Posted by SilverHawk > 2020-09-06 16:47 | Report Abuse

FY 2021, EPS around 0.73 to 0.80, dividend wise will be at least 0.42. If EPS come at 7.50, Div 0.42 ( based on FY 2020 dividend amount on bad FY, more than 0.42 is a bonus ), current valuation is PE 10 DY 5.6, no way to fail.

Q4 FY 2020 should be the worst Q so far, and company should be able to avoid the Q4 performance again on economy reopening.

On Vietnam side, profit contrIbution around 40M to 60M is justifiable based on latest competitive environment, ie. strong Honda and new E bike. ( How effective is Yamaha turnaround plan is still unknown. )

On Malaysia side, to be safe, chop off 20% profit from past peak performance ( better performance than this will be a bonus )

One of the best timing to buy a good company is when they were hitted with TEMPORARY disaster !!

Posted by PuppyKitten > 2020-09-07 09:35 | Report Abuse

On company boardroom change and Hume Roofing Product discontinuation, here are some CLUES on future corporate direction :

1. Dato Jim Khor, previously HL Yamaha MD, now become Hlind MD.
2. Discontinuation on Hume Roofing product .

Seems HLIND will solely focus on Yamaha ONLY in very short future.

Industrial product run by Hume Cemboard and Hume Roofing Product. Hume Roofing Product now ceased operation. What about Hume Cemboard ?

Very likely will be stopped also, or to be sold to Hume Industries under QLC corporate exercise. Just wait patiently if this happened. If eventually sold, this will be a boost to company cash position.
With money losing business unit being sold / stopped, future dividend payout will be increased accordingly.

Dato Jim Khor , a key person on HL Yamaha Malaysia, now Hlind Group MD, a huge signal that group will be fully focus on Yamaha, and HLIND shall change its name to Hong Leong Yamaha Malaysia Bhd soon.

By the time come, HLIND will be valued as a consumer company with simple product, HOPEFULLY with PE more than 10, rather than a conglomerate with diversified business division, where such company always valued at a huge discount due to difficulty to value each business unit.

Posted by Snowpiercer > 2020-09-07 12:02 | Report Abuse

Don't forget, apart from Cemboard, there is this dying Guocera. From bad to worse

Posted by PuppyKitten > 2020-09-07 14:56 | Report Abuse

Deliberate dumping is over. Slowly back to its value ^

Posted by x3mg33 > 2020-09-08 09:02 | Report Abuse

@puppykitten....i agree on the new appointment of the GMD. the company has been flying on autopilot all these while, indicating that the company can still produced strong results without much stewardship.

I strongly hope with the new appointment will send an indication of more good things to come for this company. In yamaha we believe!

Posted by PuppyKitten > 2020-09-08 18:54 | Report Abuse

Share price completely manipulated.
Press down, side way, move up ...

Posted by PuppyKitten > 2020-09-12 18:47 | Report Abuse

I have ask around the consumer market and few motorcycle shop ( small shop ) this few days. I was told there is long waiting period to get new Yamaha stock.
1. Is there over demand in the market for Yamaha new bike ?
( On revenge purchase after MCO )
2. Is there any disruption on Yamaha production line ?

Can anyone closed to the market can provide this answer ?
My sampling size is small, so I not so sure of the response I get.

For furniture, electrical shop, I was told the demand is very encouraging, out of their expectation ( post MCO ) as revenge buying really happened. Another reason of huge jump in furniture and electrical product demand is due to cash grant from government.

If the cash grant and revenge purchase do really happen, next QR will be very good !!
For production disruption, I think that the chance is quite slim.
But anyhow, still need to find out the answer

Posted by ThePowerOfGlove > 2020-09-12 18:48 | Report Abuse

down 0.53%

Posted by ThePowerOfGlove > 2020-09-12 18:48 | Report Abuse

lagi tidor juga kah

Posted by ThePowerOfGlove > 2020-09-12 18:48 | Report Abuse

still hibernating juga kah

Posted by ThePowerOfGlove > 2020-09-12 18:48 | Report Abuse

apa daah

Posted by ThePowerOfGlove > 2020-09-12 18:49 | Report Abuse

dont know when going to move

Posted by ThePowerOfGlove > 2020-09-12 18:49 | Report Abuse

no idea

Posted by ThePowerOfGlove > 2020-09-12 18:49 | Report Abuse

no clue

Posted by x3mg33 > 2020-09-12 23:02 | Report Abuse

@puppykitten sales are picking up in most retail businesses as consumers are happy to spend on material purchases in the absence of travel plans and also impulse buying in these depressing times.
also not forgetting the governments initiative in sales tax exemption on motor vehicles to spur the purchases is timely and should see higher sales throughout the rest of the year.

HLYM has been launching new models lately, check out motomalaya on FB yo keep up with the motorcycle launches. What is lacking in the industry is the monthly sales report by names, similar to those done on cars. I can’t find this report crucial in gauging how well the demand for motorcycles and yamaha is in the market. I’m sure there’s such report but have exhausted searches in google and other motorcycle fan pages on FB.

Anyway, the Q2 results come november is the one to look for and to prove our guess in revenge buying is a reality!

Posted by RainT > 2020-09-12 23:27 | Report Abuse

@x3mg33

you have high confidence with HLIND uh

good...

Posted by PuppyKitten > 2020-09-13 09:13 | Report Abuse

Thks x3mg33.

https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/248165

From the link, we see very strong motorcycle sales in January February, but hit in March due to MCO.

May have seen recovery , and further increment in June.

I m still looking at July data, but same as u, find no where.

Will update again once I have the data on long waiting period.

Posted by PuppyKitten > 2020-09-13 09:20 | Report Abuse

https://www.motorcyclesdata.com/2020/07/25/malaysia-motorcycles/

Finally I found out that the data in this link are not so accurate .
Data between two link not matched.

Posted by x3mg33 > 2020-09-13 10:58 | Report Abuse

@puppykitten thanks for the data link, very useful.
i quote the part from the link .....’ In any case, over 60% of the market is in the hands of the two biggest Japanese companies, with the peculiarity that the market leader is Yamaha, not Honda.....’ speaks volume. I wish they have more of such reports available to investors.

@RainT....i have studied and learnt a lot from this company since I started investing in this company back in 2015 and have collected and held positions over the years. I’m no one...but just an ordinary investor who buys into the fundamental strength of what a company can deliver. One can see this through the financial statements. This company has always been shy from the crowd and refused coverage by analysts ( vice versa) due to it’s high price inelasticity. Not many people know of their core business, ie yamaha manufacturer and distributor, as many are still confused other industrial products, eg roofing and ceramic tiles. Therefore, I can only hope in time to come, company restructure exercise to spin-off the irrelevant segments of the company and concentrate on the core business of motorcycle.

Unfortunately the current market is fueled with noise and speculation, the KLSE index is no longer weighted by fundamentals but dominated by the healthcare and gloves sector. I can only be patient and ride through this episode like everyone else.

Posted by humongainz > 2020-09-13 20:07 | Report Abuse

actually well ran company

Posted by ykloh > 2020-09-13 20:21 | Report Abuse

Motorcycle is basic transportation for many. Will show far better resilience.

Posted by PuppyKitten > 2020-09-14 15:46 | Report Abuse

I just called Hong Leong Yamaha.
The answer provided to me is :
1. Production is normal, no disruption, with over time working.
2. Demand is good after MCO.

Posted by Snowpiercer > 2020-09-14 18:28 | Report Abuse

Non-Quek MDs are all puppet. The family is out of touch with manufacturing. Making billions in banking.

Posted by reloyee > 2020-09-14 18:52 | Report Abuse

from what i heard from yamaha dealers, the factories are facing production hiccups because of parts supply issues and social distancing in factory resulting in much lower production at least until this year end. this caused the market to have very limited yamaha motors, making the demand for yamaha motors very high because of limited supply

Posted by kywoo > 2020-09-14 19:11 | Report Abuse

I have done a rough estimate on the profit contribution from the various business sectors of the company for 2019 and 2020. I have to say I cant get 100% accuracy and that is because the company combines the motorcycle business with the ceramic business under consumer business in their financial reporting. It is totally unfair to minority shareholders and the financial reporting is not transparent. Luckily, because we have the 31% minority shareholding in the motorcycle subsidiary we can postulate the profit from the motorcycle business as a whole to the company.
2019 2020 % change
Net Profit to company RM409m RM239m - 42%
Contribution from local motorcycle sales RM273m RM233m - 15%
Contribution from Yamaha Vietnam RM90m RM40m - 56%
Contribution from others(mainly building materials) RM46m (RM34m) NA

So the biggest problem to the company is the building materials sector. Instead of making RM46 million in 2019, it now made a loss of RM34million in 2020. Hence there is a negative impact of RM80 million within 12 months.
Actually, the Vietnam operation is also very disappointing. In the last few years, their business and profits were growing steadily. Suddenly, in 2020 their business just gone down. I hope company will let us know the reasons in coming Annual Report.
The real jewel in the company's business is the local Yamaha motor cycle business. It is currently the market leader with about 42.8%(estimate) market share, hence overtaking Honda. It is still growing both in terms of volume and market share. I understand that their sales are very good in July and August this year because of pent up demand. Remember that there were no production and sales for more than 2 months during the MCO period. Total sales and profits from local motorbike business in coming financial year should be much better.
I really hope the company would be more transparent in their next annual report. Otherwise minority shareholders and potential investors will have to do a lot of guessing work.

Posted by SilverHawk > 2020-09-14 20:02 | Report Abuse

Kywoo, on last AGM, Mr Chairman said that they will expand the production capacity by 30%. Do u have the status on the expansion ?

If the expansion is completed, and still facing with tight supply, this is a very positive sign.

Posted by kywoo > 2020-09-15 14:14 | Report Abuse

Based on all previous annual reports I read I understand that the Yamaha factory has excess capacity to increase production by about 30%. I believe that factory has not reached 100% capacity yet. There is no harm to increase production capacity further to anticipate spike in future demand.

Posted by Sohai Trader > 2020-09-15 16:46 | Report Abuse

Good counter indeed, but the company should consider expanding their businesses with their ample cash in hand. THe companies have been doing a very good job in fortifying their cashflow and I am very impressed with that.

That being said, the company should actively looking for opportunities to expand their businesses, either by acquiring new profitable businesses or trim out those loss-making businesses.

I do have faith in the top management, will definitely find a chance to grill them during the AGM.

Posted by PuppyKitten > 2020-09-15 18:58 | Report Abuse

If 100% dividend payout, PE will easily shoot to 20 with DY 5%, same like carlsberg heim

Posted by PuppyKitten > 2020-09-22 15:20 | Report Abuse

Nanyang Siang Pau 20:/9
July Motorcycle sales 58K unit +5.5% yoy
August 51K unit . Almost same last year.

A robust quarter for coming QR !!

Posted by PuppyKitten > 2020-09-22 15:26 | Report Abuse

Expected profit level around 70M+ EPS more than 22 cents dividend should be able maintain 17 cents. With such QR, price will easily back to 8.++ Level

Posted by Snowpiercer > 2020-09-22 21:52 | Report Abuse

Get rid of Guocera and Cemboard. Otherwise, will continue to drag.

Posted by xgxgxg > 2020-09-22 23:02 | Report Abuse

@kywoo and @silverhawk by any chance do you know why is there so little institutional ownership on the company?

Posted by RainT > 2020-09-25 10:51 | Report Abuse

major 30% share holders already hold around 90% of shares

so how much inst shareholders can hold ....

major boss Quek Leng Chan hold a lot


its good thing actually

Posted by Onlylonely86 > 2020-09-27 09:26 | Report Abuse

Hi KY,

Thanks for the information. May I know where you get all those data?

Contribution from local motorcycle sales RM273m RM233m - 15%
Contribution from Yamaha Vietnam RM90m RM40m - 56%
Contribution from others(mainly building materials) RM46m (RM34m) NA

I've been searching the data but I'm not able to get it.
Appreciated if you could let me know.
And I'm impressed on your stock selection skills.

Posted by x3mg33 > 2020-09-27 12:35 | Report Abuse

@puppykitten thanks for sharing the motorcycle sales for august. please can you share the nanyang link here.

i did a search online on motorcycle sales and managed to find MASAAM which is the association for motorcycle production in malaysia. please see the link here for motorcycle production and domestic sales report across all makes. http://www.fami-motorcycle.org/databases/

I have tried to get report by make from MASAAM but did not get a response from them.

Posted by PuppyKitten > 2020-09-27 17:10 | Report Abuse

I read from hardcopy, can't get the link

Posted by PuppyKitten > 2020-09-27 19:22 | Report Abuse

复管期大反弹 摩托销量激增45% | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/729817

Here is the link. But only hardcopy newspaper show the figure

Posted by x3mg33 > 2020-09-27 20:02 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the info @puppykitten.

Posted by SilverHawk > 2020-09-28 10:30 | Report Abuse

Xgxgxg@ maybe low liquidity is the main factor. QLC related hold about 79% if i m not mistaken

Posted by xgxgxg > 2020-09-29 01:03 | Report Abuse

That is my concern because founder hold too much interest in HLIND. Although I am very confident in the management and company prospect. But since founder is holding so much stake in the company and the company is holding so much cash which prevent shariah compliant funds acquiring stake in the company, my concern is that founder might try to privatise the company as a whole like he did before. He is also famous for buying companies cheap, so we might not be able to wait until the company is valued fairly in the public market and forced to comply to the lower price he offer if he were to privatised it

Posted by xgxgxg > 2020-09-29 01:21 | Report Abuse

My hope is that the management is having plans on using their cash either through acquisition since YAMAHA is already a matured cash cow right now which will not grow significantly over the next 10 years since the industry growth is not big enough. There will be many chances in months to come after government supports on business stops. By then, HLIND should be able to identify good companies that is cheap for them to spend their money on. Or they can simply distribute more dividends to shareholders which will be great.

Posted by DreamCustodian > 2020-09-29 01:21 | Report Abuse

Up 1.08%

Posted by DreamCustodian > 2020-09-29 01:21 | Report Abuse

Okay also la

Posted by DreamCustodian > 2020-09-29 01:22 | Report Abuse

Boleh juga la

Posted by DreamCustodian > 2020-09-29 01:22 | Report Abuse

Very good

Posted by DreamCustodian > 2020-09-29 01:22 | Report Abuse

Excellent

Posted by DreamCustodian > 2020-09-29 01:22 | Report Abuse

Well done

Posted by DreamCustodian > 2020-09-29 01:23 | Report Abuse

Congratulations

Posted by DreamCustodian > 2020-09-29 01:23 | Report Abuse

Keep it up