xgxgxh@ I personally prefer company to spin off all other non Yamaha business, and fully focus on Yamaha. If so, dividend payout maybe will come to nearing 100%. Valuation in single business and full profit payout will be completely different from now. On acquisition, not so easy to get a good business. HL group good performing sector is only on Banking, Yamaha, Semiconductor. The rest is performing very badly.
Very well said SilverHawk. As far as Hong Leong Ind is concerned, just focus on the motorcycle business and dispose of all the building materials business. Too diversified a company is not necessary a good thing especially when company did not have a CEO for sometime. Furthermore be generous with dividend payout and the share price will fly.
I email Yamaha as shareholder and they reply me as customer. Below are the reply :
Dear Customer,
Thank you for contacting Hong Leong Yamaha Motor Sdn. Bhd.
Our customer demand are higher than our expectation.
The manufacturing team are working their best to meet these demands and our production is also depending on the supplies from all of our authorized vendor.
The average waiting time could be up to 2 or 3 month, differs by the location as well as the customer waiting list for each shop. You probably could also check on the customer waiting list with a respective shop.
We appreciate and thank you for your interest towards Yamaha Product Range.
If 309xx unit in Oct it is almost double of average monthly sales in 2020. Actually I'm expecting Q3 2020 result to be about the same but slightly lower than Q3 2019.
also to add, VN domestic sales (units) YOY Sept20 decreased by c.400 units (17%) from 2.3mil units from Sept 19. Considering a covid19 disruption, the decrease is well within acceptable terms.
Will the market crash if budget 2021 cannot be passed this coming Thursday (26/10/2020)? These are the 4 possible scenarios:
1. Parliament will be dissolved and a snap election will be called 2. A state of Emergency in the whole country will be declared by YDPA 3. Muhyiddin will resign and YDPA will appoint an interim PM 4. YDPA will appoint a new PM who has majority MPs support. A new budget 2021 also will be tabled by the new appointed PM.
Will the market go down? Will it crash? Take profit now or wait?
50M profit for the quarter. Seems market rumours on production disruption is valid. Management also highlighted production disruption due to global supply chain is a concern. I went for market visit days ago. About 40% of outlet have Yamaha ready stock now. 1. Production bqck to normal or company enlarged production capacity ? 2. The long waiting period is due to production disruption or over demand ? 3. Current ready stock and shorten waiting period is due to capacity expansion or demand softeness ? 4. Some customer swirched to Honda to avoid long waiting Q previously
On Vietnam, current quarter sales output is comparable to previous Q1 ( yoy ), just the profit was lower. We dunno y yamaha so successful previously but suddenly sank recently. Only what we know is Honda too dominant on most market.
For immediate future, Yamaha will still be underperforming in Vietnam. Just hope that situatuon will overturn in 6 to 12 months time under new CEO from india.
Moving forward, key things to expect from HLIND 1. Continue strengthen Malaysia Yamaha market. 2. Cost cutting measure on malaysia operation to boost profit ( we have seen good progress now ) 3. Fjrther discontinue loss making unit. 4. Increase dividend payout ratio on big cash.
# i missed the agm. Can anyone pls provide input on agm details. Thks
Note captured in AGM: 1. Going to launch new models in both Malaysia and Vietnam market and improve after-sale service to compete in the market. 2. Setting up e-commerce 3. There is a surge of demand for motorcycles from delivery services and switching from public transport to riding. 4. The purpose of the surge of investment in property, plant and equipment is for capacity expansion and development of new models.
@Pinky, HLIND management didnt explain in details. But I dont think majority will buy online without seeing the physical samples be it tiles or bikes. Probably they will view physical samples then buy online to get cheaper price. So i dont think e commerce for these commodities will create more demand.
https://shoponline.yamaha-motor.com.my/ they have started their online e-commerce store and they are not selling their motorcycles online because that will bring negative impact to their dealers. looking at their strategy, i think what they are focusing now is to make yamaha a lifestyle brand for bikers
In Oct, motorbike sales in Malaysia increases 14.5% by volume whereas production increases 17.6%. I think this strong demand will continue for coming months as people are trying to avoid public transport as the number of Covid 19 cases increases. A few months later when border re-open, there will be another spike of sales when suddenly many Malaysian worker in Singapore realize that their old bikes got lots of problem due to lack of maintenance in the past months.
In Nov, motorbike sales in Malaysia increases 3.5% by volume y-o-y whereas production increases 2.0% (all manufacturers included). If Dec sales could be as good as last year then HLIND EPS has a good chance to recover to RM 0.20 in Q2 FY2021.
Yamaha Vietnam not easy to turaround in short term. Other than Honda as biggest competitor, Vietnam local electric vehicle producer,Vinfast gaining momentum by capturing more than 100K unit market share vs Yamaha 470K unit sold in 2020.
HLINd profit now is nearly fully depends on Malaysia Motorcycle sales. Investing agenda now is with 1. Undervalued 2. Dividend play.
For growth prospect, need see how HLIND play the magic .
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
SilverHawk
93 posts
Posted by SilverHawk > 2020-09-29 09:39 | Report Abuse
xgxgxh@ I personally prefer company to spin off all other non Yamaha business, and fully focus on Yamaha. If so, dividend payout maybe will come to nearing 100%. Valuation in single business and full profit payout will be completely different from now.
On acquisition, not so easy to get a good business.
HL group good performing sector is only on Banking, Yamaha, Semiconductor. The rest is performing very badly.