Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-03 23:10 | Report Abuse

Ok guys I will explain it this way......but first u have to understand what is overbought and oversell...
Firstly point 3 and other points can easily be mistaken if you read daily chart. Daily charts will missed the when exacly something happen....example when did did the price escalate to 64.5 fr 64....4.45pm? Second when did the volume happen?

But before we go there, understand this....for a counter that is not in the chase (not like Sumatec) when a marriage deal happens or a large volume is exchange in a single transaction, the price normally drop. Because transactions like this is base on seller's price. Even though it's a marriage or direct deal, it is done at a higher price match and still goes thru the system.

So coming back to overbought scenario is where the price match transaction is at buyers price. And we know buyers price is always lower except for pre-opening and closing avg TOP. Hence if buyer buys at their own price which is lower, they would want to sell it at a higher price right? Thus the overbought position is desirable as more buyers will be looking to sell higher later. The overbought give you the higher probability for the buyers who will become sellers to sell higher.

If the above is clear, my next point is the %. Most like to use the market determine 30% and 70% to determine oversell and overbought respectively however my point to monitor is at 55% onwards instead of 70% Reason being is 70% at an the end of trading days as oppose to build up fr 55% onwards toward overbought the following days ahead! will be more accurate

Hope that explains ....

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-03 23:57 | Report Abuse

What is a wining counter isn't one that goes up up up .....because those going up up up wil one day have to come down or remain stagnant right.....if that is the case, those ppl who buy this counter will depend on when and what stage they buy to ensure profit...a good look at Turbomech, is an example of a counter that went up up up for sometime but then the target for the buyers was the high dividen and then the counter went down down down after ex .....now really do you know this counter ? Do u know when it is going to move again?...

A winning counter is one that allows you to play the margin when it moves up but allow u the opportunity collect and to buy in and play the diffences again overtime. This however has to be supported by breaking new high each time. Now I know the name of L&G is not one synonymous with that in the past however they have proven by turning over a new leaf 5 years ago with Mayland in the helm.

I also agree that low gay Teck must do more marketing during this "turnover a new leaf period" and not rest on his laurels as he is doing now even though he is working hard to meet the numbers. A CEO who is just result orientated shud stay private and not be working for a public listed company!

Posted by Lonaldo Lo > 2014-09-04 07:54 | Report Abuse

Sinced 2007, chew family emerge as major shareholder by bought L@G around 8.35%, up to last year they managed to accumulate become 13.85% . Obviously, when the company turn good , it is vry difficult to accumulated the share unless with better offer price. That why had "iculs" with the excuse to raise money to buy putrajaya office for collect rental 5% which diversed it business and risk management. Wah, so lousy excuse. Anyway , by latest annual report, we know chew family in l n g mother share are 14.7% and warrant 48.5% accumulated, so this is real purposed for iculs which increase their shared . If they fully convert their La to mother share , i think almost can reach 40%.. try to imagine why a so bright future outlook share are undervalued? They had one obvious reason, big shareholders are accumulated their share quietly n press the price down. I guess only, their main purpose are takeover , that can be explain why this share price not moved.. good n smarter small share holder, don simply sold ur share, must had long run with major shareholders oh

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-04 10:04 | Report Abuse

L&G cannot afford to be wrong footed here. If they are targeting 1B market cap next years, investors will be looking at how they play this round.....my suggestion is leave the loan stock and let them do their normal conversion of 20% avg a year to complete the 5 years. Use the loan stock for next years target.
Note safety net is on the 13th......

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-04 10:14 | Report Abuse

Note it takes 8 to 10 days to convert to mother on normal days however at peak for dividen conversion I suggest 12 to 15 days which means today or tomorrow will be your last day to lodge conversion safely for dividen.

It also means that next week, the investors will be in for the play and the week of 15th will be full swing....

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-04 10:21 | Report Abuse

I will only be wrong at 69.5 MINIMUM.... if the L&G management screws up in the conversion.....

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-04 14:35 | Report Abuse

Remember tomorrow is the cutoff for the dividen for those intending to convert LA......otherwise you will be converting for no reason and may even enter you acct at the point after ex and the share may fall momentarily. So make ur choice wisely. If you intend to punt on this one,.....think hard of what I said earlier.

Posted by Shareholderz > 2014-09-04 14:45 | Report Abuse

can you further explain saturn? what ex date for tmr?

Posted by chloe_ts > 2014-09-04 14:45 | Report Abuse

Saturn, meaning to say tomorrow and onwards L&G-LA will drop?

Posted by chloe_ts > 2014-09-04 14:48 | Report Abuse

oh one more thing Saturn, are you accumulating Turbomech at this price? or you wait till next coming dividend play. :)

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-04 14:57 | Report Abuse

NO!.....I am not suggesting LA will drop. LA a has gone back to be dependent on mother as you can see the ratio has increased between mother and son.
So no point looking at son at this point and focus on mother. If we are looking at mother, the only thing that L&G can screw up is that they convert 40% of LA to mother which will dilute it tremendously. It will definitely pick up, but the investors will lose confidence at this play because the market cap is already achieved if base on the conversion rate which is avg 13Mil a mth vs 10Mil. Hence they don't need to convert the 40% and leave it for next year's 1b market cap....if it proceeds.

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-04 15:01 | Report Abuse

I doubt anyone would do such last minute conversion to get the Dividen and next week we should know as ppl in the collection office would know and this will be shared out.

Posted by Joel > 2014-09-04 16:34 | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1731049

Posted by Bongo > 2014-09-04 16:57 | Report Abuse

Yes 755Million - 598 = 157 .....just had anniversary of LA yesterday. 157/12= 13Million/mth conversion
So if take 157/598 = 26% conversion on anniversary. Expected 20% every year so it's quite near...

Saturn- Correct ahh?

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-04 17:31 | Report Abuse

I have written many times that prices of houses will not go down with the simple reason i have presented.

http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=itemlist&layout=category&task=category&id=13&Itemid=3

Posted by Tigerbeer > 2014-09-04 21:37 | Report Abuse

Haven't conversat my LA .. so no dividend for me la.. haiyo... sad..

Posted by Lonaldo Lo > 2014-09-04 22:06 | Report Abuse

It is not correct price of house will not drop. It still follow demand versus need theory.history teachus country as big as USA or China and as small as Singapore of housing price down, why reason very simple, over supply. Latest financial results of banking sector also drop, why? Housing sector sale are slow due to strictly loan approved. Why, banking is not government protected, they are doing business. They also know the risk management and try to more strictly on loan application. Few year ago, condo such as YTl are below 250k which husband n wife can buy each for rental or invest. Now min condo at least 500k , some property near mrt are 700sft to 900sft, for middle income family can afford one, but how about others, unless their income is increased a lot. Anyway, i don think so, even gst, material, land are going to increased, but trtransaction will be less cos buying power are weak, next year end will be tough year for investor n developer too...

Posted by vaentec > 2014-09-05 00:20 | Report Abuse

I think these things are expected in the industry. That's why it is called cyclical industry. But the main thing that we are looking at now is the characteristics of the company that is likely to stay the same without change of management. So far it has been a pleasant ride with the company. I think the managing director knows how to weather through this problem as he has been involved in this for so many years already. My assumption is that they have already prepared for the worst and that's why they went for loan stocks instead of conventional loans with interest. And also keep so much cash. Moreover, we won't know when the correction is going to come , so just stay invested. Fall in price is an opportunity to buy more, even it's net asset is worth more than 0.70 (without factoring in the appreciation of its 2000 acres land in ulu selangor. You have some margin of safety. I think everyone is interacting very intelligent here..keep it up :)

Posted by SaltnPepper > 2014-09-05 09:09 | Report Abuse

Low Gay Teck got no experience in loan stock conversion.....he will screw up. Run run....!!

Posted by SaltnPepper > 2014-09-05 09:10 | Report Abuse

He has never done this before and the dividen play also not working....run run

Posted by SaltnPepper > 2014-09-05 09:12 | Report Abuse

Think this....dividen coming and price going down.....must be scare

Posted by SaltnPepper > 2014-09-05 09:13 | Report Abuse

Sell...sell...run...run

Posted by SaltnPepper > 2014-09-05 09:57 | Report Abuse

Run now lor......no time...next week will drop to 60 and if breach 59, all he'll break loose

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-05 10:37 | Report Abuse

Watch watch watch...this is at a catch22 situation....as most know I like this situation best where the Seller vs. Buyer is at a stand still and neither giving in their position for the last 40 minutes.....at this point it is a punters game.
Let's see if the seller's believe that the dividen worth is stronger than the buyer's adamant to buy cheap and take a chance

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-05 10:52 | Report Abuse

It's a flatliner.....for 2hrs.....at avg 450kshrs/hr......r u ready to accept a decision?

Posted by bing > 2014-09-05 10:55 | Report Abuse

Very familiar to SaltnPepper language! Who is he?

Posted by optimouse > 2014-09-05 10:55 | Report Abuse

Wakakakaka..L&G already game over..saturn soo hai only stock..wakakakakaka

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-05 10:58 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha, that's wht they say abt EnO, Axiata, RHB,...and the list goes on.....game over game over....hahahaha

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-05 10:59 | Report Abuse

Then all of them did a 20%.....must be critics got power...

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-05 11:00 | Report Abuse

20% UP....

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-05 11:04 | Report Abuse

1cent to me at mother means 40k

Posted by lohboonsen > 2014-09-05 11:45 | Report Abuse

my 1 cent is 15 k for mother and son. game over price is 46 cents for mother and 36 cents for son. dun mind to hold for another 2 years..

Posted by bing > 2014-09-05 12:00 | Report Abuse

My 1 cent is only 1.03k sigh...

Posted by lohboonsen > 2014-09-05 12:22 | Report Abuse

bing.. your 1000 lots will become 100k RM soon. just be patience..

Posted by bing > 2014-09-05 12:25 | Report Abuse

lohboonsen, hopes so! 103k lots :)

Posted by bing > 2014-09-05 12:27 | Report Abuse

Not lots, share.

Posted by xcu843 > 2014-09-05 13:14 | Report Abuse

coming already

Posted by SaturnReturns > 2014-09-05 14:35 | Report Abuse

Be confident and stay focus!! ......I have given you pure stats in the past few days, given you the minimum and least price for mother and son.....given you the risk Managment side if it.....over and above that, you must decide. I m only showing you how the real investors think ...Instituitional investors do not think like us.
The stats is instituitional investors form 50% or so and the balance are made up of us and foreign investors......you can think of institutional as a stabilizing factor while foreign is second and the retail are the ones causing the ups and downs when it comes to this case. Institutional played play what we call overlapping......where they buy in threads and rotate amongst the thread. Example batch 1 the buy at x price and batch 2 at y price and so on. When their target is met, they will sell batch 1 while leaving the higher order to wait for TP.....so when batch 1 money is free they will wait for the price to fall or any other investment. In that way, they can do multiple earnings and manage the cyclical risk.
Now it's left to u and me.....you think they sell because market is falling however this play of market sentiment is more towards foreign investors.

Posted by Barbarian > 2014-09-05 14:58 | Report Abuse

Kekekeke....

Posted by vaentec > 2014-09-05 16:07 | Report Abuse

Omg. All big player here. 1 cent only 900 for me. And I have maxed out!

Posted by tksw > 2014-09-05 16:30 | Report Abuse

WOW. 1 cent = 900, a big player here.

Posted by ahson > 2014-09-05 16:52 | Report Abuse

1 cent only = 10 for me.. how sad TnT

Posted by kedclkoay > 2014-09-06 09:51 | Report Abuse

Hi SaturnReturns, why is the conversion price from son to mother of L&G is mentioned as 13 sen when the Star states as 26 sen , please advice?

On your 27th Aug posting your posting on "PP to offset GST and loan interest by hedging the PP partnership share " what does PP stands for ?

Thanks.

Posted by kedclkoay > 2014-09-06 10:52 | Report Abuse

Hi SaturnReturns, just checked The Star newspaper which still states that L&G- LA conversion price to mother share is 26 sen. Wonder why??

Posted by Tigerbeer > 2014-09-06 12:59 | Report Abuse

Aiyo.. 13 cents la...

Posted by Lollipot Anison > 2014-09-06 14:53 | Report Abuse

very hard to move because LA keep convert which dilute its EPS.

Posted by tkg8 > 2014-09-07 11:17 | Report Abuse

Lollipot, fully agreed with you. Every single cent movement would eventually be depressed by conversion of LA!

Posted by valueinvestor > 2014-09-07 13:00 | Report Abuse

https://scontent-a-kul.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/t1.0-9/10488294_343528125794821_5975927274080023051_n.jpg
More profit can be recognized in the next 4 quarters given the progress of its Foresta project.

Posted by valueinvestor > 2014-09-07 13:04 | Report Abuse

https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/t31.0-8/p960x960/10580739_773078459419789_159184375422603850_o.jpg

Posted by Lollipot Anison > 2014-09-07 13:08 | Report Abuse

everyday there's an announcement of conversion, but this is understandable since dividend is around the corner.