Rileks, harga minyak mentah sedunia memang jatuh teruk, tapi yang jatuh 306% jadi $-37.63 setong tu cuma harga bagi "West Texas Intermediate" (WTI) keluaran US.
Untuk minyak Brent (keluaran Shell UK), harga masih positif, dalam $25. Harga minyak "Tapis" keluaran Malaysia pun masih $28, jatuh 1.7% je.
Minyak mentah ni macam kurma juga. Lain tempat lain keluaran, walaupun semua dikenali sebagai kurma. Ajwa tu keluaran Madinah, Deglet Noor Algeria, Medjool dari Morocco. Kualiti pun lain-lain.
Minyak mentah pula, selain WTI dan Brent, ada juga ESPO (Rusia), Urals (Rusia), Maya (Mexico), Minas (Indonesia) dan macam-macam lagi. Keluaran Malaysia selain "Tapis" ada juga "Bintulu Condensate", "Miri" dan lain-lain. Kualiti berbeza-beza ikut kandungan sulfur ("sweet" atau "sour") dan graviti ("heavy" atau "light").
Minyak WTI ni "sweet" dan "light", ramai suka beli, sebab tu harganya dijadikan "benchmark" dan dilaporkan dalam berita setiap hari bersama-sama Brent. Tapi harga WTI tak mewakili semua minyak yang ada di pasaran.
Yang lebih penting, kita kena faham minyak mentah ni didagang pakai "futures" atau kontrak ke hadapan. Katakan kau nak stok minyak pada Mei 2020, kau kena order semasa April.
Minyak mentah ni pembeli dia adalah syarikat-syarikat pemprosesan minyak. Diorang tak beli on the spot tapi beli in advance pakai "futures" supaya boleh manage risiko perubahan harga.
Yang jadi negatif ni adalah kontrak untuk penghantaran Mei. WTI ni bersifat "physical delivery", kau order untuk Mei, minyak tu secara fizikal sampai kat kau selaku pemegang kontrak Mei.
Gila apa, time-time ni siapa nak pakai minyak. Stok minyak masih berlambak sebab hampir satu dunia masih dalam lockdown. Kereta tak leh jalan, kapal terbang tak leh terbang, nak buat masak pun tak boleh walaupun "sweet" konon.
Jadi, disebabkan kontrak untuk Mei 2020 akan expire pada esok waktu tempatan US (21 April 2020), orang just lepaskan kontrak tu tak kisah apa harga. Better rugi duit kontrak dari minyak tu hantar kat kilang kau. Sebab tu harga jatuh ke negatif.
Kalau Brent tak jadi macam tu sebab dia boleh "roll over", tak nak kontrak Mei boleh jual ganti dengan kontrak Jun. Sebab tu tak ada masalah yang sama.
Tapi harga kontrak WTI untuk Jun sebenarnya masih OK, masih di paras $20, dan akan naik selepas itu sebab minggu lepas negara OPEC (yang diketuai Saudi) dan bukan OPEC (seperti Rusia dan US) dah capai persetujuan potong bekalan sebanyak 9.7 juta tong sehari (10% daripada jumlah keluaran dunia) untuk bulan Mei dan Jun.
Harga minyak ditentukan oleh supply dan demand, kalau harga jatuh sebab demand jatuh, maka negara-negara pengeluar minyak volunteer untuk cut supply supaya naikkan harga balik.
Tapi apa pun, berita minyak negatif ni adalah good reminder bahawa "the era of oil is coming to an end".
Dan untuk tahun-tahun akan datang, "cheap oil" akan jadi "new normal".
Akan ada banyak syarikat-syarikat minyak kecil yang lingkup setahun dua ni dan dibeli oleh syarikat-syarikat besar.
Macam dulu pasaran minyak dikuasai oleh "Seven Sisters" (BP, Shell, SoCal, Gulf Oil, Texaco, Exxon, Mobil), selepas kejatuhan harga minyak 1980-an tinggal jadi Four Sisters saja: SoCal, Gulf Oil dan Texaco bergabung jadi Chevron (pemilik Caltex), Exxon dan Mobil bergabung jadi ExxonMobil (pemilik Esso).
Dulu harga minyak mahal sebab minyak dulu scarce resources. US sampai nak berperang dengan Iraq untuk dapatkan stok minyak. Now korang bagi minyak free kat US pun belum tentu diorang nak. Lambakan minyak tu yang jadi harga negatif tu.
Sejak zaman Obama (2009-2017), US mula menghasilkan shale oil untuk ganti pergantungan kepada minyak petroleum, dan sekarang US adalah pengeluar minyak terbesar di dunia. Shale oil ni punya supply almost limitless, tak macam petroleum sekali gali habis. So basically harga minyak tak akan kembali ke zaman kegemilangannya lagi.
Sebab tu Saudi semua kena longgarkan cara hidup konservatif diorang untuk tarik pelaburan asing.
Brunei pun mula kena berfikir pasal "diversification" (pempelbagaian) ekonomi. "Oil is a curse". Kebergantungan kepada minyak bukan saja lambatkan negara jadi negara industri jadi negarta maju, malah ia akan menggugat kelangsungan hidup negara di zaman new normal.
i believe the negatives have been priced in at this price. to answer your question, in the near future we can expect car sales to drop, but share price wont drop alrdy
u can try estimating the eps of next quarter too, next quarter covers jan,feb,march, and proton made big sales on jan and feb, analyst says those sales are enough to cover march mco slowdown
Once MCO over, proton will launch it x50 model . estimate price will be rm75k - rm85k , might be lower with current economy buying power. question is when MCO be lifted ?
MCO extended. Factories closed another 2 weeks. Possibly till Raya, which is the peak selling month for cars. Proton, Honda, Isuzu, DefTech, Pekan & other parts manufacturing, Education division, Property all shut. Only Pos Malaysia, Bank Muamalat & Puspakom will be in operation. Expected a loss making year.
5 May, Kenanga Research released an updated TP for DRBHCOM. (MP, TP 1.40)
Valuation basis: SoP Valuation (implying PER of 24x, on FY20E EPS)
The share price has surged 18% since our last OP call in strategy report dated 2nd April 2020. With the extension of MCO until May 12th, there were no sales recorded for April 2020, which could negatively impact its 1HCY2020 performance. Thus, we downgrade it to MP from OP with a lower TP of RM1.40 from RM1.90. Proton X70 CBU was rolled out on 12th December 2018, and the CKD version (RM4k-5k cheaper than CBU) was rolled out on 12th February 2020, in between the launching of face-lifted existing models’ variants.
For 2H20, Proton will launch Proton X50 (Geely Binyue). Proton recorded higher CY19 sales at 100,183 units (+56%) and is targeting stronger 2020 at 132k units (+32%), while Honda continued to record weak sales at 85,418 units (-17%) due to stiff competition from local carmakers. Nevertheless, with the MCO in effect and the ensuing economic contraction, Proton sales could be negatively affected and may not achieve its target.
Good chance to collect more. Low interest rate, good for Proton. Because of Covid, more people want to have personal car rather than expose to risk in public transport. DRB Hicome stock will fly.
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ImFromTheFuture
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Posted by ImFromTheFuture > 2020-04-20 21:58 | Report Abuse
so you guys are on the same side. chill