see what did i say yesterday..?if fall will fall 10cents only mah.. this only fall little.. only minor loss u people like to create panic & stupid story already! hold will up soon don't worry! don't be anjingz like those 3 be like me with important ethics will not leave fellow shareholders cause if left in future no one will support..!
Posted by polycarp > Mar 1, 2018 03:19 PM | Report Abuse
No need to teach yr uncle Sam how to invest. How many eggs have you to put in so many basket. I have only two. ______________________________________________________________________
Aah? Dear, oh dear. OMG. Stone me!
You also hv two eggs one gah. So, how is Ah Tan going to marry you then. Since AFAIK he also has two eggs. Oh well, you're going to make a nice couple with four eggs then,
How ? As i said before the management made a big mistake for stopping the oil field dev work. When oil below 50..the.then chilaka chan MD. Said no need to work. he think ramp up oil production is like press the button to switch on the light..
Now die la since jun 2017 till now manage to increase how many tong ? Diu nia sing.
Wa sikalang mau tanya la..itu oil field really is oil field ga ? Tala oil kasi rukar tanam pisang lor.
Sumatec. Change biz to jual pisang . Mentah ala. Goreng pun ala.
HB GLOBAL LIMITED fly from 9 sen to 28 sen. Nothing is impossible. Sell now for what? Just hold got chance to go up. People all buying at 7 sen....big buying....6.5 sen big long queue. Cannot get also.
It is up to you to believe SUMATEC will RALLY to 25sen at least soon. 4QFY17 results is expected to be announced today. I believe the share price of SUMATEC will rally until early of March.
This 4QFY17 results is important to indicate another strong earnings in FY18 and onwards, and this will help the share price to reflect my FY18 current valuation of 56sen.
My FY18 TP of 56sen remains intact, based on my FY18 DCF assumption and has not fully reflected in the share price yet.
Remember that as long as oil prices maintain at and above USD60/b, my FY18 valuation remains unchanged at 56sen because my average oil price forecast is at USD60/b and in fact, poised for more upside but then could be offsett by weaker USD.
So far, oil prices has become a push factor for SUMATEC. According to the Company, they can make net of USD30-35/b even though oil prices at USD50/b.
The rally will be on the back of its potential exponential earnings episodes. It will start with sequential strong 4Q earnings. I mean strong quarter-on-quarter results. I don't expect much on year-on-year because the Company is on recovery trend. Quarterly, its financial results has started to turnaround in 3QFY17.
What is its Cash from its operations? RM 1 BILLION LOH..!!
Minus the tax to get its net cash ftom operations. NO TAX BUT EVEN INPUT TAX THE CASHFLOW AT RM 760M IS ALSO VERY SUBSTANTIAL MAH..!!
Minus the capex from this net cash from operations to obtain the FCFF (free cash flow to firm). U MUST UNDERSTAND THE ONE TIME ...CAPEX OF RM 760M TO UPGRADE HENGYUAN IS GOING TO BE USED FOR NEXT 20 YRS MAH...!! COMPARE TO PETRONAS RM 64 BILLION AND PETRON RM 14 BILLION, HENGYUAN IS HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LOH..!!
To derive its FCF to shareholders: Minus the net interest payments and payments to minority interest (if any. In HY this is 0) from the FCFF. WHAT IS THE INTEREST COST TINY LOH ?? NOT EVEN RM 60M PA COMPARE T0 THE FREECASHFLOW LOH...!!
What is Hengyuan's FCF? THE FREECASHFLOW IS RM 760M PA LOH...!!
Additional notes:
1. Its cash from operations though positive in recent years faces uncertainties (due to nature of its business as guided by the management). 2017 is possibly its best performance year and not sustainable. TAKE NOTE OF THIS IMPORTANT HIGHLIGHTS LOH...!!
"HENGYUAN IS IN THE HIGH VOLUME, PREDICTABLE & STABLE CONSUMER BUSINESS LOH....!! ITS BUSINESS VERY STABLE & PREDICTABLE LIKE NESTLE LOH...!! BUT NESTLE PE 40X BUT HENGYUAN LESS THAN 4X...MEANS VERY VERY BIG INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY, U SHOULD NEVER MISSED LOH...!!"
HENGYUAN HAS SUPERB EARNINGS FOR CONSECUTIVE 3 YRS LOH...!! ITS LATEST EARNINGS EPS RM 3.40 EXCEED, THE MOST EXPENSIVE CO IN KLSE NESTLE EPS ONLY RM 2.75 LOH...!!
2. Now that it is profitable, tax will need to be paid, reducing its FCFF and FCF relative to its tax free year (due to losses). EVEN PUT IN NOTIONAL TAX , HENGYUAN FREECASHFLOW STILL EXCEED RM 760M.
3. Its capex is huge relative to its earning, its CFO, its netCFO, its FCFF and FCF. Earnings maybe high in the income statement but FCFF and FCF are correspondingly much lower than earnings due to high capex. LETS LOOK AT CAPEX RM 760M V FREECASHFLOW RM 760M (NET OF NOTIONAL TAX }, THE INVESTMENT PAYBACK IS HIGHLY PROFITABLE ONLY 1 YR LOH..!! NO WONDER THE BANKS ARE EAGER TO LEND LOH..!!
4. Its debt levels are high. Companies with high debts are "riskier". Interest rates have bottomed and should be trending up. 1.5 billion debt at 4% interest should mean about 60m interest incurred yearly. This should reduce its FCF too. In good times, debts maybe manageable and in bad times, it cuts deep into the flesh. VERY HIGH MEH ?? WITH MORE THAN RM 1 BILLION CASH IN HAND PLUS FREE CASHFLOW ABOUT RM 760M AFTER TAX, THE EXPOSURE OF BORROWING OF RM 1.4 BILLION IS TINY LOH...!!
The share price of Hengyuan will be determined by its FCF generated over the future years. Companies with consistent, growing and high FCF should enjoy a higher intrinsic value compared to those wirh volatile and inconsistent FCF. CORRECTLOH WITH STRONG FREECASHFLOW OF RM 1 BILLION AND AFTER TAX RM 760M, THE FAIR VALUE OF HENGYUAN SHOULD BE RM 22.OO TO RM 42.00 LOH...!! REMEMBER HENGYUAN PE IS LOW 4X V PETDAG 16X AND NESTLE PE 42X, THERE ARE BIG RERATING UPSIDE HOR HENGYUAN LOH...!!
REMEMBER THE STORY OF SAD ADMIRER OF 3iii AHMOI UNABLE TO AFFORD TO SEND HER SON TO AUSTRALIA TO STUDY BCOS LISTENING TO 3iii SELLING HER HENGYUAN AT RM 3.66 LOH..!! AHMOI BEST FRIEND AHFAH HANG ON TO HENGYUAN DUMB DUMB, TODAY BASED ON HER PROFIT, IS ABLE TO FINANCE HER SON STUDY IN AUSTRALIA, JUST BASED ON HENGYUAN INVESTMENT ALONE LOH...!!
DO NOT LET 3iii TO DO THIS TO U, LIKE WHAT HAPPEN TO AHMOI LOH...!! DO NOT LET PONDANS....PONDAN U LOH...!! Why be so stressed? Rather than be abusive, they should just sell down to the point they can sleep well. Perhaps, greed and fear makes them foolish in their postings. Rather than attacking the facts, when they choose to abuse those who posted contrary to their views, they looked stupid and have lost the moral high ground in this discussion. OF JUST REMEMBER LOH....IF U ADJUST FOR TAX THE FREECASHFLOW OF HENGYUAN IS RM 760M OR NORMALISED FREECASHFLOW OF RM 2.5O LOH...!!
CONSIDERING HENGYUAN YIELD ON FREECASHFLOW WILL BE RM 2.50 DIV BY SHARE PRICE RM 15.10 GIVING A YIELD OF 16.5% THIS IS CREDIBLE CONSIDERING;
NESTLE, DLADY AND PETDAG ONLY ACHIEVE FREE CASHFLOW YIELD OF ABOUT 6% PA LOH....!!
HENGYUAN FREECASHFLOW YIELD IS MORE THAN 2.5X STRONGER THAN NESTLE, DLADY AND PETDAG LOH...!!
GOING FWD U COULD EXPECT INCREASING DIV GOING FWD DUE TO ITS STRONG CASHFLOW LOH....!!
Don't blame this counter, many oil counters is posted crazy losses qtr too!! Who wants oil price down so many years since 2014 and caused many oil counters dump??
all counter dia kasi signal ... all turn kiri punya signal
aiyooo ammaaa appaaa
DS , anai anai second attempted mau bikin koloni
pelan pelan kayuh itu ratu anai anai cakap
ihihihih
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Posted by JoshuaMS7 > 2018-03-01 14:56 | Report Abuse
hong kong keeps rebounding from -300 to +20 !! now is the time to collect? hehe