their retail segment may be not good for April and May because of volatile oil price. Next QR may be not as pretty. However, long term this is a fine stock!
If you are disappointed with recent price movement, read this http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/124105.jsp My sifu 心法!心法战胜一切内心恶魔! May we have peace in mind and let the good results reflect themselves in share price for future!
if u look at EV/FCF, you will realise how cheap Petron is, even when compared to other so called cashcows like highway operators. commodity biz is more volatile but still the valuations are too cheap to ignore
dividend just around the corner .. i just want to simulate a case .. if one buy at rm8 and receive rm0.22 div , the price will be rm7.78 .. suregain , ngam ngam your entry price .. :)
whereas how much will it be value, I guess it is very subjective, and it depend on how optimistic about the future earning. Let say if Petronm FY2017 EPS around to$1.10 to $1.20 (which they have to earn another $0.70 ~ $0.80 for the next 3 quarters) I guess conservatively u can apply PE of 8 for it.
Whereas the Free Cash Flow, I hope this FY can get $320-$340 mils.
just be noted that q1 2017 crude oil price is relatively high (ard usd54) and now on-going q2 2017 crude oil price not doing good, as of now avg price ard usd51-52 if i no wrong, might be lower if current trend persist
in their report did mention that if too drastic/volatile changes of crude oil price is no good for them, affected them quite, just sharing and something to take note on
for example...in the month of March17...the average inventory value already dipped to 46USD/barrel ma...
and say....at the end June reporting period price went up very high say to USD60...that means they paid so much extra money to buy this oil...but selling price is still very low - not yet adjusted, so they have sell at a loss mah...
i am interested to know the batch size of crude they buy at the market (is it periodic at fixed interval or based on procurement department's judgement) and how they mitigate stock losses/gains....
how do they see the demand for the new refinery products...what made them go for this - fundamental reason
what is the sustainable margins of refinery (impact of low price of crude versus high price)...
there may be some experts attending whom u may be able to dig some info...
paperplane2016, I think the result should be fine as long as crude oil above $50. February 41 cents eps is based on crude oil price at $50. 逍遥子, remember to call me when you see me, I have to treat you a coffee.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
probability
14,490 posts
Posted by probability > 2017-05-30 16:07 | Report Abuse
may be close green today