simple way of putting it, if i want to offer suitors, i don't raise new shares and dilute currently existing ones for them to come in. Why would suitors want to buy stocks already diluted? that will not make sense to tell them its discounted 10%! to have suitors, you need sweetened deals, not sour ones! hope this can help clarify!
speaking of FA, capital intensive companies are high stakes companies! they bet big! if successful, their price hits the strastophere! if they don't, downside can be very nasty! with today's mindset of "instant" profit or short-termism, market becomes volatile!
perisai you can hold a longer view i think! if they find a suitor, and better yet if its a big boy in the industry, things can be rosy again pretty fast! but somehow i always like Graham's theory of a margin of safety and discounting away all the possible dangers!
Yes Kc loh... indeed oil prices have come off quite abit from the highs of above USD100/barrel. However, with Operation Twist coming to an end this December and QE3 taking over, a weakening USD will result in oil prices moving upwards and we will soon see deepwater wells coming back into business as these are the ones which benefit the most from high oil prices =)
from CIMB: Perisai's proposed private placement to partly fund the construction of jack-up rigs, purchase of 51% of an FPSO facility and sale of a 50% stake in a pipe installation unit will enhance earnings through the ownership of higher-margin assets while keeping gearing in check.
Perisai has proposed a placement of up to 85m new shares or 10% of its paid-up share capital to raise funds, mostly for part-financing of the construction of jack-up drilling rigs. Meanwhile, an announcement by Emas Offshore Construction (EOC) reveals that Perisai plans to 1) acquire a 51% stake in EOC's FPSO facility, Lewek Arunothai, and 2) sell a 50% stake in SJR Marine, which owns a pipelay barge, Enterprise 3, to EOC (see overleaf). EOC is a unit of Ezra (EZRA SP, Outperform), which has a 16.1% stake in Perisai.
We are positive on the placement and stake sale which will help Perisai kill three birds with one stone 1) improve its earnings through the ownership of higher-margin assets, 2) keep its gearing at manageable levels, and 3) facilitate its eventual exit from the pipe installation segment to focus on drilling and FPSO operations (see overleaf). Based on prospective profits, Perisai will sell the stake in SJR Marine at a P/E of 5.5x. While this may not seem attractive, we note that Perisai's acquisition P/E for the stake in Lewek Arunothai is also 5.5x, which is cheap.
2) Perisai's acquisition of 51% equity interest in EOC's FPSO unit named Lewek Arunothai for US$89m (RM271m). The purchase price will be satisfied by 1) the issuance of 145m new Perisai shares, and 2) US$37m proceeds from the sale of 50% of SJR Marine. Assuming an exchange rate of RM3.04 to US$1, the 145m new Perisai shares will be issued at RM1.10/share, which is the weighted average market price for five trading days up to 29 Nov. We understand that the transaction is expected to be completed around mid-2013. Perisai's sale of the 50% equity interest in SJR Marine is slated for completion later at around Aug 2013 to make sure that Perisai is not exposed to conversion and contract risks relating to Lewek Arunothai.
Potential earnings impact We view the developments positively. In one fell swoop, Perisai will gain three high-margin assets (an FPSO facility and two jack-up drilling rigs) without putting too much strain on its balance sheet. As at 30 Sep 2012, net gearing stood at 0.9x. Management caps the net gearing at 2x. Assets that are currently in Perisai's fleet are E3, a mobile offshore production unit (MOPU) and eight marine support vessels. The deal with EOC is particularly sweet because it will allow Perisai to own an asset with a 3+1+1+1 contract in place starting mid-2013 (Lewek Arunothai) and eventually sell an asset for which it would otherwise have to find a contract for after the expiry of the existing 4½-year contract in mid-2013 (E3). Lewek Arunothai will be the production solution at Kamelia. Assuming 1) a daily charter rate of US$250,000, 2) a 35% net margin, 3) 365 utilisation days p.a., and 4) an exchange rate of RM3.04 to US$1, Perisai's 51% stake in the FPSO facility could add RM49.5m to the company's net profit p.a. Imputing Perisai's 10% private placement, acquisition of 51% of Lewek Arunothai and sale of 50% of SJR Marine, we arrive at potential EPS enhancement of 2.8% in FY13 and 3.9% in FY14 (Figure 1). The EPS accretion is not overly exciting because RM73m of the RM84m placement proceeds earmarked for the construction of the jack-up rigs will only be utilised when the first rig is delivered in Jul 2014, 18 months after the expected completion of the placement. Perisai has yet to land a contract for the first jack-up rig but has roped in KCA Deutag as a partner. Headquartered in Aberdeen, KCA operates more than 100 rigs in over 22 countries and employs 8,000 people in Africa, Europe, Russia, the Middle East, the Caspian Sea and Southeast Asia. Assuming 1) a daily charter rate of US$150,000, 2) a 25% net margin, 3) 365 utilisation days p.a., and 4) an exchange rate of RM3.04 to US$1, one rig could add RM42m to Perisai’s net profit p.a., thereby securing substantially more growth for Perisai from FY14.
boleh tahan ma news tu : proposed acquire 51% in Emas Victoris for usd 89m acquire 51% in Victoria Prdctn and proposed dispose 505 in Sjr marine for RM37m ... Hustle you paste Chinese words our Malay frens cannot understand ma! I think not suitable for this forum since many investors here are 1M .. true guys? smiles ...
Issuance of new shares will result in the dilution of current ones. But if you'd look at that in a positive light, it also means Perisai is buying something without taking new/more debt. Let's see how the investment bank analysts view this.
Ahmad76 be patient ok... KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research is maintaining its target price for Perisai Petroleum at RM1.57, which is an upside of 41.4% from the last traded price of RM1.11.
Although we cannot believe 100% in TP at least we have guidance with the IBank TP . Cimb had increased the TP fr 1.40 to 1.57 ...if not mistaken..smiles..
Positive TP adjustment by IBs: TA 1.39 (-0.14) - without EOC deal Maybank 1.40 (no change) - pending clarification from mgmt HwangDBS 1.35 (+0.15) HLG 1.55 (-0.05) - without EOC deal CIMB 1.57 (no change) - pending more details
Am certain Perisai would wanna reward its shareholders too, plus seeing it is not a dividend-issuing counter, am pretty sure the RM1.10 is deliberately set so that those who have faith in it will have a chance to buy-in around that price before further guidance from mgmt is provided to analysts.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
KC Loh
13,701 posts
Posted by KC Loh > 2012-12-01 11:26 | Report Abuse
simple way of putting it, if i want to offer suitors, i don't raise new shares and dilute currently existing ones for them to come in. Why would suitors want to buy stocks already diluted? that will not make sense to tell them its discounted 10%! to have suitors, you need sweetened deals, not sour ones! hope this can help clarify!