Posted by Beta Ipoh > 13 hours ago | Report Abuse

Thank's for you. Mr dragon328. u r smart.

Posted by Mabel > 6 hours ago | Report Abuse

Thank you dragon328. You are the reason why I invested in YTL Power...

At current closing RM 4.20 and yesterday collection at RM 3.770, now Mabel can sleep like a baby...

Thank you also to the Short Sellers for pressing the price down..

To Our Success !

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by raymondroy > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse

TQ for the excellent write up dragon328, just a few comments
1) Surprised to see a high reduction in powerseraya contribution, dropping 42% from 2024 to 2032. This si expected but have you also taken into account that RM may further strengthen beyond the 3.5x rate in 1H 2024? It is already at 3.35x as of Aug?
2) Hwo did you estimate barbazon? Furthermore, why do you estimate 290m profit in 2026 and growing every year to 500m in 2032? Surely once the build up is complete..... sales shd take 1-2 yrs to deplete inventories. So why the assumption of repeat sales all the way to 2032?
3) Whats the diff between colocation and AI DW? Whats the probability of hitting the forecast 1b profit in 2026?

Hope my questions will enable us to better refine the forecast for better information dissemination :-) cheers and happy hunting

Posted by dragon328 > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse

@Mabel, congratulations on making good profit out of the mini crisis in YTL Power. Short selling activities on YTLP have been rampant in past 2 weeks with NSP building up to over 18 million shares, and shorties sending troops to spread unfounded bad news about the company. Making things worse is the persistent foreign funds selling though this has eased starting this week.

Under such circumstances, it really takes gut and strong faith to buy into YTLP at RM3.77 almost the lowest point. You only have yourself to thank, I believe. You are cool and calm, something many admire.

Posted by dragon328 > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse

@raymondroy, thanks for the queries which are good for us to discuss and firm up the projections.

First on PowerSeraya earnings, it is inevitable for its generation / retails margin to gradually come off the peak in FY2024 as more new capacity comes onstream, eg. an OCGT of 200-300MW coming in 2025 then 2 units of 600MW CCGT from Keppel and Sembcorp coming in 2026. My base projection assumes that these new units will replace part of Keppel and Sembcorp's older units and electricity demand growth in Singapore is as high as what EMA projects. I may need to do some revision if actual situation turns out to be different from these base case assumptions.

As for FX, I usually do not speculate on FX movements so I just use a base rate of SGD1.00 = RM3.48 which was the average in Q4. Similarly when I first wrote on PowerSeraya 2 years ago, I think I used the prevailing FX then of 3.30. Nobody knows how the FX may move in the future, some predicts ringgit to further strengthen against USD and SGD but I tend to think that a country's currency is always tied to its economic strength in the long run, as evidenced from the decades-long appreciation of SGD against RM. Remember late last year, most people were thinking that RM would drop to RM4.00 to SGD1.00 and RM5.00 to USD1.00 but it stopped somewhere before.

Posted by dragon328 > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse

As for Brabazon property project, the earnings projection is based on the following assumptions and basis:

approved development plan of 6,500 new homes
and 4 million sf of commercial areas may contribute net profit of RM225 million a year
to YTL Power for next 10 years (based on assumed average selling price of GBP275k
per house, total GDV of GDV1.8 billion over 10 years, 25%-30% gross margin and
GBP50m gross profit a year at 25% tax rate), increasing over time to as high as RM600
million as the commercial areas are fully developed and leased out (assuming all 4
million sf of commercial space to be leased out at GBP25-30 psf per month to
generate gross rental income of GBP100-120m/year, deduct 25% of miscellaneous
charges and 25% tax).

The increasing earnings contribution is due to the increasing commercial space for rental income as more commercial properties are developed over the 10 year period.