Posted by hyzam1212 > 2012-12-03 14:22 | Report Abuse

Everybody seems want to strike late

Posted by isupertrader > 2012-12-03 14:52 | Report Abuse

At a glance, perisai is moving sideways. Momentum is south bound but nothing alarming as RSI activity is healthy. In my last review, support gathers stronghold at 1.07. At 1.09 still a good buy as I saw good support in this region.

Posted by ongtkong > 2012-12-03 14:54 | Report Abuse

thanks for sharing your analysis

Posted by isupertrader > 2012-12-03 14:59 | Report Abuse

pleasure all mine ongtkong. Glad to help.

Posted by limsk25 > 2012-12-03 15:25 | Report Abuse

Support prob at 1.05 - but don't be alarmed if it drops low for awhile... transient effect... i still have alot of faith in Perisai moving forward

Posted by ahhmadd76 > 2012-12-03 15:27 | Report Abuse

apa sudah jadi... berat mcm kereta perisai...

Posted by monreyes > 2012-12-03 15:28 | Report Abuse

been waiting since 1.04, missed opportunity to cash in at 1.17,

Posted by usry > 2012-12-03 15:46 | Report Abuse

If this trend follow.. Better we Wait until rm1.00 or 90 cents again..

Posted by ongtkong > 2012-12-03 15:48 | Report Abuse

everyone waiting for year-end sale ? try pchem.

Posted by limsk25 > 2012-12-03 15:49 | Report Abuse

my advice is not to sell, if u still have cash to pickup and to hold, enter and wait... just my thought.. am doing so myself now

Posted by cwkhor > 2012-12-03 16:13 | Report Abuse

Finally, the management is doing something i like. :)
These deals make the business more sustainable, without losing EPS. Good for long term investors like me.

Posted by isupertrader > 2012-12-03 16:21 | Report Abuse

Those who were playing support at 1.12-1.10 level field are selling their shares now.

Posted by reyes430 > 2012-12-03 16:27 | Report Abuse

cwkhor,please further enlighten on your statement of without losing EPS? i dont get it as issue of new shares will cause dilution. Thanks!

Posted by carlo > 2012-12-03 16:33 | Report Abuse

reyes430- hi all. new here but if I may. Dilution is to % of shareholding. What is more important is if the deal if financed by equity i.e. shares, EPS need to be accretive. In short, the issued shares are being utilised to support additional earnings. So although it is dilutive to % of shareholings, more importantly it is not dilutive to EPS. In this case it is accretive which is all that matters.

Posted by usry > 2012-12-03 16:39 | Report Abuse

What i'm understsnd is if the share become dilution..
That means the Fair value will lower and price can be down from current price..

Posted by reyes430 > 2012-12-03 16:49 | Report Abuse

hi carlo, sorry i am still a newbie in investment. what u mean is, even theres new issued share which may dilute the eps but in this case, the acquisition of FPSO unit also increase the earning, so theres no dilution in EPS?

Posted by carlo > 2012-12-03 17:02 | Report Abuse

Hi reyes...in short yes. EPS = earnings per shares. Although there is issuance of shares but if earnings increase on the same pace, then there is not effect to EPS. Similarly, if earnings outpace the issued shares then EPS is accretive and if the reverse, then EPS dilutive. As all deals need to be financed, it typically is an examination of whether to fund through equity or borrowings. When one borrows, earnings are impacted because of the interest charges to the P&L and gearing is increased because of the liabilities to the balance sheet. So its always an examination of what is best for the company, whicy by extension is also best for shareholders. Of course, the best is where the company has cash but that is another different set of considerations. Hope this helps. In short, I think Perisai's management knows what they are doing.

Posted by usry > 2012-12-03 17:11 | Report Abuse

For me is one simple trading philosofy.. If uin doubt. Sell first and if
Still have a faiyj on that stock.. Wait until it stable and buy back..
Just my 2 sents..

Posted by reyes430 > 2012-12-03 17:19 | Report Abuse

Hi Carlo,Thanks so much for your explanation. So in this case, instead of stretching the balance sheet and increase the gearing, the management choose to sell down the stakes and issue new shares to finance the deal,is the management considered good or what? Thanks!

Hi Usry,thanks for your value opinion also. Currently have nil position but would like to follow up on this counter and learn something. :D

Posted by cwkhor > 2012-12-03 18:25 | Report Abuse

reyes430, you may read the reports from CIMB and RHB (RHB just posted it late afternoon), they show the new EPS value after considering dilution, profit lost due to 50% SJR disposal, interest saving, and new profict from 51% of FPSO. (Kenaga report is showing different numbers in FY13, which i'm yet to figure out.)
In summary, the new EPS for FY13 should be remain unchange or slightly better. FY14 should be better...
More importantly, these deals address the net gearing problem in Perisai, which is my biggest concern. I'm accumulating... :)

Posted by reyes430 > 2012-12-03 23:26 | Report Abuse

Thanks cwkhor! Review back, someone has been saying that buying in a downtrend stock is like catching a fallen knife as cheap can easily become cheaper, however our bro kcchong has a different view on it. Perisai is in a short term downtrend,for those with tight capital, its better to enter when price has been stabilized. At what price will be the great support? Do you mind to share? thanks.

Posted by minitrader > 2012-12-04 11:25 | Report Abuse

We can't make quick bucks from this counter under current mkt conditions. We have to go long and knowing the good fundamentals of the stock, buy on weakness. Some of us expect to make quick bucks thru contra. Not always ...In a bull mkt, yes. Not otherwise...My best advice is..buy for long term. Of coz u don't catch a falling knife...but u pick it when it has fallen. When volume is thin, that's the time to accumulate.

Posted by cwkhor > 2012-12-04 11:34 | Report Abuse

HLIB is still optimistic about Perisai.

The completion of the deal is perfect as the shares in the Pipe lay barge will be swapped when the FPSO comes on stream. Assuming margins for the FPSO are the same as the groups average EPS rises 19% and 46% to 11.5sen and 14.8sen in FY13 and FY14, respectively despite the 27% increase in paid-up capital to RM1.1bn This implies a valuation rerating of up to RM1.84 based on unchanged 16x which we believe is justified given higher earnings visibility and potential additional growth from the jack up rig (which is not factored into our forecasts yet).

Share price weakness due to confusing over this deal is a chance to buy.

Posted by minitrader > 2012-12-04 11:41 | Report Abuse

u are right cwkhor. At this juncture, confusion may arise as to the benefits of the new deals. If we go long, we shouldn't worry.

Posted by sixteenblue > 2012-12-04 11:47 | Report Abuse

"Perisai to buy stake in FPSO facility"
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/12/4/business/12406450&sec=business

Posted by minitrader > 2012-12-04 11:53 | Report Abuse

Posted by cwkhor > Dec 3, 2012 11:35 AM | Report Abuse

Positive TP adjustment by IBs:
TA 1.39 (-0.14) - without EOC deal
Maybank 1.40 (no change) - pending clarification from mgmt
HwangDBS 1.35 (+0.15)
HLG 1.55 (-0.05) - without EOC deal
CIMB 1.57 (no change) - pending more details

The TPs can't be achived overnight. Avg TP for the above is 1.45. The analysts are banging on fundamental value of the stock. Technically it's well supported. Even if u give a 10% discount to 1.45, u get 1.30. Still, there's 21% upside to the stock.

Posted by isupertrader > 2012-12-04 12:08 | Report Abuse

Minitrader: on contrary sideways trading is quite possile. Long term trading has become a clique that super wealthy will play. My scope is to short to med range. It has become my strategy movement over years.

Posted by isupertrader > 2012-12-04 12:13 | Report Abuse

Generally from the discussion, trend are not studied merely the assumption of share trend movement but also management style. Perisai has been consistent in that grounds. Cut off gritty details, when a company are in verge of acquiring another company often means that there is a potential business dealings already in place. Thats how a fundamentally sound company will do it. Calculated risk i might say.

Posted by 12dec1960 > 2012-12-04 12:37 | Report Abuse

isupertrader.. Indeed Perisai is consistent.. Prudent n with the right business model..

Posted by isupertrader > 2012-12-04 16:57 | Report Abuse

Away from my chart now. I assume 1.07 support is holding on well...

Posted by cwkhor > 2012-12-05 09:12 | Report Abuse

Alliance Research is recommending STRONG BUY.

Perisai announced their debut into the FPSO market with a proposal to take a 51% stake in Emas Victoria (L) Bhd, which will own the Lewek Arunothai FPSO, from EOC Ltd. The purchase consideration of RM271.8m will be settled via issuance of new shares and sale of 50% stake in the E3 pipe lay barge to EOC. Although near term earnings will be diluted by enlarged share base from the new shares to be issued to EOC and the 10% private placement announced last week, we expect strong earnings growth trajectory will resume from FY14 onwards. As such, we maintain our STRONG BUY as we continue to like the longer term prospect of Perisai while valuation remains undemanding.

Posted by minitrader > 2012-12-05 09:36 | Report Abuse

Most research houses have a BUY/Outperform on Perisai. It's a matter of time for the stock to take off again.

Posted by ahhmadd76 > 2012-12-05 09:39 | Report Abuse

cantik, perisai sudah ringan...

Posted by Wong Yi Shen > 2012-12-05 10:12 | Report Abuse

Isupertrade: your 1.07 support holds true..confirmed by this morning's bounce.

Posted by isupertrader > 2012-12-05 11:08 | Report Abuse

Thanks Wong. Yesterday I analyse about ASUPREM in which I expected good stew brewing. This is one of the good penny stocks in which I like. Today's up btw...

Posted by sheila2 > 2012-12-05 14:52 | Report Abuse

isupertrader, you nailed it on dot with the 1.07 support. Kudos! RSI is moving towards 50%, buy now?

Posted by isupertrader > 2012-12-05 15:17 | Report Abuse

hold for now.

Posted by isupertrader > 2012-12-05 15:18 | Report Abuse

Any "airlines" traders btw?

Posted by ongtkong > 2012-12-05 15:27 | Report Abuse

what's that? "airlines" traders?

Posted by cwkhor > 2012-12-05 15:30 | Report Abuse

big share holder, Lynear Plus has been disposing. any clue?

Posted by Wong Yi Shen > 2012-12-05 15:42 | Report Abuse

maybe wanna get the private placement...0.99 mah..sell at 1.07 then buy at 0.99. Dunno lar, just guessing.

Posted by New Insight Sabah > 2012-12-05 15:42 | Report Abuse

Chartwise, Perisa is in a downtrend. I think it is heading for a free fall if it breaks 1.06 before finding support at 50SMA of 1.035. I have decided to take profit today at 1.07 having bought it at 0.915. I was tempted to sell at 1.16, 1.12 and 1.10 but hesitated until now. Hope I'm right. I'm never good at reading charts.

Posted by minitrader > 2012-12-05 15:58 | Report Abuse

short-term, yes, but primary trend is still up

Posted by Einstein > 2012-12-05 16:06 | Report Abuse

A bit confusing on the recent o&g counters.....go stop go stop

Posted by minitrader > 2012-12-05 16:07 | Report Abuse

i think perisai is forming a new base after the breakout on 16 Nov. Now yoyoing lor to phase out weak holders...

Posted by ahhmadd76 > 2012-12-05 16:47 | Report Abuse

rasanya besok perisai akan melompat

Posted by littleshark > 2012-12-05 16:58 | Report Abuse

So many news bout Perisai.. Anyway im holding 1st

Posted by 1313 > 2012-12-05 17:16 | Report Abuse

Based on the chart, it is testing the resistance at 1.09. The immediate support at 1.05, next support 1.02.

I am still learning, please correct me if I am wrong. TQ! :)

Posted by Einstein > 2012-12-05 17:30 | Report Abuse

1313....is that a celcom, customer service line? Anyway, gd guess but the support cannot be so near

Posted by reyes430 > 2012-12-05 17:33 | Report Abuse

for my opinion, 1.07 now is a strong support. the further support will be pegged at 1.03