all good business have high margin.

Think of it this way can macdonald ever be replicated?
it can never be copied therefore it has a very strong moat. To me QL has some sort of weak moat or u could call it niche but far fetch from irreplacable.

Posted by godhand > 2019-01-04 21:51 | Report Abuse

Nestle on the other hand has moat. The moat is milo. The brand itself is a moat.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-04 21:58 | Report Abuse

if u can replicate Dr Chia......then u got some thing.....

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-04 22:11 | Report Abuse

Probability, you seem to spend vitriol without any sense whatever. If you have never worked for Mitsubishi epc, George Kent, boilermech then you probably work for some pitiful chinaman engineering firm that never pays for quality work. I am an engineering manager for a multinational company, and I sign off on overtime and outstation pay for my engineers all the time.

Maybe you are not qualified enough to work at a epc?

Posted by probability > 2019-01-04 22:23 | Report Abuse

what eng and procurement of products you do? in remote sabah?

need not name the MNC but you can tell the job nature

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-04 22:23 | Report Abuse

Funny thing is, you only know how to comment, but your biggest 2016 picks were both penny stocks which I have been even heard of before. Hexza and jaycorp. I'm sure you paid low pe and good prices for those stocks and enjoyed your big huge profit in your investment. But would you have been willing to keep those stocks for the long term? Would you have added more every quarter into your 2016 investments? No you would have not had the skills or the confidence to.

Small men make small decisions.

Posted by probability > 2019-01-04 22:24 | Report Abuse

looking at your maths level...i am seriously doubtful you are a qualified engineer

Posted by probability > 2019-01-04 22:27 | Report Abuse

me small...you already attack me on my investing skills liao...how did that came about? is that relevant here? its not me who claimed i am stock investment expert...

its you who had claimed you are an eng manager