Posted by limkokthye > 2020-02-12 15:38 | Report Abuse

keong gan liao , hong leong =ho lland industries

Posted by ongkkh > 2020-02-27 08:07 | Report Abuse

Hello Kywoo, can comment on your view for the recent Qtr results?

Posted by shpg22 > 2020-02-27 13:51 | Report Abuse

Improvement in PBT was negated by the lower profit contribution from an associated company.

Good news is profit fr associate is improving QoQ.

Posted by kywoo > 2020-02-27 15:48 | Report Abuse

Can I have a deeper study on its financial statement and come back to you. On the whole I am quite happy with Hong Leong Ind performance although I wish their Vietnam market could have done better. When that market recovers, it's earnings will shoot up. It's cash holdings is 52% of company total assets.

Posted by RainT > 2020-02-27 20:48 | Report Abuse

@kywoo

please share your findings on recent quarter results here, thanks !

Posted by antoniomc27 > 2020-02-27 23:29 | Report Abuse

Vietnam associate once again disappoints. But FCF continues to be very strong and the cash pile keeps increasing. Chronically undervalued counter... I would say a good 40 sen dividend in next QR would stir up things... but after seeing FPI decent quarter and DY 6.5%+ have insignificant effect in the share price, I dont know what to expect anymore.

Posted by observatory > 2020-02-28 00:45 | Report Abuse

Any idea whether the Coronavirus outbreak poses supply chain disruption risk? Do parts supplied from Japan rely on China suppliers?

Posted by observatory > 2020-02-28 09:19 | Report Abuse

@antoniomc27
The share of profit in associate companies during the past 12 quarters are as follow (in thousands RM, starting from latest quarter):
21,957
6,512
9,894
23,133
33,061
24,783
24,383
26,005
38,430
32,825
25,020
40,604

On YoY basis, the contribution declined by 21,957/33,061 -1 = -34%. But if compared to the previous quarter, it seems to have turned the corner, although I have no idea whether this is just an aberration or a new trend. I'm also unclear whether the impact of the current epidemic on the Vietnam market.

I hope to hear from the rest who has followed this company for a long time.

Posted by sosfinance > 2020-03-01 15:38 | Report Abuse

market cap (net of cash) = RM2.8b, yearly cashflow estimates = RM400m. Associate in Vietnam, although non cash flow, likely to touch bottom. As for Malaysia, increase consumer demand is satisfactory.

Posted by RainT > 2020-03-02 15:13 | Report Abuse

In Vietnam all still need ride motorbike even have COVID

but COVID case in Vietnam is under control

Posted by Flintstones > 2020-03-04 17:43 | Report Abuse

This counter proves got cash and free cash flow does not mean you will make money

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2020-03-04 21:45 | Report Abuse

very easy to conclude in such market sentiment

Flintstones This counter proves got cash and free cash flow does not mean you will make money
04/03/2020 5:43 PM

Posted by RainT > 2020-03-05 16:11 | Report Abuse

I finished bullets to average down

shall stay sideway and watch how low it want go....

by then will add more

Posted by Rwkl > 2020-03-08 00:18 | Report Abuse

Hmm.... interesting. Can still load up despite bullets exhausted. Hope it’s not blanks

Posted by RainT > 2020-03-09 14:44 | Report Abuse

mega sales today

Posted by PuppyKitten > 2020-03-10 09:41 | Report Abuse

Picked up some dead chicken ^_^

Posted by SilverHawk > 2020-03-10 11:01 | Report Abuse

Charge up. Big katak puru

Posted by SilverHawk > 2020-03-11 00:41 | Report Abuse

2019 Malaysia motorcycle industry sales data : Yamaha market share 38% Honda 34%

Posted by kywoo > 2020-03-11 12:49 | Report Abuse

I was told it is about 45% and Honda 35%. Other brands together is 20%. This may be more correct. Yamaha eating into market shares at others expense last 3 years

Posted by SilverHawk > 2020-03-11 15:02 | Report Abuse

https://motorcyclesdata.com/2020/02/05/malaysia-motorcycles/

If based on above link, it is 38.XX % VS 34.XX %.

There is a few different version of data, I dunno which is correct. So, I need to based on those come with figure. HLIND chairman said of 40% to 50% market share of Yamaha in AGM. But I was not so convinced with the chairman the WIDE RANGE answer. Seems he also dun have exact figure in hand.

Posted by kywoo > 2020-03-11 16:25 | Report Abuse

The fact remains that Yamaha sales is growing double digit every year for last 4 years. That is very impressive. You can verify that from Annual Reports.

Posted by RainT > 2020-03-12 12:47 | Report Abuse

anybody collect more today?

Posted by limkokthye > 2020-03-12 16:35 | Report Abuse

holland industries

Posted by limkokthye > 2020-03-12 16:38 | Report Abuse

hong leong industries become holland industries

Posted by moven00 > 2020-03-12 16:38 | Report Abuse

Anybody collect more? Gila...duduk diam2 dulu la. Drama baru nak start, lu sudah mau pi toilet.

Posted by observatory > 2020-03-12 20:16 | Report Abuse

The Malaysia motorcycle data revealed in Annual Reports are Malaysia industry sales volume:

Fin Year Volume Growth
FY2019 573,000 16.0%
FY2018 493,966 4.4%
FY2017 473,000 10.0%
FY2016 430,000 -10.4%
FY2015 480,000 -13.8%
FY2014 556,680 -6.0%
FY2013 592,126

Apparently Malaysia volume last peaked in FY2013. Then it contracted for the next 3 years before growing again in the recent 3 years. So HLIND impressive sales in the last few years are helped by overall industry growth.

However, what I don't know is what has driven the national growth in the past 3 years, and what has contributed to its decline in years before. Note the swing in motorcycle sales is larger than vehicle sales.

Without understanding the past contributing factors, it's difficult to project whether the tailwind enjoys by the company in recent years will continue.

Posted by limkokthye > 2020-03-12 22:19 | Report Abuse

recession2020

Posted by limkokthye > 2020-03-12 22:29 | Report Abuse

keong gan liao recession , all stock become worthless

Posted by enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ > 2020-03-12 22:32 | Report Abuse

observatory,
Maybe the rise of GrabFood's popularity contributed to it? Or perhaps youngsters can't afford cars & opted for motorbikes?

Posted by limkokthye > 2020-03-13 08:45 | Report Abuse

run, cfm recession2020

Posted by RainT > 2020-03-14 16:47 | Report Abuse

manage to grab this gem at bargain price

meow...

Posted by observatory > 2020-03-16 18:08 | Report Abuse

@enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯, you might be right. Grabfood and the likes must have contributed to some of the volume. But I'm not sure by how much. Wonder if there is any industry data that we can refer?

Posted by observatory > 2020-03-16 18:15 | Report Abuse

The share price of HLIND has been solid until today. While the market panic, HLIND stock price remained firm. But today it dropped 15%. In contrast Oriental dropped about 3%.

It's unclear what might be the firm specific reason contributing to the sharp fall other than general market panic and pessimism over the economy.

What's the possibility that both active & passive fund managers who tracked the MSCI index did not fully dispose their holdings when HLIND was excluded from the index a few months ago, and are forced to dump now?

Posted by limkokthye > 2020-03-16 18:57 | Report Abuse

c liao, sell all the stock now

Posted by limkokthye > 2020-03-16 18:58 | Report Abuse

holland industries

Posted by RainT > 2020-03-16 20:24 | Report Abuse

down n down more

Posted by observatory > 2020-03-16 21:02 | Report Abuse

Today the closing price is RM6.78. I wonder what kind of scenario it has priced in. Factory and dealer shops' closure due to Covid-19 outbreak? Deep recession?

It's impossible to predict the bottom. But given HLIND's strong balance sheet, it should survive even a deep recession.

As of the lastest quarter, net cash is RM1,254m - RM32m = RM1,223m, or RM3.9 per share. FCF is RM1.6 per share. Even if it just breaks even this year, but recovers next year, I believe there is still a good margin of safety.

For long term investors, the dilemma may be prices for other stocks have also fallen a lot. It's hard to judge the relative attractiveness among them. But HLIND at current price seems quite attractive.

Posted by SilverHawk > 2020-03-16 21:08 | Report Abuse

Margin call force selling maybe the reason of desperate dumping

Posted by GooShem > 2020-03-16 21:11 | Report Abuse

lol

Posted by observatory > 2020-03-16 22:01 | Report Abuse

Speculators probably won't buy this stock on margin given its share price is slow-moving? May be fund managers need to dump the stock to meet redemption demand or raising cash to buy more attractive bargains?

Posted by shareinvestor88 > 2020-03-16 23:30 | Report Abuse

bye tp 2

Posted by SilverHawk > 2020-03-16 23:31 | Report Abuse

Margin call were based on Margin Of Finance ratio in the portfolio. Yes , there was margin call around few of my friend this few days. So , they need either top up cash or deplete some position on their portfolio ( They can choose to sell any counter in the portfolio to reduce finance amount ). MOF varies among bank. Some bank once reach MOF 55% u need top up or force sell. Some bank will tolerate till MOF 60%, 65% or even 70%.

But based on today's volume, more chance is : the fund desparate dumping. Most likely is foreign fund. A number of counters fall more than 10% include my babies aeoncr. Carlsberg Aji Heineken ... also fall more than ten percent. Banking sector also huge fall recently . There is nothing to do with FA. Some relate this to worsening of macro due to oil crash and covid 19 and even recession.

Dumping to meet redemption demand maybe is another factor.

In economics term, when supply of liquidity ( huge dumping ) is more than demand, price will fall, and vice versa.

If we are in zero margin, non FA related price fall is nothing to impact us immediately. We either just keep or top up. When time move , it's share price will come back.

If we are able to hold for years as long as the value still there or company is still growing, those months long issue shouldn't be a problem to us.

Posted by observatory > 2020-03-16 23:51 | Report Abuse

Agree. For long term investment, the focus should be on the fundamentals; that the company's long term prospect remains healthy and is not affected by current events.

Posted by RainT > 2020-03-18 11:11 | Report Abuse

@silverhawk

thanks for share insight

Posted by limkokthye > 2020-03-19 15:48 | Report Abuse

ho lland industries

Posted by Darius Tanz > 2020-03-31 08:59 | Report Abuse

Dividend is great, fundamentals great. I'm investing in hlind fr very long term.

https://netflyp.com/2020-dividend-growth-stocks-on-bursa-malaysia/

Posted by kywoo > 2020-04-01 09:51 | Report Abuse

I understand from dealers that there is a pent up demand for motorcycle in the country. As food delivery is getting very popular day by day the demand for motorcycle is increasing. As income level of the working class is expected to come down, people prefer motorcycle to cars to save cost. Car sale will be down and motorcycle sale will benefit. One can expect Yamaha bike sale to jump up in the coming months. That is good news for the company as 90% of company profit come from Motorcycle sales.

Posted by kywoo > 2020-04-01 09:58 | Report Abuse

For certain strange reasons motorcycle buyers in Malaysia prefer Yamaha bikes to other brands. That is why Yamaha captures about 51% of local market. On the other hand Vietnamese buyers prefer Honda bikes than any brand. Yamaha is trying hard to capture a higher share but find it an uphill task.

Posted by kywoo > 2020-04-01 10:08 | Report Abuse

Another good thing about company is that it can increase Yamaha bikes production by 30% to 40% without increasing capital expenditure on plant expansion and hence increasing cash inflow. One can expect the already bloated cash holding to increase even further in coming years. Company has to increase dividend payment substantially to contain growth of cash holding.

Posted by x3mg33 > 2020-04-01 15:33 | Report Abuse

Makes a lot of sense @kywoo hopefully with it’s strong cash flow the company is able to weather the storm