Posted by bpsiah > 2021-03-10 15:15 | Report Abuse

Never ever follow these analysts estimation. Their estimations are like horror stories.

Posted by BeLikeBuffett > 2021-03-10 15:18 | Report Abuse

Back in 2020, i always find that TopGlove management has been very approacheable to the IBs analysts. With various zoom briefing on the company progress, even before the super profit being annouced. And all IBs started to give sky high TP, some even give TP RM100, citing "paradigm shift", "structural changes" etc.

Now after 3Q of superprofit, every q beating previous q, and all IBs started selling the shares like a PN17 company and reduced the TP.

It really make one wonder their motives and competency.

Also a lesson for all corp management, all these so called IB analysts are no friend of you, they will skin u alive if they had a chance.

Posted by patrico8 > 2021-03-10 15:25 | Report Abuse

These analysts are by nature biased. Most of their reports are after the fact, and to serve their ( and bosses?) purpose. I normally just take them at face value, their use to me for investment purpose is , regretfully , minimal.

Posted by LimitUp > 2021-03-10 15:52 | Report Abuse

Some of these analysts report with regards to TG is utter garbage. Reports produced with clear bias and intention to mislead. Completely useless garbage!

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-03-10 18:45 | Report Abuse

bpsiah, BeLikeBuffett, patrico8, LimitUp, thank you for your comments.

I just wanted to mention that not all reports are questionable. For instance, the reports of PublicInvest and HLIB make a lot of sense.

PublicInvest revise their FY21 earnings forecast upwards by 13%, and they adjust their price target slightly upwards (by about 4%).

HLIB just make minor balance sheet adjustments, and correspondingly adjust their price target by 8 sen upwards, to RM8.14.

This is the type of movement that is expected from self-respecting analysts.

Posted by treack > 2021-03-10 19:09 | Report Abuse

Thanks BenTan for another excellent post.

These reports makes us question the agenda (or plain incompetence ?) behind the downgrades.

The disparity between the share prices, these few analyst reports and the performance of the underlying business are getting wider.

such a big disconnect baffles me. What are they trying to achieve?

Posted by DickyMe > 2021-03-10 19:11 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by valendinlou > 2021-03-10 19:34 | Report Abuse

obviously this person is paid by ah chai or other glove gurus

he only appeared after selldown of Top Glove last year

Posted by muk912 > 2021-03-10 20:17 | Report Abuse

Many of the analysts have been working in the IB for many years. If their estimation are really accurate, they already quit their job and enjoy life with their fruitful investments. If you follow their recommendation and TP, u will follow them work till 65 years old!

Posted by Gaussian > 2021-03-10 20:44 | Report Abuse

There are times when analysts are racing to be a joker. The current one is MAYBANK Lee

Posted by YC88 > 2021-03-10 21:50 | Report Abuse

IB won't help retail investors make money, simple as that. Jus do the opposite of what they said, then we should do fine.

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > 2021-03-10 22:10 | Report Abuse

obviously valendinlou and dickyme is paid by JPig mor0ns or the evil shortists. or the maybank ANALysts.

Posted by Anthem2 > 2021-03-10 22:26 | Report Abuse

Absolutely!.....and it saddens me to see the level of professionalism among some of these anal-ysts on display for all to see! Keep up the great work, Ben!

Posted by observatory > 2021-03-10 22:29 | Report Abuse

Hi Ben, thanks for another great contribution. I agree with your criticisms on the analysts' work.

I actually made a similar comment in your article on Supermax last week. The question then was why Supermax price continued to slide despite most analysts’ buy calls. I postulated that the market dominated by institutions simply doesn’t trust analyst inputs.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bursainvestments/2021-03-02-story-h1541975241-Supermax_Trading_at_Forward_PE_of_3_3_While_Sitting_on_RM3_56_Billion_C.jsp

Sell side analysts are known for adjusting their TPs to stay not far off from the current market price. If the market price has dropped by say 20% since the last quarterly report, they may adjust their TP down by roughly 20% in the current quarter while still maintaining their buy/ hold calls.

The valuation assumptions and calculations are reversed engineered accordingly. It happened last year when the price was on the way up, and it happened this year again when the price was on the way down.

Moreover, analysts also need the “safety in number”. Not only their TPs are usually not far off from market price, but also not far off from one another. There is no reward for being a hero. The odd one out is usually hammered. As you've commented, Affin Hwang analyst was ridiculed in July last year when it put up a TP of around RM60 (RM20 after split-adjusted), and a bull case of RM110 (RM37 split-adjusted)!

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/top-gloves-fair-value-could-surpass-rm110-affin-hwang-says

If the Affin analyst was forgiven, the same cannot be said of the JP Morgan analyst who went the other extreme by assigning the infamous RM3.50 target price in Dec last year.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/jp-morgan-pegs-these-glove-makers-fair-value-half-their-market-price-says-supernormal-cycle

With such experiences, the analysts have good (personal) reasons to maintain buy calls with TP’s just a few notches higher than the market price. What they did not do well is to cover their tracks in their valuation work, as you’ve rightly highlighted. But such a mistake is common in the rush for time. Analysts often have to churn out multiple reports overnight during reporting seasons.

However, their valuation mistakes cut both ways. I’ll take the RHB report you highlighted as an example.

You’ve rightly pointed out that the analyst overlooked 2 quarters of earnings for FY21. Given the cash flow for FY21 was estimated at around RM10 billion, it means he missed out about RM5 billion for Top Glove. Divided by about 8 billion shares, an extra 60+ sens should have been added to the latest TP of RM6.8, making the TP close to RM7.5.

However if you look at the DCF valuation table, the analyst assumed only an annual CAPEX of RM500 million. But Top Glove press release has stated that it “has earmarked RM10 billion for CAPEX over the next 5 years from FY2021 to FY2025”.

In other words, between FY2021 to FY2025, the analyst has underestimated an investment cost of close to RM 7 billion. Converting to present value that was about RM6 billion or about 75 sen per share. These two errors that roughly cancel out one another. The "corrected" TP ends up about 10 sen lower or RM6.7.

But I won’t blame the sell side analysts. This is the industry norm. The is also not restricted to Malaysia. The reason that sell side analysts exist is for brokerages to get their clients to do more trading and generate more commission revenue.

Wonder why the number of buy calls always far outweigh the number of sell call? Besides not offending their investment banking clients (i.e. companies under coverage like Top Glove here), it’s far easier to get more people to trade with buy recommendation than sell recommendation.

That’s why I am cautious when quoting/ using analyst figures when doing my own valuation.

Posted by ooi8888 > 2021-03-10 22:33 | Report Abuse

All the analysts are paid to do the dirty work.

Posted by CJkenho > 2021-03-11 00:32 | Report Abuse

I think in every quarter, the gang of IB tosses a coin to see who gets to be that silly ol'scapegoat that writes silly reports so that they'll have a "convenient story" (on standby) to publish when they need to drive the price down for their warrant's sake.

So this Q happens to be Maybank!!! Congrats MBB :)

Posted by CJkenho > 2021-03-11 00:33 | Report Abuse

Hmmm... actually on second thought maybe MBB wrote that report in rage lahh. Coz Top Glove did dethroned them & took the pole position for the highest PAT in a single quarter in Msian history right? Timing was perfect for a revenge-report.

Posted by bclassinvest > 2021-03-11 10:24 | Report Abuse

The analysts are at it again, increasing their net profit estimation while lowering TP at the same time. The analyst's view from Maybank is very perplexing indeed.
I do agree that INTCO and Bluesail's aggressive expansion plans are a cause of concern but do you really think Topglove is just going to give up its crown?
Any glove manufacturer worth their salt would know that you need to expand production to more than 100b in the next few years. If not, you will lose your market share to INTCO or maybe even Bluesail.
That is exactly what Topglove and Harta are doing now, they are defending their market share. Armed with plenty of cash, I believe they will be able to increase productivity as well with increased robotics application and further automation. If you ask me to choose between INTCO and Topglove, I like my chances with the latter.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2021-03-11 11:10 | Report Abuse

"Such a re-rating, without any material news, can only mean that the analyst has been completely wrong in their work previously due to reasons solely related to their own capabilities."
...
Many investors at i3investor had been wary of these IB analysts' target price for gloves counters since a few months ago. So they stayed away from these counters - or at least didn't add - despite some supporters continuously harping on those TPs, arguing how `cheap' they are. The cautious investors managed to protect their capital during the bad period when gloves were pushed down by short sellers and many investors panicking.

Anyway, I feel counters like TopGlove offer good value now. Never mind if the IB analysts have reduced their TPs, and even with new supply from China and elsewhere. The fact remains that as a business, glove companies will still be in a comfortable position in the coming months. Therefore it's prudent to have a glove counter or two in our portfolio. For the sake of balance.

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-03-11 11:46 | Report Abuse

treack, muk912, Gaussian, YC88, LaoTzeAhSir, Anthem2, observatory, ooi8888, CJkenho, bclassinvest, Mat Cendana, thank you for your comments.

I agree with observatory that one of the main reasons for these "TP cuts" is that the price targets need to be nearer to the actual market price, other than anything else, precisely because that promotes more active trading.

One thing that stands out of course is Maybank's position of course - from markedly bullish to very bearish within a very short span of time. Coincidentally, one of the ITM CWs that expired in end-Feb was issued by Maybank. It might be just a coincidence of course.

Posted by Brutus > 2021-03-11 21:57 | Report Abuse

@Ben Tan, all analyst if I am not mistaken did not report or take into consideration that one of the expansion for TG is to have their own Nitrile plant. They will be able to control their costs much better than other players.
Correct me if I am wrong.

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2021-03-11 23:53 | Report Abuse

After reading all these comments and insights, I think Kossan may be at risk as it is too lazy to act.

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2021-03-12 07:54 | Report Abuse

If good enough then will be kyy lo. He mentioned kps, boom limit up. You all keep talking gloves like sky high, but the price still keep lower. Haiyaa... Read also waste time lo.. can't push up stock. Pandai tiok ho, don't pandai pandai. Heng ong huat arh!!!

Posted by gohkimhock > 2021-03-12 08:11 | Report Abuse

Most of these analysts are below age of 30. Some are even in early 20s. How many of them really know real world battle in stock arena? That's why I trust JP Morgan assessment on the situation more.

Posted by gohkimhock > 2021-03-12 08:12 | Report Abuse

You ask our local analysts where is the nearest Starbucks, they know la.

Posted by Stockisnotfun > 2021-03-12 10:17 | Report Abuse

No one is wrong. Neither do the bank analyst here. As usual, we don't trade based on IB report or your report as well. At the end, this is just each individual bias opinion. Who can really predict the future?

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-03-12 13:46 | Report Abuse

Brutus, supersaiyan3, EatCoconutCanWin, gohkimhock, Stockisnotfun, thank you for your comments.

Brutus, out of the reports I've had access to so far, only Maybank's mentions the NBR plant.

Stockisnotfun, we aren't really discussing predicting the future here. We are rather discussing the validity of some of the assumptions given as justification by the analysts, as well as pondering over justifications that have seemingly not been provided.

Posted by CynicalCyan > 2021-03-13 00:04 | Report Abuse

Good article but misleading title.
Analysts didn't cut TP due to stellar quarter. It was due to other factors.

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-03-13 12:43 | Report Abuse

CynicalCyan, thank you for your comment.

I beg to differ. As you can see from my notes, a number of analysts might have cut their price target because they "roll over" their valuations to some seemingly random future dates. In other words, the re-rating downwards is precisely because of this stellar quarterly results - the great quarter has passed, so the presumption is that hereon after the company loses an enormous part of its present value (at least this is how I understand the "rolling over" effect).

Posted by pjseow > 2021-03-14 08:28 | Report Abuse

Ben Tan, agreed fully with your observations and critique. The IBs downgrade are disappointing despite Topglove management guidance that 2HFY 2021 will be better and 1H earning already hit 5.26 billions even though there was a 2 weeks shutdown which caused 8 % less shipments in.Q2. You rightly pointed out that had the shutdown not occurred, the profit.would have hit 3.1 billions. With topglove guidance, we.should expect 2H total earnings to exceed 6.5 billions . By taking the 1H and divide by 2 as the projected qtrly earnings for Q3 and Q4 is obviiously incorrect. The analysts should upgrade instead of downgrades Topglove .

Posted by stockraider > 2021-03-14 09:48 | Report Abuse

When come to recovery play insas will be the best mah...!!

Its Nta is rm 2.83 per share loh!

Its intrinsic value when inclusive of inari mark to market gain exceed rm 5.00 per share mah...!!

Insas has a net cash exceeding Rm 0.90 per share woh!

When comes to earnings based on half year result insas profits is already rm 148m or eps 22.2 sen loh!

It is anticipated insas can hit eps of 40 sen per share giving pe of 2.1x mah!!

Thus insas is a stock which have both strong earnings of eps of 40 sen & back up with strong intrinsic share value of exceeding Rm 5.00 per share compare with the huge discounted share price of rm 0.875 per share loh!

Thus INSAS IS A SCREAMING BUY loh which u should not missed mah!

JUST jump in b4 too late loh!

The opportunity is now when insas is still wonderfully undervalue mah..!!

The 1st step u must find out got:

1. Got margin of safety factor
2. Got strong Balance sheet factor
3. Got big cash factor
4. Got reasonable div factor
5. Positive earnings factor

That means got 'R 'factor can buy or sailang loh...!!

Insas hathaway is the best ' R ' factor stock 2021.

Don missed this opportunity loh

Posted by Richard123456 > 2021-03-14 09:55 | Report Abuse

imagine, they hold tons of ticket, when price drop and keep promote with buy , will they buy or sell to you？ sooner and later, become hold and then sell will lower and lower TP.
If you follow their recommendations, you burn.

Posted by RainT > 2021-03-20 20:25 | Report Abuse

Thanks for this articles