Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-02 13:50 | Report Abuse

Ni a one time process or repeating many times misalan every month must prove capacity requirement is satisfied?



However, it has to satisfy the capacity performance test to determine its dependable capacity. Once the maximum dependable capacity is established, it is used to calculate the capacity payment

Posted by newbie8080 > 2019-05-02 13:52 | Report Abuse

Why is the capacity for Mong Duong II is low?
Shouldn't it operate at least between 70%-80%?

Posted by lextcs > 2019-05-02 13:56 | Report Abuse

accumulate jaks this month...buy when everyone is selling in may and going away.

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-02 14:02 | Report Abuse

I think once a year or once every two years.

------------------
SarifahSelinder Ni a one time process or repeating many times misalan every month must prove capacity requirement is satisfied?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-02 14:03 | Report Abuse

Ok

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-02 14:03 | Report Abuse

In 2017, Mong Duong II was on reserve shutdown for 5 months at the request of Electricity of Vietnam, given that the hydropower plants were running at high capacity due to unusually heavier rainfall.

-------------------------------------
newbie8080 Why is the capacity for Mong Duong II is low?
Shouldn't it operate at least between 70%-80%?

Posted by lextcs > 2019-05-02 14:03 | Report Abuse

waiting for right entry period. Another project in HCMC?

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-02 14:04 | Report Abuse

Coal power plant is best to operate at base load of 77% or higher.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-02 14:06 | Report Abuse

IPP VIETNAM FOR DUMMIES



Worst case scenario is bila 0 sales from sales of electricity sbb power plant diminta tutup not to generate electricity for one year by EVN

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-02 14:10 | Report Abuse

DK66



Would u say yg ni better than FD

FD guaranteed by PIDM

IPP ni guaranteed by gomen Vietnam


IPP IRR 12% loan interest 7% some more ada loan repayments




Worst-Case Earnings Analysis

Capacity payment provides the least case scenario for earnings;
                Earnings   = Capacity Payment – Loan receivable repayment – Interest Expense

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-02 14:13 | Report Abuse

That is why I believe Jaks is a life time opportunity. Where to find such deal ?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-02 14:14 | Report Abuse

Yes

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-02 14:18 | Report Abuse

DK66

Soalan last


How sure r u of the accuracy of ur taksiran in the above article?

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-02 14:25 | Report Abuse

I m quite sure on the capacity payment of US$253m received by MD2. It was clearly stated as such by the new accounting standard.

The distribution is another concrete evidence.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-05-02 14:37 | Report Abuse

DK66


#1 analyst of IPP Vietnam

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-02 15:41 | Report Abuse

MD2 earnings to AES Corporation is not significant. However, to Jaks, it is a world of difference.

Posted by newbie8080 > 2019-05-03 09:38 | Report Abuse

Any impact assuming consistent annual shutdown for 5 months?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note : In 2017, Mong Duong II was on reserve shutdown for 5 months at the request of Electricity of Vietnam, given that the hydropower plants were running at high capacity due to unusually heavier rainfall.

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-03 09:55 | Report Abuse

You can use 2017 results as a reference.
However, why do you want to make such unusual assumption ?

--------------------
newbie8080 Any impact assuming consistent annual shutdown for 5 months?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-05-03 09:57 | Report Abuse

I have been restraining myself not to shoot him...


newbie8080 Any impact assuming consistent annual shutdown for 5 months?

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-03 10:50 | Report Abuse

I have made changes to the article to add the analysis of financing requirement on earnings of MD2

Posted by newbie8080 > 2019-05-03 10:55 | Report Abuse

It's not unusual.
I occasionally travel to Cambodia for biz trips previously and noticed your note is quite accurate.
It's normally a rainy season between June to October.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by DK66 > May 3, 2019 9:55 AM | Report Abuse

You can use 2017 results as a reference.
However, why do you want to make such unusual assumption ?

--------------------
newbie8080 Any impact assuming consistent annual shutdown for 5 months?

Posted by newbie8080 > 2019-05-03 10:58 | Report Abuse

@ Icon8888

Go ahead if you can't help it.
I'm asking for opinion on impact assessment only.
It may sound stupid and ridiculous to you.
Only a fool will know himself.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by Icon8888 > May 3, 2019 9:57 AM | Report Abuse

I have been restraining myself not to shoot him...


newbie8080 Any impact assuming consistent annual shutdown for 5 months?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-05-03 10:59 | Report Abuse

if it is a recurrent theme, the power purchase agreement would have factored that in and reflects in tariff

come on lah...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-05-03 10:59 | Report Abuse

i3 standard has really dropped a lot

the whole place is flooded by newbies

I am not trying to flame

I am genuinely frustrated

Posted by newbie8080 > 2019-05-03 11:00 | Report Abuse

@ Icon8888

Let me guess.

The PPA is in your hand and you had witness the signing as well.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by Icon8888 > May 3, 2019 10:58 AM | Report Abuse

if it is a recurrent theme, the power purchase agreement would have factored that in and reflects in tariff

come on lah... i3 standard has really dropped a lot

the whole place is flooded by newbies

I am not trying to flame

many frustration is genuine

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-05-03 11:03 | Report Abuse

that is where your childishness came in

for old birds that understand how business operate, they don't worry about this kind of operational issue

if a recurrent theme can be identified by a newbie, it sure can be identified by the lawyers and investment bankers drafting the PPA

and things would have been done to address it

now you see why I am frustrated ?




========


@ Icon8888

Let me guess.

The PPA is in your hand and you had witness the signing as well.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by Icon8888 > May 3, 2019 10:58 AM | Report Abuse

if it is a recurrent theme, the power purchase agreement would have factored that in and reflects in tariff

come on lah... i3 standard has really dropped a lot

the whole place is flooded by newbies

I am not trying to flame

many frustration is genuine

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-03 11:08 | Report Abuse

Vietnam government will not build a power plant only to use it for 7 months annually.

Posted by newbie8080 > 2019-05-03 11:13 | Report Abuse

@ Icon8888

Read between the lines bro.
Venting your anger only reflects your low EQ.
Take a step back and look at it again.

EVN can request MDII to shutdown reserves for 5 months to priorities hydropower plants.

What does it say?

I hope DK66 can provide some insights on this.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note : In 2017, Mong Duong II was on reserve shutdown for 5 months at the request of Electricity of Vietnam, given that the hydropower plants were running at high capacity due to unusually heavier rainfall.

Posted by newbie8080 > 2019-05-03 11:16 | Report Abuse

@ DK66

Yup. I agree as well.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DK66 Vietnam government will not build a power plant only to use it for 7 months annually.

03/05/2019 11:08 AM

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-03 11:18 | Report Abuse

Newbie8080,

2017 is the only unusual year since operation in 2015 due to unusually heavier rainfall.

Any reason why you see this to be a frequent future event ?

Maybe you can enlighten us.

------------------------------
newbie8080 @ Icon8888

Read between the lines bro.
Venting your anger only reflects your low EQ.
Take a step back and look at it again.

EVN can request MDII to shutdown reserves for 5 months to priorities hydropower plants.

What does it say?

I hope DK66 can provide some insights on this.

Posted by newbie8080 > 2019-05-03 11:33 | Report Abuse

DK66,

It's not the isolated event in 2015 that triggers me.

I'm looking at the hydropower plants and their capacity.

If hydropower is able to generate more electricity either through technological advances and getting through the dry season as well,

could it mean EVN would request other thermal powerplant to shutdown the reserves as well?

Is this a distinct disadvantage to thermal powerplant vs hydropower plant in Vietnam?

Why is the Vietnam government favouring hydropower plant over thermal power plant?


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Newbie8080,

2017 is the only unusual year since operation in 2015 due to unusually heavier rainfall.

Any reason why you see this to be a frequent future event ?

Maybe you can enlighten us.

------------------------------
newbie8080 @ Icon8888

Read between the lines bro.
Venting your anger only reflects your low EQ.
Take a step back and look at it again.

EVN can request MDII to shutdown reserves for 5 months to priorities hydropower plants.

What does it say?

I hope DK66 can provide some insights on this.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-05-03 11:39 | Report Abuse

Posted by newbie8080 > May 3, 2019 11:33 AM | Report Abuse

DK66,

It's not the isolated event in 2015 that triggers me.
===========

there will be depression, there will be euphoria.....people buying now is taking all the execution risks...and some like me hope to sell when there is euphoria when the thing is completed. $ 2? can sell?

but 2 years....2 years a very long time in stock market...

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-03 14:06 | Report Abuse

Newbie8080,

Given a choice, no government in the world wants to build coal power plants. All will prefer hydro, wind, and solar, but these are subject to unpredictable weather conditions.

Coal power is consistent and reliable.

-------------------------
newbie8080 DK66,

It's not the isolated event in 2015 that triggers me.

I'm looking at the hydropower plants and their capacity.

If hydropower is able to generate more electricity either through technological advances and getting through the dry season as well,

could it mean EVN would request other thermal powerplant to shutdown the reserves as well?

Is this a distinct disadvantage to thermal powerplant vs hydropower plant in Vietnam?

Why is the Vietnam government favouring hydropower plant over thermal power plant?

Posted by edkfc > 2019-05-03 17:48 | Report Abuse

Newbie8080
Based on comprehensive study by the Joint Mekong Basin Planning committee , the average Capacity Factor for all the Hydro Power Station along the mekong river system range from 40% to 60% ! There are now more than 150 Hydro Power stations at various stages of running ,construction or planning along the poor Mekong, shared with Laos,Cambodia,Vietnam n Thai. ! The Hoover Dam in US runs at 23% and the 3Gorges Dam at 45%. On the other hand Modern Coal fired power station capacity factor run anywhere from 70% to 90%. Well you do the math.

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-03 20:17 | Report Abuse

edkfc, thanks for the information.

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-04 22:14 | Report Abuse

March 2019

According to Daine Loh, power and renewables analyst of Fitch Group’s Fitch Solutions Macro Research, Việt Nam’s coal-powered generation growth is expected to increase rapidly over the next decade and dominate the country’s power sector expansion.

“While the Government also intends to increase LNG imports and non-hydro renewable energy generation capacity, coal would remain the more attractive option over the next decade as it is cheaper and more reliable at present. As such, we forecast that coal generation will reach 50.5 per cent of the total consumption power mix by 2028, with gas at 22.5 per cent, hydropower at 22.8 per cent and non-hydro renewables at 3.8 per cent,” Loh told Việt Nam News.

“This is due to relatively slow supply growth from traditional sources of energy such as hydropower and natural gas, with the Government set to turn to coal to meet the surge in demand for power,” he explained.

According to Loh, traditionally, Viet Nam has relied on hydropower and natural gas for its power generation, but there are several obstacles to see continued growth in these two sectors.

Firstly, hydropower potential has already been almost fully exploited at present. Furthermore, recent droughts and decreasing water supplies highlight the threats facing Viet Nam’s hydropower generation output reliability.

Secondly, domestic gas reserves are depleting and will not sustain a substantial ramp-up in gas power generation over the longer term, Loh said.

“As a result, we expect the Government to turn largely to coal power to meet Viet Nam’s increasing power demand, which stems in particular from an expanding industry and manufacturing sector, in order to support continued economic growth. Rapid urbanisation and Government efforts to up electrification levels to 100 per cent will further boost electricity consumption growth rates.”


Read more at http://vietnamnews.vn/economy/506534/coal-fired-power-set-to-grow-to-meet-vietnams-needs.html#75sLv6TYI3Zegf6w.99

Posted by edkfc > 2019-05-06 12:48 | Report Abuse

DK ...think we should/can organize ourselves to get the best/maximum from the coming AGM ? Any thoughts ? Tks

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-08 11:41 | Report Abuse

Article was updated for AES Q1 2019 results.

Posted by Ricky Kiat > 2019-05-08 15:19 | Report Abuse

thanks, bro dk66 .

Posted by Sslee > 2019-05-09 19:41 | Report Abuse

Dear DK66,
Looking into AES 2016 Annual report where Moung Duong is group in Asia SBU (after year 2016 Moung Duong is group as Eurasia SBU)

Generation — Our Asia SBU has generation facilities in three countries. Operating installed capacity totals 2,300 MW. The following table lists our Asia SBU generation facilities:
Business Location: Fuel: Gross MW : AES Equity Interest: Year Acquired or Began Operation: Contract Expiration Date : Customer(s)
OPGC (1) India Coal 420 49% 1998 2026 GRID Corporation Ltd.India
Masinloc Philippines Coal 630 51% 2008 Mid and long-term Various
Masinloc ES Philippines Energy Storage 10 51% 2016
Mong Duong 2 Vietnam Coal 1,240 51% 2015 2040 EVN

What is recorded on Moung Duong are as follow:
Revenue:
2016: USD 340 Million. Power net output 5,695,113 MWh
2015: USD 233 million.
Interest income:
2015: USD 114 million
2016: USD 133 million

Balance sheet:
Q1 end March 2015
Service concession assets 1,520
Q2 end 30th June 2015
Service concession assets 1,538
Q3 end 30th Sept 2015
Service concession assets 1,554
Year end 31th Dec 2015
Service concession assets (million) net of accumulated amortization of $34. USD1,543.
Year end 31th Dec 2016
Service concession assets (million) net of accumulated amortization of $114. USD1,445.

Page 102: Fiscal year 2016 versus 2015
Operating margin increased $21 million or 14% which was driven primarily by the following:
Mong Duong: Impact of full year operations for 2016 compared to commencement of principal operations in April 2015. $ 16 million
---
Fiscal year 2015 versus 2014
Operating margin increase d $73 million or 96% which was driven primarily by the following:
Mong Duong: Commencement of principal operations in April 2015: USD 24 million
---
My questions:
1. Why Service concession assets USD 1.543b amortization USD 34m as of 31th Dec 2015 and not the total project cost of USD 1.95b.
2. Base on 2016 AES report how you derived your capacity charge of USD253 million.
3. Where you get the distributed figure of >US$90m to shareholders.

Thank you

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-09 23:33 | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee,

As i have said, there is not enough information in the AR to draw a conclusive answers to your question 1 and 2. For question 3, I have even provided the link and page numbers on this matter several times already.

I provide my explanations to Q 1 & 2 as follows;

Question 1

USD1.95b is the agreed project cost with the Vietnam government. It is not necessarily the actual construction cost. There could be cost savings as the project was completed 6 months ahead of schedule.

The agreed 1.95b could include inventory, maintenance parts, deposits, working capital, and reserve requirements. These items can't be amortised.

Question 2

The USD253m was derived from the 2018 AR after the new accounting policy was adopted. Only fixed, determined and unconditional payment can be consider interest income. Prior to 2018, apparently portion of the capacity charges was classified as revenue.

Question 3

Let me look out for my past comments

------------------------------------------------
My questions:
1. Why Service concession assets USD 1.543b amortization USD 34m as of 31th Dec 2015 and not the total project cost of USD 1.95b.
2. Base on 2016 AES report how you derived your capacity charge of USD253 million.
3. Where you get the distributed figure of >US$90m to shareholders.

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-09 23:37 | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee,

https://s2.q4cdn.com/825052743/files/doc_presentations/2016/AES-Q4-FY-...

Page 52 Mong Duong distributed US$46m to AES in 2016

https://s2.q4cdn.com/825052743/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2017/q4/...

Page 46 Mong Duong distributed US$51m to AES in 2017

Posted by DK66 > 2019-05-11 09:48 | Report Abuse

Vietnam to increase coal-fired electricity: experts
Source: Xinhua| 2019-03-06 13:52:15|Editor: Shi Yinglun

HANOI, March 6 (Xinhua) -- Though Vietnam plans to enhance its renewable energy capacity, the country is forecast to expand coal-powered generation as this cheap source remains the most feasible option to meet its rapidly rising electricity demand, daily newspaper Vietnam News on Wednesday quoted local and foreign experts as saying.

Tran Viet Ngai, chairman of the Vietnam Energy Association, said coal-fired power would still play a key role in the country's electricity industry next year.

According to the association, coal-fired power output per capita in Vietnam currently stands at 793 kWh, much lower than the world's average level of 1,290 kWh.

According to experts of London-based macroeconomic research firm Fitch Solutions Macro Research, Vietnam's coal-powered generation is likely to grow rapidly over the next decade and dominate the country's power sector expansion, mainly because hydropower potential has already been almost fully exploited, and depleting domestic gas reserves will not sustain a substantial ramp-up in gas-fired generation over the longer term.

However, Vietnamese Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Hoang Quoc Vuong has said the rapid increase in energy demand and consumption, at around 10 percent per year, had negative impacts on the environment as well as exhausted natural resources and affected energy security.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-03/06/c_137872950.htm

Posted by edkfc > 2019-05-11 13:05 | Report Abuse

The rainfall in Vietnam indeed spike up in 2017..by 10 to 40% as recorded by norther cities which has bigger impact on water sources. This looks like a once in 5 years or so event. ..unless el ninos go crazy. Nos run a bit after copy n paste !


Total rainfall at some stations by Vietnam Cities, provinces and Year
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Lai Chau 1,727.0 2,476.0 2,628.0 1,975.9 1,857.8 2,017.7 2,618.7 2,656.6 2,267.2 2,295.1 2,186.4 3,179.1
Sơn La 1,212.0 1,353.0 2,083.0 1,002.4 1,209.8 1,093.4 1,480.0 1,540.0 1,414.6 1,803.4 1,472.3 1,382.0
Tuyen Quang 1,596.0 1,294.0 1,721.0 1,284.3 1,284.3 1,449.5 1,995.3 1,648.7 1,499.2 2,173.7 1,494.9 2,372.7
Ha Noi 1,240.0 1,659.0 2,268.0 1,612.1 1,239.2 1,795.2 1,801.2 1,934.7 1,660.6 1,520.0 1,631.1 1,858.8
Bai Chay 1,697.0 1,432.0 1,971.0 1,567.3 1,842.0 1,823.8 2,142.0 2,724.1 1,922.0 2,367.6 2,166.8 2,640.2
Nam Dinh 1,114.0 1,087.0 1,800.0 1,643.6 1,461.4 1,767.2 1,772.8 1,757.3 1,721.4 1,349.7 1,612.3 2,318.3
Vinh 1,951.0 1,962.0 2,120.0 1,409.2 2,716.5 2,258.6 1,892.5 2,499.3 1,466.5 1,464.2 2,174.9 2,334.7
Hue 2,479.0 4,393.0 3,850.0 3,809.1 2,854.0 4,481.0 2,370.0 2,725.7 2,309.5 2,206.3 3,799.5 4,105.4
Da Nang 2,233.0 3,063.0 2,528.0 3,017.8 2,236.8 3,647.8 1,696.1 2,316.7 2,224.1 1,872.4 2,688.7 2,285.4
Qui Nhơn 1,291.0 2,241.0 2,337.0 2,273.6 2,684.9 1,524.9 1,483.0 1,904.9 1,627.9 1,351.4 2,518.3 2,396.3
Pleiku 2,178.0 2,314.0 1,645.0 2,725.4 2,725.4 2,567.2 2,207.5 2,243.8 2,457.7 1,634.1 1,890.0 1,887.3
Da Lat 1,698.0 2,156.0 1,577.0 1,849.1 1,849.1 1,650.0 1,859.5 1,935.4 2,079.0 1,951.4 2,033.8 2,047.9
Nha Trang 819.0 1,565.0 2,301.0 1,392.5 2,657.9 1,327.6 1,681.7 1,365.4 972.2 1,450.5 2,392.2 1,381.1
Vung Tau 1,514.0 1,522.0 1,390.0 1,162.7 1,162.7 1,382.9 1,215.6 1,366.6 1,377.4 1,279.5 1,366.0 1,709.7
Ca Mau 2,387.0 2,606.0 2,679.0 2,244.4 2,244.4 2,445.9 2,153.9 1,941.3 2,065.7 2,297.2 2,304.1 2,175.2

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-06-25 21:37 | Report Abuse

I deleted all my comments in this in depth analysis, especially upon receiving comments by i3Value which says I suka jaga tepi kain.

But now that the horses mouth has been proven true with a direct comment and reply from CFO and CEO where the annual return from the power plant will be around rm80-100 million per year to JAKS. I said it first here on this thread.

As this figure was told to me by the CFO himself previously, I would like to find out from DK66 if the numbers outed by CEO and CFO is accurate or false, as the numbers fall far below even the worse case scenario provided by DK66.

Question now is, how now brown cow? What is then the intrinsic value of JAKS now that we have a more accurate number from the powerplant... What other clear future growth triggers will change our valuation of JAKS?

>>>>>>>>>>>>
Under this model, Jaks' 40% sharing of profit will be around RM180m

Posted by DK66 > 2019-06-25 23:29 | Report Abuse

Few points to wonder ;

1. is the figure provided by the management based on 30% or 40% profit sharing ?
2. management had mentioned more than RM100m earnings from vietnam during the 2018 AGM, why different now ?
3. does RM80 - 100m profit concur with 8 years payback period provided by the management ?

Posted by DK66 > 2019-06-25 23:55 | Report Abuse

管理层说，待越南海阳省发电厂竣工后，届时能源业务每年可贡献超过1亿令吉的营运盈利。

https://app.sinchew.com.my/amucsite//pad/index.html#/detail/1768693/2002

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > 2019-06-26 06:44 | Report Abuse

The lesson to learn from all of this is to never extrapolate too far out to use too many assumptions in making an investment choice.

If at all possible, it is always to be conservative and safe.

Start with real numbers, real figures and make assumptions from there.

Picking numbers out of newspaper reports and analyst presentations is a recipe for disaster.

Always remembered, downsides first before upsides.

In the absence real actual results from the power plant which is not currently up and running, the first assumptions is:


1. What if the plant runs into trouble and didn't get completed, what is the future of JAKS?
2. What if the plant gets completed and returns is half of worse projections, what is the future of JAKS?
3. What is the impact of construction delays and litigations long term?

Once we can work out with more certainty on the downsides, then and only then does it becomes prudent to start calculating your chickens before they are hatched.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-06-26 07:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by DK66 > 2019-06-26 09:33 | Report Abuse

Mong Duong II is a solid proof that investment in coal power plant in Vietnam under the BOT scheme is profitable, save and attractive.

If one worries about the execution risks, you can only wait until the plant commences operation before investing.