Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-30 08:11 | Report Abuse

USD 67,000,000 × 25 = USD 1,675,000,000

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-30 08:19 | Report Abuse

Suppose 67m is x fixed tapi kan bigger over time

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-30 08:21 | Report Abuse

Interest income x dari PPA tapi produk of accounting

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-30 08:25 | Report Abuse

Assuming a constant US$258m capacity payment for 25 years, the IRR will be around 12.5% which is in line with the projection by Jaks’ management

Earnings based solely on the capacity payment;

                Earnings   = Capacity Payment – Loan receivable repayment – Interest Expense

                                 = US$258m – US$67m – US$1,287m x 6% (Est)

                                 = US$114m

This earnings projection is also in line with Kenanga Research's earnings forecast of US$120m for Jaks Hai Duong Power Plant



DK66

Can elaborate yg ni?

Kenanga punya not net all?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-30 08:28 | Report Abuse

Not all in and net all?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-30 08:33 | Report Abuse

Anyway apa PAT klau future potential when capacity is ramped up to 90%.. can jz show PAT tu here?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-30 08:34 | Report Abuse

Ramai jz look at "punch line" ni...

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-30 09:00 | Report Abuse

Sarifah,

The plant began operation in April 2015. So, it is less than 25 years now

Loan receivable is expected future payment from EVN not bank borrowing

The interest expenses is based on expected balance of actual borrowing after 3 years of repayment
1,950m x 75% x 22/25 = 1,287m

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-30 09:08 | Report Abuse

Expected earnings at 90 untilisation,

Earnings= US$346m – US$67m – US$1,287m x 6% (Est)

= US$202m

Assuming O&M at 1% of project cost = US$19m
Currently Zero Tax

PAT = US$183m

Anyway, this is just a rough estimate.

Posted by Sslee > 2019-04-30 09:57 | Report Abuse

Dear DK66,
I think some error on your interest income calculation for year 2017 and 2018.

Interest income (2018)
Note 16 - Segment and Geographic Information
Interest income year 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014
Eurasia SBU ($Million)186 130 139 115 2

May I ask how you get the loan receivable was reduced by USD 67 million.

Thank you

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-30 10:16 | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee,

Thank you for your information

I assumed 133m (same as 2016) interest income for 2017 because it was mentioned in 2017 AR that

"Interest income decreased $1 million in 2017 from 2016 with no material drivers."

It was mentioned that the adoption of new accounting standard in 2018 has resulted in increase in interest income by 58m. Therefore, 133 + 58 = $191m.

Working backward, interest income for 2017 should be 186-58 = $128m

The information in note 16 should be more accurate, I shall amend accordingly

Loan receivable as at 1/1/2018 was 1,490 and 1,423 at 31/12/2018

Thank you.
-------------------------------------

Sslee Dear DK66,
I think some error on your interest income calculation for year 2017 and 2018.

Interest income (2018)
Note 16 - Segment and Geographic Information
Interest income year 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014
Eurasia SBU ($Million)186 130 139 115 2

May I ask how you get the loan receivable was reduced by USD 67 million.

Thank you

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-30 21:47 | Report Abuse

I have made changes to the article to include Jaks' perspective under Mong Duong II models.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-01 12:40 | Report Abuse

DK66

U punya... Tariff Payment Excluding Coal Cost (USD’m)... in ur table is GROSS tariff before netting capacity tariff or NET of capacity tariff??

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-01 12:42 | Report Abuse

Or in other word Interest income dah u recognised in ur PAT calculations at 60% and 90% ke belum?

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-01 13:08 | Report Abuse

All inclusive except Coal cost

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-05-01 13:13 | Report Abuse

may not reach $ 2 in 2019.....

my trading range forecast for rest of this year.....70 sen to $ 1.20......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-05-01 13:23 | Report Abuse

this thing not due to finish until end 2020 and commercial production 2021 with results to show. Expectations were heightened when Kenanga wrongly reported that Phase 1 will be completed end of this year.


in the mean time, we do not know reaction of investors to EPCC profits and not enough research / disclosures on cashflow requirements of the company from now to end 2020.

Max private placements is 10% every 12 months, they cannot have another private placement for another 12 months....without shareholders approvals. There will be another private placement in 2020 before this thing is done.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-05-01 13:26 | Report Abuse

recently announced private placements is not a negative for me......fund raising improves the chances of success and therefore reduces the required discounts. ....EPS dilution not withstanding.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-05-01 13:34 | Report Abuse

Not negative for me too

When you are under capitalised, you should beef up your capital

Especially if there is plenty of earning to cushion dilution

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-01 13:45 | Report Abuse

Ok tq

DK66 All inclusive except Coal cost

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-01 13:46 | Report Abuse

Timing...

Tunggu QR or clarify kat AGM

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-01 13:50 | Report Abuse

Jaks small

Klau misalan TNB take over CPEEC place kena RI PP kaw kaw jua tapi IPP income besar

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-01 13:53 | Report Abuse

Jaks was not capitalized for a venture into IPP sekadar utk bikin pipe dan property biz jer

Sykt nyamuk bikin IPP

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-01 13:58 | Report Abuse

Jaks sykt nyamuk bikin IPP cita cita besar

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-01 14:10 | Report Abuse

Cita cita IPP kan jadi kenyataan soon

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-01 14:13 | Report Abuse

Sslee

U mcm mana.. in?

Sarifah see u dah byk luangkan masa on Jaks

Control ur risk by making jz a small investment dulu

To increase with clarity

Posted by i3Value > 2019-05-01 14:44 | Report Abuse

Sarifah, is obvious that some pple like Sslee, Philip, Choivo dont like Jaks and wont buy Jaks. Their reasons are endless and new reason will come out whenever they are challenged. But they suka jaga tepi kain orang lain to prove that they are correct. Dont know if they need to justify to themself or just must win every challenge

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-01 14:54 | Report Abuse

Yes Sslee x beli is at odd with his own findings n analysis

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-05-01 15:08 | Report Abuse

SarifahSelinder > May 1, 2019 2:54 PM | Report Abuse

Yes Sslee x beli is at odd with his own findings n analysis
=========

buy Jaks and double money needs patience..........SSSLEE prefers down hill Insas.......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-05-01 15:09 | Report Abuse

SarifahSelinder > May 1, 2019 2:54 PM | Report Abuse

Yes Sslee x beli is at odd with his own findings n analysis
=========

buy Jaks and double money needs patience..........SSSLEE prefers down hill Insas.......

companies in downhill attracts a lot of people. They call themselves value investors.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-05-01 15:40 | Report Abuse

y SarifahSelinder > May 1, 2019 3:29 PM | Report Abuse

Jaks look forward to IPP completion Insas?
==========

sslee says Insas for value investors.

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-01 19:08 | Report Abuse

What Jaks really needs is investors' confidence. How many can really deny that Jaks hai duong power plant is great ? It is proven in every manner that it is guaranteed to make big money for Jaks.

But most would rather wait until the plant is operational. I won't argue against safe investing. One could argue against buying Jaks now on safety ground but not because Mr Koon has sold out or why 冷眼 not buying.

There were fresh funds buying additional 35m shares, and big individuals buying additional 30m shares after Mr koon sold out. Why are they buying ? I think the answer lies in this article.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-02 08:07 | Report Abuse

DK66


Possible for u to tell from MD2 capacity payment dah started from 22-4-2015 or kena follow date ori tunggu 6 months later?



Since April 22, 2015, both units of the Power Facility have been in commercial operations, six months earlier than the committed schedule with the Vietnamese government

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-02 08:50 | Report Abuse

Sarifah,

It was not possible to determine the capacity charge prior to 2018. It is my believe that the new accounting standard ASC606, adopted in 2018, requires less judgement on the management to determine financing component of the construction obligation. Hence, capacity payment which is determinable and unconditional was entirely taken up as "loan and interest repayment". That is why there was a big increase in interest income in 2018.

As a result of the new accounting treatment, capacity charge became obvious in 2018.

In any case, as the capacity charge is solely based on the dependable capacity made available to EVN, there should not be any great variation in capacity payment over the years.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-02 09:00 | Report Abuse

DK66


Taksiran u mcm mana IPP dan gomen Vietnam decide that capacity is available to b entitled to capacity payment?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-02 09:02 | Report Abuse

77% minimum dah cukup to entitle to 100% capacity payment?

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-02 09:09 | Report Abuse

Sarifah,

capacity payment is based on the design of the power plant. In MD2 case, its power plant has total rated capacity of 1,242MW. However, it has to satisfy the capacity performance test to determine its dependable capacity. Once the maximum dependable capacity is established, it is used to calculate the capacity payment. It does not depend on the actual operation and output.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-02 09:20 | Report Abuse

DK66

Dlm situasi unlikely klau coal x cukup mcm mana cerita nya capacity payment still payable?

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-02 13:50 | Report Abuse

Yes, capacity payment is unconditional.

-------------------------
Dlm situasi unlikely klau coal x cukup mcm mana cerita nya capacity payment still payable?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-02 13:50 | Report Abuse

Ni a one time process or repeating many times misalan every month must prove capacity requirement is satisfied?



However, it has to satisfy the capacity performance test to determine its dependable capacity. Once the maximum dependable capacity is established, it is used to calculate the capacity payment

Posted by newbie8080 > 2019-05-02 13:52 | Report Abuse

Why is the capacity for Mong Duong II is low?
Shouldn't it operate at least between 70%-80%?

Posted by lextcs > 2019-05-02 13:56 | Report Abuse

accumulate jaks this month...buy when everyone is selling in may and going away.

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-02 14:02 | Report Abuse

I think once a year or once every two years.

------------------
SarifahSelinder Ni a one time process or repeating many times misalan every month must prove capacity requirement is satisfied?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-02 14:03 | Report Abuse

Ok

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-02 14:03 | Report Abuse

In 2017, Mong Duong II was on reserve shutdown for 5 months at the request of Electricity of Vietnam, given that the hydropower plants were running at high capacity due to unusually heavier rainfall.

-------------------------------------
newbie8080 Why is the capacity for Mong Duong II is low?
Shouldn't it operate at least between 70%-80%?

Posted by lextcs > 2019-05-02 14:03 | Report Abuse

waiting for right entry period. Another project in HCMC?

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-02 14:04 | Report Abuse

Coal power plant is best to operate at base load of 77% or higher.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-02 14:06 | Report Abuse

IPP VIETNAM FOR DUMMIES



Worst case scenario is bila 0 sales from sales of electricity sbb power plant diminta tutup not to generate electricity for one year by EVN

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-02 14:10 | Report Abuse

DK66



Would u say yg ni better than FD

FD guaranteed by PIDM

IPP ni guaranteed by gomen Vietnam


IPP IRR 12% loan interest 7% some more ada loan repayments




Worst-Case Earnings Analysis

Capacity payment provides the least case scenario for earnings;
                Earnings   = Capacity Payment – Loan receivable repayment – Interest Expense

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-02 14:13 | Report Abuse

That is why I believe Jaks is a life time opportunity. Where to find such deal ?