Posted by Halite > 2018-01-20 14:24 | Report Abuse

WB : WHEN YOU SEE THE ROBIN , SPRING IS OVER

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-20 14:32 | Report Abuse

Now do you still see nothing will happen to petronm
but , if you still can not
then look at Jaks ,
the blind also can see clearly that Jaks had changed from "nobody want" to "many people want"
you will surprise to see ,once the expansion has started,
KYY will join in to write good article to teach us "invest with good business sense "

Posted by pjseow > 2018-01-20 14:35 | Report Abuse

Ebita of $ 600 million per year with $ 3.5 billion investment give a return of 17 % . For those funds which only gets a return of less than 10 % per year might be interested to invest . 17 % is equivalent to a PE of 5.88 which is even lower than the current Petronm PE of 8.5 at yesterday price of RM 13.20 . If the Analysts felt that Petronm business deserved a PE of 12.5x , the investment of $ 3.5 billion to generate future income
of $ 600 million per year is worth the money .

Posted by Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes > 2018-01-20 14:39 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-20 14:46 | Report Abuse

I talk with fact and data
No expansion, no growth
Who want to put money foever in a no growth company
But the market operators always like to create fear to depress the price before they sing it is a good buy
Any expansion for hengyuan other than crack spread volatility

Posted by pjseow > 2018-01-20 14:57 | Report Abuse

Assuming the current Petronm do not want to borrow to fund such a huge upgrade and expansion but offer 1 billion new shares at RM 14 per share .
The total number of shares will be 270 million + 1 billion = 1.270 billion shares . With the earning of $ 600 million or 2.4 billion ringgit per year , the eps is 189 s . By then Petronm has the state of the art refinery + more than 600 petrol kiosks which sells the highest grade premium products . With a PE of 12.5 , this translates into RM 23.6 per share , an upside of more than RM 10 from yesterday price . The assumption is that there will be re investment tax allowances for many years .

Posted by KL Tneoh > 2018-01-20 14:58 | Report Abuse

Just sharing my view :

1) the $14 Billions expansion is not only refinery capacity addition, one of the key factor is Petro Chemical. This will be the full integrated refinery. Base on the my rough estimation, out of the US$600 millions EBITDA mentioned in the report, around US$300 mils will come from refinery, retail around US$100 mils & the rest of US$200 mils will be from Petrol Chemical. Petrol Chemical is a very lucrative business, that is why PChem & LCTitan are worth so much.

2) Funding of this 14 Bils, most likely it will be combinations of private placement + loans + cash JV (very likely) + cash call.

Short term very unlikely there will a right issue, cause

- Petron Corp is currently holding 73.39% of PetronM, if they do a right issue any mishaps of shareholding % (some shareholders did not pick up the right), it will trigger MO if the holding touch 75%. And if the right is call Petron Corp got to come up a lot of cash too, which they are short too.

- Petron Corp is short of funding at the moment too, they will list a US$350 mils bond at Philippine at this coming 19/1/2018, the purpose for the funding is to redeem part of the US$700 mils bond listed at HKSE which is going to mature this year. They will apply another $700 mils bond listing at SGX for the remaining redemption later this year.

- Petron Corp is just secured another huge loan for Philippine refinery upgrade for 2018.

So, personally I think if the US$14 B expansion is go ahead then very likely there will be a private placement come first (funding + dilution purpose) + loan + JV (with such a important enery business , wouldn’t EPF or Khazanah want a piece of it ?), then only right issue will be call.

Of course the expansion had another side of story too, at least short term dividend payout ratio will be affected.

Anyway just my personal view, I might be wrong.

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-20 15:48 | Report Abuse

Kl Tneoh,

Thanks

Posted by pjseow > 2018-01-20 16:20 | Report Abuse

Thanks Tneoh for your opinion.

Posted by Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes > 2018-01-20 16:22 | Report Abuse

Next 14

Posted by LogicTrading > 2018-01-20 16:41 | Report Abuse

KL Teoh must have talked to manegement d, so deep analysis one. Maybe he was on the board room too.

Anyway, we all must thank him a lot for this info and foresight which make me wanted to add more by selling off all my properties to sailang on this cash cow with sound expansion plan to be completed on such a short period, i.e. only 2 yrs for a huge 14 bil spending.

I love it and will spend the whole of this weekend to check how much funding I'm able to raise on the shortest possible time as we dun have much time left before the share price shoots over 15/16 or KYY or OTB or Fred Tham come on board BIG WAY !

Posted by KL Tneoh > 2018-01-20 17:13 | Report Abuse

I m just sharing info only, and I have been holding this counter for 2 yrs plus hence I had gather some useful info along the line.

Posted by LeeFoundation > 2018-01-20 17:27 | Report Abuse

Surely holding Petronm is on the right track for more wealth accumulation.

TP from our side is super bullish up till RM25/=, but just need to have high level of endurance along the way.

Adding is our focus at this moment.


Good luck all !

Posted by goongsokaro > 2018-01-20 19:08 | Report Abuse

Overbought. Correction come Monday

Posted by bursaman > 2018-01-20 19:48 | Report Abuse

I'm still underbought

Posted by Kawkaw > 2018-01-20 21:56 | Report Abuse

Anything goes up slighly...you claimed overbought...do you know now to analysy chart or not..
Go ..study ...n .sleep

Posted by phankheefei > 2018-01-20 22:42 | Report Abuse

Can I know the target price for cm?

Posted by phankheefei > 2018-01-20 22:42 | Report Abuse

Actually how to estimate those warrant tp

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 10:10 | Report Abuse

Kl Tneoh,
I ready appreciate your effort to gather some useful information about the 14b expansion to clear the doubt and fear

A gentle reminder to my good friend Probability,
Please do not use a general self construed stetatement about the expansion to create confusion here. I don't see your ligic why it is good for hengyuan but a doom for petronm since both hengyuan and petronm enjoy good profit from refinery. Please use fact and data to support your claim. Do not forget besides refinery petronm still enjoy strong and stable income from reatiling and petrol chemicals. With the expansion we see the cpmpany will grow even more stronger. More than 3 times as said by the CEO
A sincere advice from your good friend, me. Join us now while it is still cheap to switch

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 10:14 | Report Abuse

If still prefer gamnling in hengyuan rather than investing in petrom for long term consistent profit.
Then me, as your friend, can only say Good Luck to you

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 10:39 | Report Abuse

OTB and stockraider are already here
KYY already hinted he regreted that he did not sell. Stockraider who is the strongest preacher of dumb dumb hold and high TP also let go
Very soon many of our good friends including alex, pang, demusang.... may be later KYY when he has cldar his position, will join in
What are you waiting for?
Why joining the crowd in hengyuan to slaughter the newbies who just shouting everyday "gap up tomorrow" and "huat" nothing else.
A good sign?

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 10:51 | Report Abuse

Did you see we shout huat here?
Did you see we shout gap up tomorrow here
No!
Why we did not do that?
We are value investors
We do our homework well
We are not anxious to gain fast money
We know if we tell the truth, do not misleading others, without creating confusion, then there is no reason we can't win BIG MONEY
so we share fact and data NOT shouting or cursing like many of you did in hengyuan.

Posted by bursaman > 2018-01-21 10:57 | Report Abuse

Haha, but guess our dearest friend probability is juz expressing his concern based on the proposed plan.

I'm pretty sure Petronm management will know what to do and how to hedge the current biz/profitability given they are all talented managers and experienced industry players.

If the price adjusts lower along the way due to this reason or other unjustified factors, I'm confident to see more value investors plus fund managers to grab the buying opportunities ahead of the expansion plan which is ultimately aimed to boost earning growth.

After all, expansion is also an indirect reflection management is constantly making efforts to ensure shareholders' value is enhanced.

Bear in mind that, there are not too many low pe, continuos profitable company, zero debts and strong net cash companies like Petronm to pick and add into one's portfolio from our Bursa.


Last but not least, volumes lately have been not too large hovering around 2 mil or sometimes very much less, another sign many bought and hold tight for higher pe and at least some dividend if not higher payout due to expansion reason.

I have been sleeping like a baby every night for holding this counter for the last 8 years and is extremely happy to see the management competence being able to drive the company share from as low as 3 to as high as 15.

Wishing all a happy weekend !

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 11:09 | Report Abuse

Most important
We believe

INTAN IS FOREVER an INTAN
shout or no shout still an INTAN

Butu Arang is still Batu Arang
Shouting may increase its price higher but still a batu arang nanti

Conclusion

When investing into a good stock like petronm, you save your breath to shout like many doing in pasar malam

Posted by Vince Sinclair > 2018-01-21 12:10 | Report Abuse

It looks like the people on this forum are more deluded and hallucinatory than HY forumers. Don't kid yourself. The RM14B investment would definitely weigh on Petronm share price for a few years. Be prepared to ride out the price stagnation (if you're really lucky to have just price stagnation) for a few years (consider your opportunity cost).

To the person who said HY forum is more like a gambling den, aren't you equally blinded by self-denial on the massive capex that Petronm is going to incur? Yes, growth MAY come, but not immediately. It MAY come after several years. In the mean time, don't kid yourself by thinking there won't be any effect on Petronm share price. Such a massive capex will be accompanied by PLENTY of uncertainties. If you think HY is a gamble, Petronm is an even more dangerous gamble.

You should serisouly ponder, between Petronm and HY, which is more risky now?

Posted by MayBee > 2018-01-21 12:26 | Report Abuse

Silly to always look at opportunity cost.

In life, you tend to lose more opportunities than winning.

Don't be too calculative and you are those penny wise but pound foolish idiot, and dun ever act like you are a mature adult ！

Posted by MayBee > 2018-01-21 12:28 | Report Abuse

And why waste time telling people abt this concern here ? Aren't you not maximizing you opportunity cost ?

I will not comment any more idiot

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 12:52 | Report Abuse

Sinclair,

2 simple questions for you to think

1. Does Hengyuan has money to do expansion?

2. What is the meaning of sour grape?

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 12:53 | Report Abuse

May be you can think well so i help you

1. Hengyuan has no cash but has s lot of debt

2. sour grapes
ˌsaʊə ˈɡreɪps/
phrase of sour
1.
used to refer to an attitude in which someone adopts a negative attitude to something because they cannot have it themselves.

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 12:58 | Report Abuse

Another simple question for you to think

Price is not you said, so can you fix the market price?

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 13:02 | Report Abuse

A good knowledge for you to learn
You has created a gambling den in hengyua to stir up the sentiment is short live
Very soon people will start cursing you because you run faster than anybody

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 13:07 | Report Abuse

Carry on to share your view more
I am willing to enlighten you if i find what you said not so right. I will praise you if you do not say the white is black or black is white

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 13:22 | Report Abuse

So your logic is something like this

Manufacturing does not need to build more factories to increase production and earning even there is good demand

Construction does not need to get more tenders as expansion need money, sp better not

Concessions company should not get more highway to collect tols, need billions ringgit to build.hoghway, so don't do

Do you not see this is the message you conveyed to the whole world.

Correct me if you think what i said is not right

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 13:26 | Report Abuse

Mind you, petronm expansion just takes 2 years not 20 years

What opportunity cost are you talking about

You should say like what wb said

When you see the robin, the spring is over

Posted by RedGreen > 2018-01-21 13:27 | Report Abuse

Agreed with many sifus here. A management who is working on an expansion is a forward looking good management.
For purpose of investing. This is a right company to invest.
Look at Topglove, the more they expand, (including borrow to acquire) the higher is the share price.

So, Petronm is good.
I will hold it.
Add if those gambler sell down. I think in 3-4 years, can make a lot of money.

Posted by khuani > 2018-01-21 15:08 | Report Abuse

https://www.msn.com/en-my/money/topstories/genting-group-tops-list-of-cash-rich-companies/ar-AAuV54T

Good news to petronm share holders. Petronm came up number 35 in list for rich cash company.

Posted by helloworld123 > 2018-01-21 15:14 | Report Abuse

Don't know much abt the refinery business but although crack margin is lower, the retail profit of selling petrol to consumers is higher and so petronm should have an edge over hengyuan, imo.

Posted by alanthamkw > 2018-01-21 16:18 | Report Abuse

alanthamkw Only the cash rich and intelligent value investors are here to stay for long term.


The poorer ones are no way to be near for even very short term (2-3 weeks).

Pls reconsider before coming here to give shallow and shorted sighted comments,

Those comments from these category of forumers may make themselves look so dumb and not suitable or having the high level of IQ required to participate in Petronm.

Posted by Apabagus > 2018-01-21 17:10 | Report Abuse

Halite is just a troll me notice.Piss off halite.You dun own this forum.

Posted by Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes > 2018-01-21 17:18 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 17:35 | Report Abuse

Apbagus ,

Am I your father ?

you had make me feel that I am your somebody very important

if that is not the case , then you should improve the way you talk




Posted by Apabagus > Jan 21, 2018 05:10 PM | Report Abuse

Halite is just a troll me notice.Piss off halite.You dun own this forum.

Posted by Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes > 2018-01-21 18:09 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/11/20/publicinvest-initiates-coverage-on-petron-with-outperform-call/

Posted by Vince Sinclair > 2018-01-21 18:17 | Report Abuse

MayBee "Silly to always look at opportunity cost." OMG! This is such a silly statement! Everything that we do in life has an opportunity cost attached to it.

"Petron refinery expansion seen completed by 2020 - By Lenie Lectura - January 1, 2018"

The key word here is "seen". There's no guarantee that it will be completed by 2020. Anyhow I hope it does for the benefit of Petronm investors.

To those who are offended by my earlier post, please accept my apology.

It seems that some Petronm forumers are more extreme than some HY forumers. Hehe!

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 18:34 | Report Abuse

Vince Sinclair,

We accept your apology

Everybody makes mistake.
It is ok
Good to hear you get have learnt from your mistake

Posted by pjseow > 2018-01-21 18:47 | Report Abuse

Let's not quarrel but to make money together . Both HY and Petronm has its strength and weakness . The fact is that whenever HY goes up ,PEtronm will move in sync and vice versa . Based on past records , both PEtron and HY acquired Esso and Shell with good prices . I supposed the management of both companies are not stupid .THey made good judgements. Petronm was covered by three analysts who recommend a buy with target prices of RM14.50 to RM 16.50 . THe analysts had access to Petronm management and gathered sufficient information . As for HY , I hope the stock analysts will start gathering information from HY management and provide a more accurate information plus able to put a target price so that the sifus can compare notes . To value a stock , there are a few aspects to consider instead of PER ,DCF ,ROE , cash flow alone.

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 19:07 | Report Abuse

Pjseow,
Sometimes quarrel is unavoidable when someone trying to distort the picture or starting a personal attack.

Posted by Apabagus > Jan 21, 2018 05:10 PM | Report Abuse

Halite is just a troll me notice.Piss off halite.You dun own this forum.

Posted by john0909 > 2018-01-21 20:50 | Report Abuse

i dunno man...if u ask me... buy a bit of hengyuan for trading purposes ok la... buy alot of hengyuan share and hold it i really scare ler... bcoz things are really too unpredictable (if u stay in stock market long enuf u will understand what i say) especially on hengyuan ler..... if 1 quarter of negative eps hengyuan terus can tapao... terus limit down also possible ler... u can check back their past history result yourself la... the closest example is their recent 2q fy2017... if not bcoz of good crack spread and thats a minor maintenance, that quarter also dunno can get negative eps or not, i no say i right la i might be wrong la.... really scare la.... some analysts here sharing good and very details info about refinery industry which is good la... but in my opinion better dont fully trust their analyse la.... after all they are still consider "outsiders" of hengyuan ler... unless u tell me they work in hengyuan know insider news of result then ok la...
the risk is really high man for me la... but hengyuan definitely a really good stock for trading buy ler.... bcoz keep goreng and goreng.... but hold long term i scare die la... i not dare la really sorry....

Posted by oldeagle > 2018-01-21 20:55 | Report Abuse

I share bro john0909 worries.....................so how abt Petronm not scared ??

Posted by Halite > 2018-01-21 21:25 | Report Abuse

John,

That is not only your worry,
It is the worry of many prudent investors here

Posted by john0909 > 2018-01-21 21:37 | Report Abuse

ohn0909 oldeagle I share bro john0909 worries.....................so how abt Petronm not scared ??
21/01/2018 20:55

bro.. petronm i also scare but just not too scare like hengyuan ler... after all petronm share price (as per past few months history) swing together with hengyuan... just not that crazy and volatile like hengyuan la....

maybe should say less worry la (bcoz i still scare la to be honest, maybe buy what stock also will scare la haha)
1. bcoz worst case scenario petronm still giving out dividend la... for me div is the only "solid and real" things i can have instead of those like capital gain la....
2. petronm fundamental.... for me la... i really like petronm net cash position now (zero debt)... ok la i noted that for hengyuan their stock worth really alot and get "consider" that to clear off their debt bla bla bla... but for me la... as long as u not REALLY paid off the debt talk all this is useless for me la lol... then the cash flow power lor... then i like management de direction and planning... bcoz i personally really appreciated so much their effort to "create" a stable and consistent earning in such volatility environment especially in refinery industry.... they are in conservative way of manage which i personally think is good la in such industry.... i ok la personally if u ask me... i dont need a bombastic result for 1 quarter then so scare for what happen to next quarter result ler....
3. petronm business model lor.... well if we all know petronm got retail (stable and predictable earning business) and also refinery lor.... any bad things happen at least they got their retails business to support lor... u can see lor... now retails biz they growing so aggressively and still carry on now and somemore now they want to expand their refinery biz also.... im not those pro that able to see in details like those related mathematically and details numbers like that (like those 14b expansion la, right issue la etc la - im not a smart guy like u guys la).... for me la to be honest la... those guys sitting in the management or board they are really not stupid 1 lor.... they really know better than me (maybe not u all la)... they know what they are doing la... if u not trust the management, really la, dont invest in the company la.... for me i view it in business wise la, i think this move is good for petronm future... those things (for me is details la) like how to finance this project and stuff let them 9 tim la... the team surely make the best decision for this la (dai kor they hold 73% of share ler u think they wan petronm to die meh?).... they also no make noise me ikan bilis only haha....

also hor... fy2017 time is somehow consider a "good time" in terms of crack spread la (pls correct me if im wrong la)... so what if your backup plan la if crack spread die... now crude oil macam in good uptrend now.... personally i really dunno if can affect the next next 1q fy2018 result onot (the cost - apply the same for petronm as well)... as we all know... no need me to say... how volatile is crude oil can be lor....

so after all these.... how to hold hengyuan for long la.... sorry la i m no good i scare....tapi trading buy really good.... very good in earn short term money ler.... really nice to earn good pocket money de....

good luck ya all of us...